The Nationals started the month of May playing well but then fell into a 7-game losing streak. But after the streak broke, they won 11 of 15 and ended the month with their first winning month since August 2023.
As May began, the Nats were in Philadelphia playing the last game of a three-game series against the Phillies, having lost the first two. They won the game and went to Cincinnati for three games against the Reds. The Nats lost the first game but won the next two for a series win and for a 3–3 record on the road trip.
Back home, the Nats first faced the Guardians. The first game was rained out, forcing a doubleheader the next day. The Nats won the first game, a wild back-and-forth game in which the Nats ultimately held on for a 10–9 win. They were blown out 9–1 in the second and went on to lose the third game the next day, having played three games in less than 24 hours. Michael Soroka returned to the rotation for the third game after five weeks on the injured list, bumping Brad Lord into the bullpen. The next team the Nats faced was the Cardinals. In the first game the Nats were blown out and shut out, 10–0, with the shutout delivered by ex-Nat Erick Fedde. Their offensive woes continued in the next two games, both of which were losses, as they were outscored 20–3 in the three-game sweep. The Nats had a 1–5 record on the home stand, finishing it with a five-game losing streak.
Their next road trip began with a four-game series against the Braves in Atlanta. In the first game the Nats rallied to score two runs in the top of the ninth to tie the game, but the bullpen gave up the walk-off run in the bottom of the inning. They also lost the second game, extending their losing streak to seven games. But they finally turned things around in third game. Trailing 4–1 after 6, they scored two in the 7th and another two in the 8th to take a 5–4 lead, which the bullpen was able to hold for the win. The next day they lost the finale, giving them a 1–3 record for the series.
Their next stop was in Baltimore to play the Orioles. In the first game, the Nats again rallied from behind, tying the game in the top of the eighth and scoring a run to put them ahead in the top of the ninth, resulting in a 4–3 win. They beat the Orioles again in the next two games, hitting 5 home runs in game 3 with Michael Soroka recording his first win since July 2023. These victories gave them a sweep of the three-game series and a 4–3 record on the road trip.
Back home, the Nats again faced off with the Braves. They won the first game, then the second game was rained out, scheduled to be made up on September 16 in a day-night doubleheader. The Nats also won the final game. The victory came after the Braves tied it in the 9th inning, but the Nats managed to walk it off in the 10th. Also, the parents of Keibert Ruiz had their first opportunity to watch their son play in person in America, and he hit a double to drive in the Nats’ first run. The win gave the Nats a sweep of the two-game series as well as a five-game winning streak.
Next came the Giants. The Nats were shut out 4–0 in the first game but shut out the Giants 3–0 in the second. In the final game, the Nats were unable to overcome a 3–2 deficit and lost the game and the series. For the home stand, their record was 3–2.
The month ended with the Nats on a west coast road trip. In the first game against the Mariners in Seattle, the Nats were blown out 9–1. But the next night, it was the Nats’ turn to win a blow out, 9–0. The final game was a close one, still tied 2–2 after 9 innings. But for the first time in Nationals history, they scored 7 runs in extra innings to beat the Mariners 9–3.
The month of May concluded with the Nats in Phoenix playing the first two games of a three-game series against the Diamondbacks. The first game was a slugfest, which the Nats won 9–7. The second game was one for the record books, as the Nats’ first 11 batters all reached base (the first time this has happened since the Red Sox did it in 2003), and as the Nats scored 10 runs in the first inning (a club record). Furthermore, their four consecutive games scoring 9 or more runs was another club record. Nevertheless, despite their 11–0 lead after two innings, the Diamondbacks came back to make the game uncomfortably close, and the Nats’ final margin of victory was 11–7.
For the month of May, the Nats had a 15–12 record, their first winning month since August 2023 when they went 17–11. They had started the month in fourth place, 8 games behind the division-leading Mets. At the end of the month, with a 28–30 overall record, they were in third place (having slipped ahead of the Braves), 8 games behind the Mets and the Phillies, who were tied for the lead in the divisional race.
The improved Nats record in May reflected improvements in their batting. In May they ranked 5th in the NL in runs scored (with 133), 7th in home runs (with 27), 5th in slugging (.409) and 6th in weighted runs created, or wRC+ (105). The relief pitching was much improved, with team relief pitcher ERA improving from 7.41 (last in the NL) in March/April to 4.62 (9th in the NL) in May. The starting pitching, however, got worse, with its ERA going from 4.04 (9th) in March/April to 4.91 (14th) in May.
The roster underwent a number of changes during the month. On May 1, reliever Colin Poche was designated for assignment. His record with the Nats was 1–2 with an 11.42 ERA and 2.538 WHIP in 13 games, 8⅔ innings. After he elected free agency, he signed a minor league contract with the Mets. As a replacement, the team signed Andrew Chafin, a 34-year-old lefty reliever who had pitched 601 games over 11 seasons with a 3.42 ERA and 1.275 WHIP with the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Athletics, Tigers, Brewers, and Rangers. On May 10 the Nats released reliever Lucas Sims, whose record with the Nats was 1–0 with a 13.86 ERA and 2.270 WHIP in 18 games, 12⅓ innings. He went on to sign a minor league contract with the Phillies.
On May 22, 23-year-old left-handed center fielder Robert Hassell III made his major league debut, taking the place of Dylan Crews, who went on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain. Hassell was drafted by the Padres in the first round, 8th overall, of the 2020 amateur draft and came to the Nationals system in the 2022 Juan Soto trade (the fourth prospect from that trade to make it to the majors). His arrival was delayed by injuries—a fractured hamate bone in 2022 and another hand injury in 2024. In 37 plate appearances in May with the Nats, Hassell hit .270/.270/.351 with 1 home run, 6 RBI, and some superb defense.
The next evening, 22-year-old lefty-batting right fielder Daylen Lile made his major league debut, taking the place of Jacob Young, who went on the IL with a left shoulder AC sprain. Lile was drafted out of high school by the Nationals in the second round of the 2021 amateur draft. In 28 plate appearances in May with the Nats, Lile hit .208/.286/.375 with 2 RBI.
On May 31, reliever Jorge Lopez was designated for assignment. His record with the Nats was 6–0 (though 2 of those wins came after blown saves, the quintessential “vulture wins”), with a 6.57 ERA and 1.297 WHIP in 26 G, 24⅔ innings. With the departures of Poche, Sims, and Lopez, all of the veteran relief pitchers signed during the off-season (other than the re-signed Kyle Finnegan) are gone with nothing in return, with the team still responsible for paying them their full salaries—$1.4 million to Poche, $3 million to Sims, and $3 million to Lopez (assuming he clears waivers).
Record:
15–12 (.556)
Pythagorean Record:
13–14 (4.93 R/G – 5.00 RA/G)
May MVP:
- James Wood (.330/.410/.604, 7 HR, 19 R, 23 RBI, 6 SB, 1 CS, 122 PA, 177 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR). For the month of May, he ranked 5th in the NL in RBI, 4th in slugging percentage, and 3rd in fWAR.
Starting pitcher of the month:
- MacKenzie Gore (0–2, 2.63 RA/9, 5 GS, 27⅓ IP, 13.8 K/9, .333 opp OBP, 1.0 RA9-WAR, 0.8 fWAR). For the month of May, his 42 strikeouts were tied for 3rd in the NL, and he led the league in K/9.
Relief pitcher of the month:
- Cole Henry (0-0, 0.00 RA/9, 12 G, 14 IP, 7.1 K/9, .231 opp OBP, 6.38 RE24, 3 shutdowns, 0 meltdown, 0.7 RA9-WAR, 0.2 fWAR).
Worst month:
- Mitchell Parker (1–3, 7.94 RA/9, 5 G, 22⅔ IP, 7.9 K/9, .371 opp OBP, –0.5 RA9-WAR, 0.1 fWAR). Others who could have won included Keibert Ruiz (54 wRC+, –0.5 fWAR), Nathaniel Lowe (63 wRC+, –0.5 fWAR), and Jackson Rutledge (–8.57 RE24, –0.5 RA9-WAR).
Best start:
- Jake Irvin (May 24, 3–0 win over the Giants at home) pitched 8 scoreless innings, giving up 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 81.
Worst start:
- Jake Irvin (May 30, 9–7 win over the Diamondbacks in Phoenix) gave up 6 runs on 10 hits and 1 walk in 5 innings with no strikeouts for a game score of 22. When he left the game, the Nats and D-backs were tied 6–6, but the Nats scored 2 runs in the top of the sixth to get the lead and credit Irvin with the win.
Tough losses:
- Brad Lord (May 6, 9–1 loss to the Guardians at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4 for a game score of 57.
- MacKenzie Gore (May 11, 6–1 loss to the Cardinals at home) pitched 6⅔ innings and gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 52.
- MacKenzie Gore (May 23, 4–0 loss to the Giants at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 1 run on 2 hits and 3 walks while striking out 9 for a game score of 70. The run charged to Gore was an inherited runner who scored after Gore left the game.
- Michael Soroka (May 25, 3–2 loss to the Giants at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 2 for a game score of 51.
Cheap wins:
- Trevor Williams (May 3, 11–6 win over the Reds in Cincinnati) pitched 5⅓ innings and gave up 4 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 for a game score of 36.
- Mitchell Parker (May 20, 5–3 win over the Braves at home) pitched 5⅓ innings and gave up 3 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4 for a game score of 47.
- Jake Irvin (May 30, 9–7 win over the Diamondbacks in Phoenix) – see “Worst start” above.
- Michael Soroka (May 31, 11–7 win over the Diamondbacks in Phoenix) pitched 5⅓ innings and gave up 4 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 3 for a game score of 42.
Biggest shutdown:
- Jackson Rutledge (May 22, 8–7 win over the Braves at home). Rutledge was brought in in the top of the tenth with the score tied 7–7 and an automatic runner at second. He got the first out on a fly to center, then gave up an infield single that advanced the runner to third. He then induced a ground ball double play to end the inning without a run scoring. (Win probability added/WPA +.309). The Nats scored the walk-off run in the bottom of the inning.
Worst meltdown:
- Jorge Lopez (May 29, 9–3 win over the Mariners in Seattle). Lopez entered in the bottom of the seventh with the Nats leading 2–0. The umpire, who had been missing calls all night, missed the calls on about three pitches that should have been strikes, resulting in a walk to the first batter and Lopez barking at the umpire. Davey Martinez went out to the mound to settle Lopez down, and Lopez retired the next two batters on a strikeout and a groundout. But those were followed by a run-scoring single, a stolen base, a wild pitch advancing the runner to third, and another RBI single to tie the game before Lopez was taken out (WPA –0.351). The game went to extra innings, and the Nats rallied in the top of the 10th to score 7 runs and win the game. This game would be the last appearance by Lopez as a National.
Walk offs:
- Amed Rosario (May 22, 8–7 win over the Braves in 10 innings at home). The Nats entered the bottom of the tenth with the game still tied 7–7, and Robert Hassell III, in his first major league game, was the designated runner at second. Alex Call hit a sacrifice bunt to move Hassell to third, then Rosario came into the game as a pinch hitter and hit a walk off single to left to end a wild game. (WPA +.174)
Clutch hit:
- Nasim Nuñez & José Tena (May 16, 4–3 win over the Orioles in Baltimore). Nuñez came to bat in the top of the ninth with two outs, Tena at second, and the score tied 3–3. He hit what appeared to be a routine grounder to the first baseman, but by speeding down the line, he beat the pitcher to the bag and was called safe. Meanwhile, Tena rounded third and kept running home, and not only did Tena beat the pitcher’s throw, but the ball sailed into the dugout and Nuñez was able to advance to third. (WPA +.372)
Choke:
- CJ Abrams (May 12, 4–3 loss to the Braves in Atlanta). Trailing the Braves 3 to 1 in the top of the eighth, there were runners on first and second and no outs when Abrams came to bat. He grounded into a double play. (WPA –.203).
Memorable fielding plays:
- Dylan Crews runs down a tough flyball and makes a diving catch.
- CJ Abrams scoops and Luis García Jr spins to turn a colorful game-ending double play.
- Robert Hassell III shows off the glove with a diving catch.
- Daylen Lile steals a home run at the right field fence.
- James Wood makes the throw and Keibert Ruiz makes the tag to save a run.
For the fourth consecutive season, the Nationals started the season with low expectations after spending the off-season shopping in the bargain basement. The Fangraphs forecast before the season began showed the Nats winning 72 games, good for fourth place in the NL East, and only a 3% chance of making the playoffs. Still, with breakouts possible from several of the young players, there was hope that the team might exceed expectations and provide the platform for building a truly competitive team.
A couple of important news items appeared just before the season began. One was from television announcer Bob Carpenter saying that he planned to retire at the end of the season. 2025 is his 20th season as the Nats’ play-by-play announcer and his 42nd season in MLB. The other news item was more ominous—pitcher DJ Herz was going on the injured list with a UCL sprain in his elbow. As often follows from such news, we later learned that he underwent Tommy John surgery on April 18, leaving him out of baseball for the coming year.
The Nationals opened the season at home on March 27 against the Phillies. The first game went to extra innings but ended with a loss, as did the second game. But the Nats won the third game to avoid a sweep. In the third game, Brad Lord, a 25-year-old right-handed pitcher whom the Nats had drafted in the 18th round of the 2022 draft, made his major league debut in relief.
The team then had a short, one-city road trip to Toronto to face the Blue Jays. In the first game, Michael Soroka, making his Nationals debut, started the game but took the loss after leaving with a biceps strain that put him on the 15-day injured list. He didn’t pitch the rest of the month. In the second game, the Nats rallied to tie the game in the top of the seventh but gave up two runs in the bottom of the eighth for their second loss. They also lost the third game, getting swept by the Jays and leaving them with a 1–5 record.
Back in Washington, the Nats’ next series was against the Diamondbacks. Several members of the 2005 Nationals returned to Washington for the series, which honored the 20th anniversary of the return of MLB to the city. The Nationals lost the first game but won the next two for their first series win of the season. All three games were close ones, each decided by one or two runs.
Next, the Nats hosted the Dodgers, who many writers considered to be the best team in baseball. The Nats got some clutch hits and good pitching to win the first game. Brad Lord started the second game, moving from the bullpen to the rotation to take Soroka’s place. (Lord had mainly been a starter in the minor leagues.) James Wood homered twice to lead the Nats to victory in game two. The Nats fell to the Dodgers in game three but won the series, giving them a 4–2 record for the homestand.
Their next road trip opened in Miami against the Marlins. In the first game, the Nats rallied for a comeback win. But CJ Abrams suffered a right hip flexor strain, which put him on the 10-day IL. The Nats then lost the second and third games and the series. In the third game Cole Henry, a 25-year-old right-handed relief pitcher, made his major league debut. Henry was the Nats’ second-round draft pick in 2020. The path of the former top prospect to the majors was delayed by injuries, leading him to have surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in August 2022. This spring he switched to a full-time relief role.
The Nats then went to Pittsburgh for a four-game series against the Pirates. They lost the first game to the Pirates ace, Paul Skenes, but came back to shut out the Bucs in the second game. In the top of the sixth inning, Paul Dejong was hit in the face by a fastball. He was placed on the injured list and ultimately had surgery to repair a broken nose and damage to the sinuses and the orbital bone, leaving him sidelined until at least July. Game three will be remembered for Jorge Lopez‘s inability to locate his pitches on a chilly night, which culminated with a pitch thrown just above Andrew McCutchen’s head. The umpire didn’t appear likely to do anything until the Pirates manager came out to argue that Lopez’s pitch was intentional. McCutchen and Lopez then began exchanging words and the benches cleared. The umpire then ejected Lopez from the game. I don’t believe that it was intentional—Lopez had been wild all inning, and what pitcher intentionally tries to hit someone when it will fill the bases in a two-run game? At any rate, McCutchen walked and the next batter, Oneil Cruz, immediately hit a grand slam off Eduardo Salazar to turn a 2–0 score to 6–0. The Nats lost 6–1. In the fourth game, the Nats were shut out, losing a pitchers’ duel 1–0, and losing the series 3 games to 1.
The road trip concluded with a three-game series in Colorado. The first game scheduled for Friday night was postponed due to snow, to be made up in a Sunday doubleheader. On Saturday the Nats went into the bottom of the seventh leading 12–2 but ultimately barely held on to win the game 12–11. The games in the Sunday doubleheader were lower scoring, with the Nats winning the first one 3–2 but losing the second 3–1. They finished the road trip with a 4–6 record.
Back home, the Nats opened the home stand with a three-game series against the Orioles. They won the first two games but lost the third. Their next series was four games against the division-leading Mets, who at the time had a .720 winning percentage, the best in baseball. The first three games were all hard fought, with the Nats winning ninth inning walk-off victories in the first and third games but losing the second game 2–0. The fourth game, however, was a blowout, with the Mets winning 19–5. For the home stand overall, the Nats had a 4–3 record against two good opponents.
The month concluded with the Nats in Philadelphia playing the first two games of a three-game series against the Phillies. They lost both games, ending the month with an overall record of 13–18, which left them in fourth place in the NL East, 8 games behind the division-leading Mets.
For the month of April (including the games in late March), the Nats’ greatest strength was their starting pitching, which was roughly league average. Their starters’ ERA was 4.04 (ranking 18th among the 30 teams), while their park-adjusted ERA– was 99 (16th) and their fielding independent pitching or FIP– was 95 (14th). The Nats relievers, however, were a different story. Their ERA was a dismal 7.41, dead last among the 30 MLB teams. The story doesn’t change much if you look at their ERA– of 181 (30th) or FIP– of 126 (29th). The Nats’ offense was, overall, only a bit below average. Their weighted runs created plus (wRC+, a park-adjusted measure of overall batting effectiveness) was 95, ranking 18th among the 30 teams.
In addition to the major league debuts of Lord and Henry, the players that the Nats acquired during the off-season made their debuts with the team early in the season. Nathaniel Lowe became the regular first baseman, and Paul DeJong was the regular third baseman until his April 15 injury. Amed Rosario was the main utility infielder, appearing in 17 games and starting in 10 of them. And Josh Bell, who returned to the Nats after a two-and-a-half season gap, was the regular DH. Starting pitcher Michael Soroka started the season in the rotation but was injured in his first start. And relievers Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, and Colin Poche all pitched regularly, though not always successfully, from the bullpen.
Record:
13–18 (.419)
Pythagorean Record:
12–19 (4.23 R/G – 5.29 RA/G)
April MVP:
- MacKenzie Gore (2–3, 3.51 RA/9, 7 GS, 41 IP, 13.0 K/9, .280 opp OBP, 1.0 RA9-WAR, 1.3 fWAR). For the “month” of March/April, he ranked first in MLB in strikeouts, second in K/9, and sixth in fWAR. I feel like this month marked his emergence as a potential ace pitcher. I’ll add a nod to Mitchell Parker, who also had an outstanding month with 1.1 RA9-WAR and 0.7 fWAR.
Position player of the month:
- James Wood (.250/.360/.543, 9 HR, 19 R, 21 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS, 136 PA, 151 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR). He was tied for second place in the NL for home runs and ranked 8th in slugging and 5th in isolated power.
Relief pitcher of the month:
- Jackson Rutledge (0-0, 2.61 RA/9, 7 G, 10⅓ IP, 12.2 K/9, .333 opp OBP, 3.57 RE24, 2 shutdowns, 0 meltdown, 0.2 RA9-WAR).
Worst month:
- Eduardo Salazar (0–1, 9.24 RA/9, 14 G, 12⅔ IP, 7.8 K/9, .446 opp OBP, 8 of 10 inherited runners scored, –13.48 RE24, 3 shutdowns, 3 meltdowns, –0.2 fWAR). I note there was stiff competition for this recognition, including Josh Bell (43 wRC+, –0.7 fWAR), Lucas Sims (–8.84 RE24, –0.4 fWAR), and Colin Poche (–7.04 RE24, –0.2 fWAR).
Best start:
- MacKenzie Gore (opening day – March 27, 7–3 loss to the Phillies at home) pitched 6 scoreless innings giving up 1 hit and no walks while striking out 13 for a game score of 83. He outpitched Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler, and left with the Nats holding a 1–0 lead. Sadly, the bullpen was unable to hold it. A nod also to the runner-up, Mitchell Parker, who on April 22 pitched 8 scoreless innings with a game score of 82 en route to a 7–0 victory.
Worst start:
- Mitchell Parker (April 27, 8–7 win over the Mets at home) gave up 7 runs on 7 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings with no strikeouts for a game score of 22. When he left the game, the Nats were trailing 7–1, but the team rallied to score 5 runs in the seventh and 2 more in the ninth to walk off the Mets.
Tough losses:
- Mitchell Parker (April 16, 6–1 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh) pitched 6 innings and gave up 1 run on 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 6 for a game score of 65.
- Trevor Williams (April 17, 1–0 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh) pitched 5 innings and gave up 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 59.
- MacKenzie Gore (April 24, 2–1 loss to the Orioles at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 8 for a game score of 63.
Cheap wins:
- Trevor Williams (April 6, 5–4 win over the Diamondbacks at home), pitched 5 innings and gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 49.
Biggest shutdown:
- Jose A. Ferrer (April 20, 3–2 win over the Rockies in the first game of a doubleheader in Denver). When Ferrer was brought in in the bottom of the seventh, there was one out and a runner on first, and the Nats held a 3–2 lead. The first batter he faced grounded into a double play. He returned in the eighth for an additional scoreless inning, allowing one hit and striking out two. (Win probability added/WPA +.280).
Worst meltdown:
- Kyle Finnegan (April 29, 7–6 loss to the Phillies in Philadelphia). The Nats had rallied to score 4 runs in the top of the ninth and take a 6–5 lead, stunning the crowd in Citizens Bank Park. In the bottom of the inning Finnegan was called on to get three outs. The first batter he faced, Alec Bohm, singled to right field. That was followed with a walk to Bryson Stott. Bohm was able to advance to third on a flyball to deep center field for the first out. Stott then stole second. Another flyball to right field scored Bohm, tying the game, and allowed Stott to advance to third. Then a wild pitch to Trea Turner allowed Stott to score for the Phillies’ walk off win. (WPA –.800).
Walk offs:
- James Wood (April 25, 5–4 win over the Mets at home). The Nats entered the bottom of the ninth trailing the Mets 4–3. Dylan Crews led off with a triple to the right field wall that Juan Soto wasn’t able to handle and was driven home by a single from Jose Tena. The next two batters grounded into force plays at second base, leaving CJ Abrams at first with two outs, when Wood stepped to the plate. On a 3–2 count, Wood hit a groundball past the second baseman into center field for a single. The Mets were playing a deep no-doubles defense, so by the time the center fielder got the ball home, Abrams was sliding in to score the walk-off run. (WPA +.437)
- Luis Garcia Jr. (April 27, 8–7 win over the Mets at home). The Nats had been behind 7–1 going into the bottom of the seventh but scored 5 runs to narrow their deficit to a single run. In the bottom of the ninth, Alex Call led off with a double. Jacob Young took his place as a pinch runner, and after advancing to third on a groundout, came home to tie the game on CJ Abrams‘s single. James Wood then drew a walk, advancing Abrams to second and bringing Garcia to the plate. Garcia grounded to first baseman Pete Alonso, but Alonso threw the ball over the head of the pitcher who was covering first, allowing Abrams to rush home and score the walk-off run on the error. (WPA +.294)
Clutch hit:
- Nathaniel Lowe (April 29, 7–6 loss to the Phillies in Philadelphia). When Lowe came to bat in the top of the ninth, the Nats were down to their final out, trailing 5–3 but with runners on second and third. With a 1–2 count, Lowe reached down to hit a sweeper below the zone and smacked it into the right-field stands, putting the Nats ahead 6–5 (WPA +.694). Unfortunately, you can see the section on “Worst meltdown” to read about how the game ended.
- The best clutch hit in a game the Nats actually won was also by Nathaniel Lowe (April 11, 7–4 win over the Marlins in Miami). Lowe was feeling under the weather and had been scratched from the starting lineup, but he told Davey Martinez that he was available as a pinch hitter if needed. In the top of the eighth, the Nats were trailing 4–2 but had the bases loaded with one out, and Martinez decided to take up Lowe on his offer. After a 10-pitch battle, Lowe lined one into the left field corner for a double, clearing the bases and giving the Nats a 5–4 lead. (WPA+.442)
Choke:
- James Wood (April 9, 6–5 loss to the Dodgers at home). Trailing the Dodgers 6 to 5 in the bottom of the ninth, the Nats were down to their final out but had runners at second and third. Wood grounded out to second to end the game. (WPA –.240).
Memorable fielding plays:
- CJ Abrams dove to catch the ball and made a strong throw to nab the runner.
- James Wood robbed Lourdes Gurriel Jr. of a home run.
- Luis Garcia Jr. dove and spun around to gun down Shohei Ohtani.
- Dylan Crews charged in and laid out to make the catch.
- Nasim Nuñez raced to the ball and made a diving, tumbling catch.
Triple play:
- Triple plays are rare, and on April 25, playing the Mets at home, the Nats turned one in the top of the fourth inning (their third in club history and their first at home). It certainly wasn’t a web gem. It appeared that the ball actually skipped into Nathaniel Lowe‘s glove and shouldn’t even have been called a catch. But the play wasn’t reviewable, so that was that. The Mets had runners on first and second with no outs. Jesse Winker hit a low line drive to Lowe, which (according to the umpire) he caught. Lowe then fired the ball to CJ Abrams, who touched second base as well as the runner who had advanced from first to complete a 3–6–6 triple play.
Since the trade deadline, the Nationals have gone all-in on giving their young players chances to play. Several players have made their debuts in July and August, and most of the lineup now consists of players ages 26 and younger, several of whom are rookies. The team is making mistakes and learning. They went 12–15 in August, ending the month with a 61–75 record and in fourth place in the NL East.
The Nats began the month of August at home, where they opened a 10-game homestand with a three-game series against the Brewers, who were leading the NL Central. The series began with a loss—the Nats’ fifth in a row—but it was followed by two victories, including a close 4–3 win in the finale. Next came the Giants, who were still in playoff contention. The Nats dropped three games out of four to the team from the city by the bay.
The homestand concluded with a three-game series against the Angels, and Washington fans welcomed back Anthony Rendon in his first return to DC to play the Nats since leaving as a free agent after the 2019 World Series. The Nats took two games of three, with both of the victories coming as walk-offs in the tenth inning. The second walk-off hit came from Jose Tena, who was making his debut with the Nats. The 23-year-old Dominican third baseman, acquired two weeks earlier in the Lane Thomas trade, had played 21 games for the Guardians in 2023 and 2024. The Nats went 5–5 in the homestand.
The Nats didn’t have to travel far for their next road trip, which consisted of two games in Baltimore against the AL East leading Orioles followed by four in Philadelphia against the NL East leading Phillies. In the first game, the Nats routed the AL East-leading Orioles 9 to 3, with the offense led by Andres Chaparro, who marked his major league debut by hitting three doubles, tying the record for most extra-base hits in a major league debut with seven other players. Chaparro is a 25-year-old Venezuelan first baseman/DH who was acquired from the Diamondbacks in the Dylan Floro trade. Also making his major league debut in that game was 26-year-old right-handed reliever Orlando Ribalta (born in Cuba but raised in Miami), who the Nats had selected in the 12th round of the 2019 draft. The next night the Nats lost their second game against the Orioles, splitting the series.
In their first game against the Phillies, the Nats were blown out 13 to 3. Their second game was much closer as the Nats rallied in the top of the ninth to tie the game, but they were walked off in the bottom of the inning. They also lost the third game but avoided a sweep by winning the final game. They went 2–4 on the road trip. In other roster moves, the Nats released 29-year-old DH Harold Ramirez, who had hit .243/.273/.365 in 25 games for the Nats, and Derek Law went on the injured list with a right elbow flexor strain.
Next came a three-game homestand against the Rockies followed by a three-game road trip to Atlanta to play the Braves. The Nats lost the opener to the Rockies but won the other two games. In the third game, Patrick Corbin was credited with his 100th career win. In Atlanta, the Nats lost their first two games before winning the finale. The loss in the first game came in the 10th inning by a score of 3 to 2 when CJ Abrams made a bad throw to first on what should have been a routine third out on a grounder to short. Alex Call went on the injured list after suffering a partial tear of the plantar fascia in his left foot.
Back in Washington, the Nationals first faced the Yankees, who had pulled ahead of the Orioles in the AL East race. The Nats called up 22-year-old right fielder Dylan Crews, who was the Nats’ first-round pick in the 2023 draft (No. 2 overall) and was rated as the No. 3 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline, to make his major league debut. Crews went 0 for 3 his first night but went 4 for 8 in the next two games, including a home run and a double. The Nats lost game one to the Yankees but won games two and three, largely shutting down the big bats of Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton.
The month concluded in the first two games of a three-game series in which the Nats were hosting the Cubs. The Nats lost both games by narrow margins in games in which they battled, but also sometimes played sloppily.
Record:
12–15 (.444)
Pythagorean Record:
13–14 (4.15 R/G – 4.44 RA/G)
August MVP:
- Luis Garcia, Jr (.341/.385/.534, 4 HR, 14 R, 12 RBI, 6 SB, 0 CS, 96 PA, 155 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR). Garcia wins this category for the second month in a row.
Pitcher of the month:
- DJ Herz (1-3, 3.72 RA/9, 6 GS, 29 IP, 10.9 K/9, .293 opp OBP, 0.7 RA9-WAR). He also wins this category for the second month in a row.
Relief pitcher of the month:
- Eduardo Salazar (0-1, 0.60 RA/9, 13 G, 15 IP, 7.8 K/9, .274 opp OBP, 6.89 RE24, 4 shutdowns, 0 meltdown, 0.6 RA9-WAR).
Worst month:
- Robert Garcia (0–2, 9.26 RA/9, 14 G, 11⅔ IP, 9.3 K/9, .333 opp OBP, –4.78 RE24, 0 shutdown, 5 meltdowns, –0.5 RA9-WAR).
Best start this month:
- Patrick Corbin (August 27, 4–2 win over the Yankees at home) pitched 6 scoreless innings giving up 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 72. Taking account of the bats in the opposing lineup—the Yankees lead the majors in wRC+, and Judge and Soto rank as numbers 1 and 2 in that category—I consider this to have been Corbin’s most impressive start since the 2019 World Series.
Worst start:
- Mitchell Parker (August 15, 13–3 loss to the Phillies in Philadelphia) gave up 9 runs on 10 hits and 2 walks in 3+ innings with 6 strikeouts for a game score of 7.
Tough losses:
- DJ Herz (August 14, 4–1 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore) pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 59.
- DJ Herz (August 20, 3–1 loss to the Rockies at home) pitched 5⅔ innings and gave up 3 runs (2 of which were earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 52.
Cheap wins:
- MacKenzie Gore (August 6, 11–5 win over the Giants at home) pitched 5 innings and gave up 5 runs (4 of which were earned) on 8 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 37. The Nats had scored 8 runs by the time he left the game.
Biggest shutdowns:
I’m calling this one a tie between two eerily similar scenarios:
- Kyle Finnegan (August 9, 3–2 win over the Angels in 10 innings at home). Trailing 2 to 1 going into the bottom of the eighth, the Nats tied the game with two one-out singles followed by a sacrifice fly. Finnegan then got the call in the top of the ninth to keep the game tied. He retired all three batters on a strikeout followed by two flyball outs. In the bottom of the ninth, the Nats drew a walk but failed to score, so Finnegan went back out to pitch the top of the tenth. He got two groundouts to third base, then walked the third batter he faced. Then Finnegan struck out the fourth Angels batter, Anthony Rendon, to retire the side without allowing either the automatic baserunner or the batter who had been walked to score (Win probability added/WPA +.450). The Nats scored in the bottom of the inning to walk off the Angels.
- Derek Law (August 10, 5–4 win over the Angels in 10 innings at home). Similar to the previous night’s game, the Nats scored 2 runs in the bottom of the seventh to tie the score at 4 runs apiece. In the top of the ninth, Law got the call to keep the game tied. He got a groundout, then gave up a one-out double. That was followed by two flyball outs, and he was out of the inning with no runs scored. In the bottom of the ninth, the Nats were set down in order, and Law went back out for the top of the tenth. He retired the first batter on a groundball back to the pitcher. He retired the second batter on a strikeout and the third on a popfly, and the automatic runner did not score (WPA +.450). The Nats scored in the bottom of the tenth to walk off the Angels again.
Worst meltdown:
- Kyle Finnegan (August 8, 9–5 loss to the Giants in 10 innings at home). Finnegan got the call in the top of the ninth with the score tied 2–2. He got the first batter on a groundout, then gave up a single and a walk. The runners pulled off a double steal, then Finnegan walked another batter, filling the bases. He got a strikeout for the second out and then faced Mark Canha. Canha shot the ball down the right field line, driving in two runners. Alex Call made a bad throw home and Finnegan wasn’t backing up the play, which allowed a third runner to score (WPA –.465). Robert Garcia was called in to get the third out. The Nats then rallied to score 3 runs in the bottom of the inning, sending the game to the tenth, but Garcia surrendered 4 runs in the top of the tenth for the loss.
Walk offs:
- Alex Call (August 9, 3–2 win over the Angels in 10 innings at home). With the score tied 2–2 entering the bottom of the tenth, Jacob Young was the automatic runner. Nasim Nuñez hit a sacrifice bunt, advancing Young to third. Call then hit a line drive that got by the second baseman to drive in Young and give the Nats the walk-off win. (WPA +.172)
- Jose Tena (August 10, 5–4 win over the Angels in 10 innings at home). It was Tena’s first game playing for the Nats. CJ Abrams went into the game as a pinch runner to replace the automatic runner and advanced to third on a wild pitch. Then Tena drove the next pitch to the bullpen wall in deep left-center, driving in Abrams for the walk-off win. (WPA +.067)
Clutch hits:
- Luis Garcia, Jr (August 8, 9–5 loss to the Giants in 10 innings at home). When Garcia came to bat with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, there were runners on first and second and the Nats were trailing 5–2. On a 1–2 pitch, Garcia launched a high fly ball into the left field corner, and it cleared the fence to tie the game (WPA +.493). The Nats, however, lost the game in the tenth inning.
- CJ Abrams (August 6, 11–5 win over the Giants at home). The Nats were trailing 4–2 and there were runners at first and second and one outs in the bottom of the second when Abrams came to bat. Abrams got on top of a fastball that was several inches above the top of the zone and clobbered it into the right field bleachers, giving the Nats a 5–4 lead. (WPA +.255)
Choke:
- Juan Yepez (August 11, 6–4 loss to the Angels at home). The Nats were trailing 6 to 4, but they had the bases loaded with one out when Yepez came to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Yepez grounded into a double play to end the game (WPA –.334).
Memorable fielding plays:
- Trey Lipscomb dives to his left and makes the throw to first for the out.
- Alex Call makes a catch and then throws out the runner at second for a double play.
- Jacob Young makes a fantastic, leaping catch at the wall.
- Joey Gallo, playing right field, guns down a runner trying to stretch a single.
- CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, Jr, and Joey Gallo team up to turn an outstanding double play.
- Dylan Crews guns down a runner trying to score.
I regret my tardiness with this month-in-review post.
Entering July, the Nationals were 8th in the race for the 3 wild card slots and 4 games behind in the race for the last one. During July, they fell further back and became sellers on July 14 when they traded away Hunter Harvey. By the July 30 trade deadline, Jesse Winker, Lane Thomas, and Dylan Floro had also departed. The Nats ended up going 10–16 in July, their worst monthly record so far this season, and ended the month with a 49–60 record, 16½ games behind in the NL East race and 9 games behind in the race for the last wild card slot. In other words, any lingering playoff hopes had died by the end of July.
What went wrong this month? Hitting was not the main problem–the Nats’ OPS was .720 in July, up from .668 in the first three months, and runs per game was up from 4.1 to 4.7. But while the hitters did well on average, there were many games where they struggled—the Nats were shut out five times in July, with the last shutout coming from a no-hitter dealt by Dylan Cease.
The Nats’ main problem was pitching. It began with the starting pitching, which had been great in May and June when the starters’ ERA had been 3.62 and they had averaged 16.4 outs per game. In July, the starters’ ERA was 6.23 and they averaged only 14.8 outs per game. That put pressure on the relief staff, who were responsible for getting an average of 11.8 outs per game (up from 10.0 in May and June). The relievers performance also suffered, and their ERA went up from 4.01 in May and June to 5.08 in July.
Despite the poor results, most of the games (outside of a handful of blowouts) were competitive and exciting baseball, with a number of come-from-behind victories and losses.
July began with a four-game series at home against the Mets. The first game featured the debut of James Wood, the highly rated 6’7″ 21-year-old left-handed outfielder who came to the Nats in the 2022 Juan Soto trade. During July, Wood impressed us with his hard contact and base path speed even as he worked to adapt to major league pitching and playing left field, where he had little experience.
The first two games against the Mets both went to extra innings. And both games ended in losses for the Nats with the bullpen collapsing in the top of the 10th inning of each game. They allowed a total of 11 10th-inning runs in the two games. In the third game, the Nats came back from a 5-run deficit to win the game with Wood driving in the go-ahead run. And in the final game, the Nats won 1–0 behind Jake Irvin‘s masterful 8-inning start.
As the Nats turned to their next series—four games against the Cardinals—Josiah Gray was placed on the 60-day injured list and would undergo Tommy John surgery on July 24. The Nats were also clearing out roster space by letting go of veterans who had not performed. Eddie Rosario was released (and then signed by the Braves) to make space for Wood. Joey Meneses was optioned to Rochester and replaced by Juan Yepez, a 26-year-old right-handed minor league free agent who had played parts of two seasons for the Cardinals. Nick Senzel was released and replaced by Trey Lipscomb.
The Cardinals series began with another extra-inning game, a 7–6 loss in 11 innings. The Nats came back the next day to win a 14–6 blowout but lost the next two games, including a shutout loss in the final game. The Nats lost the series 3 games to 1 and were 3–5 over the homestand.
A road trip followed, beginning with three games against the Mets in New York. The Nats lost all three and were shut out and blown out in a 7–0 loss in the final game. They did better in the next series against the Brewers in Milwaukee, winning the first two games, with the second game featuring a come-from-behind effort, before losing the third game. Eduardo Salazar, a 26-year-old right-handed reliever who had 9 games experience with the Reds and Dodgers and had been selected off waivers, made his Nats debut during the series. The Nats went 2–4 on the road trip and were ready for the All-Star break.
Before the Milwaukee series had ended, some big news arrived that Hunter Harvey had been traded to the Kansas City Royals. Because Harvey was under team control through 2025, Mike Rizzo was able to negotiate a good return, with the Nats receiving 22-year-old third base prospect Cayden Wallace, who would be ranked as the Nats’ # 7 prospect by MLB Pipeline, as well as the Royals’ competitive balance pick in the upcoming draft (the # 39 overall pick), with which the Nats selected catcher, Caleb Lomavita. That draft selection was made after the Nats had used their regular first round pick (# 10 overall) to select shortstop, Seaver King. Their second-round pick (# 49 overall) went to another shortstop, Luke Dickerson.
At the All-Star game, the Nats were represented by CJ Abrams and Kyle Finnegan (who was an injury replacement added to the team less than 24 hours before the start of the game). Abrams struck out in his only plate appearance, and Finnegan didn’t appear in the game, as the National League lost 5 to 3.
Returning from the All-Star break, the Nats opened their homestand with a three-game series against the Reds. They swept the series, with the team rallying late to win the second and third games despite their game-2 starter having been knocked out early. Jose A. Ferrer was reinstated from 60-day injured list, where he had been since March with a left lat strain. Next came a three-game series against the Padres, which went very badly. The Nats were shut out in the first game, lost the second in a 12–3 blowout, and then were no-hit by Dylan Cease in the final game. Their record for the homestand was 3–3.
The month concluded with a road trip, with three games each in St. Louis and Phoenix. They won the first two games against the Cardinals, with their second victory coming as a 14–3 blowout, before getting walked off in the final game. Against the Diamondbacks, they lost a heartbreaker in the first game, as they entered the bottom of the ninth with an 8–4 lead but surrendered 5 runs for another walk-off loss. The second game was a disaster, a 17–0 blowout loss that set several team records. And the Diamondbacks concluded a sweep by beating the Nats 5–4 in a game in which the Nats tried to come back but ultimately fell short. They ended the road trip with a 2–4 record and ended the month with a four-game losing streak.
The end of the month coincided with the trade deadline. Jesse Winker went to the Mets, with the Nats obtaining in return a 24-year-old right-handed pitching prospect, Tyler Stuart, who now ranks 16th among Nats prospects. Alex Call was called up to take Winker’s place in the outfield. Lane Thomas, who was also under control through the end of 2025, was traded to the Guardians for three prospects, featuring 19-year-old left-handed pitcher, Alex Clemmey, who was a second-round pick in 2023. Clemmey is now ranked sixth among Nats prospects. The Nats also received a 19-year-old shortstop, Rafael Ramirez, Jr., who now ranks 22nd. Dylan Floro was traded to the Diamondbacks (and literally just had to walk over to the other clubhouse before the second game of the Nats-D’backs series) for a Triple-A infielder. Some followers of the team were surprised that Kyle Finnegan was not traded, though he still has another season-and-a-half left before he reaches free agency.
Record:
10–16 (.385)
Pythagorean Record:
9–17 (4.65 R/G – 6.15 RA/G)
July MVP:
- Luis Garcia, Jr (.333/.375/.573, 4 HR, 10 R, 15 RBI, 4 SB, 1 CS, 80 PA, 159 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR).
Pitcher of the month:
- DJ Herz (0-2, 4.50 RA/9, 4 GS, 20 IP, 11.7 K/9, .284 opp OBP, 0.3 RA9-WAR). He pitched well enough in 3 of his 4 starts that the team should have won with ordinary offensive and bullpen support, which is better than I can say for any of the other starters this month.
Relief pitcher of the month:
- Robert Garcia (2-1, 4.26 RA/9, 14 G, 12⅔ IP, 10.7 K/9, .275 opp OBP, 1.40 RE24, 5 shutdowns, 2 meltdowns, 0.1 RA9-WAR).
Worst month:
- Jordan Weems (0–0, 8.38 RA/9, 7 G, 9⅔ IP, 8.4 K/9, .431 opp OBP, –6.74 RE24, 0 shutdown, 3 meltdowns). On July 26 his terrible month came to an end when he went on the injured list with shin splints.
Best start this month:
- Jake Irvin (July 4, 1–0 win over the Mets at home) gave up 1 hit and 1 walk in 8 scoreless innings while striking out 8 for a game score of 87. That’s the highest game score by a Nats pitcher since August 31, 2019, when Stephen Strasburg had a game score of 92 after striking out 14 while giving up 2 hits and no walks in 8 scoreless innings in a 7–0 victory over the Marlins.
Worst start:
- Patrick Corbin (July 30, 17–0 loss to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix) gave up 11 runs on 13 hits in 3 innings with 3 strikeouts for a game score of –6. (At least he didn’t walk anyone!) That game set several Nationals records, including the most runs surrendered by a Nats pitcher (surpassing seven pitchers who were tied at 10 runs apiece) and the largest run deficit (surpassing a 16-run deficit in 24–8 loss to the Padres on July 16, 2021). Corbin’s game score of –6 is also the worst ever recorded by a Nats pitcher, passing Jeremy Guthrie who had a game score of –4 on April 8, 2017, when he gave up 10 runs in a start that only lasted ⅔ inning in what would be the final game of his career.
Tough losses:
- Mitchell Parker (July 8, 6–0 loss to the Cardinals at home) pitched 7 innings, giving up 2 runs (1 of which was unearned) on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 6 for a game score of 64.
- DJ Herz (July 23, 4–0 loss to the Padres at home) pitched 5 innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 for a game score of 51.
- Patrick Corbin (July 25, 3–0 loss to the Padres at home) pitched 7 innings, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 61. Corbin had the misfortune to be facing Dylan Cease, who dealt the Nats a no hitter, only the second time the Nats have been no hit.
Cheap wins:
- None
Biggest shutdown:
- Kyle Finnegan (July 13, 6–5 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee). By the end of the first inning, this game looked like another disaster for the Nats. Starter Mitchell Parker wasn’t able to make it through the first inning, and the Nats trailed 5–0. But for the next seven innings the bullpen kept the Brewers from scoring and the Nats offense gradually came back, finally taking a 6–5 lead in the top of the ninth. Finnegan got the call in the bottom of the ninth and got a fly out, gave up a walk, got a weak ground out fielded by the catcher, Keibert Ruiz, and closed the game with a fly out that Lane Thomas was able to corral at the wall. (Win probability added/WPA +.205).
Worst meltdown:
- Kyle Finnegan (July 29, 9–8 loss to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix). This game was sort of the opposite of the last one. The Nats scored 5 in the first inning and through 6 innings led 8–2. The Diamondbacks tacked on a couple more runs in the 7th and 8th, but the Nats held an 8–4 lead when Finnegan got the call in the bottom of the ninth. Finnegan gave up a triple, a single, and a home run to the first three batters he faced, and suddenly the lead was down to 8–7. He got an out on a line drive hit to center field but then gave up a single and faced Corbin Carroll with one out and a runner on first. Carroll socked Finnegan’s 0–1 pitch over the right field fence for a walk-off home run. (WPA –.981).
Walk off:
- None
Clutch hits:
- CJ Abrams (July 13, 6–5 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee). When Abrams came to bat with one out in the top of the ninth, the Nats were trailing 5–4 and Luis Garcia, Jr was at second base. Abrams crushed a 99-mile-per-hour fastball into the second deck, giving the Nats the lead. (WPA +.590)
- James Wood (July 21, 5–2 win over the Reds at home). The game was tied 2–2 with runners at first and second and two outs in the bottom of the eighth when Wood came to bat. Facing a lefty who was brought in to get him out, Wood launched the first pitch into the left-field seats for his second major league home run, giving the Nats a 5–2 lead. (WPA +.377)
- Jacob Young (July 26, 10–8 win over the Cardinals in St. Louis). With two outs in the top of the tenth, the bases were loaded, but the score was still 6–6 when Young came to bat. He drove a 2–0 pitch over the glove of the right fielder for a bases-clearing triple, giving the Nats a 9–6 lead (WPA +.547). They would go on to win 10–8.
Choke:
- Juan Yepez and Nasim Nuñez (July 5, 7–6 loss to the Cardinals at home). Going into extra innings tied 5–5, the Cardinals had scored one in the top of the tenth and the Nats had drawn even in the bottom of the inning. There was one out with Nasim Nuñez at second and Luis Garcia, Jr at first when Yepez came to bat. Nuñez and Garcia executed a double steal, seeming to have removed the threat of a double play. Alas, when Yepez lined out to the second baseman, Nuñez had wandered too far from third and was doubled off (WPA –.346). The Nats would lose the game 7–6 in the eleventh inning.
Memorable fielding plays:
- Jacob Young makes a sliding catch.
- Jacob Young makes another diving catch.
- CJ Abrams makes a leaping, diving catch.
- Lane Thomas made a leaping catch at the wall to end the game.
It’s time for my annual selection of an NL all-star team. To ensure that the selections are based on merit, I use formulas based on WAR (wins above replacement) to make my selections.* For the second year in a row, none of the Nationals were among the 20 best position players or 12 best pitchers in the league. But as with the actual All Star Team, every team in the league is represented, so I have methods to make selections from the teams that otherwise wouldn’t be represented. This year, those teams were the Rockies, Pirates, and Nationals.
*My formulas use a player’s 2024 WAR, 2023 WAR and career WAR to come up with a point total that is used to determine the selections. The system is laid out in my 2022 post, though this year I’m making a minor modification to the weights used for combining the WAR statistics, which is described in a technical appendix at the end of this post.
How did I pick the Nats player for my team? I look at players in three buckets—position players, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers—then compare the top-ranked Nats player in each bucket to the last player selected in each bucket. For position players, the top-ranked Nat was CJ Abrams with 13.0 points. That represents 60% of the total points of the last position player selected to the all-star team on merit (Elly De La Cruz with 23.3 points). Despite the considerable progress that Abrams has made with the bat this year, he’s below average as a fielder and the NL is loaded with good shortstops. It’s hard to argue that he should jump past players like Willy Adames, Ha-Seong Kim, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson, all of whom rank ahead of Abrams in WAR-based points yet weren’t able to qualify for the team.
Turning to starting pitchers, the highest-ranking Nat was Trevor Williams with 14.8 points, which was 67% of the total for the last SP to make my team. (Williams, of course, is injured, but I’ve decided to ignore injury status in making my selections because it is hard to predict which players might be back on the active roster before the All Star Game.) Williams was having a really good season, but because my method also pays attention to his performance last season and over his career, he only ranks 17th in points among NL starting pitchers.
So, my selection to represent that Nats on my all-star team is going to be a relief pitcher. And… drum roll… the honor goes to Dylan Floro! Yes, Floro comes out ahead of the closer, Kyle Finnegan, and the setup man, Hunter Harvey. Floro leads the Nats’ relief staff in ERA with 2.15 (compared with 2.23 for Finnegan and 3.49 for Harvey). He’s also ahead of them in FIP (fielding independent pitching, based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed) with 2.47 compared to 2.98 for Harvey and 4.02 for Finnegan.) For the NL as a whole, Floro ranks 13th among relief pitchers in Fangraphs WAR (which is based on FIP) and 12th in RA9-WAR (which is based on runs allowed per nine innings). In overall points, Floro’s 7.9 is 73% of the total for the last relief pitcher to make my team on merit, which makes him my 2024 all-star team selection.
Here are my all-star team selections with their total points in parentheses. (Note that for outfielders, I treat corner outfielders (COF) as interchangeable, so I pool the left and right fielders and select the four with the most points. But I consider center field (CF) to be a skill set that must be represented on the team, so the two best center fielders are selected separately.)
Starters
C – William Contreras (23.3)
1B – Freddie Freeman (33.7)
2B – Ketel Marte (26.0)
3B – Austin Riley (19.5)
SS – Mookie Betts (35.2)
COF – Ronald Acuña Jr. (25.5)
COF – Fernando Tatis Jr. (22.3)
CF – Cody Bellinger (16.3)
DH – Shohei Ohtani (34.9)
SP – Zack Wheeler (25.9)
Reserves
C – Will Smith (21.7)
1B – Bryce Harper (30.4)
2B – Nico Hoerner (16.3)
3B – Alec Bohm (17.9)
SS – Francisco Lindor (29.5)
SS – Elly De La Cruz (23.3)
SS – Ezequiel Tovar (17.0) (*selected so the Rockies would be represented)
COF – Christian Yelich (21.7)
COF – Brandon Nimmo (21.6)
CF – Corbin Carroll (15.2)
DH – Marcell Ozuna (20.6)
SP – Ranger Suárez (25.9)
SP – Sonny Gray (24.6)
SP – Logan Webb (23.4)
SP – Chris Sale (23.0)
SP – Reynaldo López (22.1)
SP – Mitch Keller (17.3) (*selected so the Pirates would be represented)
RP – Bryan Hudson (13.8)
RP – Matt Strahm (11.1)
RP – Tanner Scott (10.9)
RP – Jeff Hoffman (10.8)
RP – Dylan Floro (7.8) (*selected so the Nationals would be represented)
Technical Appendix – changes to weights
If I had used the same formula as last year, I would have calculated the points for each player with this:
Points = 4 * 2024_WAR + 2 * MAX(2023_WAR, 2024_WAR) + Squareroot(Career_WAR)
The formula combines the players WAR for this year, last year, and his career to obtain a total. It is a weighted average, with a weight of 4 for this year, 2 for last year, and 1 for the square root of his career WAR.
I noticed last year, however, that the formula was giving a little bit too much weight to the previous year and career performance and a not quite enough to this year’s performance. I didn’t want to be like a lot of writers and just ignore previous performance (since singular focus on year-to-date statistics can lead to some pretty bad selections), but I did want to make sure the selected players were all making positive contributions in the current year. So I slightly increased the weight for this year and slightly lowered the weights for the previous performance, while still having the total weights add up to 7:
Written as an equation, this year’s formula is:
Points = 4.4 * 2024_WAR + 1.8 * MAX(2023_WAR, 2024_WAR) + 0.8 * Squareroot(Career_WAR)
That’s the formula I used this year and plan to use going forward.
The Nats opened May with a 14-15 record, in fourth place in the NL East, 5½ games behind the division-leading Braves. After going 12–15, they finished the month with a 26–30 record, in third place in the division, 13 games behind the division leading Phillies (who had gone 20–7 in May to supplant the Braves). The Nats’ pitching was surprisingly good, with a 3.45 team ERA during May (6th of 30 teams) and a 3.80 fielding independent pitching (FIP), which ranked 10th in MLB. Their offense, however, was weak. They ranked 27th in wRC+ with 84.
The Nats began the month in Texas, where they had already lost the first game of a three-game series against the defending World Series champions, the Rangers. They won game two 1–0, then were shutout 6–0 in the rubber game. The Nats returned from their road trip with a 5–2 record, having swept the Marlins in a four-game series to start the trip.
They began their next homestand playing the Blue Jays and took the series two games to one. The brief homestand concluded with a two-game “Battle of the Beltways” against the Orioles, who possessed the best record in the American League. The Nats won the first game 3–0, moving them above the .500 mark for the first time since July 1, 2021. They lost the second game 7–6 in a nail biter that saw the Nats rally to tie the game in the ninth inning and again in the 11th inning before finally falling to the O’s in the 12th.
The Nats opened their next road trip in Boston, where a 5–1 victory over the Red Sox again bumped them above .500. At that point, Fangraphs showed the Nats having a 1.7% chance of making it to the playoffs – a small but hopeful number for a team that had been given only a 0.2% chance at the beginning of the season. Alas, from there the trend was downhill. The Nats lost games two and three to the Red Sox. Moving on to Chicago, their first game against the White Sox was rained out, but they split a double header the next day before losing the third and final game. Their two losses in Chicago were both shutouts, with seven shutout innings in the first one coming at the hands of former Nat Erick Fedde, whose career had been rejuvenated by a year pitching in Korea. The road trip concluded in Philadelphia. The first two games were tight, with the Nats losing the first one 4–2 and the second 4–3 (in 10 innings). But the red-hot Phillies easily won the finale 11–5. In all, the Nats were 2–7 on the road trip and had dropped to 12½ games behind in the divisional race.
Back in Washington, the Nats faced the Twins. Their offense finally exploded in the first game, which they won 12–3, but they lost the second game just as decisively, 10–0. They also lost game three 3–2. They next faced the Mariners, who held first place in the AL West. The Nats took two games out of three, giving them a 3–3 record on their short homestand.
Going back on the road, the Nats played a four-game series in Atlanta. The Nats’ pitching did a great job holding the Atlanta offense at bay, limiting them to 9 runs over the series, which the Nats won three games to one. The month concluded with the Nats in Cleveland, where they lost the first game of a three-game set against the Guardians, who were in first place in the AL Central.
Four players who had been on the injured list at start of the month returned to the active roster during May. Robert Garcia and Victor Robles returned on May 7, Joey Gallo returned on May 17, and Lane Thomas returned on May 27. Robles did not impress on his return, hitting just .130/.222/.130 in 28 plate appearances during May, so when Thomas came off the injured list, Robles was designated for assignment to make room. On June 1, the Nats released Robles, ending a relationship that had begun almost 11 years earlier when a 16-year-old Robles had signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2013. In 8 seasons with the Nationals, Robles hit .236/.311/.356, with 31 home runs, 156 RBI, and an 80 wRC+ in 530 games. He never achieved the promise he had shown as a prospect, with the exception of the 2019 season when he played well as a 22-year-old rookie and helped the Nats win their championship.
Record:
12–15 (.444)
Pythagorean Record:
13–14 (3.89 R/G – 4.04 RA/G)
May MVP:
- Trevor Williams (3-0, 2.40 RA/9, 6 GS, 30 IP, 8.4 K/9, .268 opp OBP, 1.2 RA9-WAR)
Position player of the month:
- Eddie Rosario (.253/.319/.530, 6 HR, 17 R, 17 RBI, 6 SB, 0 CS, 92 PA, 139 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR). Rosario was named NL Player of the Week for the week of May 6 to 12, when he hit .467/.600/1.133 with 3 home runs, a double, 5 BB, 7 R, 5 RBI, and was 3 for 3 in SB in 5 games,
Relief pitcher of the month:
- Hunter Harvey (1-0, 1.84 RA/9, 14 G, 14⅔ IP, 9.2 K/9, .259 opp OBP, 5.98 RE24, 0.66 WPA, 8 shutdowns, 1 meltdown, 0.6 RA9-WAR)
Worst month:
- CJ Abrams (.205/.216/.304, 2 HR, 10 R, 9 RBI, 1 SB, 2 CS, 116 PA, 43 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR). Last month, Abrams was the most valuable position player and Rosario had the worst month. This month, they saw their roles switch.
Best start this month:
- Jake Irvin (May 28, 2–0 loss to the Braves in Atlanta) pitched 6 scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10 for a game score of 76. He left with the game still a scoreless tie, but Jacob Barnes gave up 2 runs for the loss.
Worst start:
- Patrick Corbin (May 21, 10–0 loss to the Twins at home) gave up 8 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings with 3 strikeouts for a game score of 22.
Tough losses:
- Jake Irvin (May 4, 6–3 loss to the Blue Jays at home) pitched 5 innings, giving up 4 unearned runs on 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4 for a game score of 52.
- MacKenzie Gore (May 12, 3–2 loss to the Red Sox in Boston) pitched 6 innings, giving up 3 runs (1 of them unearned) on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9 for a game score of 57.
- Jake Irvin (May 22, 3–2 loss to the Twins at home) pitched 6⅓ innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and no walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 61.
- Patrick Corbin (May 31, 7–1 loss to the Guardians in Cleveland) pitched 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 54. He left the game with the Nats trailing 2 to 1, only to watch the bullpen surrender 5 more runs.
Cheap wins:
None
Biggest shutdown:
- Kyle Finnegan (May 8, 7–6 loss in 12 innings to the Orioles at home). The Nats had tied the game at 3 to 3 in the bottom of the 9th when Finnegan got the call to pitch the top of the 10th. He got a strikeout, walked the second batter, then got a pop-up and a groundout to keep the game scoreless, never letting the automatic runner advance beyond second base. (Win probability added/WPA +.314). Unfortunately, the Nats were also held scoreless in the bottom of the 10th. In the 11th, each team scored two runs, and in the 12th the Orioles were able to score two while the Nats only scored one.
Worst meltdown:
- Kyle Finnegan (May 18, 4–3 loss in 10 innings to the Phillies in Philadelphia). Going into the ninth inning, the game was tied at two runs apiece, but the Nats scored a run in the top of the ninth to take a 3 to 2 lead. In the bottom of the inning, Finnegan got two groundouts, leaving him one out away from the save, but then Kody Clemens hit a home run to tie the game. The next Philly batter reached on an error, then Finnegan got another groundout to get out of the inning with the game tied. The Nats failed to score in the top of the 10th, and Finnegan went back to the mound in the bottom of the 10th to try to keep the game tied. Finnegan issued an intentional walk to Kyle Schwarber, then Realmuto hit a fly ball that advanced the automatic runner to third. Bryce Harper then hit a sacrifice fly for the Phillies to win the game. (WPA –.478).
Walk off:
None
Clutch hits:
- CJ Abrams (May 26, 9–5 loss to the Mariners at home). Abrams came to bat with two outs in the bottom of the seventh, runners on second and third, and the Nats trailing 4–2. Abrams launched one down the right field line and watched to see if it would go fair. It bounced off the foul pole to the fair side, and Abrams rounded the bases, with the Nats now holding a 5–4 lead. (WPA +.506) The lead did not hold up, though, as the bullpen surrendered a tying run in the top of the eighth and 4 more in the top of the ninth, for a 9–5 loss.
- Luis Garcia, Jr. (May 3, 9–3 win over the Blue Jays at home). Garcia came in as a pinch hitter with no outs in the bottom of the seventh, runners on first and second, and the Nats trailing 3–1. He knocked one over the center field fence, and the Nats took a 4–3 lead. (WPA +.392) They would keep adding on for a 9–3 victory.
Choke:
- Nick Senzel (May 8, 7–6 loss in 12 innings to the Orioles at home). Senzel came to bat with no outs in the bottom of the 12th with a runner at second and the Nats trailing 7–6. He struck out. (WPA –.165) After two more outs via fly balls, the Nats had lost, despite having rallied in both the ninth and the 11th innings to tie the game.
Memorable fielding plays:
- Jacob Young made a superb diving catch.
- Luis Garcia Jr. made a great sliding play on a ball hit up the middle.
- CJ Abrams ran a long way and dove to get the ball and throw out the runner.
- Lane Thomas made a beautiful sliding catch.
- Jacob Young gunned down a runner trying to score.
Nats Noodles 