The deadline for all-star voting is Thursday, and the teams will be announced soon. To figure out which Nationals deserve to be on the all-star team, each year I put together an NL all-star team. For the last two years, I’ve used a systematic methodology based on statistics.
I won’t go through all the details of the methodology here (you can read the other article if you’re interested), but the main idea is that I give quite a bit of weight to both this season and last season’s performance, plus a little bit of weight to career performance. I want to avoid selecting players who just hit a hot streak for half a season. My method does allow for a few exceptional players to make the team based on a single season of play (Joc Pederson makes my team), but generally I’m looking for those who’ve played very well for at least a year and a half.
Here’s my 2015 all-star team. For position players, I show their weighted runs created (wRC+) over the last season and a half in parentheses; for pitchers I show their ERA– and FIP–:
National League – Starters
C – Buster Posey – Giants (143)
1B – Paul Goldschmidt – Diamondbacks (171)
2B – Dee Gordon – Marlins (108)
3B – Todd Frazier – Reds (136)
SS – Jhonny Peralta – Cardinals (125)
LF – Giancarlo Stanton – Marlins (157) – on DL, replaced by:
LF – Joc Pederson – Dodgers (146)
CF – Andrew McCutchen – Pirates (160)
RF – Bryce Harper – Nationals (159)
DH –Anthony Rizzo – Cubs (159)
SP – Max Scherzer – Nationals (69; 69)
Reserves
C – Jonathan Lucroy – Brewers (118)
C – Derek Norris – Padres (114)
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – Dodgers (134)
2B – Joe Panik – Giants (125)
3B – Nolan Arenado – Rockies (121)
3B – Matt Carpenter – Cardinals (122)
SS – Troy Tulowitzki – Rockies (146)
SS – Brandon Crawford – Giants (112)
OF – A.J. Pollock – Diamondbacks (126)
OF – Jason Heyward – Cardinals (110)
OF – Justin Upton – Padres (133)
OF – Carlos Gomez – Brewers (125)
DH – Freddie Freeman – Braves (141)– on DL, replaced by:
DH – Joey Votto – Reds (139)
SP – Clayton Kershaw – Dodgers (63; 56)
SP – Zack Greinke – Dodgers (67; 80)
SP – Johnny Cueto – Reds (65; 87)
SP – Cole Hamels – Phillies (73; 85)
SP – Jacob deGrom – Mets (70; 71)
SP – Shelby Miller – Braves (86; 111)
RP – Aroldis Chapman – Reds (53; 34)
RP – Trevor Rosenthal – Cardinals (65; 76)
RP – Jonathan Papelbon – Phillies (54; 69)
RP – Kenley Jansen – Dodgers (67; 46)
RP – Francisco Rodriguez – Brewers (65; 100)
Shelby Miller and Jacob deGrom made my team because of the requirement that every team be represented; they’ve been good, but my statistical system would have picked A.J. Burnett and Jake Arrieta ahead of them.
So there are only two Nationals on my team—the best overall player (Bryce Harper) and the best pitcher (Max Scherzer). Several others came close—Jordan Zimmermann and Drew Storen (and Anthony Rendon if he hadn’t been on the disabled list), but Harper and Scherzer were the only Nats to make the cut this time.
Joe Ross pitched his third major league start, an 11-K, 1-run gem against the Pirates. His first three starts have been quite impressive. Among starting pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched, here are the leaders in strikeout-to-walk ratio:
| Name | Team | IP | K% | BB% | K/BB |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 20.1 | 28.8% | 2.5% | 11.50 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 93.1 | 30.9% | 3.8% | 8.07 |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 81.1 | 25.8% | 3.3% | 7.91 |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | 86.0 | 18.7% | 2.5% | 7.56 |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | 23.0 | 30.9% | 4.3% | 7.25 |
And here are the leaders in fielding-independent pitching (FIP):
| Name | Team | IP | ERA | xFIP | FIP |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 20.1 | 2.66 | 2.10 | 1.14 |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 25.0 | 1.44 | 2.92 | 2.03 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 93.1 | 1.93 | 2.76 | 2.04 |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 95.0 | 2.18 | 2.35 | 2.14 |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 88.2 | 2.74 | 2.42 | 2.23 |
Well, we all know we shouldn’t rely too much on statistics for pitchers who’ve only faced 80 major league batters (though pitcher strikeout rates do stabilize with pretty small samples). But going as much by what my eyes tell me as the statistics, I think there’s a good chance that Ross may prove to be a better pitcher than either Gio Gonzalez or Doug Fister over the remainder of this season. I think the team has its best chance of winning if they let him stay on the team, rather than sending him back to Harrisburg. Let him stay; if it turns out that these last three starts have been a fluke, we can always send him down later. But give him a chance to pitch for us now and prove the doubters wrong.
How would we use him? Although he could be sent to the bullpen, my own preference is to use him as a starter. While that might mean sending Fister to the bullpen, I think a better option would be to use him in a modified 6-man rotation.
How would that work? Assign Ross to pitch once a week—for example, he starts every Saturday. The other pitchers would pitch on their regular rotation, but they’d get an extra day’s rest when it’s Ross’s turn to pitch. Why do that rather than just plug him into a 5-man rotation? It comes down to work load and innings limits.
Ross has never pitched more than 122 innings or faced more than 524 batters in a season. Most teams don’t want to increase that work load more than about 30 innings (or 25%) in a season. He’s faced 286 batters so far this season. If we want to limit him to about 650 batters over the rest of the season, that would work out to about 15 more starts at about 24 batters per start. I proposed a similar once-a-week schedule for Stephen Strasburg the year of his shutdown; Tango Tiger proposed a similar schedule on his blog.
Maybe Ross will be great; maybe just good; or maybe he’ll need more time in the minors. But given the disappointing state of the Nationals rotation other than Max Scherzer, let’s give him a chance.
After 44 games played, the Nats are a little past the quarter season mark. Let’s take a look at their performance. My benchmark is what we would have expected from the team and from each player.
The team is in first place by 2-1/2 games with a 26-18 record, a .591 winning percentage, on pace for 96 wins. If you prefer Pythagorean winning percentage, their 212 runs scored and 187 runs allowed are consistent with a .562 winning percentage, or a 25-19 record so far. I think it’s fair to say that’s about how the team was expected to perform. Of course, it overlooks their horrendous 7-13 start, as well as their 19-5 record since April 28.
Their offense has been a little better than expected, with a .265/.336/.432 slash line and their .334 wOBA for their non-pitchers ranking 4th in MLB. But offsetting the good performance of their position player’s offense has been worse-than-expected defense, so I’d rate their position players performance overall as about the same as expected.
Of course, every group has individuals who surprise. On the upside, the really big surprise, of course, has been Bryce Harper. With his .326/.464/.729 slash line, he leads the majors in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and with an fWAR of 3.1, leads the majors in wins above replacement. While we all expected Bryce to play at an all-star level, for the early part of this season he’s made the leap to MVP-level performance. Furthermore, the leap in walks and improved patience and pitch recognition suggest that the improvement may be permanent. No, I’m not expecting a .729 slugging percentage for the season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end with 40+ home runs and an OBP above .400.
The other big positive surprise has been Danny Espinosa. With Anthony Rendon out due to injury, Espinosa has made up the difference with his unexpected .261/.359/.459 slash line and 1.0 fWAR. That was quite a step up from his .200/.255/.326 slash line over 2013–14. He’s also contributed with the glove.
Offsetting the positive surprises are the negative ones. The big one is Jayson Werth, whose .208/.294/.287 slash line and –0.6 fWAR is unprecedented in his career. Coming back from injury, it appears that he rushed back too soon, and over his first 19 games back (from April 13 to May 4) hit only .176/.247/.203. From May 8 to May 15, he hit a more respectable .296/.412/.519 over 34 plate appearances, before he went on the DL again after hurting his wrist.
We’ve already mentioned Anthony Rendon, who is a disappointment in the sense that we were expecting a lot from him and he hasn’t been able to play due to various injuries. The other player I’ll describe as a disappointment is Ian Desmond, whose .246/299/.392 slash line and 0.3 fWAR are worse than expected, and whose defensive miscues have also hurt the team.
Turning to pitching, I’ll mention that opinions on the team’s performance–especially that of the starting pitchers, is likely to vary depending on how much weight you give to fielding independent metrics such as FIP (or fWAR, which is based on FIP), and how much you give to traditional metrics such as ERA, RA/9, and rWAR or RA9-WAR, which are based on RA/9. According to FIP and fWAR, the Nationals starters are the best in baseball, but according to RA/9, their starters’ 4.86 ranks 25th among MLB rotations.
The one individual starter about whom there is no question is Max Scherzer. His 2.02 FIP is lowest among qualified major league pitchers, and his 1.67 ERA is fourth lowest. He’s started the season as a contender for the NL Cy Young Award.
Offsetting Scherzer’s strong performance have been major disappointments in the performance of Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister. Strasburg’s 6.50 ERA is second highest among qualified MLB pitchers, even though his 3.65 FIP is better than the league average of 3.90. Even his better-than-average FIP, however, is a disappointment compared to his career marks. Coming into the season, his career FIP had been 2.84 and his career ERA had been 3.02, while for 2014 his FIP had been 2.94 and his ERA had been 3.14. Fister’s season hasn’t been quite so extreme, but his 4.31 ERA and 4.69 FIP are significantly worse than his averages over the last three seasons, 3.22 for ERA and 3.51 for FIP.
In the bullpen, Drew Storen has had a surprisingly good performance, with 13 saves and only one blown save, a 0.98 ERA, and a 1.28 FIP. Furthermore, 7 of his saves have preserved one-run leads. The rest of the bullpen has been pretty much about what was expected, which was sort of an average major-league bullpen.
The Nats have been in the somewhat unusual situation where most of their negative surprises have been offset by positive ones. Some regression is expected, but it doesn’t fundamentally change the prospect that this looks like a really good team.
I know I’m late to this discussion. I’m in the camp that Bryce Harper, Matt Williams, and umpire Marvin Hudson all shared in the blame. Since I don’t know what Harper said to Hudson, I don’t know whether he deserved his ejection.
I did want to make one point about Hudson’s actions that I’m not sure I’ve seen in other commentary. I think that MLB ought to instruct umpires never to stop a game to talk to, or argue with a manager or coach in the dugout about what he’s saying. It’s ok to stop the game to toss the manager if he’s crossed the line, but if you’re just irritated with the chirping that’s coming from the dugout, wait until the end of the inning, then go over to the dugout and warn them, explain your call, or say whatever needs to be said. Forty thousand people have paid to attend the game, plus thousands more are watching on television. Nothing that’s being said in the dugout can’t wait until the inning break to be resolved.
To me, this seems like simple respect for the fans who are paying the bill. Furthermore, in a situation like Wednesday night’s game, waiting will give everyone a chance to cool off and hopefully avoid an unnecessary confrontation and ejection.
How about it?
Baseball’s big news this holiday Monday is that the Nats have signed free agent pitcher Max Scherzer to a contract reported to be roughly $210 million over 7 years.
What does it mean for the Nationals, this year and beyond? I feel like I’m at the end of the first act of a play, waiting to judge the play until I’ve seen the rest of it. The move could be a win-now move or a win-later move, depending on what happens next. Do the Nats sit tight with an overloaded pitching staff? Or do they try to deal one of their other starters, as they’ve been rumored to be looking to do all winter.
- Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs describes the Nats with Scherzer as a potential “super-team.” Pitchers with records similar to Scherzer’s during their age 27–29 seasons have gone on to average 22 wins above replacement during their age 30–36 seasons.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explains that the deferred money in Scherzer’s contract means that the $210 million obligation is costing the Nats only about $170 million in today’s dollars.
- Garrett Hooe of Federal Baseball breaks down Scherzer’s pitch selection and location.
- Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post sees the signing as a big improvement for the team.
- Rob Neyer of Fox Sports cautions that teams that have won 96 games have a strong tendency to regress, so we shouldn’t assume that the Nats will be better this year.
- Grant Brisbee of SB Nation looks for, and finds, cautionary tales—teams that appeared to be shoo-ins for pennants or World Series that went on to disappoint.
- Jonah Keri of Grantland looks at some of the potential ripple effects if, for example, they move Jordan Zimmermann or Doug Fister.
- One of the rumors that started floating shortly after the Scherzer signing was announced was that the Nats are now making Stephen Strasburg available. Jeff Sullivan looks at the enormous haul of prime prospects that a Strasburg trade might yield.
How does the Scherzer signing compare with a potential signing or extension of Zimmermann? My own view is that Scherzer is the better long-term risk. Yes, Scherzer is older and has pitched more innings, but Zimmermann has had Tommy John and lives more on control than on missing bats. Strikeouts and whiffs are fairly good predictors of a pitcher’s long-term prospects.
The other thing I think I’ve learned is that the Nats actually are willing to spend money to win. That’s assuming, of course, that they don’t dump the extra salary costs by trading off other assets. One of my big uncertainties about the team is how committed the ownership is to winning. This signing is a positive indicator—perhaps the best indicator we’ve seen since the Jayson Werth signing four years ago.
As the Nats mark their first decade in Washington, it’s appropriate to select an all-star team. We’ve already seen a few writers make their selections.
Of course, the selection of such a team is going to be largely determined by the rules that the writer sets. Here are the rules I’ve decided to go by:
- All performance (and value) while playing for the Washington Nationals counts. The rest of the player’s career doesn’t count. My metric is closer to cumulative value rather than peak value, and counts value at all positions played (not just at the position for which the player is selected).
- For the starting position players, a player must have played at least 100 games for the Nationals at the position. Also, the games played at that position must represent at least 35% of all games played for the Nationals. In other words, I’m trying to avoid slotting players at positions where they didn’t spend much time.
- The team composition should reflect a typical, standard roster—that is, in addition to 8 starting position players, I’ll have 5 starting pitchers, 7 relief pitchers, a backup catcher, and 4 other bench players. The bench must versatile enough to cover an injury at any position.
- I try, as best I can, to account for all aspects of performance, including batting, fielding, base running, etc. Length of service also counts. I pay especial attention to wins above replacement (WAR). However, I don’t go strictly by WAR – for example, Adam Dunn’s WAR is low partly because of low fielding scores when the Nats had him playing in the outfield—an obvious misuse of Dunn’s talents.
For each position, I’ll list the candidates (that is, the players with at least 100 games) and my selection.
- Catcher – Candidates: Brian Schneider (358 games), Wilson Ramos (311), Jesus Flores (263), Wil Nieves (183), Ivan Rodriguez (136), Kurt Suzuki (120). My selection is Wilson Ramos (2010–2014). His batting has been strong enough (.268, .317, .432, 105 wRC+, that is, “weighted runs created relative to league”) to more than make up for the difference with Schneider in service time. The knock against Ramos is health, but a strong bat from a defense-first position can make up for a lot of qualms about health.
- First base – Candidates: Adam LaRoche (481 games), Nick Johnson (407), Adam Dunn (220), Dmitri Young (154), Michael Morse (116). My selection is Nick Johnson (2005–2009). Again, the bat is able to overcome the effects of his injuries. Johnson’s (.286, .416, .471, 137 wRC+) statistical line is well above LaRoche’s (113 wRC+), and Johnson was probably the better defensive player too.
- Second base – Candidates: Danny Espinosa (441 games), Ronnie Belliard (194), Jose Vidro (186), Felipe Lopez (121), Anthony Rendon (110), Steve Lombardozzi (102). This is probably the toughest choice, but I’m going to go with Anthony Rendon (2013–14; .279, .343, .445, 119 wRC+) over Espinosa. Both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs suggest that Espinosa’s 2010–2012 were nearly as valuable as Rendon’s 2013–2014, and Rendon has played more games (and better) at third base than at second. But Espinosa’s last two seasons have had little, if any, value, and Rendon’s overall hitting has been more valuable than Espinosa’s defense and home runs.
- Third base – Candidates: Ryan Zimmerman (1,133 games), Rendon (149), Vinny Castilla (138). The selection is Ryan Zimmerman (2005–2014; .286, .352, .476, 120 wRC+). Well, that one was easy!
- Shortstop – Candidates: Ian Desmond (758 games), Cristian Guzman (459), Felipe Lopez (190). The selection is Ian Desmond (2009–2014; .270, .317, .431, 104 wRC+). Again, a pretty easy selection.
- Left field – Candidates: Josh Willingham (195 games), Bryce Harper (194), Willie Harris (177), Roger Bernadina (173), Alfonso Soriano (158), Ryan Church (144), Michael Morse (124). As you can see, this has been the Nats’ least settled position. My selection is Bryce Harper (2012–2014; .272, .351, .465, 125 wRC+). Harper benefits from my decision to include his value from other positions; if I were going just based on his time in left field, I would have gone with Soriano. But Harper has put together substantial value at a remarkably young age.
- Center field – Candidates: Denard Span (300 games), Nyjer Morgan (181), Rick Ankiel (167), Roger Bernadina (140), Lastings Milledge (139), Nook Logan (137), Ryan Church (112), Bryce Harper (108). My selection is Denard Span (2013–2014; .290, .341, .398; 107 wRC+). Ryan Church is another plausible choice, but I prefer Span’s glove to Church’s bat.
- Right field – Candidates: Jayson Werth (475 games), Austin Kearns (356), Jose Guillen (208), Elijah Dukes (134), Roger Bernadina (123), Michael Morse (111). My selection is Jayson Werth (2011–2014; .282, .375, .452, 131 wRC+).
- Starting pitchers – My selections are: (1) Jordan Zimmermann (2009–2014; 57–40, 3.24, 739 K), (2) Stephen Strasburg (2010–2014; 43–30, 3.02, 746 K), (3) Gio Gonzalez (2012–2014; 42–26, 3.25, 561 K), (4) John Lannan (2007–2012; 42–52, 4.01, 410 K), and (5) Livan Hernandez (2005–2006, 2009–2011; 44–47, 4.32, 476 K).
- Relief pitchers – My selections are: (1) Tyler Clippard (2008–2014; 414 games, 34 saves, 2.68), (2) Drew Storen (2010–2014; 297, 66, 2.94), (3) Chad Cordero (2005–2008; 224, 113, 2.78), (4) Jon Rauch (2005–2008; 236, 23, 3.40), (5) Craig Stammen (2009–2014, 224, 1, 3.94), (6) Sean Burnett (2009–2012; 245, 9, 2.81), and (7) Saul Rivera (2006–2009; 245, 4, 4.05).
- Backup catcher – Brian Schneider (2005–2007; .253, .325, .356, 79). He was an able defensive catcher and a fan favorite.
- Bench – My selections are: (1) Danny Espinosa (backup at 2B/SS, could cover 3B in a pinch, though it would make more sense to move Rendon to third and Espinosa to second) (2010–2014; .228/.299/.387; 87); (2) Ryan Church (OF; 2005–2007; .277, .354, .478, 118); (3) Alfonso Soriano (LF; 2006; .277, .351, .560, 129)—only one season in Washington, but it was a great one; (4) Adam Dunn (1B/PH; 2009–2010; .264, .378, .533, 139)—despite the poor defense and the ugly years after leaving Washington, we shouldn’t forget that he could really hit.
The outcome of this exercise is that the Nats’ all-stars look a lot like the team that’s been playing for Washington over the last three seasons. I guess that shouldn’t have been surprising, since looking at these names, it’s clear that the quality of the team’s lineup is much better now than it was during the team’s first six years in Washington. There are some names listed among “Candidates” that I’d really like to forget, but they are part of the team’s history too. I guess the other thing I learned is that the Nats have always been able to put together at least a semi-decent bullpen. Maybe that’s the easiest thing for a weak team to cobble together.
Let’s enjoy the current version of the Nats while they’re still together.
Nats Noodles 