Entering the 2026 season, the expectations for the Nationals were pretty low. For example, the pre-season forecast from Fangraphs had the Nats projected to win 68 games, in last place in the NL East and next-to-last among all NL teams, ahead only of the Rockies. Other pre-season rankings forecasted similar or even worse results. Looking beyond the dismal projections, Nats fans were interested to see the effects of the new management team featuring a young manager and coaches and a focus on analytics and development. Would we see batters taking new approaches at the plate, fielders making improvements on the field, and pitchers getting better results on the mound?
The Nats faced a tough schedule for their first 15 games, with four of their five opponents having had the four best records in the National League in 2025 (the Brewers with 97 wins, the Phillies with 96 wins, the World champion Dodgers with 93 wins, and the Cubs with 92 wins). The season opened on March 26 against the Cubs in Chicago, and the Nats won the game by the score of 10 to 4. The Nats were blown out 10–2 in the second game but came back to win the third game and take the series. Going to Philadelphia for their second series, the Nats blew out the Phillies by a score of 13–2 in the series opener, leaving them two games above .500 for the first time since June 30, 2021. And while I generally try to avoid paying attention to statistics during the first few games of the season, new Nats outfielder Joey Wiemer started the season by reaching base in all of his first 10 plate appearances (tying Carlos Delgado for the record) while hitting two home runs and a triple. He ended the day of March 30 on top of the MLB leaderboards in average (.800), on-base percentage (.846), slugging (1.600), OPS (2.446), weighted runs created (wRC+ of 527), and fWAR (0.7). Needless to say, his dominance wouldn’t persist, but it was fun while it lasted.
The Nats concluded their series with the Phillies and the road trip with two losses, both in one-run games, with the second loss coming in extra innings. They lost the Phillies series two games to one and were 3–3 on the road trip.
The Nats’ home opener came on April 3 against the world champion Dodgers. They lost all three games and were blown out in the first game by a score of 13–6. In the third game, the Nats led 6 to 3 after 7 innings but gave up 4 runs in the top of 8th and one more in the top of the ninth to lose 8 to 6. They next faced the Cardinals and were able to break their 5-game losing streak with a 9 to 6 win in the first game, scoring 6 runs in the bottom of the eighth to take the lead. In the second game, they were ahead 5 to 2 after 6 innings but gave up one run in the top of the seventh and two runs in the top of the eighth to tie them game, then gave up two more runs in the top of the 10th for a 7–6 loss. With another loss in the final game, they ended the home stand with a 1–5 record and had dropped to last place in the NL East.
The Nats’ next road trip opened against the Brewers in Milwaukee, and it also opened a stretch of 17 games played in 17 days. In the first game, the Nats scored 4 runs in the top of the ninth to break a 3–3 tie and take a 7–3 victory. In the second game, strong pitching resulted in a 3–1 victory, and in the third game they scored two runs in the top of the eighth to break a 6–6 tie and take an 8–6 win to sweep the series, moving into third place in the NL East. Their next series was four games against the Pirates in Pittsburgh, with the Pirates coming into the series in first place in the NL Central. The Bucs blew out the Nats 16–5 in the first game, but in the second game the Nats’ bullpen held on to an early lead affording them a one-run victory. In the third game, they were shut out 2–0 by 6 innings from Pirates bulk man Carmen Mlodzinski along with 3 innings from their opener and the bullpen. The Nats managed to win the fourth game 8–7 in 10 innings and split the series, as the Nats gave up a run in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game before scoring the game-winning run in the top of the 10th. Their record on the road trip was 5–2.
Returning home, the Nats opened with a three-game series against the Giants. They lost the first game, then lost the second 7–6 in a 12-inning heartbreaker—in the bottom of the ninth they scored to tie the game but were unable to score in any of the three extra innings. In the third game, opener PJ Poulin combined with bulk men Miles Mikolas and Andrew Alvarez to produce an unlikely 3–0 shutout and avoid a sweep. Next came a four-game series against the Braves, who held first place in the division. The Braves won the first game, but the Nats won the second in an 11–4 blowout. The Nats lost the third game but in the fourth game were holding onto a 2–2 tie after six innings before surrendering 4 runs in the top of the seventh and another in the top of the ninth for a 7–2 loss. The Nats’ record for the home stand was 2–5.
The Nats then started their next road trip in Chicago with three games against the White Sox. In the first game, they were ahead 3 to 2 after 6 innings but allowed 2 runs in the bottom of the 7th, then scored one in the top of the 8th to tie it but gave up the winning run in the bottom of the 8th for a 5–4 loss. The next two games each went 10 innings and resulted in Nats wins. In the second game, they were ahead 2–0 going into the 8th but gave up 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th to tie it, then scored 4 runs in the top of the 10th for the 6–3 win. In the next day’s rubber game, the score was knotted at 0–0 after 9 innings, then the Nats scored two in the top of the 10th for a 2–1 win. They finished their streak of 17 games on 17 consecutive days with a 9–8 record. After a day off, the Nats concluded their road trip in New York City with a three-game series against the Mets. The series began with a pair of blow outs, with the Mets winning the first game 8–0 and the Nats winning the second 14–2. In the third game, the Nats were trailing 4–3 after 7 innings but scored two in the top of the 8th for a 5–4 win. Their record for the road trip was 4–2 and their record at the end of the month was 15–17, good for third place in the NL East, 7 games behind the division-leading Braves.
On offense, the Nats were surprisingly successful, ranking second in the majors in runs scored in March and April with 175. However, there seems to have been a bit of luck involved, as they didn’t rank that high in the offensive components: they were tied for 11th (of 30 teams) in home runs, 14th in average, 13th in on-base percentage, 13th in slugging, 12th in OPS, 11th in wRC+, and 6th in the Fangraphs base running measure.
On the other hand, the pitching was pretty dreadful. Their staff ERA of 5.11 was ranked 29th, as same as their fielding independent pitching (FIP) of 5.28. The staff allowed 52 home runs, the most of any staff in the majors. They ranked 28th in strikeout percentage (19.2%) and ranked 20th in walk percentage with 9.8%. There is some evidence that the pitching performance was improving after the first two weeks of the season. From March 25 to April 9, the Nats ranked 30th in ERA (6.06) and FIP (6.22), while from April 10 to 30 they ranked 18th in ERA (4.55) and 24th in FIP (4.73).
Overall, I think we can characterize the Nats as performing slightly better than expected, though not well enough to lead to a major change in the seasonal projections. As mentioned earlier, before the season started Fangraphs projected them to win 68 games, whereas by the end of April that projection had inched up to 70 wins. They are an interesting team, but not yet a winning team.
Roster moves
In the first few games, most of the players acquired during the off season made their debuts with the Nationals. On opening day, March 26, right-handed outfielder Joey Wiemer and left-handed relief pitcher Cionel Pérez made the first appearances for the Nats. On March 28, left-handed-hitting infielder Jorbit Vivas, right-handed starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, right-handed relief pitcher Andre Granillo, and left-handed relief pitcher Ken Waldichuk debuted with the team. On March 29, right-handed relief pitcher Gus Varland made his debut with the team. On March 30, left-handed starting pitcher Foster Griffin made his debut with team after pitching for three years in Japan. And on March 31, right-handed starting pitcher Zack Littell debuted with the team. More information is available on each of these players in my off-season in review post.
Shortly after opening day, the Nats front office continued to add to the roster when they traded for infielder Curtis Mead from the White Sox in exchange for minor league catcher Boston Smith. To clear a 40-man-roster spot for Mead, they sold minor league relief pitcher Jake Eder‘s contract to the Dodgers. (The Nats had acquired Eder last summer from the Angels as part of the return in the trade for relief pitchers Andrew Chafin and Luis García.) Mead is a 25-year-old right-hander from Australia who from 2023 to 2025 played 152 games at third base, first base and second base for the Rays and White Sox, hitting .238/.300./.317 with 5 home runs and 31 RBI. With the Nationals, he would platoon with Luis García, Jr. at first base as well as playing occasionally at second or third base. Mead debuted with the Nationals on March 31.
On April 7, right-handed relief pitcher Paxton Schultz was activated from the 15-day injured list and made his debut with the Nationals. On January 9, the Nats had claimed the 28-year-old Schultz off waivers from the Toronto. Drafted by the Brewers in the 14th round of the 2019 amateur draft, Schultz was traded to the Blue Jays in 2021 and in 2025 pitched for them in 13 games including 2 starts (24⅔ innings) with a 4.38 ERA and 1.419 WHIP. With experience as a starter, Schultz is capable of pitching multiple innings.
On April 13, Cole Henry went on the 15-day injured list with a right rotator cuff strain and Ken Waldichuk went on the injured list with left forearm tightness. A few days later, we learned that Waldichuk needed to have his second Tommy John surgery in two years as well as an internal brace procedure and will not be available to pitch before early 2027.
On April 17, 30-year-old left-handed relief pitcher Richard Lovelady debuted with the Nats. Lovelady had spent most of spring training with the Nats after being claimed off waivers from the Mets in January, but the Nats had designated him for assignment on March 10, and the Mets then claimed him back. He pitched in 6 regular-season games for the Mets before they also DFA’d him (again), and the Nats purchased his contract back from the Mets. In 124 games over parts of 7 seasons with the Royals, A’s, Cubs, Rays, Blue Jays and Mets, he had a career 5.25 ERA and a 1.369 WHIP.
On April 24, 25-year-old right-handed pitcher Riley Cornelio made his major league debut. The Nats drafted him in the 7th round of the 2022 amateur draft and added him to the 40-man roster in November 2025. Used almost exclusively as a starting pitcher in the minor leagues, he made his debut in a relief role, and it didn’t go well. For details of the game, see the section “Worst meltdown” below.
Record:
15–17 (.469)
Pythagorean Record:
15–17 (5.47 R/G – 5.78 RA/G)
March/April MVP:
- James Wood (.238/.400/.541, 10 HR, 30 R, 24 RBI, 155 PA, 155 wRC+, 5 SB, 1.3 fWAR). Wood was also recognized by MLB as the NL Player of the Week for the week of April 6 to 12 after going 12 for 22 (.545) with 3 doubles, 3 homers, 8 RBI, 6 walks, 2 stolen bases, and 8 runs scored, with a .655 OBP and a 1.091 slugging percentage.
- A close runner up for March/April MVP was CJ Abrams (.296/.405/.556, 8 HR, 16 R, 26 RBI, 131 PA, 164 wRC+, 5 SB, 1.2 fWAR).
Starting pitcher of the month:
- Foster Griffin (3–0, 2.67 RA/9, 6 GS, 33⅔ IP, 8.0 K/9, 1.069 WHIP, 1.2 RA9-WAR, 0.3 fWAR).
Relief pitcher of the month:
- Andrew Alvarez (1-0, 0.00 RA/9, 1 G, 4⅓ IP, 10.4 K/9, 0.923 WHIP, 2.12 RE24, 1 shutdown, 0 meltdown, 0.2 RA9-WAR, 0.1 fWAR). It’s unusual for me to give this award to a player who pitched in only a single game, but it was a really good one and the competition this month was fairly weak.
Worst month:
- Zack Littell (0–4, 9.73 RA/9, 6 G, 28⅔ IP, 5.0 K/9, 1.744 WHIP, –1.1 RA9-WAR, –1.0 fWAR).
- The runner up was Miles Mikolas (0–3, 8.89 RA/9, 7 G, 27⅓ IP, 6.3 K/9, 1.720 WHIP, –0.9 RA9-WAR, –0.9 fWAR).
Best start:
- Foster Griffin (April 26, 2–1 win over the White Sox in Chicago) pitched 7 scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8 for a game score of 79.
Worst start:
- Miles Mikolas (April 3, 13–6 loss to the Dodgers at the home opener) gave up 11 runs on 11 hits and 1 walk in 4⅓ innings while striking out 4 for a game score of 0. The 11 earned runs allowed set a new club record—six previous Nationals pitchers had allowed 10 earned runs to score but none had made it to 11.
Tough losses:
- Jake Irvin (April 15, 2–0 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh) pitched 5 innings and gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 53.
- Jake Irvin (April 20, 9–4 loss to the Braves at home) pitched 5+ innings and gave up 4 runs (3 earned) on 3 hits and no walks while striking out 4 for a game score of 51. He was pulled from the game in the top of the sixth with the Nats ahead 3 to 2 but was responsible for two base runners who both went on to score.
Cheap wins:
- None
Biggest shutdown:
- Orlando Ribalta (April 16, 8–7 win over the Pirates in Pittsburgh). In the top of the 10th inning, the Nats had scored one run to take an 8 to 7 lead, and Ribalta got the call to pitch in the bottom of the inning. He gave up a single to the first batter he faced, advancing the automatic runner to third base. He then struck out Brian Reynolds and got Jake Mangum to ground into a double play, securing the win and giving Ribalta his first career save. (Win probability added/WPA +.453).
Worst meltdown:
- Riley Cornelio (April 24, 5–4 loss to the White Sox in Chicago). Called up from Rochester that day to make his major league debut, the plan was for Cornelio to take over in long relief after opener PJ Poulin and bulk man Miles Mikolas were finished. Cornelio got the call to pitch in the bottom of the seventh inning with the Nats ahead 3 to 2. Appearing nervous (as is not uncommon for pitchers making their debut), he walked the first two batters he faced, then gave up an RBI single that tied the game and had runners on first and third with no outs. He got his first out on a sacrifice fly that scored the go-ahead run. He then got a strikeout and another fly ball to get out of the inning. In the top of the eighth, Brady House hit a solo home run to even the score at four runs apiece. Cornelio was then asked to continue pitching in the bottom of the eighth and gave up a leadoff single followed by a walk. A sacrifice bunt moved both runners into scoring position, then he gave up another sacrifice fly that put the White Sox ahead 5 to 4. He walked another batter before finally getting a fly ball to end the inning. In the top of the ninth, Luis García, Jr hit a one-out double, but the Nats were unable score him, and Cornelio was charged with the loss (WPA –0.608). Cornelio, who had been a starter throughout his minor league career and had never had to take the ball late in a close game, was in tears after the game, leading some reporters to question the wisdom of Blake Butera in sticking to his plan to have him pitch for two innings in such a close game. Immediately after the game, Cornelio was informed that he had been optioned back to Rochester.
Walk off:
- None
Clutch hit:
- CJ Abrams (April 30, 5–4 win over the Mets in New York). In the top of the eighth inning, Abrams came to bat with one out, Daylen Lile on first base, and the Nats trailing 4–3. Abrams launched a fly ball into the right field bullpen, driving in the tying and game-winning runs (WPA +.484).
Choke:
- Curtis Mead (April 18, 7–6 loss to the Giants at home). Trailing the Giants 6–5 in the bottom of the ninth inning, Mead came to bat with one out and runners on first and third. He grounded to third base and Matt Chapman gunned down Jorbit Vivas at the plate (WPA –.289). The next batter, Brady House, hit a single to tie the game, but Mead was tagged out trying to go from first to third. The Nats lost the game in the 12th inning.
Memorable fielding plays:
- Nasim Nuñez made a spinning, acrobatic catch and an incredible throw in a play that was recognized as the NL Play of the Week.
- Jacob Young made a 5-star sliding catch with the bases loaded in a tie game.
- James Wood made a jumping catch to rob a home run.
- Nasim Nuñez made a perfect throw home to nail the runner and keep the score tied.
- Daylen Lile and CJ Abrams combine to gun down a runner at home plate.
- Jacob Young made a great leaping catch at the wall.
- James Wood used all his height in a perfectly timed leap to rob a home run from Juan Soto.
- In the same game, James Wood made a 5-star diving catch.
Leaderboard watch:
The following Nationals players finished the month among the top five league players one or more statistical category:
- James Wood – first in MLB in plate appearances (155), tied for second in NL in home runs (10), tied for first in MLB in runs scored (30), fifth in NL in isolated power (.303), first in NL in walks (31), tied for first in MLB in intentional walks (6), first in MLB in strikeouts (50), first in NL in walk percentage (20.0%), fourth in strikeout percentage (32.3%), fourth in Fangraphs offense runs above average (10.9)
- CJ Abrams – tied for fourth in NL in RBI (26), fifth in on-base percentage (.405), third in hit by pitch (6)
- Nasim Nuñez – first in MLB in stolen bases (14), second in NL in Fangraphs base running runs above average (2.0)
- Daylen Lile – tied for second in NL in caught stealing (3)
- Zack Littel – tied for first in MLB in losses (4), first in MLB in runs allowed (31), tied for first in NL in earned runs allowed (25), first in MLB in home runs allowed (13)
- Miles Mikolas – tied for fourth in NL in runs allowed (27), tied for first in NL in earned runs allowed (25), tied for third in NL in home runs allowed (8)
- PJ Poulin – tied for third in NL in games pitched (16)
- Cade Cavalli – tied for first in MLB in games started (7), tied for second in NL in hit by pitch (4)
- Jake Irvin – tied for second in NL in hit by pitch (4)
- Clayton Beeter – first in MLB in wild pitches (5)
The 2020s have seen a number of significant tweaks to baseball’s playing rules, such as the pitch clock, restrictions on defensive shifts, and the automatic runner in extra innings. The 2026 season is bringing us another one—the Automatic Ball-Strike (ABS) challenge system, which gives batters, pitchers, and catchers the opportunity to challenge ball and strike calls a limited number of times in each game. Is this change a good one? Will it solve the problem that it’s trying to address, or would there have been a better way to tackle it? My take is that while the ABS challenge system is a marginal step forward in improving ball and strike calls, another approach could have advanced the improvement much further.
What is the ABS challenge system?
At the start of each game, each team is given two challenges. If a challenge leads to a successful overturn of the call, the team retains it; if not, the team loses that challenge. If the team loses both of its challenges, it can no longer challenge the call unless the game goes to extra innings. In an extra inning game, each team that has lost its challenges will be awarded one additional challenge at the beginning of each extra inning. The only players allowed to challenge the call are the batter, the pitcher, and the catcher. They must request the challenge (by tapping on the cap or helmet) immediately after the call is made and are not allowed to receive assistance from the dugout or other players.
When the call is challenged, a visual graphic of the pitch’s location relative to the strike zone will be shown on the scoreboard. The data come from MLB’s Hawk-Eye camera technology, which has been deployed in all MLB ballparks since 2020. Each challenge takes about on average 14 seconds to resolve, so with an average of four challenges per game, the net effect will be to add about one minute to the length of each game.
During spring training, the success rate on challenges was between 50 to 60 percent, so we expect that a large share of challenges will be unsuccessful.
To implement the technology, the strike zone has been redefined in a way that allows for more precision. Instead of the traditional three-dimensional strike zone that has been used in the past, the new strike zone is a two-dimensional rectangle crossing the midpoint of home plate, which is 17 inches in width (matching the plate), with the top and bottom of the zone calculated as 53.5% and 27% of each batter’s measured height. The strike zone does not vary if a player crouches or adjusts his stance.
Needless to say, there will be a whole new set of strategies associated with the ABS challenge system. The baseball analyst known as Tangotiger has analyzed the math associated with a team optimizing its use of the challenges and finds, for example, that challenges are best used when the count is three balls or two strikes, or when there are runners on base. In addition, catchers will now have to help their pitchers understand how the strike zone varies with each batter’s height, since the traditional visual cues of the batter’s knees and chest may not work well for some batters.
Automatic balls and strikes are good
In the 2025 season, MLB umpires made, on average, 11 mistakes per game in calling balls and strikes, mistakes that affected the performance of batters and pitchers and occasionally tipped the balance of a game from one team to another. While there were sometimes complaints about the accuracy of the old Pitchf/x system that MLB used to use for tracking pitches until 2016, the new technology is extraordinarily accurate. With the adoption of the ABS challenge system, MLB has decided that the calls made by the ABS technology are superior to those made by umpires, and I agree with that decision.
Why didn’t MLB adopt a fully automated ABS system?
MLB has conducted several years of testing of ABS, beginning with the independent Atlantic League in 2019. Since 2023, it has been tested in Triple-A leagues. When those tests began, two systems were compared: a fully automated ABS system was used for games played on Tuesday through Thursday, and the ABS challenge system was used for games played on Friday through Sunday. After a season and a half, MLB announced that it would stop testing the fully automated ABS system but would continue testing the challenge system, citing “a clear preference among fans, players, managers and other personnel for the Challenge System.”
As far as I can tell, MLB has not published its detailed analysis of the comparison of the two systems, but we can piece together some information from articles by reporters who were covering these developments, such as Jayson Stark of The Athletic. A large majority of players (61 percent) preferred the challenge system versus 11 percent who preferred the fully automated system. Players cited three main reasons for disliking the fully automated system:
- Game pace was slowed. Two reasons why the fully automated ABS system might slow the pace of play were cited. First, the fully automated system slightly increased the number of walks, which led to longer games. But this conclusion seems like it might be questionable, because while the two systems were being compared, MLB was also testing a slightly smaller strike zone (the top of the zone was a couple of inches lower), which would have led to more walks. Since then, the height of the strike zone has been tweaked to make it more similar to the previous strike zone, so it’s not clear that the additional walks would still happen. (I’d also argue that with on-base percentages currently near their lowest levels in the last 50 years, it wouldn’t be terrible if a few extra batters drew walks.) Probably the bigger concern for most players with pace of play, though, is a slight delay of about two seconds for the umpire to be informed whether the pitch was a ball or a strike. That delay added maybe three minutes to the length of each fully automated game (versus maybe one minute added to each challenge-system game), and of course players and fans would prefer not to wait to find out those calls.
- Framing skills became irrelevant. All modern catchers have spent many hours working on their framing of pitches, but the fully automated system cares only about the location of the pitches, so framing was no longer relevant. So, it’s understandable that most catchers, and presumably some pitchers as well, would not be happy with the loss of the ability to “steal a strike” (that is, convince the umpire to call a strike on what would have been a ball) through framing.
- The new strike zone definition seemed uncomfortable. This objection is complicated because, as I’ve noted, the experiment coincided with MLB testing a slightly smaller strike zone, so it’s unclear how much of the discomfort was due to the smaller strike zone. The ABS strike zone has now been adjusted to more closely match the traditional zone, but we know that there are still small systematic differences between the zones called by umpires and the zone called by ABS—in particular, umpires tend to round out the corners of the strike zone, giving the zone a slightly oval shape, rather than following the strict rectangle used by ABS.
The fans also expressed a preference for the challenge system, though their margin of preference was not as large as that expressed by the players. I didn’t see any reports of the reasons given by fans for their preference, but reasons # 2 and 3 above seem specific to players, so I suspect that the fan preferences were mainly driven by pace of play. Also, fans seem to enjoy the drama of seeing the outcome of the challenge shown on the scoreboard. I would assume that only fans in attendance at games were surveyed, whereas the majority of the audience for MLB is watching televised games.
Framing doesn’t enhance the fan experience
In considering making changes to baseball rules, I believe the primary focus should be on enhancing the fan experience of the game, as it is the customer base that funds the sport and keeps it running. Player preferences can be considered to the extent that they are supporting goals that are good for the sport, such as keeping the players healthy, and do not reduce the enjoyment experienced by the fans.
Catcher framing is clearly a valuable and important skill in modern baseball. But it is a skill that is largely invisible to most fans and therefore does not enhance the experience of the sport for most fans. Even the catcher who is the best framer in baseball (probably Patrick Bailey right now) is stealing (relative to the average catcher) just one additional strike per game. Over a season, those extra strikes add up, so that over the course of a season his framing helps his team prevent 20 to 25 opponent runs from scoring, which is worth 2 to 2.5 wins. That contribution to defense is comparable to that provided by the best defensive shortstops or center fielders in baseball, but framing never makes the highlight reels. The motions associated with framing are so subtle that probably only a few dozen fans at the ballpark, those seated in the expensive seats directly behind home plate, would have any hope of seeing them; and then only if they were paying very close attention.
Watching a televised game, an attentive fan is better positioned to see framing, but it is still subtle, and because all catchers are trying to frame pitches, it is hard to see the movements that make one catcher better than another. Furthermore, that extra strike that is “stolen” in each game is not directly identifiable. We can only say that it is happening by looking at the statistics as they accumulate, but because it is measured relative to the “average” catcher who is also trying to steal strikes, we can’t tell with certainty whether any particular strike wouldn’t have been stolen by an average catcher. So, there is no applause or replay happening when the strike is stolen.
I believe that fans enjoy watching baseball largely because of the athletic skills that the players exhibit during the game—hitting, throwing, running, sliding and so forth. Framing is not one of those skills. And I believe that the current emphasis on framing reduces, at least to some extent, the other athletic skills of catchers that are more enjoyable to watch. Even if the one-knee-down catching style that is used to help with framing doesn’t hurt catchers’ ability to block pitches, throw out base stealers or field bunts, the general selection of catchers for their framing ability rather than their other defensive skills surely must deemphasize those other skills. Furthermore, the selection of catchers for framing ability surely prevents some catchers who are good hitters but poor framers from reaching an MLB roster.
A plan for a (nearly) fully automated ABS that (mostly) maintains the pace of play
First, let me emphasize that this idea is not entirely original to me. Joe Posnanski recently wrote about an idea that Bill James came up with. Unfortunately, I believe that Bill’s website has now disappeared, so I wasn’t able to track down a link to the original source. But I’ve taken Joe’s description of it and added some tweaks that I think can help address the pace of play issues that players objected to.
The idea is that all home-plate umpires would wear an earpiece that prompts them after a pitch whether the ABS system says it’s a ball or a strike. The umpires would still make the calls—if they think the ABS system got it wrong, they are free to overrule it. If it takes a second or two for the prompt to arrive and they are certain that the pitch was a ball or a strike, they will be told they should make the call immediately. But if a pitch is close to the boundary of the zone, MLB will recommend that they wait up to a couple of seconds for the prompt to arrive before making the call. So, if the pitch is in the heart of the plate, it’s immediately called a strike; if it’s four inches off the plate, it’s immediately called a ball. If it’s near the boundary, the umpire will wait a second or two to get the prompt, then make his decision taking account of what the prompt says (possibly overruling the prompt, but I’m guessing in most cases going along with the ABS prompt). If there’s a glitch in the system and the prompt doesn’t arrive within a couple of seconds, the umpire goes ahead and makes the call without waiting longer.
I’d guess that 70 to 80 percent of calls would be made immediately. There will still be some wrong calls—umpires occasionally get confused and call pitches in the heart of the plate as balls, or pitches three or four inches out of the zone as strikes. But those kinds of mistakes are rare, and assuming most umpires don’t overrule the ABS prompt very often, my guess is we’re talking one or two missed calls per game, rather than an average of 11 per game under the current system. That’s infrequent enough that catchers will lose the incentive to frame pitches, but as I’ve already discussed, I’m fine with that. Delays of one or two seconds on maybe 20 to 35 calls per game would add only a minute to the overall game time, similar to the challenge system. And unlike under the challenge system, almost all of the ball-strike calls will be correct. If the system makes it slightly easier for a batter to draw a walk, I’m fine with that.
If we’re still worried about missed calls, we could perhaps give each team one challenge per game. My guess is that they would mostly be saved for fixing the rare egregious mistakes.
I’ll add one additional suggestion. My guess is that if MLB is willing to invest in technology, there would be ways to speed up the processing and communication of the prompts to the umpires, with the objective of giving them the prompts in less than one second. I’m not an expert on this technology, but I do know that Wall Street firms have invested in technology that allows them to process newly arrived economic data and communicate it for trades in milliseconds, so it suggests to me that such technology is probably available with some investment.
Why the ABS challenge system may be leading us in the wrong direction
While the ABS challenge system does allow teams to correct some bad ball and strike calls, and thus is modestly better than the current system, my concern is that it is likely to stall further progress on improving these calls. It will change the discussion from, “Wow, I can’t believe how badly the umpire messed up that call” to “Why did our team waste our challenges when we really needed one at the end of the game?” That is, the focus will inevitably shift from the decisions of the umpires in making the calls to the decisions of the players in deciding when and how to use the challenges.
I expect that will leave us in an equilibrium where umpires continue to miss eight or nine calls per game, catchers continue focus on framing, and there is very little incentive or desire to move toward a less error-prone system. And if that’s where we end up, I think it will be regrettable.
At least September wasn’t as bad as August. After ending August with an eight-game losing streak and going 9–19 for the month, the Nationals took seven of their first eight games in September and finished the month with a 13–13 record. And one of their rookie outfielders, Daylen Lile, emerged as a remarkable hitter, gaining national attention. September wasn’t a great month for the Nats, by any means, but it was one with several very hopeful signs.
The month began with the Nats at home starting a three-game series against the Marlins, having just been swept by the Rays. MacKenzie Gore had gone on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, so the Nats called up left-handed pitcher, Andrew Alvarez, to make his major league debut. The Nats had drafted the 26-year-old pitcher in the 12th round in 2021. It turned out that he would be the one to stop the team’s losing streak, as he pitched five scoreless innings, allowing only one hit, and the Nats shut out the Marlins 2–0. Alvarez became only the second Nats starter (along with Mitchell Parker) since Stephen Strasburg (in 2010) to win his major league debut. The Nats went on to win the next two games against the Marlins, sweeping the series and giving the team a 3–3 record on the home stand. Alvarez would remain in the rotation for the rest of the month.
Their next road trip began in Chicago with a three-game series against the Cubs, who were leading the race for the first wild-card slot. The Nats lost their first game but won the next two. Game 2 was a pitching duel that the Nats won by a 2–1 score. In game 3, the Nats were trailing 3 to 1 going into the top of the ninth inning but scored 5 runs to take a 6–3 lead, and they held on to win it in the bottom of the ninth.
During the Chicago series, we learned that former Nationals manager Davey Johnson had died on September 5 at age 82. As manager from 2011 to 2013, Johnson played a crucial role in shaping the first Nats team to win the division in 2012.
The road trip concluded in Miami with a 4-game rematch against the Marlins. The first game was a 15–7 blow-out victory by the Nats. They won the second game as well, giving them four consecutive wins and a 7–1 record in their first eight games of the month. But they lost the last two games of the series, including a 5–0 shutout loss in the final game to Ryan Weathers and three Marlins relievers. The Nats’ record on the road trip was 4–3.
At home again, the Nats faced the Pirates and won the first game by a 6 to 5 score, scoring 4 runs in the bottom of the seventh inning to take the lead, but nearly gave it back in the ninth. The Nats lost the second game, but in the finale, they scored in the bottom of the eighth to take a 1-run lead, which they held for the win. Then came a four-game series against Atlanta, which the Braves swept. The Nats were blown out in an 11 to 3 loss in the first game. Game 3 was a pitching duel that remained scoreless after nine innings (with Chris Sale pitching 8 scoreless innings for Atlanta and MacKenzie Gore going 5⅓ for the Nats). But in the top of the tenth, the Braves scored 5 runs and won 5–0. The Nats were 2–5 on the home stand.
Their final road trip took the Nats first to New York to play the Mets, who held a 2-game lead in the race for the final wild card. The Mets won the first game, but then it was the Nats’ turn to play the spoiler. In game 2, the Nats surrendered 3 runs in the eighth and ninth innings to make the game a 3–3 tie but scored 2 runs in the top of the 11th while holding the Mets scoreless to win the game. In Game 3, the Nats again played the spoiler, beating the Mets 3 to 2 behind a 3⅔ inning save by Mitchell Parker and some amazing defense by Jacob Young. While the Nats were taking two of three games against the Mets, the Reds had won all three of their games to move into a tie with the Mets for the wild card. The Reds, furthermore, held the tie breaker against the Mets, so the tie effectively represented a lead over the Mets. A week later, with the two teams still tied, the Reds would claim the final wild card. While the Nats were not the only spoilers for the highly compensated Mets team (who went 7–14 over their last 21 games), our guys did help bring them down.
The Nats next went to Atlanta to play three games against the Braves. The Nats lost the first two games and won the third game, with the last two games each determined by a one-run margin. The Nats record on the road trip was 3–3.
On September 24, news broke that the Nats were finalizing a deal with Paul Toboni, a 35-year-old senior vice president and assistant general manager with the Red Sox, to serve as the new president of baseball operations for the Nats. His signing was officially announced on October 1. Toboni brings a background in both scouting and analytics and is a highly regarded young baseball executive.
Returning home, the Nats finished the season with a three-game series against the White Sox. Behind in the first game, the team battled back, scoring 4 runs in the bottom of the eighth to take a 9–8 lead, only to give up 2 runs in the top of the ninth and lose the game 10–9. In the second game, the Nats scored 3 runs in the bottom of the seventh and one run in the bottom of the eighth to take a 6–4 lead, and were able to hold on to the lead, winning 6–5. In the last game of the season, the Nats were shutout 8–0, getting only 1 hit in 6 innings against starter Shane Smith, after which three Sox relievers combined for three scoreless, hitless innings.
The final series featured a celebration of the career of broadcaster Bob Carpenter, who had provided Nationals play-by-play broadcasts on MASN TV for 20 years, as he concluded his 42-year career as a baseball announcer. I know that I and many other fans will miss his broadcasts. He was also honored for being an extremely nice and generous man. In addition, former Nats center fielder Michael A Taylor, playing for the White Sox, announced his retirement and was given a standing ovation in his final game, coming at the end of his 12th season as a major league player. He’ll be remembered both for his defensive work as an elite center fielder and for his postseason performance with the bat—over 16 postseason games from 2016 to 2019 with the Nats, he hit .316/.395/.632 with 4 home runs and 10 RBI.
The Nats finished the 2025 season with a disappointing 66–96 (.407) record, last in the National League East, next to last (ahead of only the Rockies) in the NL, and third from last in MLB (ahead of the Rockies and the White Sox). The Nats were 30 games behind the division champion Phillies and 10 games behind the fourth-place Braves. They wound up winning 5 fewer games than last season.
Roster moves
I’ve already mentioned that pitcher Andrew Alvarez made his major league debut on September 1. His battery mate in that game, CJ Stubbs, also made his major league debut that day. The 28-year-old long-time minor league catcher, brother of Phillies catcher Garrett Stubbs, was a 2019 10th-round draft pick by the Astros. After six years in the Astros system, this year he signed a minor league contract with the Nats. He is the only Nationals catcher to have caught a shutout in his debut. But his stay with the team was short-lived, as he was optioned back to Rochester the next day.
On September 2, the Nats signed 32-year-old free agent catcher Jorge Alfaro. From 2016 to 2023, Alfaro appeared in 496 games for the Phillies, Marlins, Padres, Rockies, and Red Sox, but had spent most of the 2025 season playing in Nashville for the Brewers’ AAA team. Alfaro debuted with the Nationals on September 3 and played in 14 games for the Nats by the end of the season.
On September 17, 26-year-old right-handed relief pitcher Sauryn Lao debuted for the Nationals. He had previously pitched in two major league games for the Mariners and was selected off waivers by the Nats on September 3. The Dominican player was originally signed as a corner infielder by the Dodgers in 2016. In 2023 he switched to pitching and last winter was signed as a minor league free agent by the Mariners.
On September 23, 29-year-old right-handed relief pitcher Julian Fernandez debuted for the Nationals. He had previously pitched 6 games for the Rockies in 2021 and 1 game for the Dodgers earlier this year and had also spent time in the minor league systems of the Giants, Marlins, and Blue Jays. The Nats selected him off waivers on August 17.
On September 11, MacKenzie Gore came off the 15-day injured list and returned to the rotation. The team temporarily switched to using a 6-man rotation, but after making three September starts, Gore returned to the injured list again on September 23 with right ankle impingement. Mason Thompson joined him on the injured list with right biceps tendinitis. On September 14, Cole Henry‘s season came to an early end when he went on the injured list with a back strain. Top pitching prospect Jarlin Susana had surgery to repair his right lat muscle, a procedure that could delay his return to pitching next spring.
Monthly Record:
13–13 (.500)
Pythagorean Record:
10–16 (4.46 R/G – 5.69 RA/G). The Nats had a 6–2 record in one-run games during September.
September MVP:
- Daylen Lile (.391/.440/.772, 6 HR, 7 3B, 20 R, 19 RBI, 100 PA, 230 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR). Lile led MLB in slugging percentage (.772), hits (36), triples (7), and total bases (71) for the month, and led the NL in all those categories as well as OPS (1.212), batting average (.391), and wRC+ (230). He was named as BOTH National League Player of the Month AND National League Rookie of the Month. Sarah Langs informs us that he was the first player with 7+ triples and 6+ home runs in a calendar month since Willie Mays in June 1957. Fangraphs did a very nice, laudatory post on Lile.
Starting pitcher of the month:
- Andrew Alvarez (1–1, 3.09 RA/9, 5 GS, 23⅓ IP, 7.7 K/9, 1.114 WHIP, 0.7 RA9-WAR, 0.6 fWAR). A very nice performance for his first month in the major leagues.
Relief pitcher of the month:
- Clayton Beeter (0-1, 1.80 RA/9, 11 G, 10 IP, 16.2 K/9, 1.200 WHIP, 2.21 RE24, 6 shutdowns, 2 meltdowns, 0.5 RA9-WAR, 0.4 fWAR).
Worst month:
- Riley Adams (.132/.207/.151, 0 HR, 4 R, 2 RBI, 58 PA, 5 wRC+, –0.5 fWAR).
Best start:
- Andrew Alvarez (September 13, 5–1 loss to the Pirates at home) pitched 6 scoreless innings, giving up 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 5 for a game score of 70. When he was replaced, the Nats were ahead 1 to 0, but the relievers gave up 4 runs in the eighth and another in the ninth to lose the game.
Worst start:
- Jake Irvin (September 5, 11–5 loss to the Cubs in Chicago) gave up 7 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 3⅓ innings with 2 strikeouts for a game score of 20.
Tough losses:
- MacKenzie Gore (September 11, 5–0 loss to the Marlins in Miami) pitched 5 innings and gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 for a game score of 53.
- Brad Lord (September 23, 3–2 loss to the Braves in Atlanta) pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4 for a game score of 59. When he was replaced, the Nats were trailing 2 to 1.
Cheap win:
- Cade Cavalli (September 8, 15–7 win over the Marlins in Miami) pitched 5 innings and gave up 2 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 1 for a game score of 47. When he was replaced, the Nats were ahead 11 to 2.
Biggest shutdown:
- Mitchell Parker (September 21, 3–2 win over the Mets in New York). With the Nats ahead 3 to 2, Parker got the call to replace starter Jake Irvin in the bottom of the sixth with one out and runners on first and second. Parker got out of the inning with a pop fly and a strikeout. He came back in the bottom of the seventh and got a lineout, a strikeout, and, after giving up a two-out single, a fly out. In the eighth, he got two more fly outs, gave up another two-out single, and ended the inning with a groundout. Back on the mound for the bottom of the ninth, Parker needed help from his center fielder when Jacob Young robbed a potential home run from Francisco Alvarez for the first out. Next came another fly out and a lineout, and Parker had completed a remarkable 3⅔ inning save, the longest in Nationals history, holding onto a one-run lead the whole time. (Win probability added/WPA +.585).
Worst meltdown:
- Jose A. Ferrer (September 26, 10–9 loss to the White Sox at home). When Ferrer got the call to get the last three outs in the top of the ninth, the Nats had just scored 4 runs in the bottom of the eighth to take a 9–8 lead. Ferrer got a groundout for the first out, then he made an error in trying to field a dribbler, putting a runner on base. The next batter, Colson Montgomery, hit a 2-run home run, putting the White Sox ahead 10 to 9. Ferrer got out of the inning without allowing any more runs, but the damage had been done, and the Nats went on to lose the game. (WPA –.637).
Walk off:
- None
Clutch hits:
- Josh Bell (September 7, 6–3 win over the Cubs in Chicago). The Nats were trailing 3–2 with no outs in the top of the ninth, runners on first and second, when Bell came to the plate. Bell launched a towering fly ball that cleared the fence in left-center field and gave the Nats the lead. (WPA +.493)
- Daylen Lile (September 20, 5–3 win over the Mets in New York). The game was tied 3–3 in the top of the eleventh, with one out and a runner on first. Lile crushed a line drive that bounced of the fence in deep center field. Sprinting to get a triple, he was waved home and scored a two-run inside-the-park home run, giving Washington the lead. (WPA +.474)
Choke:
- Dylan Crews (September 15, 11–3 loss to the Braves at home). Trailing the Braves 2–1 in the bottom of the fourth inning, the Nats had loaded the bases with one out. Crews swung and barely tapped the ball in front of home plate. Braves catcher, Drake Baldwin, fielded the ball, stepped on home plate for a force out, and threw to first base to complete a double play, shutting down the Nats’ rally. (WPA –.197).
Memorable fielding plays:
- James Wood guns down the tying run at the plate.
- Dylan Crews makes a great sliding catch.
- Nasim Nuñez makes a spectacular diving play and throws a bullet to get the force at second.
- Jacob Young uses his soccer skills to kick the ball into his glove and make one of the most amazing, acrobatic catches I’ve ever seen.
- In the same game, ninth inning, Jacob Young robs a home run to preserve the one-run lead.
After the trade deadline, the Nationals were left with a young team, and they spent August giving their young players a chance to see what they could do. The month, overall, was a disappointment, with the Nats going 9–19 against opposing teams that mostly had winning records and were in playoff contention.
The Nationals began August at home facing the Brewers, who had the best record in baseball. The Nats were swept in the three-game series by scores of 16 to 9, 8 to 2, and 14 to 3. They next faced the Athletics, and the series opened with another drubbing, a 16 to 7 loss. The Nats managed to barely win the next game, 2 to 1 in a walk-off victory, but were shut out in the rubber game. The Nats were 1–5 during the home stand.
Next came a road trip that began in San Francisco with a three-game series against the Giants. The Nats were shut out in the first game, with five Giants pitchers combining to allow the Nats only 4 hits. The Nats came back to win the last two games, with the finale an 8–0 blow-out win, in which MacKenzie Gore outpitched future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander. The road trip concluded against the Royals in Kansas City. The Nats lost the first two games but managed to win the final game by scoring a go-ahead run in the top of the ninth (after having given up a tying run in the bottom of the eighth). The Nats record on the road trip was 3–3.
Back home, the Nats played a four-game series against the division-leading Phillies. In the first game, the Nats scored two runs in the bottom of the seventh inning to take a 3–2 lead and held onto the lead for a victory. They lost the second game, but in the third game Cade Cavalli pitched 7 scoreless innings to record his first major league win in a 2–0 victory. The Phillies won the fourth game to split the series.
The Nats next hosted the Mets, who were ahead in the race for the final wild-card slot. In the first game the Nats were blown out, 8 to 1. But in the second game, the Nats were able to cling to a 5–4 lead for a victory, and they won the third game 9 to 3. The Nats finished the home stand with a 4–3 record.
On their next road trip, they again faced the Phillies, this time in Philadelphia. In the series opener, the Nats scored two runs in the top of the ninth inning to take a 5 to 4 lead and held on to win it. They were unable to complete a late-inning rally and lost the second game 6 to 4 and also fell short in the third game 3 to 2. Their next series was against the Yankees in New York, and this time there weren’t any close games as the Nats were swept the three-game series. In the first game, Jacob Young managed to hit a grand slam in the ninth inning for his first home run of the year, but the Nats still lost 10 to 5. The third game was a real blow out as the Yankees hit 6 home runs to win it 11 to 2. The Nats record on the road trip was 1–5.
The month concluded for the Nats with a three-game series at home against the Rays. The Nats were swept and finished the month with an 8-game losing streak and a 9–19 record for the month.
A pleasant surprise was that the bullpen, which had been the weakest part of the team most of the season, did fairly well during August. The relief pitchers had a park-adjusted ERA– of 115 in August (that is, 15 percent worse than average), which ranked 23rd among the 30 MLB teams, but their win-probability added (WPA) of 1.18 (a measure of how well they did in high-leverage spots) ranked 9th, and their 9 meltdowns during the month was tied for fewest among MLB teams. Conversely, the starting pitchers were pretty awful, with their ERA– of 177 ranking dead last. The Nats’ batting, as measured by their weighted runs created (wRC+) of 90, was below average but not awful, ranking 20th among the 30 teams.
Roster moves
On August 5 left-handed relief pitcher PJ Poulin made his major league debut, pitching a scoreless inning and striking out the final batter he faced. The Nationals had claimed the 29-year-old pitcher off waivers from the Tigers. Poulin had been drafted by the Rockies in 2018, and his contract was purchased by the Tigers before the 2024 season.
Also, on August 5th, right-handed relief pitcher Clayton Beeter made his debut with the Nationals. He gave up a home run to the first batter he faced but then got 3 strikeouts (along with 2 walks) to finish the inning. The 26-year-old was a second-round draft pick by the Dodgers in 2020 and had pitched for the Yankees in 5 games in 2024 and 2025. The Nats obtained him from the Yankees in the Amed Rosario trade.
On August 6, Cade Cavalli made his return to the Nationals rotation, pitching 4-1/3 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts in a game the Nats ultimately won by a score of 2 to 1. His return came almost three years after his debut and only previous major league appearance in August 2022. The 2020 first-round draft pick had injured his elbow in 2023 spring training and undergone Tommy John surgery. His recovery took longer than expected, but after the departure of Michael Soroka at the trade deadline, Cavalli was ready to take his place in the rotation. Shinnosuke Ogasawara, who had started two games for the Nats in July, moved into the bullpen as a long reliever.
On August 14, Dylan Crews returned to the lineup almost three months after going on the disabled list with an oblique strain. To make room, the Nats surprisingly designated Nathaniel Lowe for assignment the day after he had hit a grand slam home run; two days later, having cleared waivers, Lowe was released. Lowe played 119 games for the Nats and hit .216/.292/.373 with 16 home runs and 68 RBI. After his release, Lowe was quickly signed by the playoff-contending Boston Red Sox, who have used him as a platoon first baseman.
On August 27, Drew Millas suffered a dislocation and fracture of his index finger when his catching hand was struck by a bat for a catcher’s interference play. Initially placed on the 10-day injured list, he underwent surgery to stabilize the fracture and repair the joint and was later placed on the 60-day disabled list, confirming that he would miss the rest of the season. On August 30, MacKenzie Gore was placed on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder inflammation.
Record:
9–19 (.321)
Pythagorean Record:
8–20 (3.86 R/G – 6.36 RA/G). The Nats had a 5–1 record in one-run games during August, which helped keep their win-loss record better than their Pythagorean record.
August MVP:
- Jose A Ferrer (2-0, 1.46 RA/9, 10 G, 12⅓ IP, 8.8 K/9, 1.054 WHIP, 4.35 RE24, 6 shutdowns, 0 meltdown, 0.6 RA9-WAR, 0.5 fWAR).
Position player of the month:
- Riley Adams (.263/.349/.368, 2 HR, 11 R, 6 RBI, 86 PA, 105 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR). Nothing flashy, just a solid month as he stepped into a full-time role. Other Nats players with 0.3 fWAR during August included Drew Millas, Paul DeJong, and James Wood, and a case could be made for any of them.
Starting pitcher of the month:
- Cade Cavalli (1–1, 5.47 RA/9, 5 GS, 24⅔ IP, 8.0 K/9, 1.581 WHIP, 0.1 RA9-WAR, –0.1 fWAR). His stats were pretty much replacement level but still better than those of the Nats’ other starters.
Worst month:
- Mitchell Parker (0–5, 10.54 RA/9, 6 GS, 27⅓ IP, 6.6 K/9, 1.720 WHIP, –1.1 RA9-WAR, –0.5 fWAR). Painful
Best start:
- MacKenzie Gore (August 10, 8–0 win over the Giants in San Francisco) pitched 6 scoreless innings, giving up 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 10 for a game score of 75.
Worst start:
- MacKenzie Gore (August 5, 16–7 loss to the Athletics at home) gave up 8 runs on 12 hits and 1 walk in 3 innings with no strikeouts for a game score of 2.
Tough losses:
- MacKenzie Gore (August 26, 5–1 loss to the Yankees in New York) pitched 5 innings and gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3 for a game score of 50.
- Mitchell Parker (August 29, 4–1 loss to the Rays at home) pitched 6⅓ innings and gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and no walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 56.
Cheap win:
- Brad Lord (August 20, 5–4 win over the Mets at home) pitched 5⅓ innings and gave up 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 for a game score of 40.
Biggest shutdown:
- Jose A Ferrer (August 9, 4–2 win over the Giants in San Francisco). With the Nats ahead 4 to 1, Cole Henry had been called on to pitch the bottom of the eighth. Henry got the first out, then gave up two singles and a walk to load the bases. That was enough for Miguel Cairo and he called on his new lefty closer to get a five-out save. The first batter that Ferrer faced hit a sacrifice fly to make it 4 to 2, but that was all for the Giants. Ferrer got a strikeout to end the eighth inning. In the ninth, the first batter reached on an infield single, which was followed by a lineout and another single, putting runners on first and second. Ferrer got the next batter to ground into a game-ending double play to complete his first save as the new closer. (Win probability added/WPA +.244).
Worst meltdown:
- When Konnor Pilkington (August 15, 6–2 loss to the Phillies at home). When Pilkington got the call in the top of the seventh, the game was tied 2–2 and there were runners on first and second with one out. Pilkington got Trea Turner to pop up for the second out but then gave up a three-run homer to Kyle Schwarber followed by a solo homer to Bryce Harper, leaving the Nats trailing 6 to 2. (WPA –0.373).
Walk off:
- CJ Abrams (August 6, 2–1 win over the Athletics at home). When Abrams came to bat in the bottom of the ninth, the score was tied 1 to 1, and Robert Hassell III was on second base with one out. Abrams singled to left field and third-base coach Ricky Gutierrez aggressively waved Hassell home. Fortunately, the throw was a bit offline, allowing Hassell to score the winning run. (WPA +.301).
Clutch hit:
- Daylen Lile (August 22, 5–4 win over the Phillies in Philadelphia). In the top of the ninth inning, Lile came to bat with one out, Dylan Crews on second base, and the Nats trailing 4–2. Lile singled to left field, with Crews beating the throw to score the tying run, and Lile taking second on the throw (WPA +.329). Two pitches later, Lile stole third base and scored on a throwing error to give the Nats the lead (WPA +.259).
Choke:
- Jacob Young (August 8, 5–0 loss to the Giants in San Francisco). Trailing the Giants 2–0 in the top of the fifth inning, Young came to bat with one out and the bases loaded. He grounded into an inning-ending double play. (WPA –.196).
Memorable fielding plays:
- Robert Hassell III makes a leaping catch at the wall to rob a home run.
- Dylan Crews charges in to make a diving catch.
- Dylan Crews makes a perfect throw to gun down Harrison Bader at home.
- Jacob Young sprinted and made a marvelous diving catch.
- Brady House makes a great diving stop and guns down the runner.
After a rare winning record during May, the Nationals were hoping that their momentum would carry forward into June. Instead, their offense collapsed, they endured an 11-game losing streak, and they had the worst record in the major leagues for the month of June.
June opened with the Nats in Arizona playing the Diamondbacks in the final game of a road trip. In their last four games of May their offense had exploded, as they scored at least 9 runs in each game against the Mariners and the D-backs. But, in what would prove to be an omen for the new month, the Nats only scored a single run on June 1, losing the game 3–1, but they still won the series two games to one and ended the road trip with a 4–2 record.
Returning to DC, the Nationals faced the Cubs, who held first place in the NL Central division. In the first game they let an early lead slip away, but in game 2 they shut out the Cubs 2–0, with MacKenzie Gore giving up only 3 hits in 7 scoreless innings. They then lost the third game by a 7–1 score, having scored only 6 runs in the three-game series. Next came three games against the Rangers. In the first game the Nats won another 2–0 shutout, with Michael Soroka giving up only 2 hits in 6 scoreless innings in a 1 hour, 50-minute game (the fastest 9-inning game in team history). At this point the Nats had a 30–33 record. But before their next win was recorded almost two weeks later, their record had dropped to 30–44. In game 2 of the Rangers series, it was the Nats’ turn to be shut out as Jacob DeGrom allowed only 2 hits in 7 scoreless innings. The Nats then lost the finale, losing the series and ending the home stand with a 2–4 record, having scored only 10 runs in the six-game stretch.
Next came a quick 3-game road trip to New York to play the then division-leading Mets. In the first game, the Nats were ahead going into the 8th inning, but the Mets scored two in the bottom of the 8th to tie it, then won it in the 10th inning. The Nats lost the second game 5–0 as David Peterson pitched a now-rare 9-inning shutout. In the third game, the Nats scored three runs in the top of the 9th and had runners at second and third with one out but were unable to complete a comeback and fell to the Mets 4–3, completing the three-game sweep.
Returning home, the Nats expected to have an opportunity to rebound as they faced the two teams with the worst records in the National League—the Marlins and the Rockies. The first game against the Marlins was a rare slugfest, with the Marlins jumping out to an early lead and the Nats ultimately unable to catch them—final score, Marlins 11, Nats 9. In game 2, the Nats again made a late effort, scoring two runs in the bottom of the ninth and getting the tying and go-ahead runs on 1st and 3rd with no outs, but were unable to score them and lost 4 to 3. Game 3 was the same old story of not enough offense as the fell 3 to 1 for the series sweep and their eighth consecutive loss.
The first game of the Rockies series on June 16 featured the major league debut of third baseman Brady House. The 22-year-old right-handed hitter had 13 home runs, 15 doubles, and a .304 average in 65 games at Rochester this season. He was the Nats first-round pick in the 2021 draft (11th overall) as a shortstop but switched to third base after missing much of the 2022 season with a back injury. Meanwhile, long-time Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos returned to Washington to formally retire from baseball at age 37.
Entering the series, the Rockies had an historically bad 14–57 record, by far the worst in baseball. But in the first game they shocked the Nats, who entered the 9th inning with a 4–3 lead, by scoring three runs in the top of the 9th to beat the Nats 6–4. The Nats went on to lose the next two games by scores of 10 to 6 and 3 to 1, giving the Nationals an 11-game losing streak, one shy of the club record of 12 consecutive losses in August 2008. Over the 11-game span they allowed 60 runs (5.5 per game) but scored only 33 (3 per game). As we’ll see in the section “Tough losses” below, the starting pitchers for the most part did their job, but poor relief pitching, lack of offense, and poor timing doomed the team.
On June 19, their luck finally turned, but just barely. In the final fourth game of the Rockies series, the two teams were tied 2–2 after nine innings. After a scoreless tenth inning, the Rockies scored a run in the top of the 11th to take the lead. In the bottom of the inning, the Nats were down to their final out when James Wood belted a walk-off 2-run home run to win the game and end the losing streak. Wood’s blast should enter the pantheon of historic Nationals home runs. The Nats’ record for the home stand was 1–6.
Next came a 9-game road trip to California. It began in Los Angeles facing the division-leading Dodgers. In the first game the Nats ended up just short, losing the game 6 to 5. They then won the second game and led the third game 3–0 after five innings but then surrendered 13 runs in innings 6 through 8 for a 13–7 loss. Next up came a series against the Padres in San Diego. The Nats won the first game 10–6 but lost the next two games by a single run each, 4 to 3 and 1 to 0, with Pivetta pitching 7 innings for the Padres in the shutout.
The road trip concluded with a three-game series against the Angels in Anaheim. In the first game, the Nats were behind 9–8 after five innings but scored 7 unanswered runs in innings 6 through 9 for a 15–9 win. They lost the second game 8–2 and were trailing in the third game but scored a run in the top of the ninth to tie the game, before scoring three more in the top of the 11th for the win. The Angels showed their respect by issuing four consecutive intentional walks to James Wood, making him the first player to get four intentional passes in a game since Barry Bonds in September 2004. The Nats’ record for their road trip was 4–5.
The Nationals’ record for the month of June was 7–19, a .269 winning percentage that was worst in the majors and the Nats’ worst monthly W-L record since July 2022, when they went 6–19. After starting the month with a 28–30 record, in 3rd place in the NL East, 8 games behind the Mets and Phillies who were then tied for 1st place, they ended the month in last place with a 35–49 record, 14½ games behind the division-leading Phillies.
On June 14, right-handed relief pitcher Ryan Loutos made his debut with the Nationals. The Nats claimed the 26-year-old on waivers from the Dodgers; Loutos had made two major league appearances for the Dodgers earlier this season and three appearances for the Cardinals in 2024. He took the place of Andrew Chafin, who went on the 15-day injured list with a hamstring strain. The other notable injury was to Keibert Ruiz, who was struck in the head by a foul ball while seated in the dugout, after which he was placed on the 7-day concussion injured list.
Record:
7–19 (.269)
Pythagorean Record:
9–17 (3.92 R/G – 5.19 RA/G)
June MVP:
- CJ Abrams (.308/.368/.505, 4 HR, 20 R, 12 RBI, 8 SB, 0 CS, 117 PA, 142 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR).
Starting pitcher of the month:
- MacKenzie Gore (1–3, 3.23 RA/9, 5 GS, 30⅔ IP, 8.2 K/9, .299 opp OBP, 0.9 RA9-WAR, 0.7 fWAR).
Relief pitcher of the month:
- Brad Lord (1-0, 1.04 RA/9, 13 G, 17⅓ IP, 6.2 K/9, .212 opp OBP, 4.28 RE24, 5 shutdowns, 3 meltdowns, 0.9 RA9-WAR, 0.2 fWAR).
Worst month:
- Keibert Ruiz (.167/.164/.204, 0 HR, 1 R, 2 RBI, 55 PA, –6 wRC+, –0.7 fWAR).
Best start:
- MacKenzie Gore (June 4, 2–0 win over the Cubs at home) pitched 7 scoreless innings, giving up 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7 for a game score of 77.
Worst start:
- Jake Irvin (June 27, 15–9 win over the Angels in Anaheim) gave up 9 runs (8 earned) on 9 hits and 4 walks in 4⅓ innings with 5 strikeouts for a game score of 12. The Nats later came back from the 9–8 deficit to win the game.
Tough losses:
- Mitchell Parker (June 7, 5–0 loss to the Rangers at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 unearned runs on 4 hits and no walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 65.
- Trevor Williams (June 14, 4–3 loss to the Marlins at home) pitched 5⅓ innings and gave up 2 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 3 for a game score of 50.
- MacKenzie Gore (June 15, 3–1 loss to the Marlins at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 runs on 8 hits and 1 walk while striking out 5 for a game score of 52.
- Michael Soroka (June 17, 10–6 loss to the Rockies at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9 for a game score of 57.
- Mitchell Parker (June 18, 3–1 loss to the Rockies at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 1 run on 6 hits and no walks while striking out 8 for a game score of 64.
- MacKenzie Gore (June 25, 1–0 loss to the Padres in San Diego) pitched 6 innings and gave up 1 run on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 61.
Cheap win:
- Mitchell Parker (June 23, 10–6 win over the Padres in San Diego) pitched 6 innings and gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 1 for a game score of 47.
Biggest shutdown:
- Kyle Finnegan (June 29, 7–4 win in 11 innings over the Angels in Anaheim). Finnegan was well rested, having faced only two batters (both in non-save situations) in the previous 9 days. The Nats had scored a run in the top of the ninth to tie the game at 4 runs apiece, and Finnegan got the call to preserve the tie in the bottom of the inning. He issued a leadoff walk, then retired the next two batters on a flyball and a groundout, before getting the final out on a caught stealing, having thrown 12 pitches. The Nats didn’t score in the top of the 10th, so Finnegan was back out there in the bottom of the 10th, this time with an automatic runner on second. He needed only 7 pitches to get a flyball, a strikeout, and a groundout to complete the frame. The Nats scored three runs in the top of the 11, making the score 7–4. For the first time in his career, Finnegan came out again for a third inning of work. This time he needed 11 pitches to get a strikeout followed by two groundouts to secure the victory for the Nats. (Win probability added/WPA +.546).
Worst meltdown:
- Kyle Finnegan (June 16, 6–4 loss to the Rockies at home). The Nats were ahead 4 to 3 when Finnegan got the call to close it out in the top of the ninth. The first batter he faced, Hunter Goodman, blasted a fastball over the fence in left-center to tie the game. Finnegan then got a flyball for the first out, but the next batter singled. Then came a pop fly for the second out and a stolen base. Then on a 1–2 count, Mickey Moniak turned on another fastball and slugged it into the right-field bullpen, putting the Nats behind 6–4. The sixth batter then grounded out to end the inning, but the damage had been done. (WPA –0.752).
Clutch hit / Walk off:
- James Wood (June 19, 4–3 win over the Rockies in 11 innings at home). The Rockies had scored in the top of the 11th to take a 3–2 lead, threatening the Nats with their 12th consecutive loss. When Wood came to bat in the bottom of the inning, Riley Adams, the automatic runner, was at third and the Nats were down to their final out. On a 1–0 count, Wood launched the ball 428 feet over the center field fence, breaking the losing streak and giving Wood his first career walk-off home run. (WPA +.840)
Choke:
- James Wood (June 14, 4–3 loss to the Marlins at home). Trailing the Marlins 4–1 entering the bottom of the 9th, the Nats had rallied to score two runs and had the bases loaded with two outs when Wood stepped to the plate. On a 1–2 fastball, Wood popped out to end the game. (WPA –.270).
Memorable fielding plays:
- Jose Tena guns down the runner and Keibert Ruiz applies the tag.
- Alex Call makes a fantastic catch (or did he?) It survived the challenge, so I guess he did.
- CJ Abrams makes a beautiful diving play.
- Jacob Young gets an outstanding jump and makes and incredible dive on a ball with only a 10% catch probability.
- Daylen Lile makes a leaping catch at the wall.
A baseball year is 162 games, and on June 28 the Nationals played their 162nd game since James Wood debuted on July 1, 2024.
James Wood
| G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 162 | 703 | 608 | 95 | 166 | 32 | 4 | 31 | 105 | 24 | .273 | .367 | .492 |
His wRC+ was 139 and his overall offensive and defensive performance (or wins above replacement) was worth 4.7 wins according to Fangraphs and 4.9 wins according to Baseball Reference.
Let’s compare his record with Juan Soto‘s first baseball year:
Juan Soto
| G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 150 | 644 | 541 | 95 | 151 | 31 | 1 | 28 | 94 | 8 | .279 | .393 | .495 |
Soto debuted on May 20, 2018* and the team’s 162nd game came on May 17, 2019. He missed 12 games during that span. His batting average and slugging percentage were very similar to Wood’s, but Soto drew 101 walks (versus 89 for Wood), so his on-base percentage was 26 points higher. Soto’s wRC+ was 136. Wood’s extra playing time and slightly better defensive statistics leave him a little bit ahead of Soto in fWAR (4.7 to 4.2).
(* Soto shows up in the record as playing in a game on May 15, 2018, five days before his major league debut. It was a suspended game that was completed on June 18, with Soto playing in the final three innings of that game. I’ve counted it as part of Soto’s first baseball year.)
Let’s add Bryce Harper to the comparison:
Bryce Harper
| G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 158 | 677 | 604 | 111 | 170 | 30 | 9 | 29 | 73 | 19 | .281 | .352 | .505 |
Harper’s first baseball year was from April 28, 2012 to April 23, 2013. Harper had fewer walks than Wood (65 compared to 89), so his OBP is lower. But his 9 triples helped him have the highest slugging percentage of the three. His wRC+ was 132, the lowest of the three players, but he played center field well, so his defensive value boosted his fWAR to 5.8, the highest of the three players.
Overall, Wood’s first statistical year looks extremely good. Compared to all MLB position players over the last year, he ranks 22nd in fWAR, indicating that he’s been playing at an elite All-Star level, though not quite at an MVP level. We’ve seen that his first statistical year was comparable to those of Soto and Harper, though we should emphasize that they were two and a half years younger than Wood when they completed those seasons. The other thing that’s notable about Wood is that going from 2024 to 2025, his performance has substantially improved. If he can keep it up, his first full season will be one to remember.
It’s that time of year when the MLB All-Star Teams are selected and I select my NL all-star team. As usual, my selections are based on objective statistics—primarily three statistics: wins above replacement (WAR) for 2025, for 2024, and for the player’s career. (See last year’s article for details on the weights that I use.)
I use a standard formula in order to treat all teams and players fairly. In contrast to most writers, I think it’s important to include statistics from the prior season because research shows that at takes at least a season for the most important statistics (such as on-base percentage and slugging percentage) to stabilize and become reliable indicators of a player’s ability. For example, Juan Soto has gotten a lot of criticism from Mets fans for his “disappointing” performance so far this season. After all, he’s hit “only” 17 home runs, his batting average is “only” .253, and his season-to-date fWAR is “only” 2.1. Those, of course, are very good numbers, but if we were only looking at the statistics for the 2025 season (through June 24), they might not be enough for him to make the All-Star team. But in assessing his ability and likely future performance, we shouldn’t ignore that fact that last season he hit .288 with a .419 OBP and 41 home runs and was worth 8.2 WAR. Soto remains one of the best players in baseball and is likely to add an additional 3 WAR by the end of the season. He deserves to be an All Star.
Like the MLB All-Star Teams, my NL team requires that all teams in the league be represented. For the last two seasons, the Nationals representatives were consolation picks—players who wouldn’t have made it based on the statistics alone but were selected ahead of another player with more points in order for their team to be represented. This season, the Nats have three emerging stars, and I hoped that one of them would make it on their statistical record. CJ Abrams has earned 2.5 fWAR this season (after 1.9 last season) and my system gives him 17.6 points, a number that puts him in the vicinity of all-star selection. Unfortunately for him, the shortstop position is stacked in the NL, and his points total only ranked sixth among NL shortstops (behind Lindor, Turner, De La Cruz, Betts, and Swanson). So, Abrams didn’t make it. This season MacKenzie Gore has emerged as an outstanding pitcher, with a 3.19 ERA and 2.94 FIP through June 24, worth 2.6 fWAR and 2.6 RA9-WAR, giving him 18.1 points in my system. The result is that he also falls just a little bit short of making my team (though he pitched well this afternoon in today’s 1–0 loss, so maybe if I reran the numbers tomorrow…)
James Wood seems to have had the best chance of making my team without requiring a consolation pick. While he doesn’t pick up many points from his 2024 season, his 3.4 WAR so far in 2025 gives him enough points (22.7) that he was in the running. As with Abrams, part of his problem is that this season the corner outfield position is stacked in the NL. (My system treats center field as a separate position, selecting two center fielders, but combines the right- and left-field positions to select four corner outfielders.) Three corner outfielders—Tucker, Carroll, and Tatis—all actually have slightly more WAR than Wood this season (as well as significantly more in 2024), so they are all ranked ahead of Wood. As we’ve also discussed, Soto gets picked based on his superb 2024 season (along with some good statistics for this season). After picking the top two candidates at each position (or top four for corner outfield) the team needs to add two additional position players, and my system selects the two players with the most points. De La Cruz, with 25.5 points, got the first slot, and Betts with 23.1 points would have gotten the second spot. If there had been a third spot, it would have gone to Wood with his 22.7 points. But so that the Nats can be represented, Wood bumped Betts from that last position-player slot and made the team.
Here is my 2025 NL all-star team
Starters:
C – Will Smith – Los Angeles Dodgers (22.9)
1B – Freddie Freeman – Los Angeles Dodgers (23.6)
2B – Ketel Marte – Arizona Diamondbacks (28.9)
3B – Matt Chapman – San Francisco Giants (24.8)
SS – Francisco Lindor – New York Mets (33.1)
COF – Juan Soto – New York Mets (29.0)
COF – Kyle Tucker – Chicago Cubs (26.8)
CF – Pete Crow-Armstrong – Chicago Cubs (27.0)
DH – Shohei Ohtani – Los Angeles Dodgers (36.9)
SP – Chris Sale – Atlanta Braves (30.9)
Reserves:
C – William Contreras – Milwaukee Brewers (19.4)
1B – Bryce Harper – Philadelphia Phillies (20.2)
2B – Nico Hoerner – Chicago Cubs (18.8)
3B – Manny Machado – San Diego Padres (24.7)
SS – Trea Turner – Philadelphia Phillies (26.9)
SS – Elly De La Cruz – Cincinnati Reds (25.5)
COF – Corbin Carroll – Arizona Diamondbacks (25.6)
COF – Fernando Tatis, Jr – San Diego Padres (25.0)
COF – James Wood – Washington Nationals (22.7) (*selected so the Nationals would be represented)
CF – Andy Pages – Los Angeles Dodgers (20.0)
DH – Kyle Schwarber – Philadelphia Phillies (19.8)
SP – Zack Wheeler – Philadelphia Phillies (30.3)
SP – Paul Skenes – Pittsburgh Pirates (29.7)
SP – Logan Webb – San Francisco Giants (24.7)
SP – Christopher Sánchez – Philadelphia Phillies (20.9)
SP – Ranger Suárez – Philadelphia Phillies (20.1)
SP – Hunter Greene – Cincinnati Reds (19.9)
RP – Randy Rodríguez – San Francisco Giants (11.0)
RP – Tyler Rogers – San Francisco Giants (10.6)
RP – Jake Bird – Colorado Rockies (10.5)
RP – Ryan Helsley – St Louis Cardinals (8.1) (*selected so the Cardinals would be represented)
RP – Anthony Bender – Miami Marlines (5.0) (*selected so the Marlins would be represented)
Nats Noodles 