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June 3, 2024 / Nat Anacostia

‘You try to minimize damage as best you can’: Nats’ May in review

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The Nats opened May with a 14-15 record, in fourth place in the NL East, 5½ games behind the division-leading Braves. After going 12–15, they finished the month with a 26–30 record, in third place in the division, 13 games behind the division leading Phillies (who had gone 20–7 in May to supplant the Braves). The Nats’ pitching was surprisingly good, with a 3.45 team ERA during May (6th of 30 teams) and a 3.80 fielding independent pitching (FIP), which ranked 10th in MLB. Their offense, however, was weak. They ranked 27th in wRC+ with 84.

The Nats began the month in Texas, where they had already lost the first game of a three-game series against the defending World Series champions, the Rangers. They won game two 1–0, then were shutout 6–0 in the rubber game. The Nats returned from their road trip with a 5–2 record, having swept the Marlins in a four-game series to start the trip.

They began their next homestand playing the Blue Jays and took the series two games to one. The brief homestand concluded with a two-game “Battle of the Beltways” against the Orioles, who possessed the best record in the American League. The Nats won the first game 3–0, moving them above the .500 mark for the first time since July 1, 2021. They lost the second game 7–6 in a nail biter that saw the Nats rally to tie the game in the ninth inning and again in the 11th inning before finally falling to the O’s in the 12th.

The Nats opened their next road trip in Boston, where a 5–1 victory over the Red Sox again bumped them above .500. At that point, Fangraphs showed the Nats having a 1.7% chance of making it to the playoffs – a small but hopeful number for a team that had been given only a 0.2% chance at the beginning of the season. Alas, from there the trend was downhill. The Nats lost games two and three to the Red Sox. Moving on to Chicago, their first game against the White Sox was rained out, but they split a double header the next day before losing the third and final game. Their two losses in Chicago were both shutouts, with seven shutout innings in the first one coming at the hands of former Nat Erick Fedde, whose career had been rejuvenated by a year pitching in Korea. The road trip concluded in Philadelphia. The first two games were tight, with the Nats losing the first one 4–2 and the second 4–3 (in 10 innings). But the red-hot Phillies easily won the finale 11–5. In all, the Nats were 2–7 on the road trip and had dropped to 12½ games behind in the divisional race.

Back in Washington, the Nats faced the Twins. Their offense finally exploded in the first game, which they won 12–3, but they lost the second game just as decisively, 10–0. They also lost game three 3–2. They next faced the Mariners, who held first place in the AL West. The Nats took two games out of three, giving them a 3–3 record on their short homestand.

Going back on the road, the Nats played a four-game series in Atlanta. The Nats’ pitching did a great job holding the Atlanta offense at bay, limiting them to 9 runs over the series, which the Nats won three games to one. The month concluded with the Nats in Cleveland, where they lost the first game of a three-game set against the Guardians, who were in first place in the AL Central.

Four players who had been on the injured list at start of the month returned to the active roster during May. Robert Garcia and Victor Robles returned on May 7, Joey Gallo returned on May 17, and Lane Thomas returned on May 27. Robles did not impress on his return, hitting just .130/.222/.130 in 28 plate appearances during May, so when Thomas came off the injured list, Robles was designated for assignment to make room. On June 1, the Nats released Robles, ending a relationship that had begun almost 11 years earlier when a 16-year-old Robles had signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2013. In 8 seasons with the Nationals, Robles hit .236/.311/.356, with 31 home runs, 156 RBI, and an 80 wRC+ in 530 games. He never achieved the promise he had shown as a prospect, with the exception of the 2019 season when he played well as a 22-year-old rookie and helped the Nats win their championship.

Record:
12–15 (.444)

Pythagorean Record:
13–14 (3.89 R/G – 4.04 RA/G)

May MVP:

  • Trevor Williams (3-0, 2.40 RA/9, 6 GS, 30 IP, 8.4 K/9, .268 opp OBP, 1.2 RA9-WAR)

Position player of the month:

  • Eddie Rosario (.253/.319/.530, 6 HR, 17 R, 17 RBI, 6 SB, 0 CS, 92 PA, 139 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR). Rosario was named NL Player of the Week for the week of May 6 to 12, when he hit .467/.600/1.133 with 3 home runs, a double, 5 BB, 7 R, 5 RBI, and was 3 for 3 in SB in 5 games,

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Hunter Harvey (1-0, 1.84 RA/9, 14 G, 14⅔ IP, 9.2 K/9, .259 opp OBP, 5.98 RE24, 0.66 WPA, 8 shutdowns, 1 meltdown, 0.6 RA9-WAR)

Worst month:

  • CJ Abrams (.205/.216/.304, 2 HR, 10 R, 9 RBI, 1 SB, 2 CS, 116 PA, 43 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR). Last month, Abrams was the most valuable position player and Rosario had the worst month. This month, they saw their roles switch.

Best start this month:

  • Jake Irvin (May 28, 2–0 loss to the Braves in Atlanta) pitched 6 scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10 for a game score of 76. He left with the game still a scoreless tie, but Jacob Barnes gave up 2 runs for the loss.

Worst start:

  • Patrick Corbin (May 21, 10–0 loss to the Twins at home) gave up 8 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings with 3 strikeouts for a game score of 22.

Tough losses:

  • Jake Irvin (May 4, 6–3 loss to the Blue Jays at home) pitched 5 innings, giving up 4 unearned runs on 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4 for a game score of 52.
  • MacKenzie Gore (May 12, 3–2 loss to the Red Sox in Boston) pitched 6 innings, giving up 3 runs (1 of them unearned) on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9 for a game score of 57.
  • Jake Irvin (May 22, 3–2 loss to the Twins at home) pitched 6⅓ innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and no walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 61.
  • Patrick Corbin (May 31, 7–1 loss to the Guardians in Cleveland) pitched 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 54. He left the game with the Nats trailing 2 to 1, only to watch the bullpen surrender 5 more runs.

Cheap wins:

None

Biggest shutdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (May 8, 7–6 loss in 12 innings to the Orioles at home). The Nats had tied the game at 3 to 3 in the bottom of the 9th when Finnegan got the call to pitch the top of the 10th. He got a strikeout, walked the second batter, then got a pop-up and a groundout to keep the game scoreless, never letting the automatic runner advance beyond second base. (Win probability added/WPA +.314). Unfortunately, the Nats were also held scoreless in the bottom of the 10th. In the 11th, each team scored two runs, and in the 12th the Orioles were able to score two while the Nats only scored one.

Worst meltdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (May 18, 4–3 loss in 10 innings to the Phillies in Philadelphia). Going into the ninth inning, the game was tied at two runs apiece, but the Nats scored a run in the top of the ninth to take a 3 to 2 lead. In the bottom of the inning, Finnegan got two groundouts, leaving him one out away from the save, but then Kody Clemens hit a home run to tie the game. The next Philly batter reached on an error, then Finnegan got another groundout to get out of the inning with the game tied. The Nats failed to score in the top of the 10th, and Finnegan went back to the mound in the bottom of the 10th to try to keep the game tied. Finnegan issued an intentional walk to Kyle Schwarber, then Realmuto hit a fly ball that advanced the automatic runner to third. Bryce Harper then hit a sacrifice fly for the Phillies to win the game. (WPA –.478).

Walk off:

None

Clutch hits:

  • CJ Abrams (May 26, 9–5 loss to the Mariners at home). Abrams came to bat with two outs in the bottom of the seventh, runners on second and third, and the Nats trailing 4–2. Abrams launched one down the right field line and watched to see if it would go fair. It bounced off the foul pole to the fair side, and Abrams rounded the bases, with the Nats now holding a 5–4 lead. (WPA +.506) The lead did not hold up, though, as the bullpen surrendered a tying run in the top of the eighth and 4 more in the top of the ninth, for a 9–5 loss.
  • Luis Garcia, Jr. (May 3, 9–3 win over the Blue Jays at home). Garcia came in as a pinch hitter with no outs in the bottom of the seventh, runners on first and second, and the Nats trailing 3–1. He knocked one over the center field fence, and the Nats took a 4–3 lead. (WPA +.392) They would keep adding on for a 9–3 victory.

Choke:

  • Nick Senzel (May 8, 7–6 loss in 12 innings to the Orioles at home). Senzel came to bat with no outs in the bottom of the 12th with a runner at second and the Nats trailing 7–6. He struck out. (WPA –.165) After two more outs via fly balls, the Nats had lost, despite having rallied in both the ninth and the 11th innings to tie the game.

Memorable fielding plays:

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Filed under Month in review