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September 3, 2023 / Nat Anacostia

‘You have to be positive’: Nats’ August in review

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In August, the Nationals had their first monthly winning record, 17–11, since June 2021. Were they really a much-improved team? Their run differential (runs scored minus runs allowed) for the month was –15, which was not that different from earlier months in the year. That suggests that their overall offensive and defensive skills weren’t much changed. What had changed? They were winning lots of close games in the late innings. Their record in one-run games during the month was 10–2. But for games that weren’t close, they sometimes looked bad. If we define a blow-out as a game decided by 7 or more runs, the Nats were on the losing end in all four blow outs played this month.

Regardless, the wins will remain part of their record, and by late August the Nats had passed the Mets and moved out of the cellar of the NL East standings. They ended the month with a 62–73 record, 27 games behind the Braves, who held the best record in baseball.

The team’s roster was in flux during the month. Recall that Jeimer Candelario had been traded away at the end of July. In early August, the Nats also optioned the slumping Luis Garcia to Rochester, leaving both second and third bases open. Ildemaro Vargas initially took over at third, and Jake Alu was called up to play second. The Nats also released Corey Dickerson and called up Blake Rutherford, a 26-year-old left-handed outfielder, to take over Dickerson’s place as a platoon outfielder. Rutherford, a 2016 first-round draft pick for the Yankees who was later traded to the White Sox system, had disappointed in the higher minors and was signed by the Nats to a minor league contract after becoming a minor league free agent last winter. He made his major league debut on August 4.

In mid-month, Carter Kieboom was called up and began playing regularly at third base. He homered in his first MLB plate appearance in more than two years. On August 23, Stone Garrett suffered a fractured fibula in a tragic attempt to make a spectactular catch at the wall of Yankees Stadium, ending a remarkable season for the young outfielder. Rutherford was also optioned back to Rochester, and Alu began playing left field as needed. Jacob Young, a 24-year-old who was drafted by the Nats in 2021 in the 7th round, was called up and made his major league debut on August 26, and appears to have taken over the center field position. He can clearly field his position—we’ll see if he can hit better than Alex Call has. Also, 25-year-old catcher Drew Millas was called up and made his major league debut on August 28. Millas had been drafted by the Oakland A’s in 2019 and was acquired by the Nats as part of the 2021 trade deadline deal for Yan Gomes and Josh Harrison.

On the pitching side of things, early in the month the Nats claimed 27-year-old left-handed relief pitcher Robert Garcia off waivers from the Marlins. Garcia, age 27, had pitched one major league game for the Marlins before being let go on waivers as the Marlins became buyers at the trade deadline. By the end of the month, he had become the Nats’ go-to lefty in the bullpen. Joan Adon was called up to start a game while Trevor Williams was on bereavement leave. He pitched well in that game and stuck around, as the Nats decided to move to a six-man rotation in an effort to avoid over-extending the innings of their young pitchers. (A downside of the six-man rotation was cutting back to just seven relief pitchers, placing more burden on the bullpen, especially with the large number of close games.) In mid-August, Hunter Harvey returned from about a month on the injured list.

Early in the month, Paolo Espino was released. Espino had pitched 82 games (including 39 starts) for the Nats from 2020 to 2023. While not blessed with a great arm, from late 2020 through about June 2022 he was a reliable pitcher, making the most of the talents he did have until things went downhill for him in late 2022 and 2023. Later in the month, Carl Edwards Jr. suffered a setback in his attempt to return from the injured list when it was reported that he had a stress facture in his right scapula, shutting him down for the rest of the season. Finally, we learned that Stephen Strasburg has decided to announce his retirement, having never come back from his 2021 thoracic outlet surgery. From 2012 to 2019, Strasburg was regularly one of the best pitchers in baseball and, along with Ryan Zimmerman, was one of the long-time faces of the team.

The month opened with the Nats at home playing the last two games of a three-game series against the Brewers. They split the two games and having already won the first game, won the series. Their win in the third game was a ninth inning walk-off.

Next came a road trip to Cincinnati and Philadelphia. The Reds had swept the Nats in a four-game series in Washington in early July, but the Nats were able to pay them back by sweeping the three-game series against the Reds. The series against the Phillies was tougher, with the Nats losing three of four. The Nats’ only win, coming in the second game, was a come-from-behind one-run victory. In the third game, the Nats were no hit by Michael Lorenzen, a pitcher the Phillies had just acquired at the trade deadline. It was the first time the Nats had been no hit since moving to Washington. For the road trip as a whole, their record was 4–3.

Returning home, the Nats faced the Oakland A’s, who possessed the worst record in baseball. The Nats swept the three-game series, though the victories in the last two games were by one run apiece and came walk-off style in the ninth inning. The A’s were followed by the more formidable Red Sox, and the Nats were able to beat them two games to one. The home stand concluded with the Phillies, with the third game being the Little League Classic, which was played in Williamsport, Pennsylvania. (I count this as part of the home stand because the Nats were the home team.) The Nats took two games of three, though I note that their victories were each by margins of one run, whereas their loss was by a 9-run margin. For the home stand, the Nats were 7–2.

On their next road trip, they played the Yankees, Marlins, and Blue Jays. They took two games of three against the Bronx Bombers, though again each of the Nats’ wins were with one-run margins, whereas their loss was by an 8-run margin. In Miami, they took the first two games against the Marlins before losing the finale. (Prior to the series, the Nats record against the Marlins was 0–6). The road trip concluded in Toronto, where the Blue Jays took two games of three against the Nats. The Nats’ record on the road trip was 5–4. The month concluded with the Nats at home losing the opening game of a four-game series against the Marlins.

On August 21, Davey Martinez was reported to have agreed to a two-year extension as manager. Mike Rizzo was also reported to be in talks for a contract extension as general manager, though there was no announcement of an agreement before the end of the month.

Record:
17–11 (.607)

Pythagorean Record:
12–16 (4.29 R/G – 4.82 RA/G)

August MVP:

  • Jake Irvin (0–0, 2.35 RA/9, 4 GS, 23 IP, 8.6 K/9, .309 opp OBP, 1.0 RA9-WAR).

Position player of the month:

  • Keibert Ruiz (.311/.380/.533, 5 HR, 13 R, 16 RBI, 100 PA, 146 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR).

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Kyle Finnegan (2–0, 2.63 RA/9, 14 G, 13⅔ IP, 9.2 K/9, .291 opp OBP, 2.90 RE24, 8 shutdowns, 0 meltdowns, 0.5 RA9-WAR).

Worst month:

  • Cory Abbott (1–1, 18.69 RA/9, 3 G, 4⅓ IP, 12.5 K/9, .500 opp OBP, –0.6 RA9-WAR). After a dreadful meltdown in which he gave up 8 runs in an inning, Abbott was optioned back to Rochester.

Best start this month:

  • MacKenzie Gore (August 16, 6–2 win over the Red Sox at home) pitched 6⅓ shutout innings, giving up 1 hit and 2 walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 76. The Nats were ahead 2–0 when Gore was pulled from the game in the top of the seventh, but the Red Sox scored 2 in the top of the eighth to tie it, so Gore wasn’t credited with the win. The Nats scored 4 in the bottom of the 8th for the win.

Worst start:

A tie between

  • Joan Adon (August 18, 8–7 win over the Phillies at home) gave up 6 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings with 3 strikeouts for a game score of 27. The Nats came back in the bottom of the fourth and scored 6 runs to take back the lead, and the bullpen held onto it for 5 innings for the win.
  • Patrick Corbin (August 30, 7–0 loss to the Blue Jays in Toronto) gave up 6 runs on 10 hits and 1 walk in 5 innings with 5 strikeouts for a game score of 27.

Tough loss:

  • Trevor Williams (August 27, 2–1 loss to the Marlins in Miami) gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in 7 innings while striking out 5, for a game score of 62.

Cheap wins:

None

Biggest shutdown:

  • Andres Machado (August 4, 6–3 win over the Reds in Cincinnati). The game was tied at 3 runs apiece in the bottom of the ninth, and there were runners at first and second with one out when Machado got the call. He struck out Fairchild, then an intentional walk was issued to Elly de la Cruz, loading the bases. Machado then got Nick Senzel to line out to second, ending the inning (Win probability added/WPA +.218).

Worst meltdown:

  • Cory Abbott (August 19, 12–3 loss to the Phillies at home). The rest of the Nats bullpen was exhausted, so Abbott was called on to pitch the top of the eighth with the score tied 3 to 3, understanding that there was no one available to bail him out if he got into trouble. The first batter he faced, Trea Turner, hit a home run, giving the Phillies the lead. That was followed by a single, a ground out, three more singles (scoring two more runs), a walk to fill the bases, a sacrifice fly, a three-run home run, and finally another home run to Turner, before Abbottt finally got a strikeout to end the inning. He gave up a total of 8 runs on 7 hits (including 3 home runs) and a walk.  (WPA –.498).

Clutch hits:

Usually, I just report the hit with the most impact in terms of win probability added, but this time there were lots of late-inning clutch hits, and the one that happened to have the most win probability added was a bit anticlimactic (involving an error), so I thought I’d report a bunch of clutch hits.

  • Alex Call & Jeter Downs (August 13, 8–7 win over the A’s at home). The Nats were trailing 7–2 going into the bottom of the ninth, but after three singles, a sacrifice fly, and three walks, the score was 7–5 with the bases loaded and two outs when Alex Call came to bat. He hit a sharp grounder to shortstop that was booted, allowing the two runs to score and tying the game. (WPA +.462). The next batter, Jeter Downs, then singled in the winning run, capping a 6-run rally in the bottom of the ninth. (WPA +.365)
  • Joey Meneses (August 8, 5–4 win over the Phillies in Philadelphia). The game was tied in the top of the ninth with the bases empty and one out when Meneses went deep on Craig Kimbrel, giving the Nationals the lead. (WPA +.377). In the seventh inning, he had already hit a home run to tie the game.
  • Keibert Ruiz (August 12, 3–2 win over the A’s at home). Leading off the bottom of the ninth in a tie game, Ruiz launched a home run for the walk-off win. (WPA +.360)
  • Alex Call (August 24, 6–5 win over the Yankees in New York). Trailing 3–2 with two outs in the top of the seventh, Call hit a two-run home run to give the Nats the lead. (WPA +.416)
  • Jake Alu (August 26, 3–2 win over the Marlins in Miami) came to bat with the Nats trailing 2–1, two outs in the top of the ninth, and runners at first and second. He worked the count full and then hit a single up the middle to tie the game. (WPA +.359) A passed ball then allowed Michael Chavis to score the go-ahead run.

Choke:

  • Jacob Young (August 27, 2–1 loss to the Marlins in Miami). The Nats were trailing by a run, and there were runners on first and second with one out in the top of the ninth when Young came to bat, still looking for his first MLB hit. He grounded into a double play, ending the game. (WPA –.281)

Memorable fielding plays:

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Filed under Month in review