Who should represent the Nats on the 2023 NL all-star team?

Each year since 2013, I’ve put together an NL All-Star Team to see which Nationals deserve to be selected. To avoid personal bias, the selections are made by formulas and based on wins above replacement (WAR). For the first time, this year there weren’t any Nationals players who qualified solely based on their statistics. However, because every team must be represented, I’ve also developed a method for selecting players from teams that otherwise wouldn’t have qualified.

My method is based on each player’s WAR for the current season (2023), last season (2022), and their whole career.* I give the most weight to the current season, but in contrast to many writers, I feel strongly that all-star selections should not just be based on statistics for the first three months of the season. For most players, that’s just too small a sample, and many of the worst All-Star team selections have gone to players who simply got hot in the early months of the season without demonstrating any persistent greatness.

* For the details of my method, see my post from last year, “Soto and Cruz make my 2022 NL All-Star Team.”

To cut to the chase, the player I’ve selected to represent the Nationals on the 2023 NL All-Star Team is Jeimer Candelario. A point total is calculated for each player based on the WAR statistics for the current season, last season, and his career. Candelario received 17.7 points, which is 69 percent of the point total for the last position player selected. The next best Nats position player was Lane Thomas with 12.7 points. I also did similar comparisons for the starting pitcher (Josiah Gray) and the relief pitcher (Hunter Harvey) with the most points—13.6 points for Gray and 6.2 points for Harvey. Relative to the last starting pitcher selected, Gray’s point total was 59%, and Harvey’s point total was 54% of the last relief pitcher’s. Based on this information, my method selected Candelario as the most qualified National for the All-Star team.

Here is my 2023 NL All-Star Team, with point totals in parentheses:

Starters

C – Sean Murphy – Braves (26.3)

1B – Freddie Freeman – Dodgers (33.9)

2B – Luis Arraez – Marlins (20.3)

3B – Nolan Arenado – Cardinals (26.6)

SS – Francisco Lindor – Mets (29.9)

OF – Mookie Betts – Dodgers (32.3)

CF – Brandon Nimmo – Mets (24.3)

OF – Ronald Acuna Jr. – Braves (31.2)

DH – Andrew McCutchen – Pirates (13.7)

SP – Clayton Kershaw – Dodgers (28.9)

Reserves

C – Will Smith – Dodgers (22.8)

1B – Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals (32.5)

2B – Nico Hoerner – Cubs (19.3)

3B – Manny Machado – Padres (25.7)

3B – Jeimer Candelario – Nationals (17.7) (*selected so the Nationals would be represented)

SS – Dansby Swanson – Cubs (29.6)

SS – Xander Bogaerts – Padres (25.8)

OF – Juan Soto – Padres (25.1)

CF – Michael Harris II – Braves (17.3)

OF – Corbin Carroll – Diamondbacks (23.8)

DH – Jorge Soler – Marlins (12.9)

SP – Zac Gallen – Diamondbacks (27.6)

SP – Justin Verlander – Mets (25.3)

SP – Marcus Stroman – Cubs (23.3)

SP – Sandy Alcantara – Marlins (23.2)

SP – Zack Wheeler – Phillies (23.1)

SP – Logan Webb – Giants (20.6) (*selected so the Giants would be represented)

RP – David Robertson – Mets (13.6)

RP – Alexis Diaz – Reds (13.2)

RP – Josh Hader – Padres (11.8)

RP – Devin Williams – Brewers (11.4)

RP – Daniel Bard – Rockies (10.0) (*selected so the Rockies would be represented)