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August 15, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

Nats’ 2015 season is slip slidin’ away

Over the last four weeks, Nats fans have watched the team’s season unravel. After losing the second game of a 4-game set against the Giants, our odds of reaching the playoffs, which recently had stood at 90% or higher, have plunged to 36% according to FanGraphs and 21% according to Baseball Prospectus. What happened? And more importantly, what can be done to turn things around?

We can break up the season into three periods. At the end of the first 45 games, May 25 (after the first game of a series in Wrigley against the Cubs) the Nats record stood at 27–18, a .600 winning percentage, or on pace for 97 wins. Although the Nats led the surprisingly strong Mets by only 2-1/2 games, the forecasts favored the Nats’ stronger talent to easily win the division—according to FanGraphs, their odds of winning the division stood at 95%, and of reaching the playoffs at 98%. The Nats had played well, scoring 4.8 runs per game while hitting .257/.324/.417, while allowing 4.2 runs per game, recording 8.1 strikeouts, 2.4 walks, and 0.6 home runs per 9 innings.

Looking deeper, there were some causes for concern. Several key players were out with injuries (Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Denard Span, Doug Fister) while others seemed to be struggling (Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Stephen Strasburg). The team appeared to be overly reliant on two big stars—Bryce Harper, who had emerged as perhaps the best player in the National League, and Max Scherzer, who was dominating National League hitters. Another pleasant surprise was the renewal of Danny Espinosa‘s ability to hit.

Our second period runs from May 26 through July 17, the first game after the All-Star Game (that bizarre game when the lights kept going out, which was won the next day on Matt den Dekker‘s 8th inning home run). During that period, the Nats went 22–21, or just a little over .500. Their hitters fell to 3.8 runs scored per game during that span, while the pitchers improved to 3.5 runs allowed per game.  The team, which was suffering from injuries, wasn’t playing great, but the Mets were also playing .500 ball so the Nats still had a 3-game lead. At that point, the Nats were 10 games over .500 and on pace to win 90 games.

During that period, Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Span went out on injuries, and Rendon came back and played 18 games, then went on the DL again. The team became increasingly reliant on Harper and Scherzer.

Over the four weeks from July 18 to August 14, the Nats have gone 9–18, and are now trailing the Mets by 4 games, only one game over .500. They’ve scored only 3.6 runs per game, while they’ve allowed an average of 4.3 runs per game. They are striking out more (23.7% compared to 20.7% through July 17) and are walking less (7.9% compared to 8.2%). Their batting average is down more than 30 points (.224 compared to .255) and slugging is down 45 points (.357 compared to .402).

It’s true that the Nats have faced some tough pitching. Kershaw, Greinke, Harvey, deGrom, Cole, and Fernandez would be on anyone’s list of the top 15 starters in the NL.* If starts were distributed randomly, the Nats would expect to face one of the top 15 starters in 20% of the games, whereas they’ve faced these pitchers 10 times in the last 27 games—and have lost 9 of  10! They’ve also lost games to pedestrian starters like Rubby de la Rosa and Ryan Vogelsong.

I think the key reason that I’m pessimistic is that the Nats seem to be straining. In the second half, their “whiff” (swinging strike) rate of 12.4% is the highest of all major league teams. In comparison, in the first half their 9.9% rate was only slightly higher than the major league average (9.7%). As the situation becomes ever more dire, they are chasing pitches and trying to hit home runs, leading instead to more strikeouts.

Mike Rizzo missed an opportunity at the trade deadline to try repair the team’s weak bench and provide the depth that’s needed. What can they still do? Here are my suggestions:

  • Move Werth into a partial platoon with Clint Robinson. Werth came back to soon and is still struggling to find his stroke. It isn’t clear yet whether he’ll find it this season, but for now, I’d have Robinson start in his place about half the games we play against right-handed pitchers, or 2 or 3 times a week. I’d also have him replace Zimmerman once a week against right handers to give Zim some rest.
  • I’d also try to start Espinosa at least three times a week, spelling Rendon, Desmond, and Yunel Escobar. Between his glove and his power, he’s a valuable player and should be used regularly, both to keep him sharp and to keep the others rested.
  • I’d try to pick up a bench player (preferably left handed) with good on-base skills. Having a bench with Espinosa, Tyler Moore, and Dan Uggla, all of whom are home run threats but severely deficient in getting on base, gives us an extremely unbalanced bench. Sometimes you need a pinch hiter who can lead off an inning and get something going. It would be even better if this bench player were a decent defensive outfielder. It’s hard to get a prime player at this time of year, but something may be available on a waiver deal. When such a player is found, I’d release Moore. (I’d be happy to release Uggla as well if we can find two decent bench players.)
  • Never again bat Michael A. Taylor in the lead-off spot. It reflects terribly on Matt Williams as a manager that he’s asked Taylor—who has a .286 on-base percentage and a 31% strikeout rate —26 times to start a game as the lead-off hitter. That’s really, really poor percentage baseball. Unfortunately, with Span gone, Rendon and Escobar are the only really viable options to lead off. (If Werth’s on-base skills come back, but not his power, he might also be considered as a lead-off option.)
  • Scherzer looks like he may have a sore arm. If nothing warrants putting him on the DL, I’d at least consider letting him rest for one turn through the rotation, skipping his next start that’s scheduled in Colorado. While Williams can be forgiven for letting him pitch complete games in his 1-hitter and no-hitter, he clearly overworked him in several subsequent games, and I’m wondering if Scherzer’s arm is now paying the price.
  • The bullpen is mediocre, and although Rizzo made a move at the trade deadline, it’s really a problem that was foreseeable and should have been repaired last winter. I’m doubtful that much can be done with a waivers deal, so my best advice is to ask Williams to focus on: a) making sure that the relief pitchers are used regularly, neither over-worked nor under-worked; b) concentrate on using the lefties, Matt Thornton and especially Felipe Rivero in favorable platoon matchups. Right-handed batters have an .851 OPS against Rivero, compared to .468 by lefties. Yet 57% of the batters that Rivero has faced have been right-handed. In too many games, I see Williams send out pitchers in seeming disregard for the platoon advantage.
  • I guess the last thing is somehow, let’s try to get the confidence and the swagger. This team is good—I think it’s still fundamentally a better team than the Mets—and it only takes a few victories to start turning things around.

*Update – I guess if I’m going to refer to the top 15 starters in the NL, I probably ought to give my list. Here it is, based both on this season’s statistics and on the projections shown at FanGraphs: 1) Clayton Kershaw, 2) Zack Greinke, 3) Jose Fernandez, 4) Jacob deGrom, 5) Max Scherzer, 6) Jake Arrieta, 7) Jaime Garcia, 8) Gerrit Cole, 9) Jon Lester, 10) Matt Harvey, 11) Madison Bumgarner (would rank higher if we included his hitting), 12) Shelby Miller, 13) Noah Syndergaard, 14) Tyson Ross, and 15) Stephen Strasburg (yes, I still rank him ahead of Zimmermann!).

In giving the statistics above, I debated whether to include Syndergaard, who—as you see—makes my own top 15, but the way I worded it was they’d be on “anyone’s list,” so I decided to leave Sydergaard off. Frankly, things get really fuzzy after # 11, so it isn’t clear that number 12 through 15 are any better than pitchers ranked 16 through 25. To fill things out, here are the near misses for my top 15 list: 16) Lance Lynn, 17) Michael Wacha, 18) Mike Bolsinger, 19) Francisco Liriano, 20) Carlos Martinez, 21) Jordan Zimmermann, 22) Gio Gonzalez, 23) John Lackey, 24) Taylor Jungmann, 25) Jason Hammel.

Filed under Management and strategy, Team status
August 10, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

Memo for Matt Williams: Following up on overuse of setup man

August 9, 2015

Memorandum for: Matt Williams

Subject: Following up on overuse of setup man

My last memo pointed out that your use of Drew Storen four times in a five-day interval may have contributed to the lack of command that resulted in a game-losing grand slam home run given up to Carlos Gonzalez.

Two days later, Storen was again called on to pitch in the 8th inning, this time in a tie game, and gave up the game-losing runs. If four appearances in five days was excessive, then five appearances in seven days also seems excessive, especially when he had been called on to face 7 batters and throw 23 pitches in his last appearance. Today, again, he exhibited poor command, hitting a batter. I note that there were at least a couple of well rested pitchers available who haven’t been used for several days.

During and after the Mets series, you were severely criticized for failing to use Storen and Jonathan Papelbon when the game was tied. While this criticism was correct, it should also be emphasized that attempting to use these two pitchers in the late innings of every game that is tied or has up to a 3-run lead in the late innings will lead to overuse. It is therefore essential that the first priority should be not overusing or underusing any of your pitchers; the goal of using your best pitchers in high leverage situations has to be subsidiary to this priority.

I’ll also note that if you had refrained from using Storen in Friday’s game, which was not a high leverage situation, he would have been well rested for today’s game, which was indeed a very high leverage situation.

Filed under Management and strategy, Pitching
August 7, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

Memo for Matt Williams – Overuse of setup man

August 7, 2015

Memorandum for: Matt Williams

Subject: Overuse of setup man

Tonight the Nats gave up a 4 to 1 lead in the 8th inning when Drew Storen allowed a one-out walk, then a pair of two-out singles followed by a grand slam hit by Carlos Gonzalez.

Storen was having obvious command problems all inning. The reason for the command problems also seems fairly obvious—he’s had to pitch on 3 of the last 4 days (the 6th, 4th, and 3rd).

Before the 8th inning, both Storen and Tanner Roark were warming up. Bob & FP informed us that Storen would pitch if the lead stayed at 3 runs, whereas Roark would pitch if the Nats scored an additional run. Roark had pitched on 2 of the last 4 days (the 5th and and the 3rd) and had not pitched yesterday. Although a 3-run lead is a save situation and would make Storen eligible to earn a hold, it is not a high leverage situation. It doesn’t make sense to overuse one of your two best relievers just so he can earn a hold.

I recommend that you start worrying more about the potential overuse of your pitchers and less about whether an arbitrary statistical threshold designates this as an inning for the setup man.

 

Filed under Management and strategy, Pitching
4
August 5, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

A memo for Matt Williams

August 5, 2015

Memorandum for: Matt Williams

Subject: Letting the pitcher bat in close games

No, I’m not going to blame you for tonight’s loss. The pitchers have to pitch and the hitters have to hit.

But there is one managerial mistake that I’m not going to let slip by. It’s the middle innings, a close game, and the starters’ pitch count is starting to get up there. He’s due to bat and are wondering whether you should you lift him for a pinch hitter.

Simply ask yourself whether, in the next inning, the pitcher were to allow the leadoff hitter to get aboard, you’re going to lift him for a reliever? If the answer is yes, please… PLEASE send in the pinch hitter now. It’s just a really poor percentage move not to use your pinch hitter in this situation.

You’re not the only manager to make this mistake, but in that situation the value of a pinch hitter is just much greater than the value of trying to stretch one more inning from your starter.

Filed under Management and strategy
2
August 1, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

Nats’ July in review: They’re beatable

July began with the Nats 3.5 games ahead in the NL East race with a 43–34 record. They also had lost Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman to the disabled list. After exiting early from a July 4 start, Stephen Strasburg joined them on the DL, as did Denard Span a couple of days later. With a roster that sometimes seemed more like a spring training squad than the regular team, the Nats went 11–13, ending the month with a 54–47 record and only a 2 game lead over the Mets. According to FanGraphs, the Nats’ odds of winning the division fell from 92.3% at the end of June to 83.1% at the end of July.

The month began with the Nats playing the last two games of a series against the Braves in Atlanta, having won the opener. They lost both games, with Scherzer pitching a complete game in the finale, but losing 2–1 in the 9th inning on an infield single, a bunt, and a chopper down the third field line that was ruled fair.

Returning home, they faced the Giants over the Independence Day weekend. They won all three games behind fine pitching, but Strasburg had to leave the second game during the 4th inning and was soon on the DL with a left oblique strain. Tanner Roark went 4-1/3 innings in relief, as the Nats got to Bumgarner and won 9 to 3.  Next, the Nats hosted the Reds and lost two games, with the third game rained out.

The Nats’ final series before the all-star break was against the Orioles in Baltimore. After losing the first game, they beat the O’s 7 to 4, then Scherzer—giving up the opportunity to start the All-Star Game by pitching the Sunday before the break—went 8-2/3 innings to get the 3 to 2 win to take the series. The Nats were represented on the NL All-Star Team by Bryce Harper, who started, and by Scherzer, who didn’t appear.

After the break, the Nats opened a home stand against the Dodgers. They won the first game, a bizarre two-day affair that couldn’t be completed on Friday night because of repeated failures of the lighting system. In the next two games, though, their hitters were unable to master Kershaw and Greinke, losing both games. They next played three games against the division rival Mets and won the first and third games, coming from behind in the finale to take the lead in the 8th inning.

Next came a road trip that began in Pittsburgh against the Pirates, where they lost three of four games at PNC.  The good news was that Rendon, returning from the DL, appeared in the last two games of the series. For the next series against the Marlins in Miami, Werth and Zimmerman also rejoined the team, and the Nats finally started to look like the team they had been planning to field this season. Also, before the trade deadline they picked up Jonathan Papelbon from the Phillies, who replaced Drew Storen as the closer. After losing the first game to the Marlins, the Nats beat them in the last two. The month ended in New York, where the Nats played the first game of a three-game set against the Mets. Facing Matt Harvey, they took a 1 to 1 tie into the 12th inning before losing on a walk-off homer.

The weak month reflected the team’s unusually anemic offense. With a .214/.284/.344 batting line this month, they ranked last in the majors in average, 29th in OBP, 28th in slugging, and 29th in weighted runs created (wRC+) at 74. Among players with at least 20 plate appearances, only Harper (wRC+ of 176) and Clint Robinson (wRC+ of 111) were above the league average. Of 12 players with at least 20 plate appearances, 6 had OBP below .260.

The starters ranked 8th in the NL in ERA (3.44), though their fielding-independent pitching, or FIP (3.59) ranked 5th. The relievers, who had struggled all season, were actually an area of strength this month. Their RE24 of 8.67 ranked 3rd in the NL, and they recorded 20 shutdowns versus 8 meltdowns. The relief staff’s FIP of 2.97 ranked 6th.

Record:

11–13 (.458)

Pythagorean Record:

12–12 (3.25 R/G – 3.33 RA/G)

July MVP:

Bryce Harper (.300/.440/.575, 24 G, 5 HR, 15 R, 10 RBI, 1.2 fWAR—also, 1 ejection, his 3rd this season). So far he’s won all four monthly MVP awards.

Most valuable starting pitcher:

Gio Gonzalez (3–0, 2.51 RA/9, 5 G, 28-2/3 IP, 8.2 K/9, .305 opp OBP, 0.9 RA9-WAR).

Most valuable relief pitcher:

Drew Storen (0–0, 0.00 RA/9, 9 G, 8-1/3 IP, 13.0 K/9, .219 opp OBP, 3.61 RE24, 0.6 RA9-WAR). His good work was rewarded with a demotion from closer to set-up man with the acquisition of Papelbon.

Worst month:

Wilson Ramos (.149/.171/.239, 70 PA, –0.5 fWAR). The runner-up is Dan Uggla (.074/.194/.074, 31 PA, –0.4 fWAR).

Best start this month:

Max Scherzer (July 12, 3–2 win over the Orioles in Baltimore) gave up 2 runs on 4 hits with no walks and 7 strikeouts in 8-2/3 innings. His game score was 75.

Worst start:

Doug Fister (July 18, 4–2 loss to the Dodgers at home) gave up 4 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings, with 1 strikeout. His game score was 32.

Tough losses:

  • Max Scherzer (July 2, 2–1 loss to the Braves in Atlanta) gave up 2 runs on 5 hits with no walks with 9 strikeouts in an 8-1/3 inning complete game (game score 74).
  • Max Scherzer (July 19, 5–0 loss to the Dodgers at home) gave up 1 run on 7 hits and 1 walk with 8 strikeouts in 6 innings (game score 61).
  • Joe Ross (July 21, 7–2 loss to the Mets at home) gave up 3 runs (2 earned) on 4 hits and no walks with 4 strikeouts in 6-1/3 innings (game score 59).
  • Joe Ross (July 26, 3–1 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh) gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk with 7 strikeouts in 6 innings (game score 56).

Cheap win: 

  • Jordan Zimmermann (July 11, 7–4 win over the Orioles in Baltimore) gave up 4 runs on 9 hits (though no walks) in 5 innings with 4 strikeouts (game score 37).

Best shutdown: 

Aaron Barrett (July 31, 2–1 loss to the Mets in New York). He entered in the bottom of the 8th of a 1–1 tie and pitched two innings, allowing 1 hit and striking out 2 (win probability added .207). The Nats lost in the 12th when Felipe Rivero, starting his third inning of work, gave up a home run to Wilmer Flores.

Worst meltdown:

Tanner Roark (July 10, 3–2 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore). He came in to pitch the bottom of the 9th of a game that was tied 2–2. After striking out the first two batters, Jonathan Schoop hit a walk-off home run. (WPA –.377)

Clutch hit:

Matt den Dekker (July 17/18—the game that had to be finished the next day because of problems with the light— 5–3 win over the Dodgers at home). In the bottom of the 8th, with the game tied 3–3, two outs, and Michael A. Taylor on first base, den Dekker entered as a pinch hitter and hit his first home run at home as a National, putting the Nats ahead 5 to 3. Storen shut down the Dodgers in the 9th to get the save. (WPA .392)

Choke:

Wilson Ramos (July 26, 3–1 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh). In the top of the seventh, the Nats, who were trailing 3 to 1, finally looked like they might be able to get to Gerrit Cole when Robinson doubled with one out, and Ian Desmond followed with a single to place runners at first and third with one out. Ramos then grounded into a double play to end the inning. (WPA –.163)

Filed under Month in review
July 1, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

Nats’ June in review: Not the way we planned it for sure

June began with the Nats sitting six games over .500, in first place, a half game ahead of the Mets. Although May had been a very successful month, it had ended on on a sour note with a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds. The Nats battled injuries all month in June, at times fielding what seemed like a spring training roster, as they continued to slide during the first half of the month. In the month’s last half, the Nats turned things around behind resurgent starting pitching and finished 15–12 for the full month,with an overall 43–34 record, 3.5 games ahead in the NL East race. Their odds of winning the division, according to FanGraphs, stood at 92.3% at the end of the month, up from 88.2% at the end of May.

The Nats month began at home facing the Blue Jays. They lost the series 2 games to 1, scoring only 5 runs. The next visitors were the Cubs, and Anthony Rendon rejoined the team, coming off the disabled list for the first time this season. The Cubs took the series 3 games to 1, as the pitchers continued to struggle, and the Nats slipped into second place.

Their next road trip began with a 2-game series in New York against the Yankees, which the Nats were able to split with an 11-inning, come-from-behind win in the second game.  Ryan Zimmerman, who had been slumping as he battled with plantar fasciitis, was sent to the DL, as was relief pitcher Aaron Barrett. A 4-game series against the Brewers followed, which the Nats were able to split. In the final game of the series, Max Scherzer took a perfect game into the 7th inning and finished with a 1-hit, 16-strikeout shutout of the Brewers. To top it off, the Nats also regained first place from the Mets.

The road trip ended with a two-game set against the Rays. After losing the first, they clobbered the Rays 16 to 4 in the second game, which ended with two Rays position players pitching an inning each, with each of them giving up a home run to Wilson Ramos.

The Rays then came to Washington to kick off the next home stand and swept the two game set, with Doug Fister returning to the rotation from the DL. Next, the Nats hosted the Pirates. In the opener, rookie Joe Ross, who had been called up to start while Stephen Strasburg was on the disabled list, pitched excellently, striking out 11 and giving up only 1 run in 7-1/3 innings, as the Nats won 4 to 1. That run would be the last given up by a Nats starter for their next 48 innings, as the rotation dominated opposing batters.

In the second game against the Pirates, Scherzer pitched his second consecutive gem—this time a no hitter that was one strike away from a perfect game. With two outs in the ninth inning, Pirate pinch hitter Jose Tabata leaned into an inside pitch and was awarded first base on a hit-by-pitch. The series concluded with a sweep, as the Nats scored nine runs in the first inning off Charlie Morton.

The home stand concluded against the Braves, with Strasburg rejoining the rotation from the DL. The Nats swept the three-game series, with the Braves picking up only two runs, both given up by Nats relievers. The series concluded, however, with Rendon going back on the DL with a quad strain; Bryce Harper and Yunel Escobar also each suffered minor injuries that kept them out of the lineup for a day or two.

The month ended with another road trip. The Nats took two of three against the Phillies. In the series opener, Scherzer faced expectations for another dominant performance, including the hope that he might tie Vander Meer’s record of two consecutive no hitters. Although he was able to retire the first 16 batters he faced, he ultimately gave up two runs, ending the staff’s scoreless streak, and had to settle for a 5 to 2 win. The month ended with the Nats in Atlanta, where the won the opening game of a series against the Braves behind a dominant pitching performance by Jordan Zimmermann.

For June, the Nats batters were just average. Their .271/.325/.403 batting line resulted in a weighted runs created (wRC+) index of 100, or MLB average, though it ranked 4th in the National League. Their defense, as rated by FanGraphs, ranked 11th in the NL.

The starters ranked 4th in the NL in ERA (3.63), though their fielding-independent pitching (FIP) ranked 2nd at 2.84, barely behind the Cardinals. Their relievers, however, were only average, with an RE24 of 1.34, which ranked 7th in the NL. The relief staff’s FIP (3.27) ranked 6th. Although the relief staff managed to avoid many high-leverage innings in the last half of the month, their weaknesses were apparent in the first half of the month as they experienced a number of meltdowns.

Record:

15–12 (.556)

Pythagorean Record:

16–11 (4.22 R/G – 3.56 RA/G)

June MVP:

Bryce Harper (.370/.452/.691, 22 G, 6 HR, 11 R, 15 RBI, 1.5 fWAR). He’s won this award all three months so far this season.

Most valuable starting pitcher:

Max Scherzer (3–2, 2.33 RA/9, 5 G, 38-2/3 IP, 10.5 K/9, .175 opp OBP, 1.4 RA9-WAR). Again, a three-time consecutive award winner. His consecutive gems—the one-hitter against the Brewers and the no-hitter against the Pirates—were regarded as among the most dominant consecutive games pitched in baseball history.

Most valuable relief pitcher:

Casey Janssen (0–0, 0.00 RA/9, 10 G, 9-1/3 IP, 3.9 K/9, .229 opp OBP, 4.35 RE24, 0.4 RA9-WAR). I have to admit I haven’t been a fan of Janssen and was a bit surprised by these numbers, but I really can’t poke any holes in his his performance this month.

Worst month:

Ian Desmond (.161/.194/.269, 25 G, –0.6 fWAR).

Best start this month:

Max Scherzer – he had two of the best starts in Nationals history, so I’m going to list both of them:

  • June 14, 4–0 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee, gave up 1 hit and 1 walk in a 9-inning complete game shutout, striking out 16, for a game score of 100.
  • June 20, 6–0 win over the Pirates at home, a no hitter with one hit batter and 10 strikeouts, for a game score of 97.

Worst start:

Tanner Roark (June 28, 8–5 loss to the Phillies in Philadelphia) gave up 8 runs on 12 hits and 1 walk in 3-1/3 innings, while not getting any strikeouts. His game score was 3.

Tough losses:

  • Gio Gonzalez (June 4, 2–1 loss to the Cubs at home) gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks in 6 innings with 6 strikeouts (game score 57).
  • Jordan Zimmermann (June 17, 5–0 loss to the Rays at home) gave up 3 runs on 8 hits and 1 walk in 7 innings with 8 strikeouts (game score 56).

Cheap win: 

  • Tanner Roark (June 5, 7–5 win over the Cubs at home) gave up 4 runs on 6 hits (though no walks) in 5-2/3 innings with 6 strikeouts (game score 47).

Best shutdown: 

Blake Treinen (June 10, 5–4 win over the Yankees in New York). He pitched the scoreless 9th and 10th innings of a game that was tied 4–4, allowing only 1 hit and striking out 3 (win probability added .248). The Nats scored in the top of the 11th, and Drew Storen pitched one more scoreless inning for the save.

Worst meltdown:

Aaron Barrett (June 10—the same game— 5–4 win over the Yankees in New York). Barrett entered in the 7th with the game tied 2–2, with two outs and a runner on second. He game up an RBI double, a hit-by-pitch, and an RBI single before getting the final out, and left the game with the Nats trailing 4–2. (WPA –.319)

Clutch hit:

Denard Span (June 10—yes, the same game!— 5–4 win over the Yankees in New York). In the top of the 11th, with the game tied 4–4, two outs, and Tyler Moore on third base, Span singled and drove in the go-ahead run. (WPA .347)

Choke:

Clint Robinson (June 4, 2–1 loss to the Cubs at home). In the bottom of the ninth with two outs, the Nats trailing 2 to 1, Anthony Rendon at bat, and Robinson at first base and Michael A. Taylor at second, Robinson was picked off first base by Cubs catcher David Ross, ending the game. (WPA –.159) The last time a game had ended with a catcher-to-first base pick off was in 2009 to the Nats’ Nyjer Morgan.

Filed under Month in review
June 28, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

Two Nats starters on my 2015 NL All-Star team

The deadline for all-star voting is Thursday, and the teams will be announced soon. To figure out which Nationals deserve to be on the all-star team, each year I put together an NL all-star team. For the last two years, I’ve used a systematic methodology based on statistics.

I won’t go through all the details of the methodology here (you can read the other article if you’re interested), but the main idea is that I give quite a bit of weight to both this season and last season’s performance, plus a little bit of weight to career performance. I want to avoid selecting players who just hit a hot streak for half a season. My method does allow for a few exceptional players to make the team based on a single season of play (Joc Pederson makes my team), but generally I’m looking for those who’ve played very well for at least a year and a half.

Here’s my 2015 all-star team. For position players, I show their weighted runs created (wRC+) over the last season and a half in parentheses; for pitchers I show their ERA– and FIP–:

National League – Starters

C – Buster Posey – Giants (143)

1B – Paul Goldschmidt – Diamondbacks (171)

2B – Dee Gordon – Marlins (108)

3B – Todd Frazier – Reds (136)

SS – Jhonny Peralta – Cardinals (125)

LF – Giancarlo Stanton – Marlins (157) – on DL, replaced by:

LF – Joc Pederson – Dodgers (146)

CF – Andrew McCutchen – Pirates (160)

RF – Bryce Harper – Nationals (159)

DH –Anthony Rizzo – Cubs (159)

SP – Max Scherzer – Nationals (69; 69)

Reserves

C – Jonathan Lucroy – Brewers (118)

C – Derek Norris – Padres (114)

1B – Adrian Gonzalez – Dodgers (134)

2B – Joe Panik – Giants (125)

3B – Nolan Arenado – Rockies (121)

3B – Matt Carpenter – Cardinals (122)

SS – Troy Tulowitzki – Rockies (146)

SS – Brandon Crawford – Giants (112)

OF – A.J. Pollock – Diamondbacks (126)

OF – Jason Heyward – Cardinals (110)

OF – Justin Upton – Padres (133)

OF – Carlos Gomez – Brewers (125)

DH – Freddie Freeman – Braves (141)– on DL, replaced by:

DH – Joey Votto – Reds (139)

SP – Clayton Kershaw – Dodgers (63; 56)

SP – Zack Greinke – Dodgers (67; 80)

SP – Johnny Cueto – Reds (65; 87)

SP – Cole Hamels – Phillies (73; 85)

SP – Jacob deGrom – Mets (70; 71)

SP – Shelby Miller – Braves (86; 111)

RP – Aroldis Chapman – Reds (53; 34)

RP – Trevor Rosenthal – Cardinals (65; 76)

RP – Jonathan Papelbon – Phillies (54; 69)

RP – Kenley Jansen – Dodgers (67; 46)

RP – Francisco Rodriguez – Brewers (65; 100)

Shelby Miller and Jacob deGrom made my team because of the requirement that every team be represented; they’ve been good, but my statistical system would have picked A.J. Burnett and Jake Arrieta ahead of them.

So there are only two Nationals on my team—the best overall player (Bryce Harper) and the best pitcher (Max Scherzer). Several others came close—Jordan Zimmermann and Drew Storen (and Anthony Rendon if he hadn’t been on the disabled list), but Harper and Scherzer were the only Nats to make the cut this time.

Filed under All-Star game
June 20, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

Let’s keep Ross up for a while

Joe Ross pitched his third major league start, an 11-K, 1-run gem against the Pirates. His first three starts have been quite impressive. Among starting pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched, here are the leaders in strikeout-to-walk ratio:

Name Team IP K% BB% K/BB
Joe Ross Nationals 20.1 28.8% 2.5% 11.50
Max Scherzer Nationals 93.1 30.9% 3.8% 8.07
Michael Pineda Yankees 81.1 25.8% 3.3% 7.91
Bartolo Colon Mets 86.0 18.7% 2.5% 7.56
Brandon McCarthy Dodgers 23.0 30.9% 4.3% 7.25

 

And here are the leaders in fielding-independent pitching (FIP):

Name Team IP ERA xFIP FIP
Joe Ross Nationals 20.1 2.66 2.10 1.14
Adam Wainwright Cardinals 25.0 1.44 2.92 2.03
Max Scherzer Nationals 93.1 1.93 2.76 2.04
Chris Archer Rays 95.0 2.18 2.35 2.14
Chris Sale White Sox 88.2 2.74 2.42 2.23

 

Well, we all know we shouldn’t rely too much on statistics for pitchers who’ve only faced 80 major league batters (though pitcher strikeout rates do stabilize with pretty small samples). But going as much by what my eyes tell me as the statistics, I think there’s a good chance that Ross may prove to be a better pitcher than either Gio Gonzalez or Doug Fister over the remainder of this season. I think the team has its best chance of winning if they let him stay on the team, rather than sending him back to Harrisburg. Let him stay; if it turns out that these last three starts have been a fluke, we can always send him down later. But give him a chance to pitch for us now and prove the doubters wrong.

How would we use him? Although he could be sent to the bullpen, my own preference is to use him as a starter. While that might mean sending Fister to the bullpen, I think a better option would be to use him in a modified 6-man rotation.

How would that work? Assign Ross to pitch once a week—for example, he starts every Saturday. The other pitchers would pitch on their regular rotation, but they’d get an extra day’s rest when it’s Ross’s turn to pitch. Why do that rather than just plug him into a 5-man rotation? It comes down to work load and innings limits.

Ross has never pitched more than 122 innings or faced more than 524 batters in a season. Most teams don’t want to increase that work load more than about 30 innings (or 25%) in a season. He’s faced 286 batters so far this season. If we want to limit him to about 650 batters over the rest of the season, that would work out to about 15 more starts at about 24 batters per start. I proposed a similar once-a-week schedule for Stephen Strasburg the year of his shutdown; Tango Tiger proposed a similar schedule on his blog.

Maybe Ross will be great; maybe just good; or maybe he’ll need more time in the minors. But given the disappointing state of the Nationals rotation other than Max Scherzer, let’s give him a chance.

Filed under Pitching, Player development, Roster
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June 14, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

Matt Williams costs Scherzer a no-hitter

Today Matt Scherzer pitched a complete game one-hitter. The only hit he gave up was a 7th-inning bloop single by Carlos Gomez into shallow right field, just out of the reach of second baseman Anthony Rendon. I think that if Danny Espinosa had been playing second, he would have caught it. I’ve seen Danny chase down quite a few soft fly balls out there, and he’s just a touch quicker than Anthony—quick enough to make up that half step by which Anthony missed it.

Why wasn’t Danny playing second? With Ryan Zimmerman on the DL, yesterday and today Matt Williams had Danny playing first base, Anthony playing second, and Yunel Escobar playing third. If those three guys are all playing infield, does it make any sense to play them at those positions? I think it’s pretty obvious that it doesn’t:

  • Espinosa is the best second baseman, with Rendon second best and Escobar third.
  • Rendon is the best third baseman. I haven’t seen Espinosa play enough at third to say who’s second best between him and Escobar.
  • None of the three has had experience at first base.

Knowing that, the logical positioning is to play Escobar at first, Espinosa at second, and Rendon at third. Williams’ failure to use the best positioning is an example of a general tendency I’ve seen with Williams—to try to avoid making his regular players uncomfortable. From my observation, that tendency is not characteristic of championship managers. Winning managers are willing to challenge their players and make them feel uncomfortable in order to help the team win. Yes, it’s possible to over do it, and managers should try to avoid making their players miserable. But just as it didn’t make sense to bat Michael A. Taylor lead off, and he was moved down to 8th, similarly it doesn’t make sense to play Espinosa at first when a better defensive alignment would have him at second and Escobar at first. Good managers should make the smart and tough decisions.

Filed under Management and strategy, Pitching, Roster
June 1, 2015 / Nat Anacostia

Nats’ May in review: What we’ve been waiting to see

May began with the Nationals in 4th place with a 10–13 record, 5 games behind the division leading Mets. This was the month when, for the first time, Bryce Harper played like the best player in baseball. The Nats went 18–9 and finished the month in first place in the NL East, with a 28–22 record and a half game ahead of the Mets. FanGraphs show them with a 88.2% chance of winning the division, up from 70.9% at the beginning of the month.

The month opened with the Nats in New York, playing the last three games of a 4 game set with Mets. On the 1st, Max Scherzer faced Matt Harvey and took another tough loss after allowing just one run in 7 innings, as the Nats were shut out. In the next two games, Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister took the mound, and the Nats won both games by identical 1 to 0 scores, taking the series 3 games to 1.

Returning home, the Nats faced the Marlins and took two of three. In the third game of that series, May 6, Harper hit three home runs and drove in five in a 7 to 5 win. Harper had begun a remarkable hitting streak. In the next game against the Braves, he hit two home runs. In the following game, he hit his sixth home run in three games, this time a walk-off blast. Over 19 games from May 6 through 27, Harper hit 13 home runs, drove in 28, and hit .460/.570/1.175, while his team went 15–4. The Nats swept their three game set against the Braves to finish their home stand.

The next road trip was against the NL West. The Nats took two of three against the Diamondbacks, then took three of four against the Padres. The series in San Diego proved costly, however, as both Fister and Jayson Werth went down with injuries. When Werth, who hurt his wrist when he was hit by a pitch, failed to recover after a couple of weeks, a CT scan revealed two small fractures, meaning that he will be out for at least three months.

In the next home stand, the Nats played a two-game set against the Yankees, which the Nats swept, allowing them to move into first place in the NL East. This series was followed by a three game set against the Phillies, with the Nats winning two of them.

The month concluded with a road trip against the NL Central. On Memorial Day, they opened a three-game set against the Cubs. Tanner Roark took Fister’s place in the rotation, and the Nats won a tight 2 to 1 game. They lost the second game, then won the third game to win their eighth straight series. The streak ended, however, when they moved on to Cincinnati and were swept by the Reds, as the bullpen imploded in all three games. Stephen Strasburg left the first game in the second inning with tightness in the neck and back and was placed on the 15-day disabled list. The three games the Nats lost to the Reds were the first consecutive losses suffered by the Nats since their 6-game losing streak in April.

In May, the Nats were one of the better hitting teams in baseball. They hit .270/.339/.442 and ranked 2nd in the NL in park-adjusted weighted runs created (wRC+) with 112. It wasn’t all Harper, as Denard Span also hat an excellent month with the bat, and several other players hit well.

The Nats’ rotation was a mixed bag. Scherzer was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in May, and Jordan Zimmermann pitched well. On the other hand, Gonzalez’s performance was more of a mixed bag, and Strasburg pitched poorly in all but one of his starts. The starters were 7th in the NL in ERA– with 98 (or 2% better than the average team)—this is a measure of ERA that is park-adjusted and measured relative to the league. They ranked better in fielding independent metrics, ranking 2rd in the league in FIP–, or park-adjusted fielding independent pitching with 92.

For relief pitching, my preferred metric is  RE24, which takes account of game situations, such as inherited runners. The Nats relievers ranked only 10th in the NL in May with an RE24 of –1.10. They were tied for 5th in the league in shutdowns, with 27, but were also tied for the 5th most meltdowns, with 14. And the raw statistics disguised a lot of variability among the relievers, with Drew Storen pitching 9 shutdowns with no meltdowns, while Aaron Barrett and Matt Grace each had 5 meltdowns.

Record:

18–9 (.667)

Pythagorean Record:

16–11 (4.63 R/G – 3.89 RA/G)

May MVP:

Bryce Harper (.360/.495/.884, 26 G, 13 HR, 24 R, 28 RBI, 2.6 fWAR). He led the majors in slugging percentage and home runs for May, led the NL in on-base percentage, runs, and fWAR, and tied for the NL lead in RBI.

Most valuable starting pitcher:

Max Scherzer (5–1, 1.67 RA/9, 6 G, 43 IP, 11.7 K/9, .241 opp OBP, 2.0 RA9-WAR). He led NL starters in K/9, tied for the lead in wins, and led all MLB starters in fielding independent pitching with 1.88 and in fWAR with 1.7.

Most valuable relief pitcher:

Drew Storen (1–0, 0.00 RA/9, 13 G, 12-1/3 IP, 11.7 K/9, .178 opp OBP, 5.38 RE24, 1.0 RA9-WAR).

Worst month:

Stephen Strasburg (1–3, 11.25 RA/9, 5 G, 16 IP, 8.4 K/9, .402 opp OBP, –1.0 RA9-WAR).

Best start this month:

Max Scherzer (May 27, 3–0 win over the Cubs in Chicago) gave up no runs on 5 hits and 1 walk in 7 innings, striking out 13, for a game score of 79.

Worst start:

Doug Fister (May 14, 8–3 loss to the Padres in San Diego) gave up 7 runs on 8 hits and 1 walk in 2 innings, while getting only 1 strikeout. His game score was 12.

Tough loss:

  • Max Scherzer (May 1, 4–0 loss to the Mets in New York) gave up 1 run on 5 hits and 1 walk in 7 innings with 10 strikeouts (game score 72).

Cheap win: 

  • Max Scherzer (May 6, 7–5 win over the Marlins at home) gave up 5 runs on 10 hits (though no walks) in 7 innings with 10 strikeouts (game score 47). All of Scherzer’s three losses so far have come with game scores of 60+, so his one cheap win doesn’t seem unfair.

Best shutdown: 

Casey Janssen (May 27, 3–0 win over the Cubs in Chicago). The Nats were leading 2 to 0 when Grace opened the bottom of the 8th by allowing a double to Jorge Soler and then hitting Anthony Rizzo. Janssen entered with runners on first and second and no outs. He got Kris Bryant to fly out to first, then fielded a bunt from Dexter Fowler, throwing him out at first as the runners advanced. He got a ground ball from Starlin Castro to get the third out without any damage. (Win probability added .275)

Worst meltdown:

Casey Janssen (May 30, 8–5 loss to the Reds in Cincinnati). Janssen started the bottom of the eighth with the Nats leading 5 to 4. He got Joey Votto to ground out, then allowed a double, a walk, and a single to load the bases with one out. Marlon Byrd lined out to second for the second out, and there was still hope that he would get out of the inning. But then Zack Cozart doubled, scoring two and putting the Reds ahead. Janssen intentionally walked Skip Schumaker to load the bases again, then allowed a single to Billy Hamilton, giving the Reds a 3-run lead, before getting the third out. (WPA –.710)

Clutch hit:

Michael A. Taylor (May 13, 9–6 win over the Diamondbacks in Phoenix). In the top of the ninth, the Nats were trailing 6 to 5. With one out, Addison Reed gave up two singles and a walk to load the bases. Taylor then hit a grand slam home run to give the Nats a 9 to 6 lead. (WPA .507)

Choke:

Clint Robinson (May 31, 8–2 loss to the Reds in Cincinnati). In the top of the seventh with the score tied 2 to 2, runners on first and third, and one one out, Robinson came in as a pinch hitter. He lined the ball to first base and the first baseman stepped on the bag to get the third out. (WPA –.211)

Filed under Month in review
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