Each year, I put together a National League All Star team to see which Nationals deserve to be on it. For objectivity, I follow a point system where points are based on wins above replacement (WAR) for this year’s season-to-date, last season, and the player’s career.
This year, two Nationals make the team. Even though Juan Soto‘s 2022 season has been disappointing compared to his own recent seasons, he still ranks as one of the two best corner outfielders in the NL and a starter for my team. This was the first season where I’ve had to select NL players for the position of DH based on players who claim tht role. And while Bryce Harper was the obvious first choice, I realized that the other NL teams don’t have obvious all-stars in the role. So, even though Nelson Cruz‘s 2022 season may not seem all-star worthy, based on his 2021 season and career statistics he did wind up with the second-most points for the position, and was selected for the team. (Of course, Bryce is injured and won’t be back in time for the game, which would make Cruz the starter for the actual game if my team were selected.)
At the end of this post, I’m including a step-by-step explanation of my point system (and how I adjusted it to account for the DH). Read it if you’re interested. The points are based on games played through June 29.
Here’s my 2021 NL All-Star team (showing the points assigned by my system in parentheses):
Starters
C – Willson Contreras – Cubs (21.3)
1B – Paul Goldschmidt – Cardinals (33.1)
2B – Tommy Edman – Cardinals (24.9)
3B – Manny Machado – Padres (32.4)
SS – Trea Turner – Dodgers (30.9)
OF – Mookie Betts – Dodgers (27.1)
CF – Bryan Reynolds – Pirates (20.7)
OF – Juan Soto – Nationals (24.5)
DH – Bryce Harper – Phillies (27.2)
SP – Corbin Burnes – Brewers (28.4)
Reserves
C – J.T. Realmuto – Phillies (20.6)
1B – Freddie Freeman – Dodgers (29.4)
1B – Matt Olson – Braves (21.1)
2B – Jake Cronenworth – Padres (20.0)
3B – Nolan Arenado – Cardinals (27.9)
SS – Francisco Lindor – Mets (24.5)
SS – Dansby Swanson – Braves (24.0)
OF – Starling Marte – Mets (22.0)
CF – Brandon Nimmo – Mets (20.1)
OF – Ronald Acuna Jr. – Braves (17.6)
DH – Nelson Cruz – Nationals (11.1)
SP – Sandy Alcantara – Marlins (27.8)
SP – Zack Wheeler – Phillies (27.7)
SP – Max Scherzer – Mets (26.5)
SP – Adam Wainwright – Cardinals (26.0)
SP – Carlos Rodon – Giants (25.8)
SP – Tyler Mahle – Reds (16.7) (* selected so the Reds would be represented)
RP – Josh Hader – Brewers (15.6)
RP – Kenley Jansen – Braves (11.7)
RP – Ryan Helsley – Cardinals (10.8)
RP – Daniel Bard – Rockies (8.8) (* selected so the Rockies would be represented)
RP – Joe Mantiply – Diamondbacks (7.9) (* selected so the Diamondbacks would be represented)
Nats fans have talked about the possibility of Josh Bell making the team. Bell has had a pretty good season so far this year, but his 2021 season was more ordinary. Overall, my system has him ranked fifth at first base with 16.7 points. That’s good, but it leaves him well behind the three first baseman that were selected for the team (Goldschmidt, Freeman, and Olson), as well as fourth-ranking Pete Alonso. Bell needs to keep up his current level of performance for the next 12 months to be considered for next year’s team.
Methodology:
The general philosophy that underlies my point system is that I’m trying to find the best players right now. That doesn’t mean just the players that have been hot for the last three months. So my system also factors in performance last season. I also include career performance, but it’s given a relatively small weight. The idea is that in cases where two players have played similarly but one is a long-time star, I would lean toward the long-time star. The system does allow a rookie or a player who has genuinely taken a big step forward to stardom to be recognized, but only in exceptional cases. (An example from the American League is Alejandro Kirk, who would have made the AL team if I had selected one, reflecting his breakout performance this season.)
Everyone who has played in the NL this season and is currently on a 40-man roster is considered, regardless of their current injury status. Players are assigned a position based on where they’ve played the most games this season.
While the MLB ballot lumps together all outfielders, I separate center fielders from corner outfielders. While I treat the corner outfield positions as interchangeable, I want to make sure that my all-star team has at least two actual center fielders.
I follow the MLB rule that there will be 20 position players and 12 pitchers. I begin by picking the highest rated players at each position as starters. I then select one backup at each position, as well as the four backup starting pitchers and three relievers. At that point, 26 of the 32 players have been selected, and I still need to fill in two more position players and four more pitchers.
I then check to see which teams aren’t yet represented, and pick the highest ranking players from those teams. This year there were four teams in that category—the Giants, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Reds. The Giants were easy, because Rodon was the next highest ranking starting pitcher. For the other three teams, I compared their highest ranking position players, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers to the cutoff line for their position and picked the player who was closest (in percentage terms) to the cutoff. This resulted in the selections of starting pitcher Tyler Mahle (of the Reds) and relief pitchers Daniel Bard (Rockies) and Joe Mantiply (Diamondbacks). I then completed the lineup with the two highest ranking position players who hadn’t yet been selected (Swanson and Olson). (If I hadn’t followed the rule of including at least one player from each team, the additional pitchers who would have been selected were Max Fried of the Braves (24.4) and relievers David Bednar of the Pirates (10.6) and David Robertson of the Cubs (10.4).
My point calculation method is pretty simple but reflects the philosophy outlined above. I did make some modifications this year to how I calculate the points for pitchers and for designated hitters, which I will describe after going through the main position player calcujlation.
The points are calculated as the sum of three components—this season’s WAR times 4, the previous season’s WAR times 2, and the square root of the player’s career WAR. (Last year I adjusted this formula due to the prior year being the short 2020 season, but I’ve gone back to my long-standing formula.) If the career WAR is less than zero, the last term is simply set to zero.
I use Fangraphs WAR for position players. To keep rookies or players who were injured or had an off-year the previous year competitive, I substitute the current season’s performance into the formula for the past year if it is greater.
Written as an equation, this year’s formula is:
Points = 4 * 2022_WAR + 2 * MAX(2021_WAR, 2022_WAR) + Squareroot(Career_WAR)
Pitchers:
For pitchers, in the past I’ve always used Fangraphs’ RA9-WAR, which is based on runs allowed per nine innings, rather than Fangraphs’ standard WAR for pitchers, which is “fielding independent” and is based solely on strikeouts, walks, and home runs. While runs allowed are affected by fielding and “luck,” I’ve been concerned that fielding-independent runs leave out too many things that are under the pitcher’s control, such as controlling the running game, fielding the pitcher’s own position, and inducing soft contact such as pop-ups. But starting this year, I’ve decided to start basing the points for pitchers on a mix of RA9-WAR and Fangraph’s fielding independent WAR, with a weight of ⅔ given to RA9-WAR and ⅓ to fielding-independent WAR. Otherwise, the formula is the same as for position players. I use the same weighted average for relief pitchers.
Designated Hitters:
In looking over the candidates for the DH position, I quickly realized that only about half of the teams use a regular DH, with the other teams rotating the role among players who primarily play other positions. For example, the Cubs players with the most plate appearances at DH are Willson Contreras (who played most of his games at catcher), Frank Schwindel (mostly a first baseman), and Rafael Ortega (mostly an outfielder). No one is primarily a DH. That meant that if I had used my usual method of primary position, there would only have been seven or eight candidates for the DH slots on the all-star team, and only one of them (Harper) was an obvious all-star. So I decided to widen the pool by considering any player who had at least 75 plate appearances in 2022 as a DH, even if another position was their primary one.
This increased the pool to about 20 players, but it raised another issue. In my opinion, the DH selection should focus exclusively on the players’ offensive statistics, yet WAR includes their defensive contributions from when they play other positions. So I decided to strip out the defensive part of WAR and come up with a WAR-type measure that considers only the players offensive contributions (that is, batting and base running).
For this I used the statistic that Fangraphs calls “Off” (standing for offense), which is the offensive runs contributed by the player relative to an average hitter. For example, for Nelson Cruz this is 0.2 for 2022 and 14.0 for 2021. To convert that number to wins, I divide by 10. Then I need a replacement-level adjustment, for which I use the player’s total plate appearance divided by 1,000. So for Cruz, in 2022 I get 0.2/10 + 302/1,000 = 0.3, and in 2021 I get 14.0/10 + 584/1,000 = 2.0. Those numbers turn out to equal Cruz’s Fangraphs WAR, telling me that my rough approximation is working pretty well for a full-time DH. I will call this number “OFFAR” for “offense above replacement.”
For a player who is not a full-time DH, the OFFAR will usually be smaller than his WAR because it leaves out his defensive contributions, but that is what I intended in order to select a DH solely based on offense.
The player who was most competitive to Cruz for the second DH slot was Garrett Cooper of the Marlins. His 2022 offensive statistics are better than Cruz’s, but Cruz had a big lead in 2021 and career statistics that gave him the overall lead, 11.1 points for Cruz to 10.6 for Cooper.
The Nationals faced a tough schedule in May, playing 14 games against the division-leading Mets, Astros, Brewers, and Dodgers, plus another four games against the strong Giants and Angels. They ended the month going 11–17, which isn’t good but was still a step up from their 7–16 record during April. With mostly poor starting pitching and sloppy defense, the Nats’ games tended to be a bit boring, with nearly two-thirds of the games decided by more than a three-run margin.
The month began with the Nats in San Francisco playing the last game of a three-game series with the Giants. They won the game and took the series two games to one. Their next series, against the Rockies in Denver, began with a 10–2 win. Over four games, they had scored 38 runs—quite a change from the quiet bats that had characterized the Nats’ offense during April. The burst of offense, of course, did not last. The Nats lost the next two games to the Rockies, then lost two of three to the Angels in Anaheim. The final game was a heartbreaker, in which the Nats entered the bottom of the ninth with a 4–2 lead but were walked off by former Nat, Anthony Rendon. The team had a 4–5 record on the road trip.
Returning to Washington, the Nats faced the Mets and played respectably but lost the series two games to one. Their next series was their first against the Astros since the 2019 World Series. Alas, these Nats don’t much resemble their 2019 version. The Nats lost to the Astros two games to one, but managed to score 13–6 in their one victory in the series.
The next week was spent on the road. The Nats lost two of three games against the Marlins, only managing to score 6 runs. They also lost two of three against the Brewers, for a 2–4 road trip.
Home again, the Nats faced the Dodgers and lost the first game 10–1. They also lost the second game, but won the finale 1–0 in a rare game in which the pitching and defense were all pretty flawless. They next faced the Rockies for four games. They won the first game, and the second was postponed due to weather, resulting in a double header the next day. The Nats won the opener of the doubleheader, giving them a three-game winning streak for the first time this season. They lost a close game in the the nightcap, but came back to win another close game the next day. Winning the series three games to one, it was their first series win in four weeks. Ending the home stand with a 4–3 record, it was their first one with a winning record this season.
On the next day, Memorial Day, the Nats were in New York, where they lost the first of a three-game set against the Mets. The month ended with the next game, which the Nats lost 10–0, a suitable reminder of how far the team has fallen.
There was a mix of good and bad news about pitchers trying to return from injuries. Stephen Strasburg made a couple of successful rehab starts and appears to be on track to return to the rotation in a week or two. The rehab attempt by Joe Ross, however, did not go so well, and he had to go for his second Tommy John surgery.
A couple of relief pitchers debuted with the Nats this month. Carl Edwards, Jr. is best known as a reliever for the Cubs from 2015 to 2019, and bounced between the Braves, the Blue Jays, and various minor league teams last season. He signed a minor league contract with the Nats and was promoted on May 10. Jordan Weems, a 29-year old journeyman who pitched for Oakland and Arizona last season, also signed a minor league contract and was promoted on May 31.
Record:
11–17 (.393)
Pythagorean Record:
11–17 (4.36 R/G – 5.50 RA/G)
May MVP:
Keibert Ruiz (.307/.402/.440, 1 HR, 12 R, 8 RBI, 140 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR), with runner-up Cesar Hernandez (.304/.376/.384, 18 R, 8 RBI, 117 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR). One of the few bright spots of this season is watching Ruiz develop into an above-average MLB catcher.
Pitcher of the month:
Erick Fedde (2–2, 3.72 RA/9, 6 GS, 29 IP, 7.1 K/9, .346 opp OBP, 0.7 RA9-WAR). He had a really tough outing in his last start of the month, getting knocked out by the Mets after 1⅓ innings, but his month overall was pretty good.
Reliever of the month:
Paolo Espino (0–0, 1.42 RA/9, 10 G, 12⅔ IP, 4.3 K/9, 0.7 BB/9, .224 opp OBP, 4.16 RE24, 0.3 RA9-WAR, 0 shutdowns, 0 meltdowns). Espino isn’t ever going to be a relief ace, but there’s still a lot to be said for someone who almost never walks anyone. The weird thing is that the Nats this year have literally never used him in a high leverage situation. If you prefer your best reliever to be someone who sometimes pitches in meaningful situations, Carl Edwards, Jr. (0–1, 2.25 RA/9, 10 G, 12 IP, 9 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, .227 opp OBP, 3.78 RE24, 0.3 RA9-WAR, 2 shutdowns, 1 meltdown) gets the nod.
Worst month:
This one is shared by two pitchers, a starter and a reliever, who each ended the month designated for assignment:
- Aaron Sanchez (2–2, 9.41 RA/9, 5 GS, 22 IP, 4.5 K/9, .422 opp OBP, –0.7 RA9-WAR)
- Austin Voth (0–0, 15.00 RA/9, 9 G, 9 IP, 7.0 K/9, .479 opp OBP, –9.12 RE24, –0.7 RA9-WAR), had pitched for the Nats since 2018 before being designated for assignment.
Best start this month:
A tie between:
- Josiah Gray (May 1, 11–5 win over the Giants in San Francisco) pitched 6 scoreless innings, giving up 1 hit and 4 walks and striking out 3 for a game score of 69. He left the game with an 8–0 lead, which fortunately was enough for the Nats to win despite a sorry bullpen.
- Erick Fedde (May 25, 1–0 win over the Dodgers at home) pitched 6 scoreless innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 walk and striking out 6 for a game score of 69. With only one run of offensive support, both Fedde and the bullpen had to be perfect.
Worst start:
Erick Fedde (May 30, 13–5 loss to the Mets in New York) gave up 6 runs on 8 hits and 1 walk in 1⅓ innings with no strikeouts for a game score of 13.
Tough losses:
- Patrick Corbin (May 4, 5–2 loss to the Rockies in Denver) pitched an 8 inning complete game and gave up 5 runs (only 3 of which were earned) with a game score of 51.
- Joan Adon (May 6, 3–0 loss to the Angels in Anaheim) gave up 3 runs on 3 hits in 5 innings, while striking out 6, for a game score of 50.
- Joan Adon (May 17, 5–1 loss to the Marlins in Miami) gave up 1 run on 5 hits in 4⅔ innings, for a game score of 52.
- Erick Fedde (May 20, 7–0 loss to the Brewers in Milwaukee) gave up 2 runs on 4 hits in 5⅔ innings, for a game score of 54.
Cheap wins:
- Josiah Gray (May 7, 7–3 win over the Angels in Anaheim) gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks in 5⅓ innings, while striking out 3, for a game score of 47.
- Aaron Sanchez (May 11, 8–3 win over the Mets at home) gave up 3 runs on 6 hits in 5⅓ innings, while striking out 1, for a game score of 45.
- Aaron Sanchez (May 22, 8–2 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee) gave up 2 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings, while striking out 1, for a game score of 44.
- Patrick Corbin (May 26, 7–3 win over the Rockies at home) gave up 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in 6⅓ innings, while striking out 3, for a game score of 48.
Best shutdown:
Tanner Rainey (May 29, 6–5 win over the Rockies at home). The Nats had led 6–1 after six, but Andres Machado and Kyle Finnegan had given up four runs in the next 1⅓ innings. Rainey got the call with one out in the top of the eighth, runners on first and third, and the Nats leading 6–5. He struck out Elias Diaz and Charlie Blackmon to get out of the eighth without further damage. Rainey returned in the ninth and retired the Rockies’ two, three, and four hitters on a grounder, a strikeout, and a foul pop fly, earning a five-out save. (Win probability added/WPA +.445)
Worst meltdown:
Tanner Rainey (May 8, 5–4 loss to the Angels in Anaheim). The Nats were ahead 4–2 when Rainey got the call to close out the game in the bottom of the ninth. He struck out the first batter, then gave up a walk and a single, bringing Trout to the plate. Rainey struck him out for the second out, but then Ohtani tied the game with a double to deep left-center field. Rendon followed with a single that scored Ohtani and walked off the Nationals. (WPA –.918)
Clutch hit:
Yadiel Hernandez (May 14, 13–6 win over the Astros at home). The Nats were leading 1–0 when Hernandez came to bat with two outs in the bottom of the third and runners on first and second. Hernandez launched one into the Nats’ bullpen, putting the Nats ahead 4–0. (WPA +.219)
Choke:
Juan Soto (May 5, 9–7 loss to the Rockies in Denver). With no outs in the top of the ninth, Josh Bell had doubled, scoring a run and advancing Soto to third. The Nats were trailing 4–3, and Yadiel Hernandez was at bat. The Rockies catcher, Dom Nunez, fired to third, picking off Soto (WPA –.161). Hernandez, of course, then singled and advanced Bell to third, but Soto’s carelessness on the bases had cost the Nats at least one run. The next batter grounded into a double-play, ending the potential rally.
Cool fielding play:
On May 20, Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez, and Josh Bell combined for a triple play against the Brewers. It was the second one turned in Nationals’ history, with the first having been made by Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon on July 29, 2016.
After a lock-out delayed spring training, MLB started the season on April 7, a week later than initially planned. Making up for lost time, the Nats played 23 games in 24 days. Expectations were low, and it’s fair to say that the Nats didn’t meet them. They ended the month with a 7–16 record. Only the Reds had a worse record.
The season started at home with a four-game set against the Mets. The Nats lost three of four. Next came a three-game set against the Braves in Atlanta, and the Nats managed to take two of three against the 2021 World Series Champions. Moving to Pittsburgh, the Bucs won three of four, giving the Nats a 3–4 record on the road trip.
Returning to Washington, the Nats had four games scheduled against the Diamondbacks. The opening Monday night game was rained out, so they played a doubleheader the next day, which the Nats swept. At that point, the Nats were 6–7 and tied for second place in the NL East. But things quickly went south. They lost the next two games, splitting the series with the Diamondbacks. Next they faced the Giants and were swept in the three-game series. The home stand ended with three games against the Marlins, and the Nats again were swept. They were 2–8 in the home stand, ending with eight consecutive losses during which they scored only 16 runs (and never more than 3 in any one game). The bats had gone silent.
Then the month ended in San Francisco with the first two games of a three-game series, and suddenly the silent bats found their voices. The Nats won the opener 14 to 4 with 22 hits. They lost the second game, and were scheduled to end the road trip in May, with one more game coming in San Francisco, followed by series in Colorado and Anaheim.
Lucius Fox, a 24-year old infielder, made his major league debut on April 10. Starting pitcher Aaron Sanchez (with the Giants last season) and relief pitchers Erasmo Ramirez (with the Tigers last year) and waiver pickups Hunter Harvey (from the Orioles) and Francisco Perez (from the Indians) also joined the Nats during the month.
Record:
7–16 (.304)
Pythagorean Record:
7–16 (3.65 R/G – 5.35 RA/G)
April MVP:
Josh Bell (.365/.460/.527, 2 HR, 12 R, 15 RBI, 187 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR), with runner-up Juan Soto (.241/.406/.443, 4 HR, 15 R, 5 RBI, 149 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR).
Most valuable pitcher:
Victor Arano (0–0, 1.64 RA/9, 11 G, 11 IP, 11.5 K/9, .268 opp OBP, 1.81 RE24, 0.5 RA9-WAR, 2 shutdowns, 2 meltdowns). I rarely give this monthly award to a relief pitcher, but Arano, along with Sean Doolittle (before going on the injured list) and Tanner Rainey, really were pleasant surprises this month, and none of the starters were more than passable.
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Josiah Gray (2–2, 4.05 RA/9, 4 GS, 20 IP, 12.6 K/9, .353 opp OBP, 0.3 RA9-WAR).
Worst month:
Patrick Corbin (0–4, 9.15 RA/9, 5 GS, 19⅔ IP, 10.5 K/9, .430 opp OBP, –0.7 RA9-WAR), with dishonorable mentions also going to Lucius Fox (.000/.048/.000, 23 PA, –0.7 fWAR) and Nelson Cruz (.155/.253/.226, 2 HR, 96 PA, –0.6 fWAR).
Best start this month:
Joan Adon (April 19, second game of doubleheader,1–0 win over the Diamondbacks at home) pitched 6⅓ scoreless innings, giving up 3 hits and 2 walks and striking out 5 for a game score of 70.
Worst start:
Patrick Corbin (April 22, 7–1 loss to the Giants at home) gave up 7 runs on 7 hits and 3 walks in 1⅔ innings with 4 strikeouts for a game score of 14.
Tough losses:
- Erick Fedde (April 27, 2–1 loss to the Marlins at home) gave up 2 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks in 4⅔ innings, while striking out 5, for a game score of 52.
- Patrick Corbin (April 28, 3–2 loss to the Marlins at home) gave up 3 runs (2 earned) on 4 hits and 2 walks in 6 innings, while striking out 8, for a game score of 60.
Cheap win:
- Aaron Sanchez (April 29, 14–4 win over the Giants in San Francisco) gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and no walks in 5 innings, while striking out 4, for a game score of 47.
Best shutdown:
Tanner Rainey (April 19, second game of doubleheader, 1–0 win over the Diamondbacks at home). Rainey got the call to pitch the bottom of the ninth in a 1–0 game, facing the heart of the D-backs’ order. He promptly gave up a single, a walk, and another single to load the bases with no outs. But he got out of the jam with a strikeout, a foul pop-up, and a fly to left field for the final out. (Win probability added/WPA +.157)
Worst meltdown:
Steve Cishek (April 17, 5–3 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh). The Nats were ahead 3–2 when Cishek got the call to pitch the bottom of the seventh. The first two batters hit singles, and a sacrifice bunt moved them to second and third. An intentional walk to Vogelbach loaded the bases, setting up a possible double play. Cishek then let loose a wild pitch, tying the game and advancing the other two runners. Another single put the Bucs ahead and finished Cishek’s night. (WPA –.516)
Clutch hit:
Nelson Cruz (April 10, 4–2 win over the Mets at home). The score was tied 2–2 and the bases were loaded with 2 outs when Cruz came to bat in the bottom of the eighth. Cruz’s hit a ground ball up the middle that made its way past the diving Lindor, driving in two runs and putting the Nats ahead. (WPA +.311)
Choke:
Juan Soto (April 21, 4–3 loss to the Diamondbacks at home). In the bottom of the ninth, the bases loaded and the Nats trailing by one, Soto had his chance to tie or win the game. Facing Mark Melancon, Soto popped out to end the game. (WPA –.267)
With the Nationals in rebuilding mode, the team patched some gaps during the offseason but did little that seems likely to affect their longer term hopes of reconstituting a winning team. Here’s a quick review of what’s changed during the offseason.
Departures
The one truly notable departure was Mr. National himself, Ryan Zimmerman. On February 15, he announced he was concluding his 17-year career with the Washington Nationals and retiring as a player. His personal services contract will maintain his association with the organization until at least 2026. On March 21, the team announced that they will retire his number 11, making him the first Nat to receive this honor.
Two other veterans also retired. Alex Avila announced his retirement a couple of weeks before the end of last season, while Jody Mercer waited until April 5 to announce his retirement.
Long-time Nats relief pitcher, Wander Suero, departed via free agency and signed with the Angels. Jhon Romero was claimed by the Twins on waivers. Ryne Harper was non-tendered and has yet to land with another team. Sean Nolin had initially signed to a minor league contract, but the Nats released him so that he could sign with the Kia Tigers of the KBO.
Arrivals
With the National League finally adopting the DH this season, the Nats filled the position with their most notable acquisition of the off-season, 41-year old free agent Nelson Cruz. Signed to a one-year, $16 million contract, Cruz had a 130 OPS+ last season, splitting the year between the Twins and the Rays. The Nats took the gamble that he can keep up the production for at least one more season.
The Nats infield has been augmented with free agent second baseman, Cesar Hernandez, and third baseman, Maikel Franco, both former long-time Phillies. Hernandez finished last season with the White Sox, while Franco was released by the Orioles and finished last season in the Braves minor league system. They also signed utility infielder, Ehire Adrianza, most recently with the Braves. The Nats picked up Lucius Fox, who has not yet appeared in the majors, from the Orioles on a waivers claim. In the outfield, the Nats signed Dee Strange-Gordon, who has been kicking around with many organizations, but who Nats fans likely remember as a Marlin. He spent last year in the minors, splitting the season among the Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates organizations.
The Nats brought back Anibal Sanchez to take one of the spots in the starting rotation. Sanchez had not played during 2021. They signed free agent relief pitchers, Steve Cishek (most recently an Angel, but likely known to Nats fans as a former Marlin) and Sean Doolittle (a Nat from 2017 to 2020; most recently with the Mariners). They also signed relief pitcher and former Nat, Tyler Clippard, to a minor league contract. Clip has spent time with many organizations, mostly recently with the Diamondbacks. And relief pitcher Victor Arano, another former Phillie who spent 2021 in the minors in the Braves system, made the team as a non-roster invitee.
Injuries
The main names starting the season on the injured list are pitchers—Will Harris, Seth Romero, and Joe Ross on the 60-day IL and Stephen Strasburg on the 10-day IL. Also, third baseman Carter Kieboom starts the season on the 60-day IL with a UCL sprain in his right elbow, and Ehire Adrianza is on the 10-day IL with a quad injury.
The Nationals went 7-20 in August, their worst monthly record since April 2009.
I’m traveling now, so the regular month in review post will be delayed until sometime after Labor Day.
On Monday Jon Lester pitched by far his best game of the season—7 shutout innings, allowing 6 hits and no walks, while striking out 7. Due to the All-Star break, he was also pitching on eight days rest.
I decided to check Lester’s splits for pitching on days rest. Here are his splits for 2019 through 2021:
| Split | W | L | ERA | G | IP | WHIP | IP/G | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 |
| 4 Days Rest | 8 | 11 | 6.77 | 28 | 135.7 | 1.75 | 4.8 | 12.7 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 8.6 |
| 5 Days Rest | 6 | 5 | 3.98 | 19 | 104.0 | 1.46 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 7.2 |
| 6+ Days Rest | 5 | 1 | 1.56 | 10 | 57.7 | 0.99 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 6.2 |
That’s a pretty dramatic set of numbers! In 10 starts on six or more days rest, Lester looks like a Cy Young contender. In 19 starts on five days rest, he’s about a league average pitcher. And in 28 starts on four days rest, he doesn’t look like he belongs on a major league staff.
Could this just be random (luck)? Well one set of numbers does give me pause—his strikeout numbers are actually lower with more rest. That suggests that balls in play are a pretty important factor, and we know that we should always assume that hits on balls in play are mostly random. But his walks and home runs are much lower with 6+ days of rest, which suggests that it’s not entirely balls in play.
Now let me tell the story of Ted Lyons, who pitched for the Chicago White Sox from 1923 to 1946. With a 260–230 career record and 118 career ERA+, he has sometimes been criticized as a weak Hall of Famer, though I think he was ultimately deserving of the honor. What’s always been interesting to me is his notable improvement late in his career
From 1935 to 1938 (ages 34 to 37) Lyons was a good pitcher. His 3.98 ERA for those years was from a high scoring league, so his ERA+ was a very respectable 122. But from 1939 to to 1942 (ages 38 through 41), Lyons reached a new level. His ERA fell to 2.96, his ERA+ rose to 143, and his record was 52–30. During those years he won the ERA title one season, had the league’s lowest walk rate for three seasons, the best strikeout/walk ratio in two seasons, led the league in shutouts one season, and led the league in FIP and WHIP for one season each (not that anyone would have known what those meant in 1939). I don’t think he would have made the Hall of Fame without his late career surge in performance.
What makes that even more interesting is that during those last four seasons, Lyons was used mostly as a “Sunday pitcher.” That is, most of his starts were made on Sundays, pitching on six days rest. The longer rest seems to have rejuvenated his career. In his Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James wrote “I still think the use of an older pitcher on a regular once-a-week basis makes all the sense in the world. If you’ve got a pitcher who knows enough to get by without beating himself, if you give him a couple of extra days to come back from the last outing and get ready for the next one, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to give you fifteen good outings out of twenty starts.”
Is this a schedule that would work for Lester? Of course, if the Nats were to move Lester to a once-a-week schedule, they would need an occasional sixth starter. But guess what? When Stephen Strasburg and/or Joe Ross come back, the Nationals will have five or even six starters (if you count Paolo Espino, which I would) all of whom have been pitching better than Lester. I think they should try moving Lester to a once-a-week schedule and see if his performance improves. There doesn’t seem much to lose.
While I do favor trying Lester on a once-a-week schedule, I wouldn’t have his regular start come on Sundays. Back in 2012 when we were hoping that the Nats could keep Strasburg in the rotation long enough for the post-season, I recommended that he pitch once-a-week on Fridays. But well-known baseball blogger Tangotiger examined the options and found that Saturdays would work best in terms of causing the least disruption to the scheduled starts of the other pitchers in the rotation.
I’d love to see if Lester could revive his career as a “Saturday pitcher.”
At the beginning of June, the Nationals had a 21–29 record and were in last place in the NL East, 7 games behind the division-leading Mets. There was already speculation about which players would be traded before the deadline. The team’s fortunes continued to decline during the first 12 days of June, as they went 5–6 and successively lost Stephen Strasburg, Austin Voth, Daniel Hudson, and Max Scherzer to injuries. Then the wheel of fortune began to turn. Kyle Schwarber started hitting home runs almost daily. The starting pitchers pitched well. Players like Josh Bell and Starlin Castro who had been struggling at the plate began hitting. And the Nats began winning close games. From June 13 through 30, the Nats went 14–3, making their record for the full month 19–9. They finished the month with a 40–38 record and in second place, only 2 games behind the Mets.
On June 1 the Nats were in Atlanta, having lost the first game of a four-game series with the Braves. Strasburg had to be pulled in the second inning and would spend the rest of the month on the injured list with a neck strain, but the Nats won 11 to 6. The next night the Nats won a close game, but they lost the finale and split the series.
Their next stop was Philadelphia, where the Nats won one of three games against the Phillies. In the first game, Scherzer pitched well enough for the Nats to win despite scoring only two runs, but the Nats lost the next two. In the finale, Voth, who was making his first start of the season, was struck in the face by a pitch in his first batting appearance, breaking his nose. The bullpen had to finish the game, and they gave up 12 runs in a 12–6 Nats loss. The road trip concluded in Tampa Bay, where the Nats split a two-game series. In the last game, the team had to battle back again and again to finally win in the 11th inning, and Tanner Rainey got his first career save. The Nats’ record on the road trip was 4–5.
Returning home, the Nats had a four-game series against the Giants, who had the best record in baseball. The first game, on Thursday, was rained out, which was probably for the best as the team was recovering from an early morning flight home after their extra-inning game in St. Petersburg. Scherzer took the mound on Friday evening but had to leave while facing his second batter. He went on the injured list with groin inflation, and while the bullpen pitched well, the Nats lost the game 1 to 0. Hudson also went on the IL with right elbow inflammation, while Erick Fedde returned to the roster from the Covid-19 IL. In the Saturday double header, the Nats won the first game 2 to 0 but lost the nightcap 2 to 1. The team had reached a low point with a 26–35 record, 8½ games out of first place. According to FanGraphs, the Nats’ probability of reaching the playoffs was down to just 1.7%.
But changes had been taking place that week that would indicate a turn in the team’s fortune. The previous Tuesday in the first game against the Rays, Davey Martinez had put Schwarber in the leadoff spot. Kyle went 0 for 3 with a walk that night, but Davey must have liked the idea because he had him lead off again in the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader against the Giants, and Schwarber hit a home run off their ace, Kevin Gausman. On Sunday, Davey returned Kyle to the leadoff spot, and this time he hit two home runs and drove in four. Schwarber would stay in the leadoff spot and the home runs would keep coming. By June 29 he had hit 16 home runs in 18 games, tying him for the record with Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa. His 12 home runs in a 10-game span tied the record with Albert Belle. His 11 home runs in a 9-game span tied the record with Frank Howard. His 16 home runs in a 75 plate appearance span set a major league record. He broke Bryce Harper‘s Nationals record of 13 home runs in a month. And Schwarber’s 7 leadoff home runs in a month tied the record that Alfonso Soriano set while playing with the Nationals in 2006.
The Giants series concluded on Sunday. After scoring only 3 runs in the first three games of the series, the Nats scored five to beat the Giants 5 to 0 and split the series with two wins each. Next came a three-game series against the Pirates, and the Nats swept it.
The home stand concluded with a four-game series against the Mets, including a Saturday doubleheader. The Nats won the first game 1 to 0 that ended with a Yan Gomes walk-off single. Fedde pitched seven scoreless innings, extending his streak of 20 scoreless innings. The Nats and Mets split the Saturday doubleheader. For Sunday’s game, Gerardo Parra appeared as a pinch hitter, and Nationals Park erupted to the singing of “Baby Shark” for the first time since October 2019. Parra had signed a minor league contract with the Nats after spending 2020 in Japan and was called up after Andrew Stevenson went on the IL. Parra hit a double, and for the rest of the month he would go 4 for 11 with a home run and two doubles while playing at Nats Park. Even more important for Sunday’s game, though, were Schwarber’s three home runs in the Nats’ 5 to 2 win. The Nats won the series three games to one, and the home stand eight games to three. Schwarber was named NL Player of the Week after hitting .385 with 6 home runs and 11 RBIs with a 1.491 OPS during the seven games of the Pirates and Mets series.
The Nats’ next road trip took them to Philadelphia and Miami. They played a two game series against the Phillies, and Scherzer, returning from the IL, started the first game. It was also the first Nats game in which umpires were required to regularly check all pitchers for controlled substances. During the fourth inning, after Scherzer had already been checked twice, Phillies manager Joe Girardi requested that Scherzer be checked again. Scherzer was outraged (and wasn’t found to have any controlled substances, and when Scherzer’s night was done he stared down Girardi, leading to the Phillies manager being ejected. The video clip was the talk of baseball that evening. The Nats won that game 3 to 2. They also won the next afternoon’s game 13 to 12. It was one of the wildest games I can remember—both teams hit grand slam home runs, and the Phillies kept getting ahead and the Nats kept coming back.
The four game series with the Marlins was a little tamer. The Nats won the first and last games, while the Marlins won the second and third ones. Kyle Finnegan went on the IL with a left hamstring strain, and Erick Fedde went back on the IL with an oblique strain. The Nats finished the road trip with a 4–2 record.
Returning home, the Nationals began their toughest stretch of 17 games this season. They were scheduled to face the top three teams in the National League (the Giants for three games, the Dodgers for four, and the Padres for seven), as well as the AL team with the third best record (the Rays for two games), while kicking off the span with a single game against the division-leading Mets. The Nats beat the Mets 8 to 4 behind several home runs. They finished the month by winning both games against the Rays, by scores of 4 to 3 and 15 to 6. The second game of the Rays series featured Trea Turner hitting for the cycle and tying the record for most career cycles with three. Setup man Tanner Rainey joined other Nats pitchers on the IL with a stress reaction in his lower right leg. Of the relievers who had formed the back of the Nats’ bullpen, only Brad Hand remained on the active roster. In the first half of July we’ll find out if the bullpen fend off the top teams in the NL West.
According to Fangraphs, at the end of June the Nats’ probability of making the playoffs stood at 12.5%. Fivethirtyeight.com was more optimistic, showing a 27% chance of making the playoffs, and Baseball-Reference was even more optimistic yet at 32%.
During June, the Nationals’ offense was one of the best in the National League. Their on-base percentage in June of .336 ranked second in the NL, and their slugging percentage of .448 ranked third. The comprehensive batting metric of weighted runs created (wRC+) was 112, which is 12% above average and ranked third in the NL.
The Nats’ starting pitchers’ ERA of 2.95 during June led the NL, which is pretty remarkable considering that Strasburg missed the entire month and Scherzer had to miss two starts. Joe Ross and Erick Fedde pitched well. And three pitchers who had not been expected to start (Paolo Espino, Jefry Rodriguez, and Austin Voth) made four starts and pitched a total of 16 innings without giving up a run.
The relief staff’s typical performance was about average. Their ERA of 4.05 ranked ninth in the NL, and their FIP of 3.86 ranked fifth. But they came through in timely, high-leverage situations—their 29 shutdowns during the month led the NL, and their 11 meltdowns was tied for fourth fewest.
Record:
19–9 (.679)
Pythagorean Record:
17–11 (4.68 R/G – 3.68 RA/G)
June MVP:
Kyle Schwarber (.280/.362/.760, 16 HR, 22 R, 30 RBI, 190 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR) was unbelievable over the 18 games from June 12 through 29 (.348, 16 HR, 27 RBIs). Schwarber was named National League Player of the Month. But I also want to recognize the runner-up, Trea Turner (.345/.398/.540, 4 HR, 24 R, 11 RBI, 6 SB, 155 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR).
Most valuable pitcher:
I call this a tie between Joe Ross (3–2, 3.06 RA/9, 5 G. 32⅓ IP, 9.2 K/9, .252 opp OBP, 1.0 RA9-WAR) and Max Scherzer (3–0, 1.42 RA/9, 4 G, 19 IP, 11.4 K/9, .267 opp OBP, 1.0 RA9-WAR).
Most valuable relief pitcher:
Brad Hand (2–0, 2.20 RA/9, 15 G, 16⅓ IP, 7.7 K/9, .222 opp OBP, 4.48 RE24, 0.6 RA9-WAR, 9 shutdowns, 1 meltdown).
Worst month:
Kyle Finnegan (1–2, 10.57 RA/9, 9 G, 7⅔ IP, 12.9 K/9, .342 opp OBP, –6.23 RE24, –0.7 RA-9 WAR, 4 shutdowns, 2 meltdowns). He really just had two bad outings, but then he wound up on the injured list.
Best start this month:
Joe Ross (June 13, 5–0 win over the Giants at home) pitched 8 scoreless innings, giving up 5 hits and no walks and striking out 9 for a game score of 81.
Worst start:
Jon Lester (June 25, 11–2 loss to the Marlins in Miami) gave up 7 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 2-1/3 innings with 1 strikeout, for a game score of 17.
Tough losses:
- Joe Ross (June 5, 5–2 loss to the Phillies in Philadelphia) gave up 4 unearned runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in 6 innings, while striking out 4, for a game score of 60.
- Patrick Corbin (June 26, 3–2 loss to the Marlins in Miami) gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and no walks in 6 innings, while striking out 6, for a game score of 56.
Cheap win:
- Jon Lester (June 30, 15–6 win over the Rays at home) gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings, while striking out 3, for a game score of 34.
Best shutdowns:
Usually, here I just report the relief appearance with the highest win probability added, which this time was an important and interesting save. But the second highest appearance is probably a “better” pitching performance, so I’ll report both of them.
Brad Hand (June 22, 3–2 win over the Phillies in Philadelphia). Tanner Rainey had just given up a home run to cut the Nats’ lead to one run when Hand got the call to face Andrew McCutcheon with two outs in the bottom of the eighth, the Nats ahead 3 to 2. Hand struck out Cutch and got out of the inning. Coming back for the save in the bottom of the ninth, a lot of Nats fans found their hearts racing when Hand gave up a leadoff double to Bohm. After getting a fly for an out, Hand let the go-ahead run get on base with a hit batsman. Then Vierling singled to load the bases, still with one out. Herrera flied out to short left, and Hoskins hit a grounder that Trea Turner was able to field and get the final out. (WPA +.228) Yes, it was a high-leverage shutdown, but we could have done without the white knuckles.
The next afternoon, Paolo Espino (June 23, 13–12 victory over the Phillies in Philadelphia) delivered a more conventional shutdown. After a game in which the Phillies had a see-saw battle, with each team taking the lead only to have its relievers surrender it, the Nats regained a 13–12 lead in the top of the ninth. The Nats had used six relievers already, and Hand, having pitched four of the previous five days, was not availab.e, so the call for the ninth went to Espino. He got Hoskins and Harper to fly out. Realmuto reached on an error, but Miller lined out to end the inning and one of the craziest games I’ve ever seen. It was the 34 year-old Espino’s first career save and came just a week after his first career win. (WPA +.197)
Worst meltdown:
Kyle Finnegan (June 6, 12–6 loss to the Phillies in Philadelphia). The Nats had to go to their bullpen early when starter Austin Voth was hit in the face with a pitch in the top of the third. When Finnegan got the call in the bottom of the fourth, the Nats were ahead 3 to 0, there was one out, and runners were on first and second. The first batter he faced reached on an error. Then he gave up a single, followed by two walks, tying the game at three apiece. Then came a fielder’s choice that wasn’t able to nab the runner, scoring another run, followed by a strikeout accompanied by a wild pitch that scored another. Finnegan left the game with the Nats trailing 5 to 3 and runners still on second and third (who would both score). (WPA –.656)
Clutch hit:
Josh Bell (June 23, 13–12 win over the Phillies in Philadelphia). Bell came to bat in the top of the sixth with the bases loaded and the Nats traiing 9 to 7. On the seventh pitch of the at-bat, he drove a fastball the other way for a grand slam and put the Nats ahead 11 to 9. (WPA +.502) The Nats would need another clutch hit in that game—Starlin Castro‘s one-out two-RBI single in the top of the ninth to put the team ahead 13 to 12 for the win. (WPA +.395)
Choke:
Victor Robles (June 12, 2–1 loss to the Giants at home in the second game of a doubleheader). The game had gone to extra innings when both teams were scoreless at the end of the seventh. The Giants scored two in the top of the eighth, but the Nats got one of them back when Starlin Castro led off with a double, driving in the automatic runner. Robles was hit by a pitch and took first, bringing Kyle Schwarber to bat, still with no outs. Schwarber flied out to center, and Castro advanced to third. Inexplicably, Robles also tried to advance and was easily thrown out, making the second out and removing the go-ahead run. It was a terrible base-running decision and may have cost the Nationals the game. While I don’t know the WPA just for Robles’s part of the play, I assume it accounts for most of the –.358 WPA recorded on the double play.
Favorite defensive plays:
- Starlin Castro made a nice pick to start a double play.
- Josh Harrison made a diving play to get the runner.
Nats Noodles 