The headlines say that this was the worst start of Stephen Strasburg‘s career. So, of course I have to look up his other bad starts to see how this one compares. Of 63 career starts, 8 had a game score of 39 or lower. These are his bad starts:
- August 10, 2010, 8–2 loss to Florida Marlins at home. In his first season, Strasburg went to the disabled list in late July with shoulder inflammation. He returned to make his tenth start, and for the first time he was shelled, giving up 6 runs on 6 hits, including one home run, and 2 walks in 4-1/3 innings. Game score 29
- May 15, 2012, 6–1 loss to San Diego Padres at home. After Tommy John surgery, he made it through 5 starts in 2011 and the first 7 starts of 2012 before his next bad game in start # 8. Sloppy fielding and a short rain delay left him in a hole, and he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits (including a homer) and 2 walks in 4 innings. Game score 35
- July 20, 2012, 11–10 loss to Atlanta Braves at home. I’ll never forget this game. The Nats jumped to a 9–0 lead and Strasburg was cruising through the first five. Then he hit a wall in the sixth and gave up 4 runs as the rain started falling. The bullpen couldn’t stop the bleeding, and by the time the carnage was over in 11 innings, the Nats lost 11–10. Strasburg gave up 4 runs on 8 hits (including a homer) and 3 walks in 5-1/3 innings. Game score 38
- July 31, 2012, 8–0 loss to Philadelphia Phillies at home. This one may have had the title of Strasburg’s worst start until last night. He lasted 4 innings and gave up 6 runs on 8 hits (including 2 homers) and 1 walk. Game score 24
- August 28, 2012, 9–0 loss to Miami Marlins in Miami. This time Strasburg lasted 5 innings, but gave up 7 runs on 9 hits (including a homer) and a walk. Nolasco shut out the Nats. Game score 27
- September 7, 2012, 9–7 loss to Marlins at home. This was the last game pitched by Strasburg before his shutdown. Strasburg gave up 5 runs on 6 hits (including 2 homers) and 3 walks in 3 innings. The Nats came back to tie it 6–6, but Clippard gave up 3 runs in the top of the 10th for the loss. Game score 26
- April 7, 2013, 6–3 loss to Cincinnati Reds in Cincinnati. In his 2nd start of 2013, Strasburg gave up 6 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks in 5-1/3 innings. Game score 27
- July 12, 2013, 8–3 loss to Marlins in Miami. You know this one. 7 runs, 5 hits, 4 walks, a home run by Stanton, and just 2 innings. Yes, this was the worst start of Strasburg’s carer. Game score 16
In a couple of hours, MLB will announce the All-Star teams. I could just talk about Nationals I think deserve to be on the NL All-Star team. But the way I think about it is that in order to decide which Nats belong, I have to figure out which players belong—all 35 of them—if I’m to determine whether a specific Nat is one of the deserving 35. So in addition to hearing about five Nationals, you get to see my whole team and hear about my methodology for picking them.
It’s important to note that I set up my criteria before ranking the players—I didn’t tweak the methodology to include or exclude any particular players. I was actually surprised that five Nationals made my team, with a couple of them being especially surprising.
Here’s my method:
For position players, wins above replace (WAR), specifically the Fangraphs.com version, is my metric of choice, because it takes account of so many things that it would be difficult or impossible to account for without it—defense, park effects, base running, playing time and position.
For pitchers, the Fangraphs version of WAR is based on fielding independent pitching (FIP), whereas I also like to give some weight to runs allowed, including the effect of balls in play and timing. So, instead, I took an average of WAR (based on FIP) and a measure that Fangraphs calls RA9-Wins (based on runs allowed – it’s very similar to what baseball-reference.com uses for pitching WAR).
I give heavy weight to performance in 2013, but I’m also aware that it’s not unusual for players to be hot for two or three months, then fizzle the rest of the year. So I also give some weight to 2012 performance. Finally, I give a little bit of weight to career performance – really more as just a tie-breaker. If we’ve got two pitchers with similar performance in 2012/2013, but one of them is Mariano Rivera and the other is Brett Cecil, I’d rather see Rivera at the All-Star game. I mean that’s part of what an All-Star game is about!
My formula is 4*2013 WAR (or the average of WAR and RA9-Wins for pitchers) + 2*2012 WAR + Square root(Career WAR). However, if the 2013 WAR is higher than the 2012 WAR, I substitute the 2013 WAR for the 2012 WAR in the second term of this formula, thereby allowing rookies or players who were seriously injured in 2012 to still have an opportunity to rank well. Below, I show the number of points calculated according to this formula for each player in parentheses.
I rank players by position according to this metric. I start by selecting the best player at each position as the starter, with two special rules. For the outfield, not all outfielders can play center field, but normally corner outfielders can play either corner, as can center fielders. So I require that one starter and one reserve outfielder be a center fielder, but then pool the rest of the available outfielders (including any available center fielders) to select the corners, first for the starters, then for the reserves. The All-Star game also uses a DH, so my approach to selecting a DH is to select the best available hitter (based on hitting metrics alone) after the other position players are selected, again, first for starters, then for reserves. Also, I follow the rule that every team must be represented, and indicate below the players who bumped higher ranked players in order to represent their team.
I allocated the reserves as follows: 2 catchers, 6 infielders (including at least one at each position), 5 outfielders (including at least one center fielder), 1 DH, 6 starting pitchers, and 5 relief pitchers.
The following Nationals players make my 2013 NL All-Star team:
Ian Desmond starts the game at shortstop (in place of Troy Tulowitzki, who’s on the DL). The NL has a number of good shortstops—Everth Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, and Jean Segura are all close and make my team as reserves (and are all better than any AL shortstop). But based on my criteria, Desmond is the best other than Tulowitzki.
Jordan Zimmermann – the 5th-ranked starting pitcher in the NL according to my metric.
Gio Gonzalez – the 6th-ranked starting pitcher according to my metric. His name really hasn’t been mentioned, so this selection was a bit of a surprise. But after a few rough starts at the beginning of the year, Gio’s quietly putting together a good season. Combined with his Cy Young-contender season last year, he ought to be on the consideration list for the All-Star staff.
Rafael Soriano – again he’s quietly putting together a good season, which, combined with good performance last year, lifts him to the 5th and final relief pitcher slot on my team.
Denard Span – This is the big surprise, and I have to admit that it’s may be a fluke of my system. There are really 3 very good NL center fielders according to my metric—McCutchen, Carlos Gomez, and Shin-Soo Choo—but because I allow center fielders to be in the pool for the corner outfielders and DH, they all wind up as starters on my team. Because I also decided I need at least one “true” center fielder as a reserve, I looked at 4th-ranked Dexter Fowler, who’s on the DL, and finally to Span, who is ranked 5th in the league among center fielders according to my metric. I’ll point out, though, that while Span seems to be considered a disappointment by many Nats fans, his 1.3 WAR for 2013 and 3.6 for 2012 are actually quite good. I feel like this selection can be defended.
Here’s my team:
National League – Starters
C – Buster Posey – Giants (32.8) – In one of the closest races, he just edges out Yadier Molina
1B – Joey Votto – Reds (29.9)
2B – Matt Carpenter – Cardinals (27.5)
3B – David Wright – Mets (39.8) – The leading NL player according to my system
SS – Troy Tulowitzki – Rockies (28.7) – Disabled List – Replaced by:
SS – Ian Desmond – Nationals (24.4)
LF – Ryan Braun – Brewers (28.3) – Disabled List – Replaced by:
LF – Carlos Gonzalez – Rockies (25.9)
CF – Andrew McCutchen – Pirates (33.6)
RF – Carlos Gomez – Brewers (29.5)
DH – Shin-Soo Choo – Reds (20.2)
SP – Clayton Kershaw – Dodgers (33.6)
Reserves
C – Yadier Molina – Cardinals (32.4)
C – Russell Martin – Pirates (21.2)
1B – Paul Goldschmidt – Diamondbacks (22.4)
2B – Chase Utley – Phillies (23.7)
3B – Chase Headley – Padres (25.7)
SS – Everth Cabrera – Padres (23.9)
SS – Jimmy Rollins – Phillies (22.0)
SS – Jean Segura – Brewers (21.6)
OF – Matt Holliday – Cardinals (21.2)
OF – Hunter Pence – Giants (20.9)
OF – Jason Heyward – Braves (20.7)
OF – Giancarlo Stanton – Marlins (17.6) – to represent the Marlins (in place of Starling Marte, Pirates, 20.6)
CF – Dexter Fowler – Rockies (18.2) – Disabled List – Replaced by:
CF – Denard Span – Nationals (16.4)
DH – Carlos Beltran – Cardinals (20.6)
SP – Adam Wainwright – Cardinals (30.7)
SP – Cliff Lee – Phillies (30.6)
SP – Matt Harvey – Mets (28.2)
SP – Jordan Zimmermann – Nationals (23.6)
SP – Gio Gonzalez – Nationals (21.9)
SP – Jeff Samardzija – Cubs (16.6) – to represent the Cubs (in place of Patrick Corbin, Diamondbacks, 20.7)
RP – Craig Kimbrel – Braves (14.1)
RP – Aroldis Chapman – Reds (13.2)
RP – Mark Melancon – Pirates (13.0)
RP – Jason Grilli – Pirates (11.0)
RP – Rafael Soriano – Nationals (10.7)
Finally, I can’t end this article without answering the question about Yasiel Puig. Puig did remarkably well according to my metric, with 13.4 points, considering he’s only played for one month. If he’d had two months at that level (as Mike Trout did last year), he would have made my team. But despite Puig’s phenomenal month, I think it’s fair that he wait a year to better demonstrate his talent before possibly making next year’s team. When other very good players like Gerardo Parra and Jay Bruce can’t make my team, I don’t have a problem with leaving Puig off.
PS. The official All-Star Game selections have been announced, and Bryce Harper was voted in as a starter by the fans, while Jordan Zimmermann is the only other Nat selected. (Ian Desmond’s name will appear on a ballot for the final slot.) How did Bryce do according to my criteria? He had 17.9 points. That came close. The only outfielder with more points who didn’t make my team was Starling Marte, with 20.6. Two outfielders with fewer points did make my team, however—Giancarlo Stanton with 17.6 (because the Marlins needed a representative) and Denard Span with 16.4 (because we needed a reserve center fielder). I understand how Harper made the team, due to his huge celebrity, but at this point his career continues to be more promise than realization (though his fantastic start in April suggests that the realization may be coming soon).
Other Nationals who came close to making my team but missed included Adam LaRoche with 11.7 points, who ranked 5th among NL first baseman behind Votto and Goldschmidt, who made my team, and Adrian Gonzalez and Allen Craig, who didn’t. At third base, Ryan Zimmerman ranked fourth with 18.7 points behind Wright and Headley, who made my team, and Aramis Ramirez, who didn’t. And Stephen Strasburg ranked ninth among starting pitchers with 19.3 points, placing behind Kershaw, Wainwright, Lee, Harvey, Zimmermann, and Gonzalez, who made my team, and Patrick Corbin and Mat Latos, who didn’t. All in all, the Nationals did very well on this exercise.
PPS. I made a mistake. There are actually 34 roster spots, rather than the 35 that I was assuming. (I must have thought that the final slot filled by fan ballot was in addition to the 34 rather than included in that total.) If I had used the right total, Heyward is the one that I wouldn’t have selected.
For the third straight month, the Nationals played mediocre and disappointing baseball in June. With a 13-13 record for the month, they ended the month the same as they started it, one game above .500. But the Braves went 16–12 in June, so the Nats slipped to 6-1/2 games behind. According to coolstandings.com, the Nats’ odds of winning the division have dropped to 7.9%, and of making the wild card to 19.9%.
On the injury front, Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos were out all month on the disabled list, and Stephen Strasburg missed the first half of the month. On June 4, the Nats did a minor roster overhaul, designating Henry Rodriguez and Zach Duke for assignment and placing Danny Espinosa on the DL for his broken wrist, calling up Anthony Rendon to take his place at second. Jayson Werth returned from the DL at about the same time. A few days later, Rodriguez was traded to the Cubs, and Duke, after being released by the Nats, signed with the Reds.
The injuries and releases created opportunities, as relievers Erik Davis, Ian Krol, and starter Tyler Jordan each made their major league debuts in June. Ross Ohlendorf was also called up to make a start against the Rockies, and pitched so well that he was asked to stay as the long relief man.
The month began with the Nats playing the last two games of a series in Atlanta. They had won the first game on the last day of May, but lost the next two and the series. They returned home where they split two games against the Mets, slipping to third place behind the Phillies. The Nats then won two of three against the Twins, pulling back into second place.
Next came a 9-game road trip. The Nats won two of three against the Rockies, then lost two of three against the Indians. Going to Philadelphia, they lost the first two and dropped into a tie for second place with the Phillies, before losing the third game to move back into sole possession of second place.
Returning the Washington, the Nats split a 4-game series against the Rockies. They took the first two games against the Diamondbacks, but lost the third game in an extra inning heart breaker. The Nats then went to New York City to play the final series of the month against the Mets. In the first game, they were mostly shut down by Matt Harvey in the first part of the game, but were able to come back against the Mets’ bullpen for a come-from-behind victory. The second game, Jordan’s major league debut, was a sloppy game in which the Nats were killed by errors. But the final game on the last day of June was a long-awaited blowout, which the Nats won 13–2 behind four home runs and 7 innings of shutout pitching from Gio Gonzalez.
Record:
13–13 (.500)
Pythagorean Record:
13–13 (3.92 R/G – 3.81 RA/G)
MVP for June:
Ian Desmond (.306/.355/.633, 26 G, 108 PA, 9 HR, 16 R, 28 RBI, 1.5 fWAR, 1.24 WPA, 13.33 RE24).
Most valuable pitcher:
Gio Gonzalez (2–0, 2.01 R/9, 6 G, 40-1/3 IP, 9.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 10.25 RE24, 1.6 rWAR). Honorable mention goes to Jordan Zimmermann (3–0, 2.83 R/9, 35 IP).
Most valuable reliever:
Tyler Clippard (3–0, 0.84 R/9, 10 G, 10-2/3 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 5.1 H/9, 4.08 RE24, 0.72 WPA, 6 shutdowns, 0 meltdown). Close behind were Ian Krol (1.54 R/9, 5 shutdowns, no meltdown) and Rafael Soriano (1.64 R/9, 7 shutdowns, no meltdown).
Worst month:
Dan Haren (0–3, 9.82 R/9, 4 G, 18-1/3 IP, 29 H, 7 HR).
Best start this month:
Jordan Zimmermann (June 9, 7–0 win over the Twins at home in first game of a doubleheader). Zimmermann pitched 7 innings, gave up 2 hits, 2 walks, and no runs, and got 8 K with a game score of 79.
Worst start:
Ross Detwiler (June 23, 7–6 loss to the Rockies at home). Detwiler pitched 3-2/3 innings and gave up 9 hits, 7 runs, 1 walk, and 2 home runs, while getting 3 K with a game score of 17.
Tough loss:
Stephen Strasburg (June 16, 2–0 loss to the Indians in Cleveland). In Strasburg’s first start after returning from the DL, he pitched 5 innings and gave up 1 run on 1 hit and 4 walks, striking out 4, but received no run support and was charged with the loss. (Game score of 61)
Best shutdown:
Rafael Soriano (June 15, 7–6 win over the Indians in Cleveland). Soriano entered for the one-run save after Rendon hit a solo homer in the top of the ninth to put the Nats ahead. He struck out Giambi and Raburn, then gave up a double to Aviles before getting Bourn to line out to end the game. (Win probability added .195).
Worst meltdown:
Henry Rodriguez (June 1, 2–1 loss to the Braves in Atlanta in 10 innings) entered in the bottom of the 10th in a 1–1 tie. He walked Gattis to lead off the inning. Gattis was replaced by pinch runner Schafer, who stole second, and after getting a foul out, Rodriguez walked Uggla. BJ Upton hit a one-out single to score Schafer, giving the Braves a walk-off victory. (Win probability added –.370) Fernando Abad also allowed a couple of walk off wins under similar circumstances, but I’m giving the award to Henry because his came against our divisional rival.
Clutch hit:
Anthony Rendon (June 15, 7–6 win over the Indians in Cleveland). In the top of the 9th with the score tied 6–6 and two outs, Rendon hit a solo home run—his first major league dinger—giving the Nats the lead and the margin for victory. (WPA .415)
Choke:
Jhonatan Solano (June 16, 2–0 loss to the Indians in Cleveland) came to bat in the top of the 7th with no outs, the bases loaded, and the Nats trailing 1–0. He lined out, with Steve Lombardozzi doubled off second and no runners scoring (WPA –.290). Roger Bernadina followed with a ground out to end the inning without the Nationals scoring.
Like a lot of Nats fans, I was questioning Dan Haren‘s role as the fifth starter as early as the third week of the season. I looked at it then and concluded that we should give him more time. Although he’d already been bombed a couple of times, there were still a lot of things to like—a good strikeout rate, an excellent walk rate, and evidence that some of the home runs allowed were just bad luck. Now he’s had 15 starts, and the picture is similar. His strikeout rate (7.35/9) continues to be good. His walk rate (1.43/9) is excellent. His batting average on balls in play (.328) is a little above average, while his home run rate is huge, but 15.8% HR/FB is well above the norm and would typically be indicative of bad luck.
Nevertheless, I think it’s now time for him to go. Look at what he’s allowed from the perspective of a batter’s line: .306/.340/.548. He’s simply being hit too much and when he’s hit, he’s hit hard. The typical opposing batter’s .548 slugging percentage would rank 7th in the NL league leaders for batters. You can’t have the average opposing batter hitting like Ryan Braun and expect to win. (Though, as I noted earlier, despite having now made six terrible starts, the run support in those starts has been so bad that it’s doubtful that he’s cost the Nats more than about one win.)
Also, with the emergence of Ross Ohlendorf as a viable fifth starter, it just doesn’t make sense to continue to trot Haren out every fifth day. I guess I don’t have a strong opinion whether Haren should go to the DL, to the bullpen, or should simply be released, but I don’t think he deserves to continue starting.
PS. About the time I posted this, news was coming out that Haren’s being placed on the DL. That’s not really a surprise. I think it would be surprising to see him return to the rotation again. Unless Ohlendorf melts down, I think we’ve seen the last of Dan Haren as a Nats starter.
For the last few weeks I’ve been noticing something about Davey Johnson‘s management style, and after Dan Haren‘s start last night I decided to do some research. I’ve noticed that while a lot of other managers will pull a pitcher when he gets in trouble, Davey prefers to let him try to work his way through the inning, and strongly prefers to bring in relievers at the start of an inning.
I hadn’t realized how extreme Davey is in this regard. This season, Nats relievers have entered games with 45 inherited runners, whereas the average team has had 86 inherited runners. In fact, the Nats rank 30th of the 30 MLB teams in inherited runners; number 29 is Cincinnati with 57. (The Angels rank 1st with 128.) This isn’t new. Last season, the Nats ranked 29th with 177 inherited runners (versus an MLB average of 233). But this season, Davey is even more extreme in his insistence that pitchers finish their inning.
So last night, when Dan led off the 5th inning with a walk to Rosario, it seemed apparent that he was starting to lose his command. After the home run to the next batter, Colvin, I was thinking that Davey ought to get someone warming up. Haren followed with a strikeout, a single, and another double, and the heart of the Rockies order was ahead with two on and only one out. I was really surprised that no one was getting ready in the bullpen. We know what followed; a groundout followed by a 3-run homer by Gonzalez, then singles by Tulowitzki and Helton, and finally a merciful third out, with Haren in there for the duration of the inning. How many other managers would have hung onto a pitcher who seemed so obviously out of gas?
I took a look at Dan’s other bad starts to see if there was a similar pattern of Davey hanging on too long, trying to let him work his way out of a final bad inning. Of Haren’s 13 starts, 5 have been the disasters that has many Nats fans anxious to dump him—April 5 in Cincinnati, April 16 in Miami, May 19 in San Diego, June 5 at home against the Mets, and last night in Colorado. In those 5 games he pitched 22-1/3 innings and gave up 40 hits, 30 runs, and 12 home runs (of his league-leading 17).
In the April 5 game, he didn’t pitch effectively at all, giving up 2 runs in the 2nd, 3 more in the 3rd, and another in the 4th. Similarly, on June 5 he gave up 2 in the 2nd and 3 in the 3rd, never really pitching effectively. The other two games came closer to matching the pattern of last night’s game. On April 16 he pitched well for the first 3 innings, allowing only one hit and no runs. Then in the 4th, after a one-out E5, he allowed 2 singles followed by a home run, giving up 4 runs. In the May 19 game, he gave up 3 in the 1st, then didn’t allow any more runs during the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th (allowing only 2 hits), before falling apart in the 5th and giving up 4 runs. So in 3 of the 5 games, Davey tried to get him to get out of trouble, even though he looked like he was gassed.
So, is Davey’s strategy a bad one? The evidence is mixed. Starting pitchers generally do worse the later they pitch into games, but evidence also indicates that giving up hits doesn’t necessarily mean that they will pitch poorly the rest of the game. I guess my view, though, is that it’s best not to be extreme. I’m willing to let my manager try to get his pitchers to finish their inning and try to bring in relievers with a clean slate. But if you’re the most extreme manager in baseball on this issue, I’m thinking that you’re probably taking it too far. So, yes, I’d like to see Davey turning to his bullpen a little earlier when a pitcher isn’t getting it done, and stop insisting that he try to work his way out of trouble.
One final observation. Those 5 games where Haren pitched terribly – how many would the Nats have won if he’d pitched decently? Probably only one. They lost them by scores of 15–0, 8–2, 13–4, 10–1, and 8–3. The problem in those games wasn’t just Haren’s pitching (or the ineffective bullpen either). The Nats only scored 10 runs in those 5 games. Even with decent pitching, the offense just wasn’t enough to give the Nats a realistic shot at winning.
In May, the Nationals’ starting pitching came around, but their bats largely went dormant. By winning most of their close games (they had a 5–2 record in one-run games), the Nats were able to complete the month with a 15–13 record, but they weren’t able to pick up any ground on the Braves, ending the month behind by the same 4-1/2 games as at the beginning of the month.
The big story in May, however, was injuries. On May 1, Bryce Harper had to leave the game early because of a bruise he suffered the previous night attempting in vain to catch Tim Hudson’s home run. The next evening, Jayson Werth had to leave the game early with a hamstring injury. It would be the last game he played in May, though he wouldn’t be added to the disabled list until May 11. Meanwhile, Ryan Zimmerman was reactivated (and Anthony Rendon was sent back to Harrisburg), while Harper continued to play most games despite complaints about his bruised side. On May 10, however, Harper was out again, this time due to removal of an ingrown toenail. After missing a couple of games, he returned and on May 13, playing at Dodgers Stadium, Harper slammed face-first into the right field fence. Although the team denied it, it is likely that he had suffered a concussion, in addition to injuring his knee.
Harper continued to play more games than he missed, but the injuries continued to mount. On May 15, Ross Detwiler left the game with an oblique strain and Wilson Ramos left with another injury to his hamstring—injuries that would land both of them on the disabled list. On May 19, Ryan Mattheus suffered a meltdown in a relief appearance and afterwards expressed his frustration by slamming his fist into his locker, breaking his pitching hand. On May 24, we learned that Danny Espinosa had been playing with a broken wrist since April 14, a period during which he hit an abysmal .158/.181/.267. Bizarrely, he was rested only a few days and returned to the lineup again on May 29 with no improvement in results. On May 26, Harper slid into third base and aggravated the knee that had been bothering him since the Dodgers Stadium incident; on June 1 he would be placed on the disabled list. Finally, on the last day of May, Stephen Strasburg was pulled from a game against the Braves after two innings with what would be diagnosed as lat strain. It’s still unclear how serious that injury will be.
The month began well, as the Nats won their last two games of a series in Atlanta, splitting with the Braves. Moving to Pittsburgh, they took two of three, and then they returned home to sweep a two-game series against the Tigers, as their offense finally seemed to come to life. Next, the Cubs came to Washington, and after taking the first game, the Nats’ record stood at 20–15, as they found themselves only one game behind the Braves. They lost the next two games to the Cubs, then left on a West Coast road trip. They lost two of three to the Dodgers, then won the first two games against the Padres, keeping pace with the Braves and remaining only a half game behind the division leader. But the Nats then lost the last two games in San Diego and the first two in San Francisco, while the Braves won each day, and the Nats quickly found themselves back to 4-1/2 games out. They beat the Giants in the last game of their road trip, going 4–6 over the 10-game set.
Returning the Washington, the Nats took two of three from the Phillies and split two games against the Orioles. Moving on Baltimore, the Orioles took both games, including a 9–6 come-from-behind thrashing of the Nats, who had gained the lead with three home runs from Zimmerman. The month ended in Atlanta, where the Nats held on to beat the Braves 3–2, despite the injury to Strasburg.
The Nationals success in May owed almost nothing to their bats. Over the month, the team hit a collective .230/.286/.362, which scaled in terms of runs relative to the league (wRC+) was 77, or 23% below average, ranking 14th among the 15 NL teams. Their starting pitching kept them alive, with a 3.24 ERA during the month (3rd in the NL) and a 3.68 FIP (fielding independent pitching), ranking 7th. The relievers continued to be mediocore, with their RE24 (a measure of runs allowed that adjusts for inherited runners) of 0.94 ranking 11th in the league. Finally, according to Fangraph’s “Fld” measure of fielding, the Nats ranked 12th (–3.0) during May, and their baserunning (–1.7) also ranked 12th of the 15 teams.
Record:
15–13 (.536)
Pythagorean Record:
14–14 (3.46 R/G – 3.57 RA/G)
MVP for May:
Adam LaRoche (.330/.416/.608, 28 G, 113 PA, 7 HR, 17 R, 19 RBI, 1.3 fWAR, 1.51 WPA, 13.21 RE24).
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Jordan Zimmermann (4–2, 2.89 R/9, 6 G, 43-2/3 IP, 6.2 K/9, 0.6 BB/9, 5.87 RE24, 1.0 rWAR).
Most valuable reliever:
Tyler Clippard (2–0, 2.13 R/9, 13 G, 12-2/3 IP, 12.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 5.7 H/9, 2.66 RE24, 0.41 WPA, 1 of 5 inherited runners scored, 5 shutdowns, 1 meltdown).
Worst month:
Tyler Moore (.123/.183/.231, 21 G, 71 PA, –1.1 fWAR). One way to think of this is that, relative to a replacement-level player, Moore cost the Nats about as many wins as LaRoche gave the team.
Best start this month:
Jordan Zimmermann (May 1, 2–0 win over the Braves in Atlanta). Zimmermann pitched 8 innings, gave up 2 hits, no walks, and no runs, and got 8 K with a game score of 86.
Worst start:
Dan Haren (May 19, 13–4 loss to the Padres in San Diego). Haren pitched 5 innings and gave up 9 hits, 7 runs, 2 walks, and 2 home runs, while getting 5 K with a game score of 24.
Best shutdown:
Craig Stammen (May 31, 3–2 win over the Braves in Atlanta). Stammen entered when Strasburg left with a lat strain after the end of the 2nd inning, with the Nats leading 2–1. Craig pitched 4 innings without allowing a baserunner, leaving with the Nats still ahead 3–1. (Win probability added .265).
Worst meltdown:
Rafael Soriano (May 17, 6–5 win over the Padres in San Diego) entered in the bottom of the 9th with a 5–3 lead. He gave up four singles and two runs before finally getting the third out and sending the game to extra innings. (Win probability added –.424) In the 10th inning, however, Chad Tracy came through with the clutch hit (see below) for the Nats to win.
Clutch hit:
Chad Tracy (May 17, 6–5 win over the Padres in San Diego). In the top of the 10th with the score tied 5–5, Tracy came up as a pinch hitter with the bases empty and two outs and hit a solo home run to give the Nats the margin for victory. (WPA .424)
Choke:
Ian Desmond (May 15, 3–1 loss to the Dodgers in Los Angeles) came to bat in the top of the 8th with one out, runners on first and third, and the Nats trailing 2–1. He struck out (WPA –.169).
There’s an old saying that March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. For the Nationals, that’s a pretty good description of their April. They started the seasons with heady expectations—the consensus pick as the best team in the National League, if not in all of baseball. The ended the month 13–14, their first monthly losing record since August 2011, and 4-1/2 games behind the Atlanta Braves.
The Nats started the season at home with a sweep of the Marlins. The first sign of trouble came in game 4 in Cincinnati, where the Reds humiliated the Nationals 15–0, scoring six runs off starter Dan Haren and nine off the bullpen, hitting a total of six home runs. The Nats managed to win the next game 7–6 in 11 innings, but then lost the rubber game, with Stephen Strasburg allowing six runs in one of the worst outings of his career.
The Nats returned to Washington to face the White Sox and swept the 3-game series. With a 7–2 record, the Nats were still looking good, but they were hosting the Atlanta Braves, who were even better with an 8–1 record. Ross Detwiler pitched well in the first game, but the bullpen and sloppy defense couldn’t hold the lead, as the Nats lost 6–4 in 10 innings. In the next game the Nats’ hitters were stifled by Tim Hudson in a 3–1 loss, and Wilson Ramos pulled his hamstring, winding up on the disabled list. In the series finale, Gio Gonzalez had his worst start since coming to Washington, as the Nats were shutout 9–0 and dropped to four games behind the Braves.
The team was able to partially recover by picking up two games of three in Miami. Ryan Zimmerman, bothered by hamstring issues, was also making a series of ugly throwing errors. After skipping the first couple of games in the next series in New York against the Mets, he was placed on the DL. In the opener against New York, the Mets’ new ace, Matt Harvey, outpitched Strasburg in a 7–1 loss. The Nats won the next game 7–6, hitting four home runs, but lost the finale 2–0 facing Dillon Gee. The Nats’ top prospect, Anthony Rendon, made his MLB debut replacing Zimmerman at third.
The Nats returned home to face the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards took the first game 3–2, and Adam Wainwright and Edward Mujica combined the shut out the Nats 2–0 in the second game. In game 3, Jaime Garcia outpitched Strasburg for a 4–2 victory and a series sweep. The Nats managed better against the Reds, as they won the first game 8–1 behind a fine performance by Gonzalez. In game 2, Jordan Zimmermann pitched a complete game one-hit shutout, beating the Reds 1–0 in one of the best pitched games Washington Nationals’ history. In game 3, Haren was finally able to pitch well, as the Nats won 6–3. They then lost the finale of the four-game series, 5–2.
The month concluded in Atlanta with the first two games of a four-game set against the Braves. Strasburg continued with his string of bad luck and relatively poor (by his standards) control, as concern mounted about his “forearm tightness.” Tyler Clippard was unable to hold the tied game and was charged with the 3–2 loss. In the second game, the Braves again beat up on Gonzalez, as the Nats took an 8–1 loss.
Why did the Nats do so poorly this month? The bats bear the largest share of the blame, as the team hit a collective .234/.296/.391, which scaled in terms of runs relative to the league (wRC+) was 89, or 11% below average, ranking 13th of the 15 NL teams. The vaunted starting pitching, however, also disappointed, as the starters’ 3.59 ERA and 3.74 FIP (fielding independent pitching) were ranked only fifth in the NL. The relievers contributed to the disappointment, with their RE24 (a measured of runs allowed that adjusts for inherited runners) of -4.42 ranking 11th in the league. Finally, according to Fangraph’s “Fld” measure of fielding, the Nats ranked 7th, or about average, but their baserunning, -2.8, ranked 14th of the 15 teams.
There was some good news in the team’s record this month, though. Bryce Harper began the season on the tear and looks like he could emerge as an MVP-type player. Denard Span successfully made the adjustment to the new team and league, and Ian Desmond and Jordan Zimmermann also had fine records for the month. If they can maintain their pace, and players like Adam LaRoche and Gio Gonzalez can start playing up to their capabilities, the Nationals still have time to turn this season around.
Record:
13–14 (.481)
Pythagorean Record:
11–16 (3.56 R/G – 4.26 RA/G)
MVP for April:
Bryce Harper (.344/.430/.720, 26 G, 107 PA, 9 HR, 18 R, 18 RBI, 1.4 fWAR, 1.26 WPA, 12.98 RE24). He ended the month ranked ninth in MLB in fWAR, ranked second in wOBA and in wRC+, and tied for second in home runs.
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Jordan Zimmermann (4–1, 2.00 R/9, 5 G, 36 IP, 4.8 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 8.39 RE24, 1.0 rWAR).
Most valuable reliever:
This category is a tough one, since none of the relievers did especially well. I’ll give the nod to Craig Stammen (2–1, 2.84 R/9, 8 G, 12-2/3 IP, 10.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 7.1 H/9, 2.80 RE24, 0.13 WPA, 2 of 6 inherited runner scored, 3 shutdowns, 2 meltdowns).
Best start this month:
Jordan Zimmermann (April 26, 1–0 win over the Reds at home). Zimmermann pitched a one-hit, complete game shutout, giving up 1 BB, getting 4 K and a game score of 88.
Worst start:
Gio Gonzalez (April 14, 9–0 loss to the Braves at home, 5 IP, 7 H, 2 HR, 7 R, 3 BB, 3 K, game score of 25). Dan Haren‘s April 5 start in Cincinnati in a 15–0 loss also had a game score of 25, but I give the nod to Gonzalez because it came against our divisional rival.
Best shutdown:
Craig Stammen (April 22, 3–2 loss to the Cardinals at home). Stammen entered in the top of the sixth with the bases loaded, no outs, and the Nats trailing 3–2. He got out of the inning without giving up a run, getting a double play at home and a strikeout, then pitched a scoreless seventh. (Win probability added .263).
Worst meltdown:
Craig Stammen (April 12, 6–4 loss to the Braves at home) entered in the top of the 10th with the game tied 4–4 and gave up a walk to Dan Uggla followed by a home run to Ramiro Pena. (Win probability added –.419)
Clutch hit:
Adam LaRoche (April 20, 7–6 win over the Mets in New York). In the top of the fifth, the Nats behind 5–3, two outs, and runners on second and third, LaRoche hit a three-run homer to give the Nats the lead (WPA .370). The Mets came back to tie it in the seventh, but Harper hit his second home run of the game in the eighth to give the Nats their victory.
Choke:
Jayson Werth (April 21, 2–0 loss to the Mets in New York) grounded into a double play on a 3–0 count in the top of the eighth with the Nats trailing 2–0, no outs, and runners on first and second (WPA –.198).
OK – after watching Tuesday’s game, I intended to write a post calling on Mike Rizzo to release Dan Haren. But then I went to build the case and decided it just wasn’t there. There’s a lot of evidence that Haren’s problem is more bad luck than bad stuff.
First, the summary of his ugly first three starts:
- In Game 4 against the Reds, he pitched 4 innings, gave up 9 hits including 4 homers, and left with the Nats trailing 6–0 in a game they would ultimately lose 15–0.
- In Game 9 against the White Sox, he pitched 5 innings, gave up 10 hits, and left with the Nats ahead 6–3 in a game they would win 7–4.
- In Game 14 against the Marlins, he pitched 4-1/3 innings, gave up 7 hits including a 3-run homer, and left with the bases loaded, one out, and the Nats trailing 5–0, having just walked in the Marlins fifth run. The Fish would go on to win it 8–2.
So what’s there to like? First, there are his strikeouts and walks, which are important because they are the first statistics to stabilize and the only ones that are even a little bit significant this early in the season. His strikeout rate is a respectable 17.1% and he’s only given up one walk (albeit at a very inopportune time), giving him a fantastic walk rate of 1.4%. Of course his 8.10 ERA is ugly, as is his 6.83 FIP, but he shows up much better with metrics that attempt to neutralize the luck elements associated with balls in play and with home runs. Haren’s batting average on balls in play is a very unlucky .420, his rate of home runs per fly ball has been 19.2% in this short season, and his left-on-base percentage has been 59.1%—all rates that are indicative of bad luck and almost certain to normalize. His xFIP is a more respectable 4.61 and his SIERA is 4.19.
Looking at the home runs he’s given up, there’s even more evidence of bad luck. Three of the four homers in the Cincinnati game barely cleared the fence—what the ESPN Home Run Tracker website call “Just Enough” (JE) homers. Normally, JE homers represent 27% of all home runs, so having 3 JE homers of 5 represents some bad luck. That site also estimates for each home run, at how many ballparks it would have been a home run under standardized playing conditions. The Choo homer would have made it out in only 6 ballparks, and the two Cozart homers in 11 and 13—in each case, a minority of all ballparks. Looking at the video, the Choo homer would have been a double in most other parks, but the Cozart homers probably could have been caught in a more spacious park. There was definitely some bad luck with Haren’s 5 taters.
James Wagner at the Washington Post describes how Haren has been throwing more straight fastballs and fewer cutters this season, and suggests that maybe he needs to throw more cutters and not throw them as hard. I don’t know whether Haren will be effective this season, but after looking at things more carefully, I now agree that what we’ve seen is more consistent with bad luck than with truly bad performance. In mid-April it can be tough to convince yourself that early season statistics are mostly noise, so I have to keep reminding myself. I’ll keep watching and waiting.
The Braves have swept the Nats and now lead them in the standings by four games. We’ll hear the standard bromides: it’s still early April; early season standings don’t mean much; there’s still plenty of time to make it up. While there is certainly some truth to these platitudes, the reality is that what’s happened in the last two weeks, and especially in the last three games does have a significant impact on the Nats’ playoff odds. It matters.
We can think about each win or loss having two kinds of significance. There’s the direct significance: The Nationals are now four games behind the Braves. To win the division, over the remaining 150 games they will now have to win five more than the Braves win. Since the Braves are obviously pretty good, that’s a lot tougher task than the task we faced two weeks ago—to win one more game than the Braves over 162.
Then there’s what Bill James, writing about this topic way back in the 1985 Bill James Baseball Abstract, called the “signature significance”: The fact that the Braves have started the season 11–1 is an indication that the Braves are an unusually good team, probably better than we thought they were at the beginning of the season. That’s true, even though 12 games is a small sample, because it’s far more likely that a really good team will go 11–1 than an average team. He gave the example of a pitcher striking out 15 batters in a game without walking anyone. Even though we normally would never evaluate a pitcher based on a single game, such an extreme performance signifies that this is an unusual pitcher. An average pitcher like Livan Hernandez or Jason Marquis might occasionally have a very good game, but not that good.
I’m aware of two websites that provide playoff odds that are updated daily, and they often give very different results, especially during the first half of the season. My understanding is that Baseball Prospectus gives heavy weight to its projections of the strength of each team, which I believe are based on projected performances of the individual players on the team. When its odds are updated each day, you are mostly picking up the direct significance, because their projections of team strength are adjusted very gradually. With each Braves win this weekend, their playoff odds have increased 4 to 5 percentage points, with the Nats declining by a similar amount.
The other website is coolstandings.com. My understanding is that it bases its playoff odds entirely on what’s happened this year to date, so it’s pretty much at the opposite extreme from Baseball Prospectus—it’s giving an extremely large weight to the “signature significance” of the games won and runs scored by each team. One thing that’s nice with their web site is that it allows you to select the date, so you can look back at how the odds have changed day by day. In the last three games, the Nats’ playoff odds have dropped by 16-1/2 percentage points, from 48.6% to 32%. (At the time I’m writing this, Baseball Prospectus hasn’t updated their odds to include today’s game, but I’m guessing that it will come in about 55%, representing their still fairly strong evaluation of Washington’s talent.)
My point isn’t that we should abandon hope – the platitudes about the long season are certainly correct that a three-game sweep early in the season can easily be reversed later in the season. But it’s definitely the case that the Nats have dug themselves into a bit of hole and it may be tough to dig out. It will be critical that the next time they face the Braves, they will need to play better and win some of the remaining series between these two elite teams.
Nats Noodles 