Which free agent pitchers should the Nationals consider for 2027?

The World Series is over, and we’ve all seen the value of superb pitching. Perhaps Paul Toboni‘s most important task this off season will be reconstructing the Nationals’ pitching staff to build a team that can reach and compete in the post season.

As I discussed in my last post, the Nationals will have to jettison quite a few players this off season to help protect top prospects and free up space for free agent signings. The Nats’ biggest need, obviously, is pitching, and that will be the focus of this post (though in my last post I also mentioned the possibility of signing a good left-handed batter to play first base or DH). These needs could, of course, be filled through trades as well as by free agents. For example, the Nats now have enough major-league-ready infielders that they might consider trading one or two of them for a relief pitcher. But this post will focus on the market for free-agent pitchers.

Barry Svrluga of The Athletic identified where the Nats need to spend money when he wrote that the Nats need to sign one good starting pitcher and two good relief pitchers. With Cade Cavalli, Connelly Early, and Andrew Alvarez, the Nats already have three good starters, but to compete for the playoffs, they will need a fourth starter who is better than Jake Irvin. In this post, I’ve looked through the list of available free-agent starters for pitchers who would represent a clear upgrade to Irvin.

For the bullpen, the Nats need to do more than just fill a hole. They need to upgrade the bullpen by finding at least two pitchers who can be trusted to serve as closers or set-up men in high leverage situations, both in the regular season and the post season. Using objective, predictive metrics, I’ve identified roughly about 40 free-agent pitchers who the Nats might consider signing to fill these needs. Some of these pitchers may not be suitable for reasons of health, contract issues, or specific pitching concerns that the analytical staff understand better than I do. But among these pitchers (or through pitchers acquired in trade), I hope the Nats will take the steps to address their pitching problems and finish building a team that is worthy of contending.

Metrics

As of about 10 years ago, it was widely recognized that fielding independent performance metrics, such as FIP (fielding independent pitching), xFIP (expected FIP), and SIERA (skill interactive ERA) do a better job of predictive future performance, as measured by ERA (earned run average), than ERA itself. Furthermore, among these measures, SIERA—which is mostly based on strikeout and walk rates, but also includes other performance statistics such as groundball rates, line drives, etc.—is the most accurate for predicting future performance. SIERA is designed to have a similar scale to ERA—so, for example, the average SIERA is about 4.20 for starting pitchers and about 3.90 for relief pitchers, with lower values indicating better performance.

In recent years, new metrics have been developed that shift the focus to the physical characteristics of each pitch, such as its velocity, release point, and horizontal and vertical movement. Fangraphs publishes several of these metrics, such as Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+. They’ve been shown be able to predict as well as the performance metrics like FIP and SIERA while being based on maybe half as many batters faced. That enables these metrics to sometimes pick up on changes in a pitcher’s delivery that occur within the season. I will focus on Pitching+, which incorporates characteristics of both the pitcher’s “stuff” and the location of his pitches. Pitching+ is scaled so that 100 represents an average pitcher, with 110 representing elite performance and 90 representing poor performance.

My reading of the research indicates that the new metrics should not be viewed as replacements for the older metrics but rather supplementary measures that should be used together with them (see, for example, this article by Eno Sarris in The Athletic.) While the two measures often tell a similar story, there are a substantial number of cases where they appear to be telling different stories. For purposes of projecting the player’s performance, it’s better to use an average of the two measures than to rely solely on either one.

Starting pitchers

I started by identifying potential free agents using this list from MLB.com. For quite a few players, whether they become free agents can depend on contractual issues, such as whether the club has an option and decides to exercise it, or if the player decides to exercise an opt-out clause. These decisions must be made by November 2, but until then the Fangraphs Free Agent Tracker does a pretty good job indicating which options are likely to be exercised. The names that I discuss below are listed by Fangraphs either as likely free agents or, in a few cases, as “tossups.”

For starting pitchers, I selected pitchers who met one of these two criteria: (1) Pitched at least 70 innings as a starter in 2026 with a Pitching+ of at least 98; or (2) Pitched at least 140 innings combined as a starter in 2025–26 with a SIERA below 4.30. I set these cut-offs slightly below the overall averages to encompass pitchers who would be considered, on average, to be #1, 2, or 3 starters. I used two seasons for SIERA and one season for Pitching+ to account for the fact that Pitching+ stabilizes faster than SIERA. I’ve listed the candidates in order of their Pitching+, but I would give roughly equal weight to their SIERA (and very little weight to their ERA). I also list each pitcher’s age next season, innings pitched in 2026 and in 2025-26 combined, and ERA in 2025-26.

Here are the candidates identified using these criteria:

• Tarik Skubal (age 30, 158.2 IP in 2026, 354.0 IP in ’25-26 2.44 ERA in ’25-26, 2.77 SIERA in ’25-26, 121 Pitching+ in ’26)
• Dustin May (29, 145.2, 278.0, 4.82, 4.22, 106)
• Trevor Rogers (29, 169.2, 279.1, 3.16, 3.82, 106)
• Nick Martinez (36, 180.0, 345.2, 3.75, 4.00, 104)
• Kevin Gausman (36, 177.2, 370.2, 4.03, 3.73, 104)
• Freddy Peralta (31, 169.0, 345.2, 3.54, 3.99, 104)
• Shota Imanaga (33, 174.1 319.0, 3.75, 3.91, 103)
• Sonny Gray (37, 109.0, 349,2 3.53, 3.58, 102)
• Tyler Mahle (32, 149.0, 235.2, 3.32, 4.23, 102)
• Matthew Boyd (36, 126.2, 306.1, 3.50, 4.25, 100)
• Max Scherzer (42, 84.2, 169.2, 5.46, 4.62, 99)
• Zac Gallen (31, 105.1, 297.1, 5.27, 4.53, 99)
• Erick Fedde (34, 141.0, 282.0, 4.66, 5.18, 99)
• Foster Griffin (31, 172.2, 172.2, 3.60, 3.88, 98)
• Chris Bassitt (38, 102.0, 272.1, 4.13, 4.23, 98)
• Michael King (32, 185.0, 258.1, 3.27, 4.27, 97)
• Michael Soroka (29, 116.0, 205.2, 3.89, 3.74, 96)
• Kris Bubic (29, 55.0, 171.1, 2.94, 3.96, 96)
• Casey Mize (30, 131.1, 280.1 4.08, 4.16, 96)
• Cal Quantrill (32, 110.0, 227.2, 4.51, 4.56, 96)
• David Peterson (31, 148.1, 317.0, 4.49, 4.16, 96)
• Jack Flaherty (31, 88.1, 249.1, 4.58, 3.83, 94)

For comparison, here are the same data for the Nats starters who pitched at least 70 innings in 2026:

• Connelly Early (25, 94.2, 114.0, 3.16, 3.72, 100)
• Cade Cavalli (28, 169.2, 218.1, 3.30, 3.40, 100)
• Andrew Alvarez (28, 112.2, 136.0, 3.24, 4.06, 99)
• Jake Irvin (30, 106.2, 286.2, 5.62, 4.67, 94)

I note that a few pitchers who show up on other lists of top free agents, such as Clay Holmes and Robbie Ray, did not reach either of my cut-offs.

In choosing among the free agents, various risks need to be considered. A number of these pitchers have a history of injuries, and judgment needs to be used regarding whether those injuries are likely to recur. Potential contract terms are also a source of risk. Signing a player to a one-year contract limits the down-side risk, while also limiting the up-side reward if the player performs well. Younger pitchers with a strong performance history will have to be signed to multi-year contracts, while older pitchers are often available on one-year deals. In that sense, an older pitcher may actually be “less risky” than a younger pitcher, who has to be signed to a longer-term deal. (Nats fans immediately think of Patrick Corbin, who pitched as expected in just the first year of his six-year contract.) In pointing to candidates, I am somewhat wary of long contracts for pitchers, and will point mostly to those who seem likely to require contracts of three years or fewer.

The starters from this list who impress me as potential targets for the Nationals include:

• Nick Martinez (RHP) – He has elite command and control, has been durable, and was an all-star this season. His main negative is that he doesn’t get very many strikeouts. At age 36, he can probably be obtained with a two-year contract; Jim Bowden’s estimated salary for him is two years for $48 million.
• Shota Imanaga (LHP) – He’s been reliable and has had good health. The negative is that he gives up quite a few home runs. At age 33, he will probably require a three-year contract; Bowden’s estimate is three years for $69 million.
• Foster Griffin (LHP) – We know him well. He had an elite first half, and his FIP remained good after the trade, but his ERA didn’t. He did pitch well in the playoffs. He looks less impressive by Pitching+ than he does by SIERA. Still, I’d be comfortable with the Nats pursuing him for a three-year deal; Bowden’s estimate is three years for $67 million.
• Tyler Mahle (RHP) – He struggled in the first half of the season but was very good after the trade to Atlanta. He’s experienced post-season success. The downsides are some injury history and vulnerability to home runs. At age 32, he will probably get a two- or three-year contract.
• Matthew Boyd (LHP) – He can be described as reliable middle-of-the-rotation depth. He has pitched pretty well over the last three seasons but was disappointing in this year’s wild card series. He had a couple of short stints on the injured list, and at age 36 is probably not getting more than a two-year contract.
• Dustin May (RHP) – His earned run average and WHIP weren’t good this season, but the predictive measures remained better than average. He was healthy this season after a career with multiple surgeries and has post-season experience. He might be worth taking a chance on if you can get him on a one-year deal.
• Sonny Gray (RHP) – His performance continues to defy his age. At age 37, he might be worth signing to a one- or two-year contract.

I’ll mention some of the names that I’m not recommending. Tarik Skubal is, of course, the superstar of this year’s free agent class, and being the only elite pitcher on the market is like to command an historic price. Bowden’s estimate is “anywhere from $350-$500 million depending on length of contract.” I’m quite confident that the Nats won’t be pursuing him. Trevor Rogers is likely to receive a qualifying offer, which means whoever signs him will have to give up draft picks and international signing bonus money. Bowden’s estimate for him is for three years at $64 million, but considering his age (29 next season) he will get a longer contract than that and will be above the Nats’ price range. Freddy Peralta is another pitcher I expect to be above the Nats price range (Bowden’s estimate is five years at $140 million). I didn’t list Nick Pivetta because I think the Padres will exercise their club option and retain him (even though Fangraphs lists him as a “tossup”). Michael King is expected to land a four-year, $118 million contract after an excellent year, but with his predictive stats much weaker than his ERA, signing him to a longish contract seems too risky. Casey Mize showed a troubling worsening of strikeout and walk rates after his mid-season trade to the Padres.

While I’m not recommending that the Nats sign Max Scherzer again, if you can pardon a digression I will tell you why I think it’s not a completely crazy idea. First, to be clear, if the Nats were to sign Scherzer, it should be in addition to signing one of the better pitchers that I’ve talked about. But for the fifth pitcher role, I think it could be argued that Scherzer, when healthy, is still a better pitcher than the other candidates for that role (Jake Irvin, DJ Herz, and Jackson Kent). The question would be could you sign him for a year and keep him healthy? If I did it, I would ask him to pitch just once a week and go for 80 pitches. If the opposing team has a lot of lefties, use an opener. Make Saturday evenings Scherzer’s regularly scheduled pitching night and see if it brings some of the fans of the 2015–2019 teams back to the park. Have a Max Scherzer Day and honor him. And ask him to mentor our younger pitchers like Cade Cavalli and Connelly Early. There’s a fifty-fifty chance that Max doesn’t stay healthy and the whole scheme goes badly, which is why I’m not recommending it. But if it worked out, I could see it being fun for the fans and great for the organization, which is why I’m arguing that it’s not an entirely crazy idea. Anyway, let’s move on to more serious thoughts about the bullpen.

Relief pitchers

For relievers I use the same two metrics but adjust the thresholds, noting that the performance standards for relievers in rate statistics are higher than those for starters. I selected pitchers who met one of these two criteria: (1) Pitched at least 30 innings as a reliever in 2026 with a Pitching+ of at least 104; or (2) Pitched at least 60 innings combined as a reliever in 2025–26 with a SIERA below 3.60. One other change from the previous list of statistics is that rather than show earned run average (which does a poor job of assigning responsibility for runs scored by inherited runners), I will show RE24 (which assigns the responsibility for inherited runners fairly). Over a season, the RE24 of the average pitcher of zero, while a good pitcher may record +10 RE24 (that is, prevent 10 additional runs compared to an average pitcher), while a poor pitcher may record –10 RE24.

In parentheses, the following statistics are shown:

(Age, Innings pitched (IP) in 2026, IP in 2025-26, RE24 in ’25-26, SIERA in ’25-26, Pitching+ in 2026)

• Adrian Morejon (28, 86.0, 159.2, 32.01, 2.78, 131)
• Jonathan Loáisiga (32, 67.0, 96.2, 11.10, 3.60, 124)
• Ryan Thompson (35, 40.2, 82.0, –5.92, 3.94, 117)
• Steven Okert (35, 67.2, 139.1, 30.29, 3.19, 115)
• José Alvarado (32, 58.1, 84.1, –9.17, 3.52, 114)
• Tim Hill (37, 58.2, 125.2, 14.86, 3.69, 113)
• Jojo Romero (30, 56.1, 117.1, 20.37, 3.78, 109)
• Caleb Thielbar (40, 50.0, 108.0, 10.91, 3.25, 109)
• Paul Sewald (37, 53.1, 73.0, –0.06, 4.06, 108)
• David Bednar (32, 69.1, 132.0, 26.79, 2.73, 107)
• A.J. Minter (33, 45.2, 56.2, 8.80, 3.39, 107)
• Alex Vesia (31, 58.0, 117.2 27.68, 3.19, 107)
• Kenley Jansen (39, 45.0, 104.0, 16.16, 3.93, 107)
• Antonio Senzatela (32, 73.1, 203.1, –24.06, 4.79, 106)
• Kevin Ginkel (33, 67.2, 93.1, –3.36, 3.36, 105)
• Pete Fairbanks (33, 41.1, 101.2, 1.79, 3.41, 104)
• Aaron Civale (32, 111.1, 213.1, ####, 4.48, 103)
• Raisel Iglesias (37, 60.0, 127.1, 19.02, 3.15, 100)
• Andrew Kittredge (37, 48.1, 101.1, –0.13, 3.12, 99)
• Gregory Soto (32, 67.0, 127.1, –3.72, 3.44, 99)
• Emilio Pagán (36, 42.2, 111.1, 21.03, 3.31, 95)
• Mark Leiter Jr. (36, 33.2, 82.0, –11.76, 3.34, 94)
• Bryan Abreu (30, 62.2, 133.2 18.03, 3.25, 89)

Here are the pitchers that I’d suggest that the Nats pursue:

• JoJo Romero (LHP) – A set-up man with a good post-season record and elite left-handed velocity. He had an emergency appendectomy this season and Tommy John surgery in 2021 but now seems pretty healthy. At age 30, he might get a three-year contract.
• Alex Vesia (LHP) – He features elite four-seam vertical break and a high whiff rate. He’s been consistent while used in high-leverage spots and has post-season experience. He gives up more walks than you’d like. At age 31, Bowden’s estimate is a two-year contract at $23 million.
• Kevin Ginkel (RHP) – A workhorse, he features excellent control and a pretty good strikeout rate. Though never a closer, he’s still accumulated 19 career saves while serving as a set-up man. At age 33, he’s likely to get a two-year contract.
• Jonathan Loáisiga (RHP) – He’s a ground-ball pitcher and has mostly been used in middle innings rather than in high leverage spots. His Pitching+ (124) is elite, though. He has some history of injuries. At age 32, Bowden’s estimate is a two-year, $20 million deal.
• Steven Okert (LHP) – He had an excellent 2026 season. He’s a flyball pitcher and can be susceptible to giving up a home run. He’s most successful when facing lefties. At age 35, he may get a one- or two-year contract.
• Antonio Senzatela (RHP) – It’s not clear yet whether the Brewers will exercise their club option. If they don’t, he’s a pitcher who was a mediocre starter with the Rockies and improved after making the move to the bullpen. His strikeout rate is modest, but he gets a lot of ground balls. At 32, he’s young enough that he might get a two-year contract.
• Caleb Thielbar (LHP) – At age 40, he still has an excellent strikeout rate and is great against lefties. He had a left hamstring strain this season that may deserve some caution. His ERA and WHIP rose in 2026, though his predictive statistics remain good. Could be considered for a one-year contract.
• Aaron Civale (RHP) – He switched to the bullpen after his mid-season trade to the Cubs and thrived there, so I’ve listed him as a reliever. He has a good curveball and sweeper and has good control. He’s somewhat prone to giving up home runs. He should be available for a one-year contract.

I’ll briefly mention a few relief pitchers I did not recommend. Adrian Morejon is sort of the Tarik Skubal of relief pitchers, and I expect him to command a four- or five-year contract of perhaps $18 million per year. Also, the Padres will probably give him a qualifying offer, which means he will cost draft picks. I don’t expect the Nats to be able to sign him, though he’s clearly the best of this year’s relievers. David Bednar is also expected to command a high price (and might also get a qualifying offer). While he’s been a wonderful pitcher in the past, I fear that whoever signs him to a three- or four-year contract may wind up overpaying. Kanley Jansen, at age 39, has seen some drop in velocity and an increase in walk rate. Several others have had health issues that make me wary.

For comparison, here are Nats relievers with at least 30 innings pitched in 2026:

• Will Dion (27, 49.2, 49.2, 2.63, 3.34, 112)
• Orlando Ribalta (29, 43.0, 67.1, 4.99, 4.29, 107)
• Jake Bird (31, 38.2, 94.0, –12.17, 3.49, 104)
• Gus Varland (30, 33.0, 33.0, –10.48, 4.37, 103)
• Mitchell Parker (27, 39.2, 204.1, –43.10, 4.98, 96)
• Paxton Schultz (29, 32.1, 57.0, –8.21, 3.76, 95)
• Clayton Beeter (28, 48.0, 73.1, –1.54, 4.42, 90)
• Brad Lord (27, 83.1, 214.0, 3.28, 4.00, 89)
• Richard Lovelady (31, 35.0, 46.2, –10.43, 4.81, 88)
• PJ Poulin (30, 36.2 61.1, 4.00, 4.78, 88)

In closing, the important thing is not whether the Nationals follow these suggestions—after all, they have much better data and analytical talent than I have. The main idea is that I really want this team to start spending some money to fix its problems and build the kind of team that we as fans will want to support.