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October 6, 2023 / Nat Anacostia

‘To finish up with a victory’: Nats’ September in review

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After achieving an unusual winning record in August, the Nationals faced a much tougher schedule in September.* Eighteen of their 27 games would be against teams that would ultimately make the playoffs, with 15 of them coming against division winners. Capping it off, their last nine games would be seven games against the team with the best record in baseball—the Atlanta Braves—interspersed with two games against the team with the best record in the American League (the Orioles).

*(Note: For this post, I’m counting the final game of the regular season on October 1 in “September.”)

Ultimately, the Nats were unable to consistently win, as they ended the month with a 9–18 record and the season with a 71–91 record. That seasonal record did represent an improvement of 16 games from their 55–107 record the previous year. The Nats finished in last place in the NL East, but they trailed the Mets by just 3½ games and had better records than three other teams (the Rockies, Royals, and A’s) and the same record as the Cardinals.

The Nats opened September at home, having lost the first game of a four-game series against the Marlins. They went on to lose all of the other three games, including an 11-inning heartbreaker in Game 2 and a 9th-inning meltdown in Game 4. For the season, the Nats record against the Marlins was 2–11, and combined for the last two seasons it was 6–26. The Marlins literally would not have made the playoffs without their success against the Nats.

The homestand continued with a two-game series against the Mets. The Nats lost the first game (their sixth consecutive loss) but won the second game with a one-run walk-off to split the series. The homestand concluded with a three-game series against the Dodgers who held the second-best record in the NL. The Nats lost the first and third games but managed an 11-inning one-run walk-off win in Game 2. The Nats were 2–7 on the homestand. The Dodgers series seemed especially long as all three games included rain delays.

Next came a 7-game road trip to Pittsburgh and Milwaukee. The Nats won the first game against the Pirates but lost the next three. They also lost their first two games against the Central Division-champion Brewers (the second coming on a heartbreaking eighth inning grand slam by the Brew Crew) before finally eking out a one-run, 11th inning victory in their final game. The Nats’ record for the road trip was 2–5.

Returning home, the Nats had a three-game series against the lowly White Sox before finishing their home games with a series against the mighty Braves. The Nats lost the first game against the South Siders, then came from behind to win the second game by a single run (at this point, four of the Nats’ five wins in the month had come by one-run margins) before scoring 13 runs to win the third game in blowout fashion. The next night the Nats were blown out 10–3 by the Braves, which was followed by losses in Games 2 and 4, though the Nats won Game 3 by a single run. The Nats were 3–4 on their homestand.

The season concluded with two games in Baltimore against the Orioles and a three-game series in Atlanta against the Braves. The Nats lost the first game against the Orioles 1–0, with the only run coming on a leadoff home run in the bottom of the first. It was the third time that Nats had been shut out by the O’s in the three games they had played against their cross-league rivals. In the next game, the Nats finally managed to score a run, though they lost by a score of 5 to 1. Against the Braves, the Nats hit five home runs in the first game to win 10 to 6, then lost the second, but won the third game in a wild 10 to 9 back-and-forth contest, winning the series and ending the season with a W. In the final game, CJ Abrams set a Nationals record when he recorded his 47th stolen base, surpassing Trea Turner‘s old record of 46 set in 2017.

Looking at roster changes, on September 1 Travis Blankenhorn, a 27-year-old left fielder who had spent brief stints with the Twins and the Mets during 2020 to 2022, made his debut with the Nats with the expansion of the roster to 28 players. Blankenhorn had signed with the Nats during the off-season as a minor-league free agent. On September 6, Riley Adams suffered a fractured hamate bone on a foul ball, ending his season. On September 8, Luis Garcia returned to the Nats after a five-week demotion to Rochester. His batting record over the remainder of the season was somewhat improved over his pre-demotion record. On September 13, 24-year-old starting pitcher Jackson Rutledge made his major league debut, replacing  MacKenzie Gore in the starting rotation after Gore went on the injured list with a blister. Rutledge was the Nats’ first round draft pick in 2017 (no. 17 overall), Rutledge remained in the six-man rotation and made four starts during the month, with two of them going well and the other two not well.  Finally, on September 30 long-time Nat reliever Tanner Rainey made his first appearance since July 2022 as he returned from Tommy John surgery.

On September 13, the Nationals announced a multi-year extension of general manager Mike Rizzo‘s contract.

Finally, there were a couple of retirements. Sean Doolittle, who had split the season between the injured list and pitching in Rochester, announced his retirement. During his 5 seasons with the Nationals (2017–2020 and 2022), he pitched in 153 games with a 2.92 ERA and earned 75 saves. He was a key member of the 2019 World Series championship team as well as the 2017 divisional champions. He and his wife were outspoken advocates for the Washington DC community. Sean was given a nice ceremony at Nationals Park recognizing his career. Tyler Clippard‘s retirement announcement was made with less fanfare. He had been released by the Nationals in August 2022, but the Nats were his last team. Over 8 seasons with the Nats (2008–2014 and 2022) he pitched 418 games (a Nationals record) with a 2.72 ERA and earned 74 saves. If I were putting together a Nationals all-time all-star team, I’d select 2009–14 Clip as my relief ace.

The biggest story regarding retirements, however, was the surprising absence of a retirement announcement by Stephen Strasburg after widespread reports in late August that it would be coming on September 9. On September 8, Mark Lerner released a rather odd statement saying that there would not be a retirement announcement event, and while he praised Strasburg, he concluded the statement saying, “we look forward to seeing Stephen when we report to spring training.” Because it has been widely reported that Strasburg is no longer capable of pitching, the sentence about spring training seemed especially bizarre. Overall, the whole episode led to enormous amounts of speculation and can fairly be described as a public relations disaster for the team. I hope the team has not damaged its relationship with Strasburg. We did see a couple of nice appreciations of Strasburg, though, such as this one from Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post and this one from Michael Baumann of Fangraphs. (His not retiring contributes to an issue for the team in protecting their prospects, which I will discuss in an addendum at the end of this post.)

Record:
9–18 (.333)

Pythagorean Record:
10–17 (4.41 R/G – 5.81 RA/G)

September MVP:

  • Josiah Gray (1–2, 2.95 RA/9, 4 GS, 21⅓ IP, 9.7 K/9, .322 opp OBP, 0.8 RA9-WAR).

Position player of the month:

  • Jacob Young (.264/.330/.341, 0 HR, 8 R, 12 RBI, 12 SB, 0 CS, 103 PA, 86 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR). Ordinarily, I’d be skeptical of giving this award to a player with a below-average batting record based mostly on his excellence in base running and defense during his first full month in the majors. In this case, however, I’m making an exception. The handful of Nats players who hit better than Young this month (Luis Garcia, Ildemaro Vargas, Dominic Smith) didn’t hit that much better than him, and Young’s advantages in base running and defense were so apparent. Young’s arrival and quality of play have been a wonderful surprise, and I really hope that he can continue to hit well enough to allow us to continue to enjoy his base running and defense for years to come.

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Robert Garcia (2–2, 4.40 RA/9, 13 G, 13⅓ IP, 8.8 K/9, .357 opp OBP, 6.53 RE24, 0.77 WPA, 2 shutdowns, 1 meltdown, 0.1 RA9-WAR). Hunter Harvey (3.00 RA/9, 10.5 K/9, 7 shutdowns, 1 meltdown) is an honorable mention, but I gave the nod to Garcia reflecting his advantage in the RE24 and WPA statistics.

Worst month:

  • Trevor Williams (0–2, 13.17 RA/9, 4 G, 13⅔ IP, 7.9 K/9, .519 opp OBP, –0.8 RA9-WAR). He’s got another year left on his contract, but he really hasn’t looked good in the second half of this season.

Best start this month:

  • Josiah Gray (September 14, 2–0 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh) pitched 6⅓ innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and no walks while striking out 10 for a game score of 65. It’s hard to win when your team doesn’t score. This one also qualifies as a “tough loss” (see below).

Worst start:

  • Trevor Williams (September 2, 11–5 loss to the Marlins at home) gave up 9 runs (8 earned runs) on 12 hits and no walks in 4 innings with 3 strikeouts for a game score of 7. When he was pulled from the game, the Nats were trailing 9–1.

Tough losses:

  • Josiah Gray (September 14, 2–0 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh) pitched 6⅓ innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and no walks while striking out 10 for a game score of 65.
  • Josiah Gray (September 26, 1–0 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore) pitched 6 innings, giving up 1 run on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 63.

Cheap wins:

None

Biggest shutdown:

  • Robert Garcia (September 17, 2–1 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee). Patrick Corbin, Hunter Harvey, and Kyle Finnegan had combined to keep the Brewers to one run in nine innings, but Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers bullpen had likewise limited the Nats to one run. Garcia got the call to pitch the 10th and 11th innings. With the automatic runner, it’s really tough to keep the other team scoreless, but when the Nats didn’t score in the top of the 10th, Garcia had to keep the Brewers scoreless for two innings. The 10th inning was scary—after striking out the leadoff man, Garcia gave up a single and a walk to load the bases. But a groundball resulted in a force-out at home and was followed by another groundout that got him out of the 10th. With a one-run lead in the bottom of the 11th, the first batter Garcia faced sacrificed the automatic runner to third. The Nats then issued an intentional walk and Garcia got a 3–2 double play to secure the win.  (Win probability added/WPA +.760).

Worst meltdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (September 16, 9–5 loss to the Brewers in Milwaukee). With the game tied 5 to 5, Finnegan got the call with one out in the bottom of the 8th and the bases empty. He gave up a double and a single, then a groundout moved the runners to second and third with two outs. He walked the next batter to load the bases and then gave up a grand slam to Mark Canha. A fly out ended the inning, with the Nats left trailing 9 to 5. (WPA –.423).

Walk offs:

  • Jacob Young (September 6, 3–2 win over the Mets at home) came to bat with one out in the bottom of the ninth, the score tied at 2–2, and runners on second and third. He hit a ground ball single up the middle to drive in the winning run.
  • Michael Chavis (September  9, 7–6 win over the Dodgers in 11 innings at home) was the automatic runner in the bottom of the 11th. After a sacrifice bunt moved him to third, he was there with two outs when the Mets pitcher threw a wild pitch allowing him to race home.

Clutch hit:

  • Joey Meneses (September 19, 4–3 win over the White Sox at home). The Nats were trailing 2 to 1 when Joey came in as a pinch hitter with runners on first and third and two outs. He hammered a slider into the left field bullpen, giving the Nats a 4–2 lead. (WPA +.505).

Choke:

  • CJ Abrams (September 17, 2–1 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee). In the top of the eighth, the game was tied when Abrams came to bat with one out and runners on first and third. He grounded into a double play, ending the inning. (WPA –.250)
  • Lane Thomas (September 13, 7–6 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh). After 4 innings, the Nats were trailing 7–1, but they gradually clawed back, finally getting the score to 7–6 in the top of the ninth. Lane came to bat with two outs and the bases loaded. He gave it a big swing but flied out to deep center-right field. (WPA –.235)

Memorable fielding plays:

Addendum (the coming purge):

Every year, baseball teams have to release players or designate them for assignment to free up spots on the 40-man roster to protect prospects who will become eligible for the Rule 5 draft. This year, however, the Nats are in an unusual position with respect to the number of players who will need to be culled from their roster. During the offseason, the players who had been on the 60-day injured list have to go back on the 40-man roster. I believe the Nats ended the season with 7 men on the 60-day list, so that boosts their total to 47 players. Most seasons, the addition of the injured players to the roster is offset by the loss of the players who are moving on to free agency, but this year, I believe the Nats only have 1 player eligible for free agency (Carl Edwards, Jr.).

What this means is that the Nats will have to trade away, release, or DFA at least six players just to get down to 40 plus any additional players who will need to be released for however many new prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 draft. In other words, we’re going to be saying goodbye to a lot of players, including some whom I imagine the Nats would prefer to keep if they could.

If Strasburg’s retirement announcement had been able to go forward, my understanding is that it would have freed up his spot on the 40-man roster. With that spot not available, there’s one more player the team will have to cut loose.

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Filed under Month in review