For the first three weeks of July, the Nats regulars were all healthy and the team played really well, going 11–5. After Ryan Zimmerman suffered a “Grade 3” hamstring on July 22, however, and went on the disabled list, the Nats finished the month 3–5. Nevertheless, the Nats’ 14–10 record for the month allowed them to take the lead in the division from the Braves. The Nats finished the month with a 58–48 record, 1-1/2 games ahead of the Braves and 6 games ahead of the Marlins.
The Nats’ began the month at home, finishing the final 2 games of a series against the Rockies. They won both games. The Cubs then came to town, and the Nats took 2 of 3. Next the played one game at home against the Orioles, which they lost; the other game was rained out. Then they moved to Baltimore to play 2 more games and split that series. Next they then traveled to Philadelphia, where they took 2 of 3 against the Phillies just before the All Star break.
Initially only one Nat was selected to the All Star team, Jordan Zimmermann, but he dropped out after suffering a bicep strain in his last outing before the game. Tyler Clippard was named to the All Star team as a replacement player. In the game, he faced 2 batters and retired both of them. Fortunately, Zimmermann’s bicep strain was not serious and he avoided a trip to the DL.
After the break, the Nats opened with a series against the Brewers at home, which they won, 2 games to 1. Next came a road trip that started in Denver against the Rockies and then moved on to Cincinnati. The Nats took 2 games of 3 against both the Rockies and the Reds. The game they lost in Cincinnati was an epic pitching duel between Johnny Cueto and Gio Gonzalez, which the Nats lost by the score of 1–0. They finished the road trip in Miami, where the Nats gave up a 6–0 lead in the opener, as the bullpen imploded and the Marlins won 7–6 in the bottom of the ninth. They also lost the second game, before avoiding a sweep by winning the final game. The last game of the month was at home against the Phillies, and the Nats lost 10–4. The Nats also ended the month with a trade deadline deal of Zach Walters for Asdrubal Cabrera, giving the Nats an infielder who could play second base while Zimmerman is out.
With the full lineup intact for the first three weeks, the team’s offense improved in July. The Nats were tied for 3rd in the National League in runs scored in July with 111 and 4th in weighted runs created relative to league (wRC+) with 103 (that is, they created 3% more runs than the average team, taking account of park effects and quality of the league).
The starting pitching continued to be excellent. The starters’ ERA– (earned run average adjusted for park and league quality) was 83 in July (that is, 17% better than average), the second best in the NL. On the other hand, the relievers’ ERA– was 130 in July, which was next-to-last in the NL, but their fielding independent pitching (FIP–) of 89 was a more respectable 6th in the NL.
Record:
14-10 (.583)
Pythagorean Record:
15-9 (4.63 R/G – 3.67 RA/G)
Playoff odds at the end of the month:
Baseball Prospectus: 74.8% for Division championship, 85.5% for playoffs
FanGraphs (projection mode): 78.2% for Division, 90.8% for playoffs
FanGraphs (season-to-date mode): 67.4% for Division, 80.8% for playoffs
July MVP:
Jayson Werth (.337/.446/.687, 24 G, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 1.6 fWAR).
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Tanner Roark (4-1, 2.06 RA/9, 5 G, 35 IP, 6.4 H/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 rWAR).
Most valuable relief pitcher:
Tyler Clippard (1-0, 1.00 RA/9, 9 G, 9 IP, 7.0 H/9, 12.0 K/9, 3.13 RE24, 0.4 rWAR).
Worst month:
Adam LaRoche (.159/ .238/ .227, 24 G, 1 HR, –0.9 fWAR).
Best start this month:
Gio Gonzalez (July 5, 13–0 win over the Cubs in Washington) pitched 8 scoreless innings, giving up only 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7, for a game score of 80.
Worst start:
Gio Gonzalez (July 31, 10–4 loss to the Phillies in Washington) gave up 8 hits, 5 runs, and 1 walk in 3-2/3 innings, while getting 2 K and a game score of 26.
Tough losses:
- Gio Gonzalez (July 10, 4–3 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore) gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits and 3 walks with 7 strikeouts in 6-2/3 innings (game score 52).
- Stephen Strasburg (July 18, 4–2 loss to the Brewers in Washington) gave up 4 runs on 7 hits and 1 walk with 9 strikeouts in 7 innings (game score 55).
- Gio Gonzalez (July 26, 1–0 loss to the Reds in Cincinnati) gave up 1 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks with 8 strikeouts in 7 innings (game score 71).
- Stephen Strasburg (July 29, 3–0 loss to the Marlins in Miami) gave up 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts in 7 innings (game score 67).
Cheap win:
- Doug Fister (July 21, 7–2 win over the Rockies in Colorado) gave up 2 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts in 5-2/3 innings (game score 45).
Best shutdown:
Rafael Soriano (July 6, 2–1 win over the Cubs at home) pitched the 9th inning in a one-run ball game. He faced Ruggiano, Rizzo, and Castro and retired them in order for the save. (Win probability added .151).
Worst meltdown:
Rafael Soriano (July 28, 7–6 loss to the Marlins in Miami). Soriano entered the 9th with a 6–3 lead. McGehee led off and Soriano walked him, then gave up a double to Jones and a single to Ozuna (scoring McGehee). Saltalamacchia hit a sacrifice fly for the first run, scoring Jones and making it a one-run game. After a wild pitch advanced Ozuna to second, Hechevarria hit a triple to tie the game. Soriano then hit the next batter, Solano, and was finally lifted from the game with only one out, the score tied, and runners on first and third (Win probability added –.784) Jerry Blevins came in and struck out Yelich before giving up the walk-off hit to Jeff Baker.
Clutch hit:
Jayson Werth (July 20, 5–4 win over the Brewers in Washington). With 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, the score was tied 4–4 and Anthony Rendon was on first when Werth came to bat. Werth lined a double down the left field line, driving in Rendon for the walk-off win (WPA .440).
Choke:
Ian Desmond (July 26, 1–0 loss to the Reds in Cincinnati). In the top of the 9th, Desmond was on first base, having led off the inning with a walk, when he attempted to steal second. He was thrown out, killing the Nats’ effort to mount a rally against Aroldis Chapman (WPA –.182).
I like the Zach Walters for Asdrubal Cabrera trade deadline deal. I agree with Eno Sarris of FanGraphs—the Nats got a small but clear improvement for the rest of this season in exchange for a player who, because of his poor strikeout-to-walk ratio, has only a small chance of having significant major league value. Walters’ skill set was similar to that of Danny Espinosa, and we only need one Espinosa.
I was disappointed that the Nats didn’t find a much needed bullpen upgrade. In the three games since I wrote my plea for a good bullpen arm, the Nats have amply demonstrated that their pen is overrated and may not be adequate for post-season competition. I hope that during August someone good can clear waivers and they can still work out a deal.
Maybe the worst news, however, was that the Indians picked up Cabrera’s salary, suggesting that Mark Lerner may have been dead serious with his comment that the Nats’ $135 million payroll is “beyond topped out.” If the Nats really have reached the Lerners’ payroll ceiling, I think it may prove to be tough to compete in a division that is rapidly getting better.
As the season has gone along and Jerry Blevins’ ERA has crept up (now at 4.71), many Nats fans have expressed disappointment in his performance. As we approach the trade deadline, Jim Bowden, for example, has called on the Nats to trade for a lefty reliever.
Blevins is left-handed specialist (sometimes referred to as a LOOGY). I thought I’d look for other left-handed specialists to compare him to, so I started by searching (via baseball-reference.com) for left handers who have pitched at least 20 innings this season and recorded 2.5 or fewer outs per game. Other than Blevins, I found 22 pitchers matching those criteria.
Of course, because left specialists are expected to face multiple batters or because their opponent substitutes a pinch hitter to regain the platoon advantage, all lefty specialists face quite a few right-handed batters. Of the 22 pitchers, 12 faced more left-handed than right-handed batters. Of the 10 who faced more right handers, six (James Russell, Brett Cecil, Wesley Wright, Alex Torres, Rex Brothers, and Aaron Poreda) either had a reverse platoon differential (measured by opponents’ on-base-plus-slugging) or essentially no platoon differential. I pulled these six out of my sample, which left me with 16 pitchers in my comparison group that fit my criteria for left-handed specialists.
These 16 pitchers on average faced 52% left handed batters, with right handed batters having an OPS of .802 and left handed batters an OPS of .597.
In contrast, right handed batters facing Blevins have had an OPS of .860, but left handers have had an OPS of just .370. Only one of the 16 pitchers I’m comparing him to has a lower OPS by left-handed batters (Randy Choate with .339). There’s nothing wrong, and much that is right, with Blevins when he is facing left handers.
The only problem is that he’s not facing left handers as much as most left-handed specialists. Compared with other left-handed specialists, Matt Williams has not leveraged his platoon advantage especially well, with Blevins facing left handers only 46% of the time. With a pitcher like Blevins, the greatest advantage would come from trying to send him in only when he’ll face at least two lefties. With better match ups, Blevins should be pitching better. Rather than trading for a different lefty, let’s educate our manager on how to use the ones he has.
Today’s the deadline for all-star voting, and the teams will be announced beginning on Sunday. I’d like to put together an all-star team, but don’t know all of the players in the National League as well as I know the Nationals. I want to be fair, which means I want to use a systematic methodology based on statistics. A year ago, I came up with a methodology that I’m happy with.
I won’t go through all the details of the methodology here (you can read the other article if you’re interested), but the main idea is that I give quite a bit of weight to both this season and last season’s performance, plus a little bit of weight to career performance. Most of the dumb all-star selections have been players who hit a hot streak for half a season and were never good again. So I’m not going to select Scooter Gennett or Alfredo Simon just because they’ve been hot for a couple of months. My method does allow for a few exceptional players to make the team based on a single season of play (Billy Hamilton makes my team, and if I were doing an AL team, Masahiro Tanaka would definitely be on it), but generally I’m looking for those who’ve played very well for at least a year and a half.
The teams are mostly based on “points” that are calculated from wins above replacement (WAR), using this formula (in most cases):
Points = 4*2014 WAR + 2*2013 WAR + Square root(Career WAR)
Again, see the other article for details and some special cases.
Here’s my 2014 all-star team (with points shown in parentheses):
National League – Starters
C – Jonathan Lucroy – Brewers (26.4)
1B – Paul Goldschmidt – Diamondbacks (27.9)
2B – Chase Utley – Phillies (26.2)
3B – Matt Carpenter – Cardinals (28.1)
SS – Troy Tulowitzki – Rockies (36.0) – The overall point leader in my system
LF – Carlos Gomez – Brewers (34.1)
CF – Andrew McCutchen – Pirates (35.1)
RF – Giancarlo Stanton – Marlins (28.8)
DH –Freddie Freeman – Braves (22.9)
SP – Clayton Kershaw – Dodgers (33.4)
Reserves
C – Yadier Molina – Cardinals (25.1)
C – Buster Posey – Giants (21.8)
1B – Joey Votto – Reds (22.8)
1B – Anthony Rizzo – Cubs (17.9) – The Cubs were the only team that required a “special selection” – bumping up a player who wouldn’t otherwise qualify in order to have a player from each team.
2B – Daniel Murphy – Mets (19.6)
3B – Todd Frazier – Reds (23.6)
3B – David Wright – Mets (23.3)
SS – Hanley Ramirez – Dodgers (25.0)
OF – Hunter Pence – Giants (26.8)
OF – Jason Heyward – Braves (23.6)
OF – Justin Upton – Braves (19.6)
OF – Billy Hamilton – Reds (18.6) – Selected because my system requires at least one “true” center fielder in both the starting lineup and as a reserve
DH – Yasiel Puig – Dodgers (23.5)
SP – Adam Wainwright – Cardinals (32.5)
SP – Johnny Cueto – Reds (25.1)
SP – Zack Greinke – Dodgers (21.4)
SP – Jordan Zimmermann – Nationals (20.9)
SP – Cole Hamels – Phillies (20.8)
SP – Bartolo Colon – Mets (20.3)
RP – Craig Kimbrel – Braves (13.3)
RP – Joaquin Benoit – Padres (12.4)
RP – Jonathan Papelbon – Phillies (11.6)
RP – Mark Melancon – Pirates (11.3)
RP – Huston Street – Padres (10.7)
Two players, A.J. Pollock (19.7) and Cliff Lee (22.1), missed my team due to being on the disabled list.
There you have it—Jordan Zimmermann is the only National player who qualifies to be on my all-star team. Several Nats came close—Anthony Rendon (19.5), Jayson Werth (19.5), Ian Desmond (18.9), and Rafael Soriano (10.5). Although the Nats media are lobbying hard for Adam LaRoche (12.5), his poor showing in 2013 ensured that under my system he wouldn’t beat the stiff competition at first base.
It will be interesting to see which Nats are actually selected.
In June, the Nats’ pitchers excelled and the injured position players came off the disabled list. By the end of the month, with Bryce Harper’s return, the regular lineup was finally intact for the first time since opening day. The Nats went 17–11 and picked up two games from the Braves, finishing the month with a 44–38 record, 1/2 game behind the Braves and 5 games ahead of the faltering Marlins.
The Nats’ month began with the final game of a series at home, facing the Rangers. Tanner Roark pitched well, but he was no match for Yu Darvish, but the Nats still won the the series over the Texans 2 games to 1. The Phillies came to town next, and Ryan Zimmerman returned from the DL and began playing left field for the first time in his career, where he replaced the still-injured Harper. The Nats swept a 3-game set with the Phils. In the MLB first-year player draft, the Nats had the 18th pick and selected right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde, who had undergone Tommy John surgery the week before the draft.
Next came a west coast road trip. They took 2 games of 3 against the Padres, with the victories featuring shutouts on pitching gems by Roark and Jordan Zimmermann. They finished the San Diego series in a 3-way tie for first place in the NL East. Next, they had a 4-game set in San Francisco facing the Giants, who at the time sported a 42–21 record, the best in baseball. With continued excellent pitching, the Nats took the first three games of the series and moved into first place, before losing the finale. Over a span lasting 51-2/3 innings from June 3 through June 10, Nats’ starters struck out 51 batters and didn’t issue a single walk—something that hasn’t happened in at least the last century.
The Nats then headed to St. Louis to face the Cardinals. They were missing Wilson Ramos, however, who had suffered another hamstring injury and went on the 15-day DL. Facing Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, and Jaime Garcia, the Nats bats were silenced as they managed only 3 runs over the 3-game set and were swept by the Cards and fell back behind the Braves.
Back home, the Nats took a two game set against the Astros and regained the division lead. Next, the Braves arrived at Nationals Park for a 4-game set. At that point, the Braves led the Nats 5 games to 1 in this season’s match ups, and were 18–7 over the Nats since the start of 2013. The Braves shut out the Nats in the opener. In game 2, an Anthony Rendon home run against Kimbrel sent the game to extra innings, but the Braves ultimately won in the 13th inning. But the Nats came back to shut down the Braves, 3–0 and 4–1 in the last two games, splitting the series and ending with the same 1-1/2 game lead that they had going in.
Going on the road, the Nats faced the Brewers, who held first place in the NL Central and had overtaken the Giants for the best record in the National League. The Nats won the first two games, with the second victory coming in a 16-inning marathon, before losing the third game. With Ramos coming off the DL, they next had a 4-game set against the Cubs. The Nats lost the first two games, but swept a doubleheader to split the series. The Braves slipped back into first place by a half game. The month ended with the Nats back in Washington facing the Rockies on Bryce Harper bobblehead night, with Harper returning to the lineup after more than two months away. Zimmerman returned to third base and the Nats beat the Rockies.
Despite the returning starters, the team’s offense continued to be weak in June. The Nats were 8th in the National League in runs scored in June with 109 and 11th in weighted runs created relative to league (wRC+) with 83 (that is, they created 17% fewer runs than the average team, taking account of park effects and quality of the league).
On the other hand, the pitching was excellent. The starters’ ERA– (earned run average adjusted for park and league quality) was 72 in June (that is, 28% better than average), the best of any major league team. The relievers’ ERA– was 89 in June, which was 8th in the NL, but their fielding independent pitching (FIP–) of 74 ranked best in the NL and second in MLB.
Record:
17-11 (.607)
Pythagorean Record:
18-10 (3.89 R/G – 2.93 RA/G)
Playoff odds at the end of the month:
Baseball Prospectus: 61.5% for Division championship, 73.2% for playoffs
FanGraphs (projection mode): 71.5% for Division, 88.3% for playoffs
FanGraphs (season-to-date mode): 57.8% for Division, 69.1% for playoffs
June MVP:
Jordan Zimmermann (3-2, 1.43 RA/9, 6 G, 44 IP, 6.1 H/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.7 rWAR).
Most valuable position player
Anthony Rendon (.310/.369/.560, 25 G, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 1.4 fWAR).
Most valuable relief pitcher:
Rafael Soriano (0-0, 1.50 RA/9, 12 G, 12 IP, 3.8 H/9, 9.8 K/9, 3.40 RE24, 0.5 rWAR).
Worst month:
This month it was the bench players. Although Scott Hairston went 1 for 13, Greg Dobbs will get the award for for getting designated for assignment after going 1 for 11 this month.
League leaders:
Denard Span led MLB in doubles in June with 12. Ian Desmond led MLB in strikeouts with 40, and Danny Espinosa led the NL in strikeout rate with 38.7%. Jordan Zimmermann tied with Hamels and Kershaw for the NL lead in innings pitched with 44.
Best start this month:
Jordan Zimmermann (June 8, 6–0 win over the Padres in San Diego) pitched what may have been the best start in Nationals history. It was a 2-hit shutout with 12 strikeouts and no walks, for a game score of 95, the highest ever recorded by a Washington National. Honorable mention goes to Tanner Roark for another 6–0 win over the Padres pitched two days earlier, in which Roark gave up 3 hits and struck out 11 in 8 innings (game score of 87).
Worst start:
Stephen Strasburg (June 25, 9–2 loss to the Brewers in Milwaukee) gave up 8 hits, 7 runs, 3 walks, and 2 home runs in 4-2/3 innings, while getting 2 K and a game score of 19.
Tough losses:
A tough loss is in which the pitcher is charged with a loss despite pitching well (a game score of 50 or higher):
- Jordan Zimmermann (June 13, 1–0 loss to the Cardinals in St. Louis) gave up 1 run on 3 hits (a solo home run did the damage) with 1 walk and 5 strikeouts in 8 innings (game score 76).
- Stephen Strasburg (June 14, 4–1 loss to the Cardinals in St. Louis) gave up 3 runs on 7 hits with 1 walk and 5 strikeouts in 6-2/3 innings (game score 52).
- Jordan Zimmermann (June 19, 3–0 loss to the Braves in Washington) gave up 2 runs on 7 hits with 1 walk and 6 strikeouts in 7 innings (game score 60).
Cheap win:
None
Best shutdown:
Ross Detwiler (June 24, 4–2 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee in 16 innings) pitched 4 innings (the 10th through the 13th) without giving up a run, with the score 2–2. He didn’t allow a base runner in the 10th or the 11th. In the 12th, he gave up a hit, then got a double play. In the 13th, after letting the leadoff hitter on, he got Braun and Gomez out to get out of the inning. (Win probability added .534). In the 16th, Zimmerman homered to give the Nats the two-run lead, and Soriano got the save.
Worst meltdown:
Rafael Soriano (June 7, 4–3 loss to the Padres in San Diego). Soriano entered the 9th with a 3–2 lead and got the first two batters out. With one out to go, Yonder Alonso hit a game-tying home run and sent the game to extra innings. (Win probability added –.334) Craig Stammen went on to give up the deciding run in the bottom of the 11th.
Clutch hit:
Anthony Rendon (June 20, 6–4 loss to the Braves in Washington). With 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, the Nats trailing 4–2, Craig Kimbrel on the mound for the save, and Nate McLouth on first, Rendon blasted a home run into the visitors bullpen to tie the game (WPA .492). However, Jerry Blevins gave up 2 runs in the top of the 13th, so the Nats weren’t able to capitalize on Rendon’s memorable home run.
Choke:
Denard Span (June 12, 7–1 loss to the Giants in San Francisco) came to bat in the 5th with runners on first and third and one out, trailing the Giants 2–1. Tim Hudson got him to ground into a double play ending the rally (WPA –.172).
As the Nats get ready for Bryce Harper to return next week, the team faces its first major roster quandary of this season. Over the last three weeks, Ryan Zimmerman has proved to be a reasonably good left fielder while filling in for Bryce, but now decisions will need to be made about where to play him and how that will impact the rest of the lineup.
The two main choices are to move him back to third base, Anthony Rendon to second, and Danny Espinosa to the bench, or to keep Zimmerman in left field, move Harper to center, and Denard Span to the bench.
If Zim is capable of playing third base adequately, logic argues in favor of moving him there and sitting Espinosa. Simply put, Span is a good player and Espinosa isn’t. For example, the projections available from FanGraphs show Span with a projected slash line of .273/.323/.380 (close to a league average hitter, plus above-average defense) and Espinosa with a slash line of .221/.283/.361, which is about as low as it gets for players with significant projected playing time.
Of course, other variations could be used on occasion—Zimmerman might occasionally give Adam LaRoche a day off at first base, or let Harper move to right to give Jayson Werth a day off. But those variations, barring an injury, would be used only on occasion to keep the team rested.
So the big question is whether Zim can still play third base. If he can, I’d suggest a somewhat unusual platoon arrangement. Espinosa hits much better against left-handers, so I’d suggest playing Zimmerman at third against right-handers, and move Harper to center and sit Span against lefties. Espinosa’s career slash line against right-handers is a terrible .217/.288/.369, but against lefties it’s an impressive .266/.338/.457. Span, on the other hand, doesn’t have much of a platoon differential, but he lacks Espinosa’s power against southpaws.
The Nats’ other roster puzzle (at least to me) is their utilization of Ross Detwiler. In Tuesday’s night’s 16-inning marathon, he pitched 4 scoreless innings to keep the game tied—probably the Nats’ single most impressive relief appearance this season, which allowed Zimmerman to eventually hit the winning home run. But overall, Detwiler’s season has been pretty horrible—his opponents’ slash line of .290/.389/.442 indicates that he’s probably been even worse than suggested by his 4.36 ERA.
With the poor performance has come a willingness to use Detwiler mainly in low leverage situations when the team is either several runs behind or has a large lead. Of his 21 appearances, 14 have come with a leverage index of .75 or less (that is, a low leverage situation), with 12 of these in situations where the Nats were down by 3 or more runs or up by 5 or more runs. Tuesday’s extra-inning marathon (leverage index of 2.52) was his only appearance with a leverage index greater than 1.50. (Note—a leverage index of 1.00 represents an “average” situation.)
Detwiler hasn’t taken well to relief and still aspires to be a starter, but that isn’t going to happen with the Nationals, who have brought in Blake Treinen or Taylor Jordan when they needed a replacement starter. He’s being paid $3 million this season, which seems like a lot for a player in such a marginal role. His fasball velocity is still fine, but he relies on it too much. With a season and a half until free agency, I think it may make sense to try to trade him. Perhaps another team thinks it can succeed where the Nats have failed, in developing another pitch and allowing him to move back into the rotation. Without Detwiler, the Nats could move Treinen or Taylor Hill into the long-relief role, or bring up Xavier Cedeno as a lefty specialist. Detwiler wouldn’t bring much back in a trade, but I still think it may be better for both him and the Nats to trade him.
The Nats got off to a lackluster start as the injuries mounted and the defense sputtered. One of their starters was consistently inconsistent. Meanwhile, the Braves raced out of the gate to a solid early lead in the NL East. Unfortunately this seems like an ominous sequel to the start of the 2013 season.
The Nats started the season with Doug Fister on the disabled list with a lat strain, with Taylor Jordan moving into the fifth starter role. They opened the season, and Matt Williams’ tenure as manager, playing the Mets in New York City. They swept the series, with a notable come-from-behind win in ten innings in the opener. Unfortunately, it was also a costly win, as Wilson Ramos suffered a broken hamate bone in his left hand, placing him on the DL.
Returning to Washington for the home opener against the Braves, the Nationals lost the first two before getting a win in the third game. They fared better against in their next series against Miami, sweeping the series and ending the home stand in first place with a 7–2 record. Scott Hairston went on the DL with an oblique strain.
The team’s next series was in Atlanta, and the Nats were swept by the Braves and were knocked out of the lead. Ryan Zimmerman fractured his right thumb diving into second base on a pickoff play, and Denard Span went on the 7-day concussion DL after a base path collision. Moving on to Miami, the Nats took two of three from the Marlins.
Next came the Nats’ longest home stand of the season. Facing the Cardinals, they split a four-game series. They lost the next series to the Angels, two games to one. Jordan gave up Albert Pujols’ 500th home run. The home stand ended with a four-game series against the Padres, which the Nats again split. But this series was also a costly one, as Bryce Harper suffered a torn ligament in his thumb on a headfirst slide into third base and had to undergo surgery. The Nats’ record on their home stand was 5–6, which wasn’t what the Nats had been hoping for.
The month of April ended in Houston, where the Nats swept a two-game set with the Astros, while the Braves were losing to the Marlins. At the end of the month, the Nats had a 16–12 record and were in third place, two games back of the 17–9 Braves and slightly trailing the 15–11 Mets in the percentage standings (.577 to .571). According to the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report, the Nats finished the month with a 49.6% chance of winning the division and a 71.8% chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs, using the “projection mode,” showed probabilities that were a bit more optimistic (56.8% for the division and 80.6% for the playoffs), though with “season to date stats” mode the odds were quite a bit lower (29.7% for the division and 51.2% for the playoffs).
Despite the injuries, the team’s offense played well, finishing tied for second in the National League in runs scored with 126 and second in weighted runs created relative to league (wRC+) with 108 (that is, they created 8% more runs than the average team, taking account of park effects and quality of the league). Defense, on the other hand, is measured by many metrics and for this month all of the metrics were in agreement—the Nats were the worst defensive team in the NL. They had the worst fielding percentage (.975), the lowest defensive efficiency (.661; that is, only 66.1% of balls in play were converted to outs), the lowest defensive runs saved (–12), and the worst UZR (–14.2).
The starters’ ERA– (earned run average adjusted for park and league quality) was 107 (that is, 7% worse than average), ranking 9th in the NL. The poor defense obviously hurt their performance in terms of runs allowed, and the starters fared much better on the fielding independent measures, with a FIP– of 85 (15% better than the league), which ranked third, and an xFIP– of 91, which was second in the league. The relievers had an ERA– of 61 (39% better than the league average), which ranked second. Their FIP– of 80 ranked third, and their xFIP– of 88 ranked fourth.
Record:
16-12 (.571)
Pythagorean Record:
16-12 (4.50 R/G – 3.86 RA/G)
April MVP:
Jayson Werth (.288/.383/.462, 28 G, 120 PA, 4 HR, 16 R, 16 RBI, 0.7 fWAR, 9.64 RE24, 1.78 WPA) edges out Anthony Rendon (.316/.352/.544, 19 R, 20 RBI, 0.8 fWAR) and Adam LaRoche (.312/.413/.495, 17 R, 17 RBI, 0.7 fWAR) on the basis of his exceptional clutch hitting.
Most valuable pitcher:
Tanner Roark (2-0, 2.76 RA/9, 5 G, 32-2/3 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.63 RE24, 1.1 rWAR) edges out Gio Gonzalez (3–1, 3.25 RA/9, 6 G, 36 IP, 0.9 rWAR).
Most valuable reliever:
Rafael Soriano (1-0, 5 SV, 0.00 RA/9, 10 G, 10 IP, 10.8 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 5.4 H/9, 4.43 RE24, 0.74 WPA, 5 shutdowns, 0 meltdown).
Worst month:
Taylor Jordan (0–3, 7.01 RA/9, –7.10 RE24, 5 G, 25-2/3 IP, 6.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 11.9 H/9, 3 HR, 60.3% LOB%). Tyler Clippard (6 meltdowns, 2–2, 5.68 RA/9, –3.74 RE24, –1.38 WPA, 3 shutdowns, 6 meltdowns) is runner up.
League leaders:
Jayson Werth led the majors in clutch hitting in April with 1.78 WPA (win probability added). Stephen Strasburg led the majors in strikeout rate with 14.03 K/9. Rafael Soriano was one of five major league relievers with an ERA of 0.00 for the month. On the other side of the ledger, Strasburg also led the majors in batting average allowed on balls in play (BABIP) with .407. Tyler Clippard had the worst clutch performance of all major league relievers as measured both by number of meltdowns (6) and WPA (–1.38). Ian Desmond led the majors in fielding errors with 8.
Best start this month:
Tanner Roark (April 26, 4–0 win over the Padres at home) in the first complete game of his career, pitched a three-hit shutout with 8 strikeouts and 1 walks with a game score of 88.
Worst start:
Jordan Zimmermann (April 9, 10–7 win over the Marlins at home) lasted only 1-2/3 innings and gave up 7 hits, 5 runs, 2 walks, and a home run, while getting only 1 K and a game score of 20. The Nats bullpen held on to give up only two more runs, and the offense came back to take the lad on a Werth grand slam home run in the bottom of the 8th.
Tough loss:
Jordan Zimmermann (April 19, 4–3 loss to the Cardinals at home) gave up 4 runs—only 1 of them earned—on 7 hits with 2 walks and 6 strikeouts in 7 innings (game score 57).
Cheap win: (none)
Best shutdown:
Drew Storen (April 18, 3–1 win over the Cardinals at home) got the call to put out a fire when he relieved Clippard in the 8th inning with one out and runners on second and third, and a 3–1 lead on the line. He got Matt Holliday to foul out and Allen Craig to ground out to get out of the inning and end the threat. (Win probability added .216).
Worst meltdown:
Tyler Clippard (April 21, 4–2 loss to the Angels at home) entered in the top of the 8th protecting a 1–0 lead. Pujols led off and reached on a Desmond error. Clippard struck out the next batter, but Pujols stole second and advanced to third on an infield single. The next batter popped out, but then Clippard gave up a single to Aybar that scored Pujols, followed by a walk and then a double by Ibanez that scored all three runners. He left the game with a 4–1 deficit, Ibanez on third, and still only two outs. (Win probability added –.699)
Clutch hit:
Jayson Werth (April 23, 5–4 win over the Angels at home). Werth came to bat in the bottom of the ninth with one out, Rendon and Span on first and second, and the Nats trailing 4–2. On a 3–0 count, he hit a double into the left field corner and scored both runners, tying the game (WPA .506). LaRoche was the next batter and drove Werth in for the walk-off win.
Choke:
Jose Lobaton (April 24, 4–3 loss to the Padres at home) came to bat in the bottom of the 12th inning with one out, Harper on second base, and the Nats trailing 4–3. He lined out to the shortstop and Harper couldn’t make it back to the base, ending the game (WPA –.267).
