‘This is a tough time for players’: Nats’ July in review

I regret my tardiness with this month-in-review post.

Entering July, the Nationals were 8th in the race for the 3 wild card slots and 4 games behind in the race for the last one. During July, they fell further back and became sellers on July 14 when they traded away Hunter Harvey. By the July 30 trade deadline, Jesse Winker, Lane Thomas, and Dylan Floro had also departed. The Nats ended up going 10–16 in July, their worst monthly record so far this season, and ended the month with a 49–60 record, 16½ games behind in the NL East race and 9 games behind in the race for the last wild card slot. In other words, any lingering playoff hopes had died by the end of July.

What went wrong this month? Hitting was not the main problem–the Nats’ OPS was .720 in July, up from .668 in the first three months, and runs per game was up from 4.1 to 4.7. But while the hitters did well on average, there were many games where they struggled—the Nats were shut out five times in July, with the last shutout coming from a no-hitter dealt by Dylan Cease.

The Nats’ main problem was pitching. It began with the starting pitching, which had been great in May and June when the starters’ ERA had been 3.62 and they had averaged 16.4 outs per game. In July, the starters’ ERA was 6.23 and they averaged only 14.8 outs per game. That put pressure on the relief staff, who were responsible for getting an average of 11.8 outs per game (up from 10.0 in May and June). The relievers performance also suffered, and their ERA went up from 4.01 in May and June to 5.08 in July.

Despite the poor results, most of the games (outside of a handful of blowouts) were competitive and exciting baseball, with a number of come-from-behind victories and losses.

July began with a four-game series at home against the Mets. The first game featured the debut of James Wood, the highly rated 6’7″ 21-year-old left-handed outfielder who came to the Nats in the 2022 Juan Soto trade. During July, Wood impressed us with his hard contact and base path speed even as he worked to adapt to major league pitching and playing left field, where he had little experience.

The first two games against the Mets both went to extra innings. And both games ended in losses for the Nats with the bullpen collapsing in the top of the 10th inning of each game. They allowed a total of 11 10th-inning runs in the two games. In the third game, the Nats came back from a 5-run deficit to win the game with Wood driving in the go-ahead run. And in the final game, the Nats won 1–0 behind Jake Irvin‘s masterful 8-inning start.

As the Nats turned to their next series—four games against the Cardinals—Josiah Gray was placed on the 60-day injured list and would undergo Tommy John surgery on July 24. The Nats were also clearing out roster space by letting go of veterans who had not performed. Eddie Rosario was released (and then signed by the Braves) to make space for Wood. Joey Meneses was optioned to Rochester and replaced by Juan Yepez, a 26-year-old right-handed minor league free agent who had played parts of two seasons for the Cardinals. Nick Senzel was released and replaced by Trey Lipscomb.

The Cardinals series began with another extra-inning game, a 7–6 loss in 11 innings. The Nats came back the next day to win a 14–6 blowout but lost the next two games, including a shutout loss in the final game. The Nats lost the series 3 games to 1 and were 3–5 over the homestand.

A road trip followed, beginning with three games against the Mets in New York. The Nats lost all three and were shut out and blown out in a 7–0 loss in the final game. They did better in the next series against the Brewers in Milwaukee, winning the first two games, with the second game featuring a come-from-behind effort, before losing the third game. Eduardo Salazar, a 26-year-old right-handed reliever who had 9 games experience with the Reds and Dodgers and had been selected off waivers, made his Nats debut during the series. The Nats went 2–4 on the road trip and were ready for the All-Star break.

Before the Milwaukee series had ended, some big news arrived that Hunter Harvey had been traded to the Kansas City Royals. Because Harvey was under team control through 2025, Mike Rizzo was able to negotiate a good return, with the Nats receiving 22-year-old third base prospect Cayden Wallace, who would be ranked as the Nats’ # 7 prospect by MLB Pipeline, as well as the Royals’ competitive balance pick in the upcoming draft (the # 39 overall pick), with which the Nats selected catcher, Caleb Lomavita. That draft selection was made after the Nats had used their regular first round pick (# 10 overall) to select shortstop, Seaver King. Their second-round pick (# 49 overall) went to another shortstop, Luke Dickerson.

At the All-Star game, the Nats were represented by CJ Abrams and Kyle Finnegan (who was an injury replacement added to the team less than 24 hours before the start of the game). Abrams struck out in his only plate appearance, and Finnegan didn’t appear in the game, as the National League lost 5 to 3.

Returning from the All-Star break, the Nats opened their homestand with a three-game series against the Reds. They swept the series, with the team rallying late to win the second and third games despite their game-2 starter having been knocked out early. Jose A. Ferrer was reinstated from 60-day injured list, where he had been since March with a left lat strain. Next came a three-game series against the Padres, which went very badly. The Nats were shut out in the first game, lost the second in a 12–3 blowout, and then were no-hit by Dylan Cease in the final game. Their record for the homestand was 3–3.

The month concluded with a road trip, with three games each in St. Louis and Phoenix. They won the first two games against the Cardinals, with their second victory coming as a 14–3 blowout, before getting walked off in the final game. Against the Diamondbacks, they lost a heartbreaker in the first game, as they entered the bottom of the ninth with an 8–4 lead but surrendered 5 runs for another walk-off loss. The second game was a disaster, a 17–0 blowout loss that set several team records. And the Diamondbacks concluded a sweep by beating the Nats 5–4 in a game in which the Nats tried to come back but ultimately fell short. They ended the road trip with a 2–4 record and ended the month with a four-game losing streak.

The end of the month coincided with the trade deadline. Jesse Winker went to the Mets, with the Nats obtaining in return a 24-year-old right-handed pitching prospect, Tyler Stuart, who now ranks 16th among Nats prospects. Alex Call was called up to take Winker’s place in the outfield. Lane Thomas, who was also under control through the end of 2025, was traded to the Guardians for three prospects, featuring 19-year-old left-handed pitcher, Alex Clemmey, who was a second-round pick in 2023. Clemmey is now ranked sixth among Nats prospects. The Nats also received a 19-year-old shortstop, Rafael Ramirez, Jr., who now ranks 22nd. Dylan Floro was traded to the Diamondbacks (and literally just had to walk over to the other clubhouse before the second game of the Nats-D’backs series) for a Triple-A infielder. Some followers of the team were surprised that Kyle Finnegan was not traded, though he still has another season-and-a-half left before he reaches free agency.

Record:

10–16 (.385)

Pythagorean Record:

9–17 (4.65 R/G – 6.15 RA/G)

July MVP:

• Luis Garcia, Jr (.333/.375/.573, 4 HR, 10 R, 15 RBI, 4 SB, 1 CS, 80 PA, 159 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR).

Pitcher of the month:

• DJ Herz (0-2, 4.50 RA/9, 4 GS, 20 IP, 11.7 K/9, .284 opp OBP, 0.3 RA9-WAR). He pitched well enough in 3 of his 4 starts that the team should have won with ordinary offensive and bullpen support, which is better than I can say for any of the other starters this month.

Relief pitcher of the month:

• Robert Garcia (2-1, 4.26 RA/9, 14 G, 12⅔ IP, 10.7 K/9, .275 opp OBP, 1.40 RE24, 5 shutdowns, 2 meltdowns, 0.1 RA9-WAR).

Worst month:

• Jordan Weems (0–0, 8.38 RA/9, 7 G, 9⅔ IP, 8.4 K/9, .431 opp OBP, –6.74 RE24, 0 shutdown, 3 meltdowns). On July 26 his terrible month came to an end when he went on the injured list with shin splints.

Best start this month:

• Jake Irvin (July 4, 1–0 win over the Mets at home) gave up 1 hit and 1 walk in 8 scoreless innings while striking out 8 for a game score of 87. That’s the highest game score by a Nats pitcher since August 31, 2019, when Stephen Strasburg had a game score of 92 after striking out 14 while giving up 2 hits and no walks in 8 scoreless innings in a 7–0 victory over the Marlins.

Worst start:

• Patrick Corbin (July 30, 17–0 loss to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix) gave up 11 runs on 13 hits in 3 innings with 3 strikeouts for a game score of –6. (At least he didn’t walk anyone!) That game set several Nationals records, including the most runs surrendered by a Nats pitcher (surpassing seven pitchers who were tied at 10 runs apiece) and the largest run deficit (surpassing a 16-run deficit in 24–8 loss to the Padres on July 16, 2021). Corbin’s game score of –6 is also the worst ever recorded by a Nats pitcher, passing Jeremy Guthrie who had a game score of –4 on April 8, 2017, when he gave up 10 runs in a start that only lasted ⅔ inning in what would be the final game of his career.

Tough losses:

• Mitchell Parker (July 8, 6–0 loss to the Cardinals at home) pitched 7 innings, giving up 2 runs (1 of which was unearned) on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 6 for a game score of 64.
• DJ Herz (July 23, 4–0 loss to the Padres at home) pitched 5 innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 for a game score of 51.
• Patrick Corbin (July 25, 3–0 loss to the Padres at home) pitched 7 innings, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 61. Corbin had the misfortune to be facing Dylan Cease, who dealt the Nats a no hitter, only the second time the Nats have been no hit.

Cheap wins:

• None

Biggest shutdown:

• Kyle Finnegan (July 13, 6–5 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee). By the end of the first inning, this game looked like another disaster for the Nats. Starter Mitchell Parker wasn’t able to make it through the first inning, and the Nats trailed 5–0. But for the next seven innings the bullpen kept the Brewers from scoring and the Nats offense gradually came back, finally taking a 6–5 lead in the top of the ninth. Finnegan got the call in the bottom of the ninth and got a fly out, gave up a walk, got a weak ground out fielded by the catcher, Keibert Ruiz, and closed the game with a fly out that Lane Thomas was able to corral at the wall. (Win probability added/WPA +.205).

Worst meltdown:

• Kyle Finnegan (July 29, 9–8 loss to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix). This game was sort of the opposite of the last one. The Nats scored 5 in the first inning and through 6 innings led 8–2. The Diamondbacks tacked on a couple more runs in the 7th and 8th, but the Nats held an 8–4 lead when Finnegan got the call in the bottom of the ninth. Finnegan gave up a triple, a single, and a home run to the first three batters he faced, and suddenly the lead was down to 8–7. He got an out on a line drive hit to center field but then gave up a single and faced Corbin Carroll with one out and a runner on first. Carroll socked Finnegan’s 0–1 pitch over the right field fence for a walk-off home run. (WPA –.981).

Walk off:

• None

Clutch hits:

• CJ Abrams (July 13, 6–5 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee). When Abrams came to bat with one out in the top of the ninth, the Nats were trailing 5–4 and Luis Garcia, Jr was at second base.  Abrams crushed a 99-mile-per-hour fastball into the second deck, giving the Nats the lead.  (WPA +.590)
• James Wood (July 21, 5–2 win over the Reds at home). The game was tied 2–2 with runners at first and second and two outs in the bottom of the eighth when Wood came to bat. Facing a lefty who was brought in to get him out, Wood launched the first pitch into the left-field seats for his second major league home run, giving the Nats a 5–2 lead. (WPA +.377)
• Jacob Young (July 26, 10–8 win over the Cardinals in St. Louis). With two outs in the top of the tenth, the bases were loaded, but the score was still 6–6 when Young came to bat. He drove a 2–0 pitch over the glove of the right fielder for a bases-clearing triple, giving the Nats a 9–6 lead (WPA +.547). They would go on to win 10–8.

Choke:

• Juan Yepez and Nasim Nuñez (July 5, 7–6 loss to the Cardinals at home). Going into extra innings tied 5–5, the Cardinals had scored one in the top of the tenth and the Nats had drawn even in the bottom of the inning. There was one out with Nasim Nuñez at second and Luis Garcia, Jr at first when Yepez came to bat. Nuñez and Garcia executed a double steal, seeming to have removed the threat of a double play. Alas, when Yepez lined out to the second baseman, Nuñez had wandered too far from third and was doubled off (WPA –.346). The Nats would lose the game 7–6 in the eleventh inning.

Memorable fielding plays:

• Jacob Young makes a sliding catch.
• Jacob Young makes another diving catch.
• CJ Abrams makes a leaping, diving catch.
• Lane Thomas made a leaping catch at the wall to end the game.