Biding Time: The Nats’ 2023–2024 off season in review

Since winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals have been modest in their off-season aspirations. This year, that has been especially true.

New players acquired

Going into the off season, their areas of need were considered to be first base/DH, third base, left field, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They managed to acquire new personnel in each of these areas except for starting pitching. They signed three major league free agents—Joey Gallo, Dylan Floro, and Nick Senzel. They also selected four players who signed as minor league free agents—Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker, Matt Barnes, and Derek Law, and picked up Nasim Nuñez, a young infielder with no major league experience, in the Rule 5 draft, who will all be part of the team’s opening day roster.

Joey Gallo brings a left-handed bat and home-run power, two areas in which the Nats need to improve. Gallo is 30 years old and has mostly played corner outfield and first base. It looks like he will mostly play first base and DH for the Nats. He’s an extreme three-true-outcomes player who strikes out a ton, but when he doesn’t strike out, he manages to hit home runs and draw plenty of walks. Over 9 seasons with the Rangers, Yankees, Dodgers, and Twins, he’s played 863 games and hit .197/.323/.466 with 198 home runs, a 109 wRC+ and 15.7 fWAR. Unlike some other low-average sluggers such as Adam Dunn and Kyle Schwarber, Gallo has been an above average outfielder and at least average as a first baseman, which has helped him stick around with a batting average that has regularly dipped below the Mendoza line. Gallo’s last good season was 2021. He signed for $5 million plus incentives.

Dylan Floro is a 33-year-old relief pitcher who, over 8 seasons, has pitched 330 games for the Rays, Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Marlins, and Twins. He was consistently successful from 2018–2022 and has 32 career saves, having closed for a couple of seasons with Miami. His career ERA is 3.42 (124 ERA+) with a 3.09 career FIP. However, last season he struggled with a 4.76 ERA (though his FIP was 2.96). He signed for $2.25 million.

Nick Senzel is a 28-year-old utility player who mostly played outfield (especially center field) for the Reds but will play third base for the Nats. He was a first-round draft pick (second overall) in 2016 but struggled over 5 seasons with the Reds and was ultimately non-tendered, allowing the Nats to sign him. His career averages are .239/.302/.369 with 33 home runs in 377 games. His career wRC+ is 77 and he has –0.8 career fWAR. Both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs say that he’s been a below average fielder. Frankly, he’s never had a good season. He signed for $2 million and comes with another year of team control if the Nats decide to hold onto him.

Eddie Rosario joined the Nationals as a late non-roster invitee. He’s a 32-year-old left-handed left fielder and has 9 years of major league experience with the Twins, Indians/Guardians, and Braves. His career line is .268/.305/.460 and has 159 home runs in 1,030 games. His career wRC+ is 102 and he has 13.4 career WAR. He’s mostly been an average fielder. His last really good season was in 2020, though he had a really nice run the Braves in late 2021 after they acquired him at the trade deadline. He wound up being named the MVP of the NLCS that year. His contract pays him $2 million plus incentives.

Jesse Winker is a 30-year-old left-handed left fielder with 7 years of experience with the Reds, Mariners, and Brewers. Over 610 career games he hit .264/.369/.444 with 81 home runs. His career wRC+ is 121, his career fWAR is 6.4, and he’s been a below average fielder. His last really good season was 2021. Given that Rosario, Winker, and Gallo are all left-handed so you can’t platoon them*, it’s a bit odd that the Nats decided to hold onto all three. Given his age, I’d give the odds to Winker (over Rosario) as the player who might put up a season that’s worth something at the trade deadline.

*Though a left-field platoon with Stone Garrett becomes a possibility when he finishes his rehab from last season’s leg fracture.

Matt Barnes is a 33-year-old right-handed relief pitcher with 10 years of big-league experience (9 of them coming with the Red Sox before spending last season with the Marlins). He has 47 career saves, his career ERA is 4.13 (110 ERA+), and his career FIP is 3.62 in 453 career games. His last season was a rough one, missing quite a bit of time with a hip injury and earning only a 5.48 ERA in 24 games. But his FIP was 4.15, suggesting some bad luck, and this season he seems to be healthy.

Derek Law is another 33-year-old right-handed relief pitcher. He has 7 years experience with the Giants, Blue Jays, Twins, Tigers, and Reds. His career ERA is 4.08 (107 ERA+), and his career FIP is 4.24 in 247 games. Last season his ERA was 3.60 in 54 games with the Reds.

Nasim Nuñez is a 23-year-old infielder that the Nats picked up from the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft. He apparently is a gifted fielder and has mostly played shortstop. His highest previous level is Double-A, where he had a .627 OPS last season, so the consensus is that he isn’t really ready to hit major league pitching. That, of course, may be a problem because for the Nats to retain him, they need to keep him on the major league roster all season (or else offer him back to the Marlins). So, we can expect to see him as a pinch runner and defensive replacement but not getting many plate appearances. We’ll see if the Nats decide he’s worth keeping on the roster all season.

I don’t usually talk about changes to the coaching and front office staff, but I think it’s worth mentioning a couple of old Nats players. Gerardo Parra will be the first base coach, and Sean Doolittle is serving as the team’s pitching strategist, a newly created position in which he will be working with pitchers, coaches, and analytical staff.

Injuries

A couple of pitchers suffered injuries during spring training and will start the season on the 60-day injured list. Mason Thompson had to have his second Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire season. Jose A. Ferrer suffered an upper back strain (teres major muscle) that put him on the 60-day IL. From last season, Cade Cavalli continues his Tommy John recovery and also opens the season on the 60-day IL, with an expected return date of June. And Stone Garrett was able to play in spring training but is still recovering from last season’s broken leg and will start the season rehabbing in Florida.

Departures

We bid adieu to a number of players from last season’s team:

• Carl Edwards Jr. left via free agency and spent spring training with the Cubs as a non-roster invitee. He wasn’t selected and is currently a free agent. Over two seasons with the Nats he pitched in 89 games with a 3.07 ERA (133 ERA+) and 4 saves.
• Victor Arano elected free agency and remains a free agent. He pitched in 43 games for the Nats in 2022 with a 3.86 ERA but lost the entire 2023 season to injury that ultimately led to shoulder surgery in June.
• Michael Chavis was granted free agency and has signed on with the Mariners organization on a minor league contract. He played 48 games for the Nats last season with a .622 OPS.
• Hobie Harris was granted free agency and is now with the Twins organization on a minor league contract. He pitched in 16 games for the Nats last season with a 5.12 ERA.
• Blake Rutherford was granted free agency and apparently remains unsigned. He had a .366 OPS in 16 games with the Nats last season.
• Cory Abbott was granted free agency and is with the Mariners organization on a minor league contract. Over the last two seasons he pitched 38 games for the Nats, including 9 starts, and had a 5.87 ERA.
• Andres Machado was released by the Nationals and is now pitching for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan. Over three seasons with the Nats he had a 4.03 ERA in 135 games.
• Jeter Downs was lost to the Yankees on a waiver claim. He played 6 games for the Nats last year.
• Dominic Smith was granted free agency and spent spring training with the Cubs as a non-roster invitee. He wasn’t selected and is currently a free agent. He played 153 games for the Nats last season with a .692 OPS.
• Derek Hill was granted free agency and is now with the Rangers organization on a minor league contract. He played 13 games for the Nats last year with a .411 OPS.
• Anthony Banda elected free agency and is with the Guardians organization on a minor league contract. He pitched in 10 games for the Nats last year with a 6.43 ERA.