Due to the holiday, I’m a bit late with this month’s review. All statistics refer to the month of June.
In June, as Michael Morse returned from the disabled list, the Nats’ offense picked up some steam, advancing from tepid to luke warm. Meanwhile, the pitching stayed hot, keeping the Nats in many games where the offense scratched and struggled.
The month began with a short home stand, with the Nats splitting a pair against the Braves, then winning two of three against the Mets. Next came a road trip for interleague play, and the Nats swept both the Red Sox and the Blue Jays. With those sweeps came national media attention and the idea took hold that this year’s team had a legitimate aspiration for a divisional title and post-season success.
Some air was let out of the Nats’ balloon during the ensuing home stand, when they lost four in a row—swept by the Yankees and another loss to the Rays—before winning the last two games against the Rays. Ending the month on the road, the Nats lost two of three to the Orioles, finishing their interleague play against the tough AL East with a 10–8 record, while their divisional rivals other than the Mets recorded losing records in interleague play.
With the road trip moving on to Denver, the Nats split four games against the Rockies and ended the month splitting the first two games played in Atlanta. The Nats finished June in first place in the NL East, 2-1/2 games ahead of the Mets, and according to coolstandings.com, their playoff odds were 66.7%.
Record:
15–11 (.577)
Pythagorean Record:
15–11 (4.46 R/G – 3.73 RA/G)
MVP for June:
Ian Desmond (.301/.333/.553, 26 G, 108 PA, 5 HR, 11 R, 20 RBI, 1.2 fWAR, 1.64 WPA, 6.34 RE24). Honorable mention goes to Tyler Moore (.425/.521/.800, 1.0 fWAR in 48 PA, mostly as a platoon player).
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Jordan Zimmermann (1–1, 3.00 R/9, 5 G, 33 IP, 5.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.29 RE24). Zimmermann was a model of consistency, going 6–7–6–7–7 innings with 2–3–3–2–1 runs allowed in his five starts. While Stephen Strasburg has flashier fielding-independent numbers, for the monthly awards I generally rely more on runs prevented, where steady Zimmermann slightly edged out Strasburg.
Most valuable reliever:
Tyler Clippard (0-0, 0.00 R/9, 12 G, 10 saves, 11-2/3 IP, 9.3 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.5 H/9, 6.04 RE24, 1.32 WPA, 0 of 1 inherited runner scored, 11 shutdowns, 0 meltdown) wins the award for the second month in a row. That’s about as it gets for a relief ace.
Best start this month:
Stephen Strasburg (June 2, 2–0 win over the Braves at home). Strasburg went 7 innings and got the win, giving up 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, getting 9 K and a game score of 78.
Worst start:
Edwin Jackson (June 28, 11–10 loss to the Rockies in Denver, 3 IP, 10 H, 1 HR, 8 R, 2 BB, 5 K, game score of 10). Jackson wasn’t charged with the loss, as the Nats came back to tie it before losing in the 11th inning.
Best shutdown:
Craig Stammen (June 16, 5–3 loss to the Yankees at home) pitched three scoreless, hitless innings in the 11th, 12th, and 13th innings of a 3–3 tie. The only Yanks who reached base while Stammen was on the mound were Teixeira on an error and Cano on an intentional walk (Win probability added .370). In the 14th inning, Brad Lidge, in his final game as a Nat, gave up the decisive runs to the Yankees.
Worst meltdown:
Sean Burnett (June 24, 2–1 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore) entered in the bottom of the eighth with a 1–0 lead, and promptly gave up a gave up a single to Jones and a home run (and the lead) to Wieters. After getting a fly out, he walked Pearce and then was pulled for Mattheus before any more damage could be done. (Win probability added –.550)
Clutch hit:
Roger Bernadina (June 10, 4–3 win over the Red Sox in Boston) came up with two outs in the top of the ninth, a tie game 3–3, and Bryce Harper on first. The Shark hit a double to score Harper and give the Nats the go-ahead run for the final game of the series sweep. (WPA .389)
Choke:
Ryan Zimmerman (June 3, 3–2 loss to the Braves at homes) came up in the bottom of the eighth, the Nats down by one, runners on first and second, and no outs. He grounded into a rally-killing double play. (WPA –.266)
If a team sends its starting pitchers out all year in a strict 5-man rotation, the top two pitchers will get 33 starts. Thus, it’s not surprising that on most teams, the pitcher with the most starts in a season most often has 33. Stephen Strasburg has just completed his 33rd career start, so he now has a full season’s worth of starts under his belt. Let’s look at his career statistics to see what a full season of Strasburg looks like.
His record is 15–7 in 185 innings, with an ERA of 2.68. In 2011 his ERA would have ranked fourth in the NL (behind Kershaw, Halladay, and Lee), and sixth in the majors (behind AL pitchers Verlander and Weaver). In 2010, he again would have ranked fourth in the NL (behind Johnson, Wainwright, and Halladay), and sixth in the majors (behind ALers Hernandez and Buchholz).
Strasburg’s 238 strikeouts would have tied for second in the NL and third in the majors in 2011 (tied with Lee and behind Verlander’s 250 and Kershaw’s 248). In 2010, 238 strikeouts would have led the majors. His 5.17 K/BB ratio would have ranked third in the NL and fourth in the majors in 2011 (behind Halladay, Haren, and Lee), and would have ranked third in both the NL and the majors in 2010 (behind Lee and Halladay). Strasburg’s fielding-independent pitching (FIP) of 2.07 would have led the majors in both seasons, ahead of Halladay’s 2.20 in 2011 and Johnson’s 2.41 in 2010. His xFIP of 2.35 would also have easily led the majors in both seasons.
Strasburg has done well at avoiding the long ball. His 11 career home runs would have tied for fourth lowest among qualified pitchers in the majors in 2011 and would have been ninth lowest in 2012.
Despite his impressive statistics, his relatively light workload would have prevented him from being a strong Cy Young Award candidate. He averaged 5-2/3 innings per start, compared to about 7 innings per start for the typical ace pitcher.
Of his 33 starts, only four could be considered even mildly disappointing, with game scores lower than 45. His worst start came on August 10, 2010 against the Marlins (game score of 29), when he allowed six runs in 4-1/3 innings. This season his disappointing starts came on May 15 against the Padres (four runs in 4 innings, game score of 35), on May 26 against Atlanta (four runs in 5 innings, game score of 41), and Saturday’s heat-affected start in Atlanta (three runs in 3 innings, game score of 43). In contrast, he’s had 18 starts with game scores above 60, including six with game scores in excess of 70.
I’m really looking forward to seeing Strasburg in 2013, when he’ll be allowed to pitch a full season and presumably will stretch into longer outings per start.
Sports Illustrated publishes weekly power rankings, and last week’s ratings featured a surprise—the Nats were ranked first in the National League and second in MLB. This was surprising because the previous week they’d been ranked sixth, and during the intervening week (May 14–20) they had gone 3–4 against the Padres, Pirates, and Orioles, giving no indication that they deserved to move up.
The reason, of course, was a change in methodology, specifically for the measurement of team defense. SI‘s explanation was that their power rankings were based on Fangraph’s WAR, but the WAR statistics for fielding, which are based on ultimate zone ratings (UZR) weren’t able to adequately adjust for team fielding. In particular, the UZR is based on standard assumptions about where fielders are positioned. With the growing use of defensive shifts, they found that some teams were successful getting defensive outs even though the team didn’t show up well according to UZR.
SI announced that they had replaced the defensive component of WAR with a measure based on “the rate at which teams turn balls in play into outs.” Those of us who are familiar with the old Bill James Baseball Abstracts recognize this statistic as the defensive efficiency rating” or DER.
I have to say that I too had been puzzled by the difference between defensive WAR (and the UZR on which it’s based) and DER. Their fielding WAR through May 26 is a below average –2.4, while their DER of .730 is much better than the major league average (.711) and ranks sixth among major league teams.
DER, of course, doesn’t measure everything on defense, and there is certainly a case that it leads to an overrating of the Nationals. For example, it omits errors (where the Nats have been about average, with a .985 fielding average) and double plays (where the Nats have been far below average, with only 73 double plays turned, though it’s unclear how much that late rate is due to their power pitching staff).
I guess what I take from this is that the measurement of fielding is still a bit fuzzy compared with what’s been accomplished with batting and pitching. In the not-too-distant future, I expect we’ll have measures that will decompose fielding into positioning and reaction to the batted ball. Then, maybe we’ll get fielding statistics that are reliable enough to be informative as the season goes along. For now, I think the operative warning for all fielding statistics continues to be caveat emptor.
It’s been a while since I’ve done one of these. As usual, “links to remember” are to articles and video clips that I consider especially memorable.
- The Nationals’ starting pitching has been one of the biggest stories of the season so far. Rob Neyer of Baseball Nation asks if the Nats’ pitching is believable.
- Tom Boswell of the Washington Post wrote a couple of nice articles on Bryce Harper‘s call-up—one on April 27, the day that his call-up was announced, and another on May 1 after his first couple of games.
- I have lots of video clips to link to. Let’s start with a great play by Ian Desmond against the Reds on April 13.
- On April 15, Ryan Zimmerman robbed Ryan Ludwick of extra bases.
- In his second major league game on April 29, Harper made the highlight reels with this leaping catch against the Dodgers.
- Speaking of Harper, I can’t omit his steal of home against Cole Hamels and the Phillies on May 6.
- I’ll end this with one of the funniest clips I’ve seen. The setting is the end of a brief rain delay against the Padres on May 15.
Bryce Harper has now passed 100 plate appearances, so we are starting to get a large enough sample to look at his approach at the plate. With 103 plate appearances in his first 24 games, he sports a batting line of .267/.350/.467, all of which are above the major league averages of .250/.317/.397. His walk rate (10.7%) and strikeout rate (17.5%) are also better than the major league averages (8.4 and 19.5). Although his strikeout rate is not really low, it’s actually the lowest of any of the Nats’ regulars, almost all of whom carry above-average strikeout rates.
When we look at his plate approach, however, his statistics start to stand out more. His plate approach has to be described as aggressive—he swings at 53% of the pitches he sees, ranking 20th among 241 major leaguers with at least 100 plate appearances. For pitches within the zone, he swings 76.5% of the time (ranking 10th) and for pitches outside the zone, he swings 37% of the time (ranking 27th).
In aggressiveness, his statistics are similar to the Nats’ strikeout kings, Rick Ankiel and Danny Espinosa. What makes the results different? When Harper swings at pitches outside the zone, he’s more likely to make contact. His contact rate for pitches outside the zone is 70.4%, better than the major league average of 67.1%. In contrast, Ankiel (58.6%) and Espinosa (55.9%) are well below average.
In terms of pitch types, Harper’s getting many fewer fastballs (44.7%) than the average major leaguer (57.4%). That appears to be a response to his success with hitting fastballs—a measure of his success against fastballs, linear weights, shows a rate of 2.31 per 100 pitches, which ranks 17th of 241 major leaguers. He’s also been successful against curve balls (2.80), but has struggled against sliders (–3.08). Not surprisingly, opposing teams have responded by pitching more sliders (18.1% compared to the average of 14.2) and changeups (14.4% versus 10.5).
While Harper has made a lot of contact, it hasn’t always been good contact. His line drive rate of 15.3% is below average (20.6%), and his infield fly rate of 16.7% is well above average (10.3). His HR/FB rate of 6.7% is also below average (10.6).
While it has to be emphasized that 103 plate appearances is a ridiculously small sample, I think some characteristics are becoming apparent. He’s an aggressive swinger, but he doesn’t look lost, as Espinosa and Ankiel sometime do. He’s a smart young hitter, so if he can learn to lay off of some of the pitches outside the zone, he may start making better contact and getting better results. He’s already a feared hitter, and the word is out there not to throw him fastballs in the zone. How well he adapts to a steady diet of sliders and changeups is going to determine how he’ll do as a major league hitter. But there’s a lot in these statistics that’s encouraging.
The Nats finished April with a 14–8 record, their best monthly winnng percentage since June 2005 when they went 20–6. But a closer look at the statistics reveals that this month’s performance may have been more impressive than 2005’s memorable run. That June run was partly fueled by luck—a 9–1 record in one-run games and a run differential that should have been consistent with a 15–11 record. In contrast, this April’s run was only boosted a little by Pythagorean luck, with the Nats going 6–5 in one-run games and finishing the month with a 13–9 Pythagorean record.
The 2012 season began auspiciously with a 4–2 road trip against the Cubs and the Mets. The Nats followed that up with an 8–2 home stand against Reds, Astros, and Marlins. They ended the month with a road trip to California, where they took the first two from the Padres before losing the Padres’ finale and all three games against the Dodgers.
Record:
14–8 (.636)
Pythagorean Record:
13–9 (3.36 R/G – 2.68 RA/G)
MVP for April:
Adam LaRoche (.329/.415/.549, 22 G, 94 PA, 4 HR, 9 R, 17 RBI, 1.2 fWAR, 1.43 WPA, 10.51 RE24) has carried the Nats’ offense so far.
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Stephen Strasburg (2–0, 1.13 R/9, 5 G, 32 IP, 9.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 10.33 RE24) wins the honor, with honorable mention going to Jordan Zimmermann (1.67 R/9) and Gio Gonzalez (1.82 R/9).
Most valuable reliever:
Sean Burnett (0-0, 0.00 R/9, 5 G, 8-1/3 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.11 RE24, 1 of 6 inherited runners scored, 3 shutdowns, 0 meltdown)
Best start this month:
Edwin Jackson (April 14, 4–1 win over the Reds at home, 9-inning complete game, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K, game score of 87) wins, while honorable mention goes to Gonzalez’s 7-shutout inning performance in the home opener two days earlier (game score of 80).
Worst start:
Gio Gonzalez (April 7, 7–4 win over the Cubs in Chicago, 3-2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 6 K, game score of 34) got off to a rocky start, but the Nats came back to win and Gio’s been superb since.
Best shutdown:
Tom Gorzelanny (April 13, 2–1 win over the Reds at home) pitched two scoreless innings in the 11th and 12th with a 1–1 tie. He gave up a double and two walks, but didn’t allow any of them to score. (Win probability added .246)
Worst meltdown:
Henry Rodríguez (April 28, 4–3 loss to the Dodgers in Los Angeles) spoiled Bryce Harper‘s debut game by blowing the save. Entering in the top of the ninth with a 3–1 lead, Henry allowed two singles, a double, and threw three wild pitches, allowing two runs to score. He left the game with two outs, runners on first and third, and the game tied (WPA –.553). The next inning, Matt Kemp’s home run would seal the loss.
Clutch hit:
Chad Tracy (April 7, 7–4 win over the Cubs in Chicago) came in as a pinch hitter in the 8th with two outs, the bases loaded, and the Nats behind 4–3. He singled into right, scoring Ryan Zimmerman and LaRoche and giving the Nats a 5–4 lead. (WPA .456)
Choke:
Danny Espinosa (April 12, 3–2 win over the Reds at home) came up in the bottom of the ninth with one out, the bases loaded, and the score tied 2–2, and grounded into a double play that sent the game into extra innings (WPA –.327). The Nats went on to win in the 10th on a wild pitch that scored Zimmerman.
Bryce Harper is expected to make his MLB debut tonight in Los Angeles, where the Nats are facing the Dodgers. The news was a bit of a surprise, since Harper was hitting an unimpressive .250/.333/.375 in only twenty AAA games for Syracuse.
For Harper and his family, the timing of his debut (a Saturday evening) and its location (Dodgers Stadium, only a few hours drive from his hometown of Las Vegas) are especially fortuitous—I imagine he’ll have a significant crowd of family and friends attending.
How long Harper will stick depends, of course, on how well he plays. If he starts 1 for 40, for example, he would have a quick return trip to upstate New York. My guess, though, is that he’ll stick for a while. Although Ryan Zimmerman‘s trip to the DL is the proximate cause for his promotion, in order to stay he really only needs to play better than Xavier Nady and/or Mark DeRosa. The more interesting decision point is likely to come when Michael Morse returns, which could be a couple of months away.
A lot of the discussion about Harper’s promotion has been about its potential cost to the team in terms of its impact on his Super Two arbitration status. Although Super Two is potentially costly, I don’t think it should be decisive for a team with relatively deep pockets. His promotion could be a good business move for the Lerners, even if they risk paying more in arbitration. If he does well with the Nats, it might help push the Nats into post-season contention. If so, the team could easily recoup the cost in extra ticket sales and other revenue. If he doesn’t do well, he’ll return to the Chiefs for further development and lose his Super Two status.
Another factor that Mike Rizzo and the Lerners may be considering is that his early promotion may help build good will with the player and improve their chances of eventually signing him to an extension. Moderate-cost extensions of players who are eligible for arbitration or free agency have become the new market inefficiency—a way for teams to obtain talent at below-market rates and gain a competitive edge. These extensions aren’t always good deals for the teams, but some (such as Evan Longoria’s extension with the Rays) have been great for the teams.
Finally, I want to acknowledge the role of Davey Johnson, who has repeatedly lobbied for Harper’s promotion. Johnson obviously loves to work with young talent and much of his managerial success has been built with young, hungry players. I’m sure that Harper wouldn’t have been promoted without Johnson’s strong support. I look forward to seeing if Davey can work his magic again.
On Friday,MLB announced the addition of two more wild card teams, with the each league’s pair of wild cards facing off in a one-game contest. How does the new format affect the Nats’ post-season chances in 2012?
It’s obvious that the probability of the Nats (and of every other team in baseball) making the post-season goes up. But how much does it affect the Nats relative to other teams? And how does it affect their chances of winning the World Series?
First, a quick analysis of the main features:
- The probability of the divisional champions winning the World Series, to a first approximation, isn’t affected. For example, if all teams making it to the post-season were of equal quality (a convenient starting assumption), the probability of divisional champions winning would have been 1/8 under the old format and remains 1/8 under the new format. A second-order effect is that divisional champs will probably pick up a slight advantage by having a better opportunity to optimize their pitching rotations compared to the wild cards, who will need to use one of their best pitchers for the one-game playoff. So a small net advantage to the divisional champs.
- The probability that any wild card team wins the World Series would also remain at 1/4 (assuming equal quality), but since there are now twice as many wild card teams, the probability of a particular wild card team winning is now only half as big (1/16 instead of 1/8).
- Therefore, if a team is more likely to be the league’s first wild card, the new format substantially hurts its World Series chances, whereas if its more likely to be the second wild card, it boosts the team’s World Series chances.
The chances of being the league’s first or second wild card team depend on how good the team is and what division it’s in. A team is more likely to be the first wild card team if it’s playing in a division with an even stronger opponent, since the team playing in a weak division would simply win the division.
The CAIRO projections that are available from the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog show the Nats’ post-season probabilities under one set of assumptions. The good news is that RLYW sees the Nats as a pretty good team, projecting 86 wins, second in the NL East to the Phillies, who are projected at 92 wins.
The interesting thing about those projections is that they also include post-season probabilities based on computer simulations. According to CAIRO, the Nationals’ probability of making the post-season went up from 37% under the old format to 46% under the new format. The projections also show the Nats as much more likely to make the post-season as the first wild card team (18%) than as the second wild card team (9%). The have a 19% chance of winning the division outright.
The implication is that—under these assumptions—the Nats’ probability of winning the World Series is lower under the new format than it would have been under the old format. Because the Nats play in the division with the league’s strongest team (the Phillies) and there are many more teams competing for the second spot, their probability of being the first wild card team is much better than their probability of being the second wild card, meaning that their World Series probability is reduced.
Of course, these probabilities are heavily dependent on the projections being used. An alternative is Baseball Prospectus, which projects the Nats at 84 wins, but only fourth place in the NL East. A small difference in projected team quality will imply a fairly large difference in playoff probabilities.
The other comment I’ll make is that the Nat really should consider putting Strasburg on a once-a-week schedule to make him available for the post-season, especially the one-game playoff. I simply don’t buy the argument that pitching on six days rest would be more stressful than pitching the same number of starts on four days rest. Teams will quickly learn that the optimal strategy for a wild card team is to have their best pitcher available for the wild-card all-or-nothing game. While the post-season often has other all-or-nothing games (for example, game seven of a league championship series or a World Series), the wild-card series is unique in that it can be planned for.
Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post provides some additional thoughts on how the new format affects the Nationals.
Nats Noodles 