Harper, Murphy, Ramos, and Scherzer are my Nats 2016 All-Stars

Once again, we’re up to the deadline for all-star voting. Each year I put together an NL all-star team. For the last few years, I’ve used a systematic statistical method.

I won’t go through all the details of my methodology here (you can read another article if you’re interested), but the main idea is that I give weight to both this season and last season’s performance, plus a little bit of weight to career performance. I want to avoid selecting players who just hit a hot streak for three months. “Performance” includes defense. My method does allow an occasional exceptional player with limited playing time (for example, Corey Seager makes my team), but for the most part I’m looking for excellent play over the last year and a half.

Here’s my 2016 all-star team:

National League – Starters

C – Buster Posey – Giants

1B – Paul Goldschmidt – Diamondbacks

2B – Daniel Murphy – Nationals

3B – Nolan Arenado – Rockies

SS – Brandon Crawford – Giants

LF – Kris Bryant – Cubs

CF – Yoenis Cespedes – Mets

RF – Bryce Harper – Nationals

SP – Clayton Kershaw – Dodgers

Reserves

C – Jonathan Lucroy – Brewers

C – Wilson Ramos – Nationals

1B – Anthony Rizzo – Cubs

1B – Joey Votto – Reds

1B – Freddie Freeman – Braves

2B – Ben Zobrist – Cubs

3B – Matt Carpenter – Cardinals

SS – Corey Seager – Dodgers

OF – Marcell Ozuna – Marlins

OF – Jason Heyward – Cubs

OF – Dexter Fowler – Cubs – on DL, replaced by:

OF – Starling Marte – Pirates

OF – Gregory Polanco – Pirates

OF – Odubel Herrera – Phillies

SP – Jake Arrieta – Cubs

SP – Zack Greinke – Diamondbacks

SP – Johnny Cueto – Giants

SP – Jon Lester – Cubs

SP – Madison Bumgarner – Giants

SP – Max Scherzer – Nationals

SP – John Lackey – Cubs

RP – Kenley Jansen – Dodgers

RP – Jeurys Familia – Mets

RP – Hector Rondon – Cubs

RP – Fernando Rodney – Padres

RP – A.J. Ramos – Marlins

Freddie Freeman and Odubel Herrera make my team because of the requirement that every team be represented; my statistical system would have picked Brandon Belt and Andrew McCutchen ahead of them.

In terms of Nationals who were near misses, Stephen Strasburg came closest to making my team, though my system still would have picked Noah Syndergaard and Jose Fernandez ahead of him.