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May 8, 2025 / Nat Anacostia

‘The roller coaster that we sign up for’: Nats’ April in review

For the fourth consecutive season, the Nationals started the season with low expectations after spending the off-season shopping in the bargain basement. The Fangraphs forecast before the season began showed the Nats winning 72 games, good for fourth place in the NL East, and only a 3% chance of making the playoffs. Still, with breakouts possible from several of the young players, there was hope that the team might exceed expectations and provide the platform for building a truly competitive team.

A couple of important news items appeared just before the season began. One was from television announcer Bob Carpenter saying that he planned to retire at the end of the season. 2025 is his 20th season as the Nats’ play-by-play announcer and his 42nd season in MLB. The other news item was more ominous—pitcher DJ Herz was going on the injured list with a UCL sprain in his elbow. As often follows from such news, we later learned that he underwent Tommy John surgery on April 18, leaving him out of baseball for the coming year.

The Nationals opened the season at home on March 27 against the Phillies. The first game went to extra innings but ended with a loss, as did the second game. But the Nats won the third game to avoid a sweep. In the third game, Brad Lord, a 25-year-old right-handed pitcher whom the Nats had drafted in the 18th round of the 2022 draft, made his major league debut in relief.

The team then had a short, one-city road trip to Toronto to face the Blue Jays. In the first game, Michael Soroka, making his Nationals debut, started the game but took the loss after leaving with a biceps strain that put him on the 15-day injured list. He didn’t pitch the rest of the month. In the second game, the Nats rallied to tie the game in the top of the seventh but gave up two runs in the bottom of the eighth for their second loss. They also lost the third game, getting swept by the Jays and leaving them with a 1–5 record.

Back in Washington, the Nats’ next series was against the Diamondbacks. Several members of the 2005 Nationals returned to Washington for the series, which honored the 20th anniversary of the return of MLB to the city. The Nationals lost the first game but won the next two for their first series win of the season. All three games were close ones, each decided by one or two runs.

Next, the Nats hosted the Dodgers, who many writers considered to be the best team in baseball. The Nats got some clutch hits and good pitching to win the first game. Brad Lord started the second game, moving from the bullpen to the rotation to take Soroka’s place. (Lord had mainly been a starter in the minor leagues.) James Wood homered twice to lead the Nats to victory in game two. The Nats fell to the Dodgers in game three but won the series, giving them a 4–2 record for the homestand.

Their next road trip opened in Miami against the Marlins. In the first game, the Nats rallied for a comeback win. But CJ Abrams suffered a right hip flexor strain, which put him on the 10-day IL. The Nats then lost the second and third games and the series. In the third game Cole Henry, a 25-year-old right-handed relief pitcher, made his major league debut. Henry was the Nats’ second-round draft pick in 2020. The path of the former top prospect to the majors was delayed by injuries, leading him to have surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in August 2022. This spring he switched to a full-time relief role. 

The Nats then went to Pittsburgh for a four-game series against the Pirates. They lost the first game to the Pirates ace, Paul Skenes, but came back to shut out the Bucs in the second game. In the top of the sixth inning, Paul Dejong was hit in the face by a fastball. He was placed on the injured list and ultimately had surgery to repair a broken nose and damage to the sinuses and the orbital bone, leaving him sidelined until at least July. Game three will be remembered for Jorge Lopez‘s inability to locate his pitches on a chilly night, which culminated with a pitch thrown just above Andrew McCutchen’s head. The umpire didn’t appear likely to do anything until the Pirates manager came out to argue that Lopez’s pitch was intentional. McCutchen and Lopez then began exchanging words and the benches cleared. The umpire then ejected Lopez from the game. I don’t believe that it was intentional—Lopez had been wild all inning, and what pitcher intentionally tries to hit someone when it will fill the bases in a two-run game? At any rate, McCutchen walked and the next batter, Oneil Cruz, immediately hit a grand slam off Eduardo Salazar to turn a 2–0 score to 6–0. The Nats lost 6–1. In the fourth game, the Nats were shut out, losing a pitchers’ duel 1–0, and losing the series 3 games to 1.

The road trip concluded with a three-game series in Colorado. The first game scheduled for Friday night was postponed due to snow, to be made up in a Sunday doubleheader. On Saturday the Nats went into the bottom of the seventh leading 12–2 but ultimately barely held on to win the game 12–11. The games in the Sunday doubleheader were lower scoring, with the Nats winning the first one 3–2 but losing the second 3–1. They finished the road trip with a 4–6 record.

Back home, the Nats opened the home stand with a three-game series against the Orioles. They won the first two games but lost the third. Their next series was four games against the division-leading Mets, who at the time had a .720 winning percentage, the best in baseball. The first three games were all hard fought, with the Nats winning ninth inning walk-off victories in the first and third games but losing the second game 2–0. The fourth game, however, was a blowout, with the Mets winning 19–5. For the home stand overall, the Nats had a 4–3 record against two good opponents.

The month concluded with the Nats in Philadelphia playing the first two games of a three-game series against the Phillies. They lost both games, ending the month with an overall record of 13–18, which left them in fourth place in the NL East, 8 games behind the division-leading Mets. 

For the month of April (including the games in late March), the Nats’ greatest strength was their starting pitching, which was roughly league average. Their starters’ ERA was 4.04 (ranking 18th among the 30 teams), while their park-adjusted ERA– was 99 (16th) and their fielding independent pitching or FIP– was 95 (14th). The Nats relievers, however, were a different story. Their ERA was a dismal 7.41, dead last among the 30 MLB teams. The story doesn’t change much if you look at their ERA– of 181 (30th) or FIP– of 126 (29th). The Nats’ offense was, overall, only a bit below average. Their weighted runs created plus (wRC+, a park-adjusted measure of overall batting effectiveness) was 95, ranking 18th among the 30 teams.

In addition to the major league debuts of Lord and Henry, the players that the Nats acquired during the off-season made their debuts with the team early in the season. Nathaniel Lowe became the regular first baseman, and Paul DeJong was the regular third baseman until his April 15 injury. Amed Rosario was the main utility infielder, appearing in 17 games and starting in 10 of them. And Josh Bell, who returned to the Nats after a two-and-a-half season gap, was the regular DH. Starting pitcher Michael Soroka started the season in the rotation but was injured in his first start. And relievers Jorge Lopez, Lucas Sims, and Colin Poche all pitched regularly, though not always successfully, from the bullpen.

Record:

13–18 (.419)

Pythagorean Record:

12–19 (4.23 R/G – 5.29 RA/G)

April MVP:

  • MacKenzie Gore (2–3, 3.51 RA/9, 7 GS, 41 IP, 13.0 K/9, .280 opp OBP, 1.0 RA9-WAR, 1.3 fWAR). For the “month” of March/April, he ranked first in MLB in strikeouts, second in K/9, and sixth in fWAR. I feel like this month marked his emergence as a potential ace pitcher. I’ll add a nod to Mitchell Parker, who also had an outstanding month with 1.1 RA9-WAR and 0.7 fWAR.

Position player of the month:

  • James Wood (.250/.360/.543, 9 HR, 19 R, 21 RBI, 3 SB, 2 CS, 136 PA, 151 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR). He was tied for second place in the NL for home runs and ranked 8th in slugging and 5th in isolated power.

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Jackson Rutledge (0-0, 2.61 RA/9, 7 G, 10⅓ IP, 12.2 K/9, .333 opp OBP, 3.57 RE24, 2 shutdowns, 0 meltdown, 0.2 RA9-WAR).

Worst month:

  • Eduardo Salazar (0–1, 9.24 RA/9, 14 G, 12⅔ IP, 7.8 K/9, .446 opp OBP, 8 of 10 inherited runners scored, –13.48 RE24, 3 shutdowns, 3 meltdowns, –0.2 fWAR). I note there was stiff competition for this recognition, including Josh Bell (43 wRC+, –0.7 fWAR), Lucas Sims (–8.84 RE24, –0.4 fWAR), and Colin Poche (–7.04 RE24, –0.2 fWAR).

Best start:

  • MacKenzie Gore (opening day – March 27, 7–3 loss to the Phillies at home) pitched 6 scoreless innings giving up 1 hit and no walks while striking out 13 for a game score of 83. He outpitched Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler, and left with the Nats holding a 1–0 lead. Sadly, the bullpen was unable to hold it. A nod also to the runner-up, Mitchell Parker, who on April 22 pitched 8 scoreless innings with a game score of 82 en route to a 7–0 victory.

Worst start:

  • Mitchell Parker (April 27, 8–7 win over the Mets at home) gave up 7 runs on 7 hits and 5 walks in 5 innings with no strikeouts for a game score of 22. When he left the game, the Nats were trailing 7–1, but the team rallied to score 5 runs in the seventh and 2 more in the ninth to walk off the Mets.

Tough losses:

  • Mitchell Parker (April 16, 6–1 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh) pitched 6 innings and gave up 1 run on 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 6 for a game score of 65.
  • Trevor Williams (April 17, 1–0 loss to the Pirates in Pittsburgh) pitched 5 innings and gave up 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 59.
  • MacKenzie Gore (April 24, 2–1 loss to the Orioles at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 8 for a game score of 63.

Cheap wins:

  • Trevor Williams (April 6, 5–4 win over the Diamondbacks at home), pitched 5 innings and gave up 3 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 49.

Biggest shutdown:

  • Jose A. Ferrer (April 20, 3–2 win over the Rockies in the first game of a doubleheader in Denver). When Ferrer was brought in in the bottom of the seventh, there was one out and a runner on first, and the Nats held a 3–2 lead. The first batter he faced grounded into a double play. He returned in the eighth for an additional scoreless inning, allowing one hit and striking out two. (Win probability added/WPA +.280).

Worst meltdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (April 29, 7–6 loss to the Phillies in Philadelphia). The Nats had rallied to score 4 runs in the top of the ninth and take a 6–5 lead, stunning the crowd in Citizens Bank Park. In the bottom of the inning Finnegan was called on to get three outs. The first batter he faced, Alec Bohm, singled to right field. That was followed with a walk to Bryson Stott. Bohm was able to advance to third on a flyball to deep center field for the first out. Stott then stole second. Another flyball to right field scored Bohm, tying the game, and allowed Stott to advance to third. Then a wild pitch to Trea Turner allowed Stott to score for the Phillies’ walk off win. (WPA –.800). 

Walk offs:

  • James Wood (April 25, 5–4 win over the Mets at home). The Nats entered the bottom of the ninth trailing the Mets 4–3. Dylan Crews led off with a triple to the right field wall that Juan Soto wasn’t able to handle and was driven home by a single from Jose Tena. The next two batters grounded into force plays at second base, leaving CJ Abrams at first with two outs, when Wood stepped to the plate. On a 3–2 count, Wood hit a groundball past the second baseman into center field for a single. The Mets were playing a deep no-doubles defense, so by the time the center fielder got the ball home, Abrams was sliding in to score the walk-off run. (WPA +.437)
  • Luis Garcia Jr. (April 27, 8–7 win over the Mets at home). The Nats had been behind 7–1 going into the bottom of the seventh but scored 5 runs to narrow their deficit to a single run. In the bottom of the ninth, Alex Call led off with a double. Jacob Young took his place as a pinch runner, and after advancing to third on a groundout, came home to tie the game on CJ Abrams‘s single. James Wood then drew a walk, advancing Abrams to second and bringing Garcia to the plate. Garcia grounded to first baseman Pete Alonso, but Alonso threw the ball over the head of the pitcher who was covering first, allowing Abrams to rush home and score the walk-off run on the error. (WPA +.294)

Clutch hit:

  • Nathaniel Lowe (April 29, 7–6 loss to the Phillies in Philadelphia). When Lowe came to bat in the top of the ninth, the Nats were down to their final out, trailing 5–3 but with runners on second and third. With a 1–2 count, Lowe reached down to hit a sweeper below the zone and smacked it into the right-field stands, putting the Nats ahead 6–5 (WPA +.694). Unfortunately, you can see the section on “Worst meltdown” to read about how the game ended.
  • The best clutch hit in a game the Nats actually won was also by Nathaniel Lowe (April 11, 7–4 win over the Marlins in Miami). Lowe was feeling under the weather and had been scratched from the starting lineup, but he told Davey Martinez that he was available as a pinch hitter if needed. In the top of the eighth, the Nats were trailing 4–2 but had the bases loaded with one out, and Martinez decided to take up Lowe on his offer. After a 10-pitch battle, Lowe lined one into the left field corner for a double, clearing the bases and giving the Nats a 5–4 lead. (WPA+.442)

Choke:

  • James Wood (April 9, 6–5 loss to the Dodgers at home). Trailing the Dodgers 6 to 5 in the bottom of the ninth, the Nats were down to their final out but had runners at second and third. Wood grounded out to second to end the game. (WPA –.240).

Memorable fielding plays:

Triple play:

  • Triple plays are rare, and on April 25, playing the Mets at home, the Nats turned one in the top of the fourth inning (their third in club history and their first at home). It certainly wasn’t a web gem. It appeared that the ball actually skipped into Nathaniel Lowe‘s glove and shouldn’t even have been called a catch. But the play wasn’t reviewable, so that was that. The Mets had runners on first and second with no outs. Jesse Winker hit a low line drive to Lowe, which (according to the umpire) he caught. Lowe then fired the ball to CJ Abrams, who touched second base as well as the runner who had advanced from first to complete a 3–6–6 triple play.
March 23, 2025 / Nat Anacostia

They continue to get better: The Nats’ 2024–2025 off season in review

As we get ready for opening day on Thursday, March 27, it’s a good time to review the trades, signings, and departures that took place over the off season. For the fourth consecutive year, the Nationals have stayed with low-cost options for restocking the team.

New players acquired

The team’s biggest acquisition came via a trade with the Texas Rangers. The Nationals acquired first baseman Nathaniel Lowe in exchange for Robert Garcia. The 29-year-old left-handed batter has appeared in the last six seasons for the Rangers, playing 686 games, and will remain under team control through 2026. Over the last three seasons, Lowe has averaged 153 games, .277/.360/.438, 20 home runs, 76 RBI, 122 Rbat+, and 2.9 bWAR. He won a Silver Slugger Award in 2022 and a Gold Glove in 2023 and was part of the 2023 World Series championship team.

Turning to free agent signings, Michael Soroka, a 27-year-old right-handed pitcher, signed a one-year contract for $9 million. Soroka had a monster rookie season for the Braves in 2019 when he went 13–4 with a 2.68 ERA, was named an All Star, and finished second in the Rookie of the Year contest and sixth in Cy Young voting. He was injured in 2020 with a torn Achilles tendon and missed the 2021 and 2022 seasons while recovering from that injury. In 2023 he pitched poorly in 7 games for the Braves and was traded to the White Sox for the 2024 season. With the South Siders, he pitched poorly in his first 9 games as a starter (6.39 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) and was moved to the bullpen, where he pitched very well (2.75 ERA, 1.22 WHIP). The Nats intend to use him as a starter and hope that his strong performance from the latter part of 2024 persists.

Josh Bell, age 32, returned to the Nationals as a DH after signing a one-year contract for $6 million. Bell, of course, played for the Nats in 2021 and 2022 before being sent to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto trade. Since then, he has played for the Guardians, Marlins, and Diamondbacks, in addition to the Padres. Over the last three seasons, Bell has averaged 150 games, .254/.336/.415, 19 home runs, 72 RBI, 110 Rbat+, and 0.7 bWAR. He won the Silver Slugger Award in 2022.

The Nats signed Jorge Lopez, age 32, as a right-handed reliever to a one-year contract for $3 million. Lopez has 9 seasons of major league experience with the Brewers, Royals, Orioles, Twins, Marlins, Mets, and Cubs. Over the last three seasons, Lopez has averaged 60 games, 3.74 ERA (110 ERA+), 4.33 FIP, 10 saves, and 0.7 bWAR. He was an All Star in 2022.

The Nats signed Lucas Sims, age 30, as a right-handed reliever to a one-year contract for $3 million. Sims has 8 seasons of major league experience with the Braves, Reds, and Red Sox. Over the last three seasons, Sims has averaged 44 games, 4.00 ERA (114 ERA+), 4.76 FIP, 2 saves, and 0.7 bWAR.

The Nats signed Amed Rosario, age 29, as a right-handed hitting utility infielder and outfielder to a one-year contract for $2 million. Rosario has 8 seasons of major league experience with the Mets, Guardians, Dodgers, Rays, and Reds. Over the last three seasons, Rosario has averaged 133 games, .275/.308/.389, 7 home runs, 54 RBI, 96 Rbat+, and 1.5 bWAR. In 2022 he led the major leagues with nine triples.

Paul DeJong, age 31, was signed as a right-handed hitting third baseman to a one-year contract for $1 million. DeJong, who was an All Star in 2019, has 8 seasons of major league experience with the Cardinals, Blue Jays, Giants, White Sox, and Royals, with most of it spent at shortstop (though he did play 41 games at third base last season). Over the last three seasons, DeJong has averaged 109 games, .205/.263/.372, 15 home runs, 40 RBI, 72 Rbat+, and 0.2 bWAR.

Toward the end of spring training, Colin Poche, age 31, was selected as a left-handed relief pitcher after he had signed a minor league contract and attended spring training as a non-roster invitee. He pitched for the Rays in four of the last six seasons (having missed the 2020 and 2021 seasons due to Tommy John surgery). Over the last three seasons, Poche has averaged 58 games, 3.27 ERA (121 ERA+), 4.16 FIP, 3 saves, and 0.7 bWAR.

Players re-signed

Two pitchers from the 2024 Nationals were re-signed by the team after they entered free agency. Trevor Williams, age 32, signed a two-year, $14 million deal. And Kyle Finnegan, age 33, who had elected free agency in November after the Nats did not tender him a contract in arbitration, re-signed with the team in late February for $6 million on a one-year contract.

Injuries

Josiah Gray, who underwent Tommy John surgery on July 24, was placed on the 60-day injured list. He will likely miss most of the 2025 season. Cade Cavalli, who had Tommy John surgery about a year ago, is closer to returning. He will probably open the season on the 15-day injured list and is expected to spend time rehabilitating in Florida before pitching with a minor league affiliate, probably in May. Mason Thompson is also on the 60-day injured list as he continues to recover from his second Tommy John surgery.

Andres Chaparro (left oblique strain), Zach Brzykcy (right quad), and Derek Law (right elbow) are likely to be on the 10-day or 15-day IL to open the season.

Departures

We bid adieu to several Nationals players:

  • Patrick Corbin left via free agency and has signed a one-year contract with the Texas Rangers. In Corbin’s first season with the Nats in 2019, he went 14–7 with a 3.25 ERA and won game 7 of the World Series. Over the next five seasons, however, he went 33–70 with a 5.62 ERA and was regularly one of the worst pitchers in the majors. I hope we can remember the former and not blame him too much for the latter.
  • Robert Garcia departed the Nats for the Texas Rangers in the Lowe trade. He pitched in 97 games for the Nats in 2023 and 2024 with a 4.04 ERA.
  • Jacob Barnes left via free agency and signed a minor league contract with the Toronto Blue Jays. He pitched in 63 games for the Nats in 2024 with a 4.36 ERA (93 ERA+).
  • Ildemaro Vargas elected free agency after the Nats designated him for assignment and has signed a minor league contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He played in 234 games for the Nationals from 2022 to 2024 with a .656 OPS.
  • Joey Meneses elected free agency after the Nats designated him for assignment and has signed a minor league contract with the New York Mets. He played in 286 games for the Nats from 2022 to 2024 with a .731 OPS.
  • The Baltimore Orioles claimed Thaddeus Ward on waivers. He pitched in 26 games for the Nats in 2023 with a 6.37 ERA as a Rule 5 draft pick, before spending the 2024 season with Rochester.
  • Joey Gallo elected free agency after the Nationals declined the 2025 option in his contract. He spent spring training with the White Sox as a non-roster invitee, but in late March he requested and was granted unconditional release and announced his intention to convert into a pitcher. He played in 76 games for the Nats in 2024 with a .613 OPS.
  • The Atlanta Braves claimed Amos Willingham on waivers. He pitched in 19 games for the Nats in 2023 and 2024 with a 7.11 ERA.
  • Joe La Sorsa signed a minor league contract with the Cincinnati Reds after he was released by the Nationals. He pitched in 39 games for the Nats in 2023 and 2024 with a 4.70 ERA.
  • Jordan Weems elected free agency and signed a minor league contract with the Atlanta Braves. He pitched in 124 games for the Nats from 2022 through 2024 with a 5.03 ERA.
  • Carter Kieboom elected free agency and signed a minor league contract with the Los Angeles Angels. He played in 133 games for the Nats over four seasons from 2019 through 2023 with a .598 OPS before spending the 2024 season with Rochester.
  • Jake Alu retired from professional baseball on January 16, 2025. He played in 51 games for the Nats in 2023 with a .571 OPS before spending the 2024 season with Rochester.

October 3, 2024 / Nat Anacostia

‘They fought hard all year long’: Nats’ September in review

The Nationals opened the month of September at home, playing the Cubs in the last game of a home stand. The Cubs won in a 14 to 1 blowout in which the Nats exhibited bad pitching and dreadful defensive play. With the rosters now expanded, Darren Baker (a 25-year-old utility player and the son of Dusty Baker) and Zach Brzykcy (a 25-year-old right-handed relief pitcher) both made their major league debuts in the ninth inning of the game. The Nats had drafted Baker in the 10th round in 2021, while Brzykcy had signed in 2020 as an undrafted free agent, then missed 2023 with Tommy John surgery. The Nats were swept by the Cubs in their three-game series and went 2–4 during the home stand.

The Nats’ next road trip took them first to Miami to play two games against the Marlins. They won the first game. In the second game they were unable to hold onto the lead after MacKenzie Gore took a potential perfect game into the sixth inning, and they were walked off in the 10th inning. Their next stop was Pittsburgh, where they had a four-game series against the Pirates. They lost the first game, then won both games of a Saturday doubleheader that had to be played after the Friday night game was rained out. DJ Herz pitched five no-hit innings in the opening game of the doubleheader, and in the nightcap, they rallied in the ninth inning to score four runs and take the lead. The next day the Nats lost the final game, splitting the series and giving them a 3–3 record on the road trip.

Travis Blankenhorn was designated for assignment and elected free agency, ending his tenure with the Nationals. Over his two seasons with the Nats, Blankenhorn played in 23 games and hit .145/.232/.210 with 1 home run and 6 RBI.

The next home stand opened with a two-game set against the Braves. In the first game, the Nats were shut out (the first of five shutout losses this month) in a 12–0 blowout. They came back to win the second game 5–1, splitting the series, with Jake Irvin carrying a no-hitter into the sixth inning. The Nats finished with an 8–5 record against the Braves, which was the first time since 2017 that they’ve won the seasonal battle against that division rival. The home stand concluded with a four-game series against the Marlins. The Nats lost the first game but won the next three, giving them an 11–2 seasonal record against the Fish. They were 4–2 on the home stand.

The first half of September had gone well for the Nationals, who had a 7–6 monthly record through September 15. In the second half of the month, the Nats faced tougher opponents and things started to go very badly.

Their road trip opened in New York against the Mets, who after a rough start in April and May had played very well and were tied with the Braves for second place in the NL East and the last playoff spot. In the first game, the Nats took a 1–0 lead into the bottom of the eighth but were unable to hold it and wound up losing 2–1 in the 10th inning. That was followed by two blowout losses in which the Nats were beat 10–1 and 10–0. The Nats’ seasonal record against the Mets was 2–11, which meant that the Nationals played a key role in the Mets making it to the postseason.

The Nats’ next series was four games in Chicago against the Cubs. They lost the first game 7–6 in a back-and-forth contest. In the second game, Trevor Williams returned to the mound for the first time since May 30 and pitched well, but the bats were hibernating and the Nats lost 3–1. The following morning came the shocking news that CJ Abrams was being optioned to Triple-A Rochester for “an internal issue”. Abrams was reported to have been out all night at a Chicago casino until 8:30 am before the day game that was played on the previous day. The demotion was controversial and was regarded as risky, with some commenters saying the matter should have been handled quietly without embarrassing the player, and others applauding Mike Rizzo for enforcing standards of discipline. The Nats won their next game 5–1, with Gore taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning before surrendering a home run. They were shut out 5–0 in the rain-delayed final game, lost the series three games to one, and recorded a 1–6 record on the road trip.

Their final home stand began with a three-game series against the Royals, who were fighting for a playoff spot. The first game was scoreless through nine innings, and the Nats lost 1–0 in ten, giving up the deciding run on an error. The next night they lost 3–0 for their third consecutive shutout. (The Nats had been shut out for three consecutive games only once before—in August 2018.) They managed to score in the final game of the series but still lost 7–4 in what seems likely to have been Corbin’s final start for the Nats, as the Royals swept the series.

The home stand and the season concluded with a three-game series against the NL East-champion Phillies, with Stone Garrett returning to the lineup, 13 months after breaking his leg in Yankee Stadium. In the first game, Garrett hit a 2-run home run in his first plate appearance back, as the Nats’ bats finally exploded, and they beat the Phillies in a 9–1 blowout. Facing Cy Young-candidate Zack Wheeler in the second game, the Nats outscored the Phillies 6–3 for their second win. The season’s final game was a 6–3 loss, but the Nats were battling to the end, having loaded the bases only to have the game end on a fly ball from Juan Yepez that was caught in front of the wall—a ball that if it had been hit in July might have produced a walk-off win. For the season, the Nats went 4–9 against the division champion Phillies.

The Nats’ record for September was 10–16, and their season record was 71–91, the same record as last season. The Nats finished 24 games behind the Phillies and 18 games behind the second-place Mets and Braves, who tied for the last wild card slot. In terms of the win-loss record, it may have been a disappointing season for the Nationals, but, looking at several young players beginning to establish themselves, I think it was a more hopeful season than any the Nationals have had since 2019.

Record:

10–16 (.385)

Pythagorean Record:

8–18 (3.31 R/G – 4.92 RA/G)

September MVP:

  • MacKenzie Gore (2–1, 3.14 RA/9, 5 GS, 28⅔ IP, 11.0 K/9, .229 opp OBP, 0.9 RA9-WAR).

Position player of the month:

  • James Wood (.248/.321/.446, 4 HR, 13 R, 10 RBI, 3 SB, 1 CS, 112 PA, 112 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR). September was a bad month for most of the Nationals hitters.

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Jose A. Ferrer (1-0, 2.20 RA/9, 13 G, 16⅓ IP, 6.6 K/9, .226 opp OBP, 4.81 RE24, 6 shutdowns, 1 meltdown, 0.6 RA9-WAR).

Worst month:

  • Jacob Barnes (0–1, 14.14 RA/9, 10 G, 7 IP, 9.0 K/9, .475 opp OBP, –9.76 RE24, 0 shutdown, 5 meltdowns, –0.6 RA9-WAR).

Best start:

  • MacKenzie Gore (September 21, 5–1 win over the Cubs in Chicago) pitched 7 innings giving up 1 run on 1 hit and 3 walks while striking out 9 for a game score of 77. The only hit he allowed was a solo home run hit by Patrick Wisdom with one out in the bottom of the seventh.

Worst start:

  • DJ Herz (September 18, 10–0 loss to the Mets in New York) gave up 7 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 3⅓ innings with 5 strikeouts for a game score of 22.

Tough losses:

  • Mitchell Parker (September 1, 14–1 loss to the Cubs at home) pitched 6 innings and gave up 4 runs (3 earned runs) on 7 hits and 1 walk while striking out 8 for a game score of 51.
  • Trevor Williams (September 20, 3–1 loss to the Cubs in Chicago) pitched 5 innings and gave up 1 run on 3 hits and no walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 64.
  • DJ Herz (September 25, 3–0 loss to the Royals at home) pitched 5 innings and gave up 1 run on 3 hits and 3 walks while striking out 3 for a game score of 57.

Cheap wins:

  • None

Biggest shutdown:

  • Jose A. Ferrer (September 24, 1–0 loss to the Royals in 10 innings at home). The game was a scoreless tie when Ferrer got the call to pitch the top of the eighth. He retired the side on two fly balls and a groundout, then was asked to go out again in the ninth. He got two strikeouts and a groundout to keep the game tied. (Win probability added/WPA +.245). Then, with Kyle Finnegan coming on for the tenth inning, the Royals’ automatic runner scored on an error, and the Nats lost when they were unable to plate a run.

Worst meltdown:

  • Derek Law (September 12, 6–3 loss to the Marlins at home). When Law got the call with one out in the top of the seventh, there was a runner on first and the Nats were ahead 3–2. On his first pitch he got a ground ball to shortstop for a double play, getting him out of the inning. It looked like it had been an easy and successful outing, but Law was asked to come back out for the eighth inning and proceeded to give up a double, a walk, and a single that tied the game. Then another single loaded the bases, and there were still no outs. On the next ground ball, the CJ Abrams conceded the go-ahead run to try for a double play, but after getting the force at second, Luis Garcia, Jr. made a bad throw and another runner scored. Davey Martinez pulled Law from the game with the Nats now down 5–3 with only one out. (WPA –.511). 

Walk offs:

  • None

Clutch hit:

  • Ildemaro Vargas (September 7, 8–6 win over the Pirates in the second game of a doubleheader in Pittsburgh). When Vargas was sent to the plate as a pinch hitter, the Pirates were ahead 6–5 with two outs in the top of the ninth, the Nats had runners at first and second, and Aroldis Chapman was trying to close out the game for the Pirates. On a 3–2 count, Vargas flicked the ball into right field. Connor Joe dove for the ball but wasn’t able to come up with it, and both runners scored to put the Nats ahead.  (WPA +.673).

Choke:

  • Andres Chaparro (September 19, 7–6 loss to the Cubs in Chicago). The Nats were behind 7 to 6 in the top of the ninth, but after James Wood stole second, they had runners on second and third with two outs. Chaparro then hit a fly ball to left field for the final out. (WPA –.200).

Memorable fielding plays:

September 4, 2024 / Nat Anacostia

‘They’re going to have to learn’: Nats’ August in review

Since the trade deadline, the Nationals have gone all-in on giving their young players chances to play. Several players have made their debuts in July and August, and most of the lineup now consists of players ages 26 and younger, several of whom are rookies. The team is making mistakes and learning. They went 12–15 in August, ending the month with a 61–75 record and in fourth place in the NL East.

The Nats began the month of August at home, where they opened a 10-game homestand with a three-game series against the Brewers, who were leading the NL Central. The series began with a loss—the Nats’ fifth in a row—but it was followed by two victories, including a close 4–3 win in the finale. Next came the Giants, who were still in playoff contention. The Nats dropped three games out of four to the team from the city by the bay.

The homestand concluded with a three-game series against the Angels, and Washington fans welcomed back Anthony Rendon in his first return to DC to play the Nats since leaving as a free agent after the 2019 World Series. The Nats took two games of three, with both of the victories coming as walk-offs in the tenth inning. The second walk-off hit came from Jose Tena, who was making his debut with the Nats. The 23-year-old Dominican third baseman, acquired two weeks earlier in the Lane Thomas trade, had played 21 games for the Guardians in 2023 and 2024. The Nats went 5–5 in the homestand.

The Nats didn’t have to travel far for their next road trip, which consisted of two games in Baltimore against the AL East leading Orioles followed by four in Philadelphia against the NL East leading Phillies. In the first game, the Nats routed the AL East-leading Orioles 9 to 3, with the offense led by Andres Chaparro, who marked his major league debut by hitting three doubles, tying the record for most extra-base hits in a major league debut with seven other players. Chaparro is a 25-year-old Venezuelan first baseman/DH who was acquired from the Diamondbacks in the Dylan Floro trade. Also making his major league debut in that game was 26-year-old right-handed reliever Orlando Ribalta (born in Cuba but raised in Miami), who the Nats had selected in the 12th round of the 2019 draft. The next night the Nats lost their second game against the Orioles, splitting the series.

In their first game against the Phillies, the Nats were blown out 13 to 3. Their second game was much closer as the Nats rallied in the top of the ninth to tie the game, but they were walked off in the bottom of the inning. They also lost the third game but avoided a sweep by winning the final game. They went 2–4 on the road trip. In other roster moves, the Nats released 29-year-old DH Harold Ramirez, who had hit .243/.273/.365 in 25 games for the Nats, and Derek Law went on the injured list with a right elbow flexor strain.

Next came a three-game homestand against the Rockies followed by a three-game road trip to Atlanta to play the Braves. The Nats lost the opener to the Rockies but won the other two games. In the third game, Patrick Corbin was credited with his 100th career win. In Atlanta, the Nats lost their first two games before winning the finale. The loss in the first game came in the 10th inning by a score of 3 to 2 when CJ Abrams made a bad throw to first on what should have been a routine third out on a grounder to short. Alex Call went on the injured list after suffering a partial tear of the plantar fascia in his left foot.

Back in Washington, the Nationals first faced the Yankees, who had pulled ahead of the Orioles in the AL East race. The Nats called up 22-year-old right fielder Dylan Crews, who was the Nats’ first-round pick in the 2023 draft (No. 2 overall) and was rated as the No. 3 overall prospect by MLB Pipeline, to make his major league debut. Crews went 0 for 3 his first night but went 4 for 8 in the next two games, including a home run and a double. The Nats lost game one to the Yankees but won games two and three, largely shutting down the big bats of Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton.

The month concluded in the first two games of a three-game series in which the Nats were hosting the Cubs. The Nats lost both games by narrow margins in games in which they battled, but also sometimes played sloppily.

Record:

12–15 (.444)

Pythagorean Record:

13–14 (4.15 R/G – 4.44 RA/G)

August MVP:

  • Luis Garcia, Jr (.341/.385/.534, 4 HR, 14 R, 12 RBI, 6 SB, 0 CS, 96 PA, 155 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR). Garcia wins this category for the second month in a row.

Pitcher of the month:

  • DJ Herz (1-3, 3.72 RA/9, 6 GS, 29 IP, 10.9 K/9, .293 opp OBP, 0.7 RA9-WAR). He also wins this category for the second month in a row.

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Eduardo Salazar (0-1, 0.60 RA/9, 13 G, 15 IP, 7.8 K/9, .274 opp OBP, 6.89 RE24, 4 shutdowns, 0 meltdown, 0.6 RA9-WAR).

Worst month:

  • Robert Garcia (0–2, 9.26 RA/9, 14 G, 11⅔ IP, 9.3 K/9, .333 opp OBP, –4.78 RE24, 0 shutdown, 5 meltdowns, –0.5 RA9-WAR).

Best start this month:

  • Patrick Corbin (August 27, 4–2 win over the Yankees at home) pitched 6 scoreless innings giving up 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 72. Taking account of the bats in the opposing lineup—the Yankees lead the majors in wRC+, and Judge and Soto rank as numbers 1 and 2 in that category—I consider this to have been Corbin’s most impressive start since the 2019 World Series.

Worst start:

  • Mitchell Parker (August 15, 13–3 loss to the Phillies in Philadelphia) gave up 9 runs on 10 hits and 2 walks in 3+ innings with 6 strikeouts for a game score of 7.

Tough losses:

  • DJ Herz (August 14, 4–1 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore) pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 59.
  • DJ Herz (August 20, 3–1 loss to the Rockies at home) pitched 5⅔ innings and gave up 3 runs (2 of which were earned) on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 52.

Cheap wins:

  • MacKenzie Gore (August 6, 11–5 win over the Giants at home) pitched 5 innings and gave up 5 runs (4 of which were earned) on 8 hits and 2 walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 37. The Nats had scored 8 runs by the time he left the game.

Biggest shutdowns:

I’m calling this one a tie between two eerily similar scenarios:

  • Kyle Finnegan (August 9, 3–2 win over the Angels in 10 innings at home). Trailing 2 to 1 going into the bottom of the eighth, the Nats tied the game with two one-out singles followed by a sacrifice fly. Finnegan then got the call in the top of the ninth to keep the game tied. He retired all three batters on a strikeout followed by two flyball outs. In the bottom of the ninth, the Nats drew a walk but failed to score, so Finnegan went back out to pitch the top of the tenth. He got two groundouts to third base, then walked the third batter he faced. Then Finnegan struck out the fourth Angels batter, Anthony Rendon, to retire the side without allowing either the automatic baserunner or the batter who had been walked to score (Win probability added/WPA +.450). The Nats scored in the bottom of the inning to walk off the Angels.
  • Derek Law (August 10, 5–4 win over the Angels in 10 innings at home). Similar to the previous night’s game, the Nats scored 2 runs in the bottom of the seventh to tie the score at 4 runs apiece. In the top of the ninth, Law got the call to keep the game tied. He got a groundout, then gave up a one-out double. That was followed by two flyball outs, and he was out of the inning with no runs scored. In the bottom of the ninth, the Nats were set down in order, and Law went back out for the top of the tenth. He retired the first batter on a groundball back to the pitcher. He retired the second batter on a strikeout and the third on a popfly, and the automatic runner did not score (WPA +.450). The Nats scored in the bottom of the tenth to walk off the Angels again.

Worst meltdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (August 8, 9–5 loss to the Giants in 10 innings at home). Finnegan got the call in the top of the ninth with the score tied 2–2. He got the first batter on a groundout, then gave up a single and a walk. The runners pulled off a double steal, then Finnegan walked another batter, filling the bases. He got a strikeout for the second out and then faced Mark Canha. Canha shot the ball down the right field line, driving in two runners. Alex Call made a bad throw home and Finnegan wasn’t backing up the play, which allowed a third runner to score (WPA –.465). Robert Garcia was called in to get the third out. The Nats then rallied to score 3 runs in the bottom of the inning, sending the game to the tenth, but Garcia surrendered 4 runs in the top of the tenth for the loss.

Walk offs:

  • Alex Call (August 9, 3–2 win over the Angels in 10 innings at home). With the score tied 2–2 entering the bottom of the tenth, Jacob Young was the automatic runner. Nasim Nuñez hit a sacrifice bunt, advancing Young to third. Call then hit a line drive that got by the second baseman to drive in Young and give the Nats the walk-off win. (WPA +.172)
  • Jose Tena (August 10, 5–4 win over the Angels in 10 innings at home). It was Tena’s first game playing for the Nats. CJ Abrams went into the game as a pinch runner to replace the automatic runner and advanced to third on a wild pitch. Then Tena drove the next pitch to the bullpen wall in deep left-center, driving in Abrams for the walk-off win. (WPA +.067)

Clutch hits:

  • Luis Garcia, Jr (August 8, 9–5 loss to the Giants in 10 innings at home). When Garcia came to bat with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, there were runners on first and second and the Nats were trailing 5–2.  On a 1–2 pitch, Garcia launched a high fly ball into the left field corner, and it cleared the fence to tie the game (WPA +.493). The Nats, however, lost the game in the tenth inning.
  • CJ Abrams (August 6, 11–5 win over the Giants at home). The Nats were trailing 4–2 and there were runners at first and second and one outs in the bottom of the second when Abrams came to bat. Abrams got on top of a fastball that was several inches above the top of the zone and clobbered it into the right field bleachers, giving the Nats a 5–4 lead. (WPA +.255)

Choke:

  • Juan Yepez (August 11, 6–4 loss to the Angels at home). The Nats were trailing 6 to 4, but they had the bases loaded with one out when Yepez came to bat in the bottom of the ninth. Yepez grounded into a double play to end the game (WPA –.334).

Memorable fielding plays:

August 7, 2024 / Nat Anacostia

‘This is a tough time for players’: Nats’ July in review

I regret my tardiness with this month-in-review post.

Entering July, the Nationals were 8th in the race for the 3 wild card slots and 4 games behind in the race for the last one. During July, they fell further back and became sellers on July 14 when they traded away Hunter Harvey. By the July 30 trade deadline, Jesse Winker, Lane Thomas, and Dylan Floro had also departed. The Nats ended up going 10–16 in July, their worst monthly record so far this season, and ended the month with a 49–60 record, 16½ games behind in the NL East race and 9 games behind in the race for the last wild card slot. In other words, any lingering playoff hopes had died by the end of July.

What went wrong this month? Hitting was not the main problem–the Nats’ OPS was .720 in July, up from .668 in the first three months, and runs per game was up from 4.1 to 4.7. But while the hitters did well on average, there were many games where they struggled—the Nats were shut out five times in July, with the last shutout coming from a no-hitter dealt by Dylan Cease.

The Nats’ main problem was pitching. It began with the starting pitching, which had been great in May and June when the starters’ ERA had been 3.62 and they had averaged 16.4 outs per game. In July, the starters’ ERA was 6.23 and they averaged only 14.8 outs per game. That put pressure on the relief staff, who were responsible for getting an average of 11.8 outs per game (up from 10.0 in May and June). The relievers performance also suffered, and their ERA went up from 4.01 in May and June to 5.08 in July.

Despite the poor results, most of the games (outside of a handful of blowouts) were competitive and exciting baseball, with a number of come-from-behind victories and losses.

July began with a four-game series at home against the Mets. The first game featured the debut of James Wood, the highly rated 6’7″ 21-year-old left-handed outfielder who came to the Nats in the 2022 Juan Soto trade. During July, Wood impressed us with his hard contact and base path speed even as he worked to adapt to major league pitching and playing left field, where he had little experience.

The first two games against the Mets both went to extra innings. And both games ended in losses for the Nats with the bullpen collapsing in the top of the 10th inning of each game. They allowed a total of 11 10th-inning runs in the two games. In the third game, the Nats came back from a 5-run deficit to win the game with Wood driving in the go-ahead run. And in the final game, the Nats won 1–0 behind Jake Irvin‘s masterful 8-inning start.

As the Nats turned to their next series—four games against the Cardinals—Josiah Gray was placed on the 60-day injured list and would undergo Tommy John surgery on July 24. The Nats were also clearing out roster space by letting go of veterans who had not performed. Eddie Rosario was released (and then signed by the Braves) to make space for Wood. Joey Meneses was optioned to Rochester and replaced by Juan Yepez, a 26-year-old right-handed minor league free agent who had played parts of two seasons for the Cardinals. Nick Senzel was released and replaced by Trey Lipscomb.

The Cardinals series began with another extra-inning game, a 7–6 loss in 11 innings. The Nats came back the next day to win a 14–6 blowout but lost the next two games, including a shutout loss in the final game. The Nats lost the series 3 games to 1 and were 3–5 over the homestand.

A road trip followed, beginning with three games against the Mets in New York. The Nats lost all three and were shut out and blown out in a 7–0 loss in the final game. They did better in the next series against the Brewers in Milwaukee, winning the first two games, with the second game featuring a come-from-behind effort, before losing the third game. Eduardo Salazar, a 26-year-old right-handed reliever who had 9 games experience with the Reds and Dodgers and had been selected off waivers, made his Nats debut during the series. The Nats went 2–4 on the road trip and were ready for the All-Star break.

Before the Milwaukee series had ended, some big news arrived that Hunter Harvey had been traded to the Kansas City Royals. Because Harvey was under team control through 2025, Mike Rizzo was able to negotiate a good return, with the Nats receiving 22-year-old third base prospect Cayden Wallace, who would be ranked as the Nats’ # 7 prospect by MLB Pipeline, as well as the Royals’ competitive balance pick in the upcoming draft (the # 39 overall pick), with which the Nats selected catcher, Caleb Lomavita. That draft selection was made after the Nats had used their regular first round pick (# 10 overall) to select shortstop, Seaver King. Their second-round pick (# 49 overall) went to another shortstop, Luke Dickerson.

At the All-Star game, the Nats were represented by CJ Abrams and Kyle Finnegan (who was an injury replacement added to the team less than 24 hours before the start of the game). Abrams struck out in his only plate appearance, and Finnegan didn’t appear in the game, as the National League lost 5 to 3.

Returning from the All-Star break, the Nats opened their homestand with a three-game series against the Reds. They swept the series, with the team rallying late to win the second and third games despite their game-2 starter having been knocked out early. Jose A. Ferrer was reinstated from 60-day injured list, where he had been since March with a left lat strain. Next came a three-game series against the Padres, which went very badly. The Nats were shut out in the first game, lost the second in a 12–3 blowout, and then were no-hit by Dylan Cease in the final game. Their record for the homestand was 3–3.

The month concluded with a road trip, with three games each in St. Louis and Phoenix. They won the first two games against the Cardinals, with their second victory coming as a 14–3 blowout, before getting walked off in the final game. Against the Diamondbacks, they lost a heartbreaker in the first game, as they entered the bottom of the ninth with an 8–4 lead but surrendered 5 runs for another walk-off loss. The second game was a disaster, a 17–0 blowout loss that set several team records. And the Diamondbacks concluded a sweep by beating the Nats 5–4 in a game in which the Nats tried to come back but ultimately fell short. They ended the road trip with a 2–4 record and ended the month with a four-game losing streak.

The end of the month coincided with the trade deadline. Jesse Winker went to the Mets, with the Nats obtaining in return a 24-year-old right-handed pitching prospect, Tyler Stuart, who now ranks 16th among Nats prospects. Alex Call was called up to take Winker’s place in the outfield. Lane Thomas, who was also under control through the end of 2025, was traded to the Guardians for three prospects, featuring 19-year-old left-handed pitcher, Alex Clemmey, who was a second-round pick in 2023. Clemmey is now ranked sixth among Nats prospects. The Nats also received a 19-year-old shortstop, Rafael Ramirez, Jr., who now ranks 22nd. Dylan Floro was traded to the Diamondbacks (and literally just had to walk over to the other clubhouse before the second game of the Nats-D’backs series) for a Triple-A infielder. Some followers of the team were surprised that Kyle Finnegan was not traded, though he still has another season-and-a-half left before he reaches free agency.

Record:

10–16 (.385)

Pythagorean Record:

9–17 (4.65 R/G – 6.15 RA/G)

July MVP:

  • Luis Garcia, Jr (.333/.375/.573, 4 HR, 10 R, 15 RBI, 4 SB, 1 CS, 80 PA, 159 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR).

Pitcher of the month:

  • DJ Herz (0-2, 4.50 RA/9, 4 GS, 20 IP, 11.7 K/9, .284 opp OBP, 0.3 RA9-WAR). He pitched well enough in 3 of his 4 starts that the team should have won with ordinary offensive and bullpen support, which is better than I can say for any of the other starters this month.

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Robert Garcia (2-1, 4.26 RA/9, 14 G, 12⅔ IP, 10.7 K/9, .275 opp OBP, 1.40 RE24, 5 shutdowns, 2 meltdowns, 0.1 RA9-WAR).

Worst month:

  • Jordan Weems (0–0, 8.38 RA/9, 7 G, 9⅔ IP, 8.4 K/9, .431 opp OBP, –6.74 RE24, 0 shutdown, 3 meltdowns). On July 26 his terrible month came to an end when he went on the injured list with shin splints.

Best start this month:

  • Jake Irvin (July 4, 1–0 win over the Mets at home) gave up 1 hit and 1 walk in 8 scoreless innings while striking out 8 for a game score of 87. That’s the highest game score by a Nats pitcher since August 31, 2019, when Stephen Strasburg had a game score of 92 after striking out 14 while giving up 2 hits and no walks in 8 scoreless innings in a 7–0 victory over the Marlins.

Worst start:

  • Patrick Corbin (July 30, 17–0 loss to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix) gave up 11 runs on 13 hits in 3 innings with 3 strikeouts for a game score of –6. (At least he didn’t walk anyone!) That game set several Nationals records, including the most runs surrendered by a Nats pitcher (surpassing seven pitchers who were tied at 10 runs apiece) and the largest run deficit (surpassing a 16-run deficit in 24–8 loss to the Padres on July 16, 2021). Corbin’s game score of –6 is also the worst ever recorded by a Nats pitcher, passing Jeremy Guthrie who had a game score of –4 on April 8, 2017, when he gave up 10 runs in a start that only lasted ⅔ inning in what would be the final game of his career.

Tough losses:

  • Mitchell Parker (July 8, 6–0 loss to the Cardinals at home) pitched 7 innings, giving up 2 runs (1 of which was unearned) on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 6 for a game score of 64.
  • DJ Herz (July 23, 4–0 loss to the Padres at home) pitched 5 innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 for a game score of 51.
  • Patrick Corbin (July 25, 3–0 loss to the Padres at home) pitched 7 innings, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks while striking out 7 for a game score of 61. Corbin had the misfortune to be facing Dylan Cease, who dealt the Nats a no hitter, only the second time the Nats have been no hit.

Cheap wins:

  • None

Biggest shutdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (July 13, 6–5 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee). By the end of the first inning, this game looked like another disaster for the Nats. Starter Mitchell Parker wasn’t able to make it through the first inning, and the Nats trailed 5–0. But for the next seven innings the bullpen kept the Brewers from scoring and the Nats offense gradually came back, finally taking a 6–5 lead in the top of the ninth. Finnegan got the call in the bottom of the ninth and got a fly out, gave up a walk, got a weak ground out fielded by the catcher, Keibert Ruiz, and closed the game with a fly out that Lane Thomas was able to corral at the wall. (Win probability added/WPA +.205).

Worst meltdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (July 29, 9–8 loss to the Diamondbacks in Phoenix). This game was sort of the opposite of the last one. The Nats scored 5 in the first inning and through 6 innings led 8–2. The Diamondbacks tacked on a couple more runs in the 7th and 8th, but the Nats held an 8–4 lead when Finnegan got the call in the bottom of the ninth. Finnegan gave up a triple, a single, and a home run to the first three batters he faced, and suddenly the lead was down to 8–7. He got an out on a line drive hit to center field but then gave up a single and faced Corbin Carroll with one out and a runner on first. Carroll socked Finnegan’s 0–1 pitch over the right field fence for a walk-off home run. (WPA –.981).

Walk off:

  • None

Clutch hits:

  • CJ Abrams (July 13, 6–5 win over the Brewers in Milwaukee). When Abrams came to bat with one out in the top of the ninth, the Nats were trailing 5–4 and Luis Garcia, Jr was at second base.  Abrams crushed a 99-mile-per-hour fastball into the second deck, giving the Nats the lead.  (WPA +.590)
  • James Wood (July 21, 5–2 win over the Reds at home). The game was tied 2–2 with runners at first and second and two outs in the bottom of the eighth when Wood came to bat. Facing a lefty who was brought in to get him out, Wood launched the first pitch into the left-field seats for his second major league home run, giving the Nats a 5–2 lead. (WPA +.377)
  • Jacob Young (July 26, 10–8 win over the Cardinals in St. Louis). With two outs in the top of the tenth, the bases were loaded, but the score was still 6–6 when Young came to bat. He drove a 2–0 pitch over the glove of the right fielder for a bases-clearing triple, giving the Nats a 9–6 lead (WPA +.547). They would go on to win 10–8.

Choke:

  • Juan Yepez and Nasim Nuñez (July 5, 7–6 loss to the Cardinals at home). Going into extra innings tied 5–5, the Cardinals had scored one in the top of the tenth and the Nats had drawn even in the bottom of the inning. There was one out with Nasim Nuñez at second and Luis Garcia, Jr at first when Yepez came to bat. Nuñez and Garcia executed a double steal, seeming to have removed the threat of a double play. Alas, when Yepez lined out to the second baseman, Nuñez had wandered too far from third and was doubled off (WPA –.346). The Nats would lose the game 7–6 in the eleventh inning.

Memorable fielding plays:

July 4, 2024 / Nat Anacostia

‘We’re doing OK’: Nats’ June in review

The Nationals opened June possessing a 26–30 record, in third place in the NL East. Their performance in June was streaky—they twice endured four-game losing streaks but also won 8 of 9 in the middle of the month. For the month as a whole, they went 13–14 and ended with a 39–44 record, returning to fourth place in the NL East after the Mets passed them in the standings on June 25. They trailed the division-leading Phillies by 15½ games. They were 4 games behind in the race for the last wild card slot, but that placed them behind four other teams that were just 2 to 3 games behind in the closely fought race. Fangraphs gave them only a 1.3% chance of making the playoffs.

The Nats opened the month in Cleveland where they played the last two games of their series against the Guardians (having lost the first game). They split the games and lost the series 2 games to 1, giving them a 4–3 record on the road trip.

At home, the Nats had three games against the Mets followed by four against the Braves. The Mets swept the Nats, with the home team getting blown out 9 to 1 in the final game of the series. Trevor Williams went on the injured list with a flexor muscle strain, and DJ Herz, a 23-year-old left-hander who had been acquired from the Cubs last year in the Jeimer Candelario trade, was called up to start the second game of the series and make his major league debut. Against the Braves, the Nats lost the first game (making four straight losses), then came back to win the last three, giving them a 3–4 record on their home stand.

The Nats next had a short, one-city road trip to Detroit. They won the first two against the Tigers, giving them five straight wins (their longest winning streak since June 2021), before losing the third game. Joey Gallo went on the injured list with a left hamstring strain.

Back home, they faced the Marlins and swept them, with the first game an 8 to 1 blowout and the second game a 4 to 0 shutout that is discussed below.  Next, the Nats faced the Diamondbacks. They lost the first game but won the second. At that point (June 19), the Nats’ record was 36–37 and they were tied with the Cardinals for the second and third wild-card slots. There were, however, a bunch of other teams, such as the Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants, Mets, and Cubs, within a game behind, so the Nats would be unable to hold their position in the wild card race. They lost game three to the Diamondbacks and finished their homestand with a 4–2 record.

Next came a long, three-time-zone road trip that began in Colorado against the Rockies. They split the first two games—wild, high scoring games of the type we have come to expect at elevation—before winning a 2 to 1 pitchers’ match in the third game. The Nats’ loss in the second game came in a unique manner, with MLB’s first-ever walk-off pitch clock violation charged against Kyle Finnegan.

Their next stop was San Diego, where the Nats faced the Padres in a three-game series. The Nats called up Harold Ramirez, a 29-year-old right-handed DH/1B who had played 6 seasons for Miami, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay before being released by the Rays in mid-June. The Nats suffered a heart-breaking loss in the 10th inning of the first game and went on to be swept by the Padres, though all of the games were competitive. They ended the road trip in Tampa Bay, where the Rays won two of the three games.

The month ended with anticipation as it became known that James Wood would make his major league debut on July 1. With Wood’s promotion came the release of the struggling Eddie Rosario.

Record:

13–14 (.481)

Pythagorean Record:

13½–13½ (4.37 R/G – 4.37 RA/G)

June MVP:

  • CJ Abrams (.373/.464/.663, 4 HR, 18 R, 16 RBI, 6 SB, 5 CS, 97 PA, 215 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR). CJ ranked third in MLB in wRC+ for June, third in OBP, fifth in SLG, and sixth in batting average.

Pitcher of the month:

  • Jake Irvin (4-1, 2.31 RA/9, 6 GS, 35 IP, 8.2 K/9, .287 opp OBP, 1.4 RA9-WAR)

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Jacob Barnes (1-0, 2.77 RA/9, 11 G, 13 IP, 6.2 K/9, .294 opp OBP, 3.67 RE24, 0 shutdown, 1 meltdown, 0.2 RA9-WAR)

Worst month:

  • Eddie Rosario (.191/.200/.250, 0 HR, 5 R, 6 RBI, 70 PA, 22 wRC+, –0.7 fWAR). Rosario was the Nats’ worst player in April, their best position player in May, and back to their worst player in June (swapping places each time with CJ Abrams). On July 1 he was designated for assignment to make room on the roster for the promotion of James Wood, and two days later he was released.

Best start this month:

  • DJ Herz (June 15, 4–0 win over the Marlins at home) struck out 13 in 6 scoreless innings, allowing just one hit and no walks for a game score of 83 in his first career win (and third start). That’s the highest game score by a Nats pitcher since May 8, 2021, when Max Scherzer also had a game score of 83, having struck out 14 and given up 1 run in 7⅓ innings against the Yankees in a game that the Nats ultimately lost 4–3 in 11 innings. Herz and Stephen Strasburg are the only pitchers in modern baseball history to have pitched a 13-strikeout, zero-walk game as one of their first three games.

Worst start:

  • MacKenzie Gore (June 3, 8–7 loss to the Mets at home) gave up 6 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks in 4⅓ innings with 2 strikeouts for a game score of 23. Gore left the game in the top of the fifth with the Nats ahead 4 to 3, but the bases were loaded, and Dylan Floro allowed all three inherited runners to score along with one of his own.

Tough losses:

  • Mitchell Parker (June 1, 3–2 loss to the Guardians in Cleveland) pitched 5⅔ innings, giving up 3 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 50.
  • Mitchell Parker (June 28, 3–1 loss to the Rays in Tampa Bay) pitched 5 innings, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 5 for a game score of 51.

Cheap wins:

  • None

Biggest shutdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (June 11, 5–4 win in 10 innings over the Tigers in Detroit). The Nats had tied the game at 4 runs apiece in the top of the 8th, and the game went to extra innings. With two outs in the bottom of the ninth and runners on first and second, Finnegan got the call to relieve Hunter Harvey. He struck out the pinch hitter, Colt Keith, to send the game to extra innings. The Nats scored the go-ahead run on a sacrifice fly in the top of the tenth, then Finnegan went back out to pitch the bottom of the tenth. He got a groundout to shortstop that didn’t advance the automatic runner followed by two strikeouts to win the game. (Win probability added/WPA +.559).

Worst meltdown:

  • Hunter Harvey (June 24, 7–6 loss in 10 innings to the Padres in San Diego). The Nats had battled back from a 3–0 deficit to tie the game in the seventh inning, and the game went to extra innings tied 3–3. In the top of the tenth, Keibert Ruiz hit a double and Nick Senzel hit a home run to give the Nats a 6–3 lead, and Harvey got the call to close it in the bottom of the tenth. He gave up a double and a single, and the Nats’ lead was down to a single run. That was followed by a walk and a sacrifice bunt, putting the tying and go-ahead runs on second and third with one out. A foul popup put Harvey one out away from closing it. He issued an intentional pass to Luis Arraez, then Jurickson Profar hit a line drive to the right-center gap for a walk-off 7–6 win. (WPA –.914).

Walk off:

  • None

Clutch hit:

  • Jesse Winker (June 19, 3–1 win over the Diamondbacks at home). There were two outs, a runner at first, and the D-backs were ahead 1–0 when Winker came to bat in the bottom of the sixth. He launched one into the red seats in center field, giving the Nats a 2–1 lead. (WPA +.351) The Nats went on to win 3–1.

Choke:

  • Drew Millas (June 3, 8–7 loss to the Mets at home). The Nats went into the bottom of the ninth trailing the Mets 8–5. But after a walk, a hit batter, a fly out that advanced the runner, a couple of singles, and a sacrifice fly, the score was 8–7 and the Nats had runners on first and third with two outs. Millas came to bat with an opportunity to tie the game, but he took strike 3 to end it. (WPA –.204)

Memorable fielding plays:

June 28, 2024 / Nat Anacostia

A surprise Nats selection for my 2024 NL all-star team

It’s time for my annual selection of an NL all-star team. To ensure that the selections are based on merit, I use formulas based on WAR (wins above replacement) to make my selections.* For the second year in a row, none of the Nationals were among the 20 best position players or 12 best pitchers in the league. But as with the actual All Star Team, every team in the league is represented, so I have methods to make selections from the teams that otherwise wouldn’t be represented. This year, those teams were the Rockies, Pirates, and Nationals.

*My formulas use a player’s 2024 WAR, 2023 WAR and career WAR to come up with a point total that is used to determine the selections. The system is laid out in my 2022 post, though this year I’m making a minor modification to the weights used for combining the WAR statistics, which is described in a technical appendix at the end of this post.

How did I pick the Nats player for my team? I look at players in three buckets—position players, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers—then compare the top-ranked Nats player in each bucket to the last player selected in each bucket. For position players, the top-ranked Nat was CJ Abrams with 13.0 points. That represents 60% of the total points of the last position player selected to the all-star team on merit (Elly De La Cruz with 23.3 points). Despite the considerable progress that Abrams has made with the bat this year, he’s below average as a fielder and the NL is loaded with good shortstops. It’s hard to argue that he should jump past players like Willy Adames, Ha-Seong Kim, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson, all of whom rank ahead of Abrams in WAR-based points yet weren’t able to qualify for the team.

Turning to starting pitchers, the highest-ranking Nat was Trevor Williams with 14.8 points, which was 67% of the total for the last SP to make my team. (Williams, of course, is injured, but I’ve decided to ignore injury status in making my selections because it is hard to predict which players might be back on the active roster before the All Star Game.) Williams was having a really good season, but because my method also pays attention to his performance last season and over his career, he only ranks 17th in points among NL starting pitchers.

So, my selection to represent that Nats on my all-star team is going to be a relief pitcher. And… drum roll… the honor goes to Dylan Floro! Yes, Floro comes out ahead of the closer, Kyle Finnegan, and the setup man, Hunter Harvey. Floro leads the Nats’ relief staff in ERA with 2.15 (compared with 2.23 for Finnegan and 3.49 for Harvey). He’s also ahead of them in FIP (fielding independent pitching, based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed) with 2.47 compared to 2.98 for Harvey and 4.02 for Finnegan.) For the NL as a whole, Floro ranks 13th among relief pitchers in Fangraphs WAR (which is based on FIP) and 12th in RA9-WAR (which is based on runs allowed per nine innings). In overall points, Floro’s 7.9 is 73% of the total for the last relief pitcher to make my team on merit, which makes him my 2024 all-star team selection.

Here are my all-star team selections with their total points in parentheses. (Note that for outfielders, I treat corner outfielders (COF) as interchangeable, so I pool the left and right fielders and select the four with the most points. But I consider center field (CF) to be a skill set that must be represented on the team, so the two best center fielders are selected separately.)

Starters

C – William Contreras (23.3)

1B – Freddie Freeman (33.7)

2B – Ketel Marte (26.0)

3B – Austin Riley (19.5)

SS – Mookie Betts (35.2)

COF – Ronald Acuña Jr. (25.5)

COF – Fernando Tatis Jr. (22.3)

CF – Cody Bellinger (16.3)

DH – Shohei Ohtani (34.9)

SP – Zack Wheeler (25.9)

Reserves

C – Will Smith (21.7)

1B – Bryce Harper (30.4)

2B – Nico Hoerner (16.3)

3B – Alec Bohm (17.9)

SS – Francisco Lindor (29.5)

SS – Elly De La Cruz (23.3)

SS – Ezequiel Tovar (17.0) (*selected so the Rockies would be represented)

COF – Christian Yelich (21.7)

COF – Brandon Nimmo (21.6)

CF – Corbin Carroll (15.2)

DH – Marcell Ozuna (20.6)

SP – Ranger Suárez (25.9)

SP – Sonny Gray (24.6)

SP – Logan Webb (23.4)

SP – Chris Sale (23.0)

SP – Reynaldo López (22.1)

SP – Mitch Keller (17.3) (*selected so the Pirates would be represented)

RP – Bryan Hudson (13.8)

RP – Matt Strahm (11.1)

RP – Tanner Scott (10.9)

RP – Jeff Hoffman (10.8)

RP – Dylan Floro (7.8) (*selected so the Nationals would be represented)

Technical Appendix – changes to weights

If I had used the same formula as last year, I would have calculated the points for each player with this:

Points = 4 * 2024_WAR + 2 * MAX(2023_WAR, 2024_WAR) + Squareroot(Career_WAR)

The formula combines the players WAR for this year, last year, and his career to obtain a total. It is a weighted average, with a weight of 4 for this year, 2 for last year, and 1 for the square root of his career WAR.

I noticed last year, however, that the formula was giving a little bit too much weight to the previous year and career performance and a not quite enough to this year’s performance. I didn’t want to be like a lot of writers and just ignore previous performance (since singular focus on year-to-date statistics can lead to some pretty bad selections), but I did want to make sure the selected players were all making positive contributions in the current year. So I slightly increased the weight for this year and slightly lowered the weights for the previous performance, while still having the total weights add up to 7:

Written as an equation, this year’s formula is:

Points = 4.4 * 2024_WAR + 1.8 * MAX(2023_WAR, 2024_WAR) + 0.8 * Squareroot(Career_WAR)

That’s the formula I used this year and plan to use going forward.

June 3, 2024 / Nat Anacostia

‘You try to minimize damage as best you can’: Nats’ May in review

The Nats opened May with a 14-15 record, in fourth place in the NL East, 5½ games behind the division-leading Braves. After going 12–15, they finished the month with a 26–30 record, in third place in the division, 13 games behind the division leading Phillies (who had gone 20–7 in May to supplant the Braves). The Nats’ pitching was surprisingly good, with a 3.45 team ERA during May (6th of 30 teams) and a 3.80 fielding independent pitching (FIP), which ranked 10th in MLB. Their offense, however, was weak. They ranked 27th in wRC+ with 84.

The Nats began the month in Texas, where they had already lost the first game of a three-game series against the defending World Series champions, the Rangers. They won game two 1–0, then were shutout 6–0 in the rubber game. The Nats returned from their road trip with a 5–2 record, having swept the Marlins in a four-game series to start the trip.

They began their next homestand playing the Blue Jays and took the series two games to one. The brief homestand concluded with a two-game “Battle of the Beltways” against the Orioles, who possessed the best record in the American League. The Nats won the first game 3–0, moving them above the .500 mark for the first time since July 1, 2021. They lost the second game 7–6 in a nail biter that saw the Nats rally to tie the game in the ninth inning and again in the 11th inning before finally falling to the O’s in the 12th.

The Nats opened their next road trip in Boston, where a 5–1 victory over the Red Sox again bumped them above .500. At that point, Fangraphs showed the Nats having a 1.7% chance of making it to the playoffs – a small but hopeful number for a team that had been given only a 0.2% chance at the beginning of the season. Alas, from there the trend was downhill. The Nats lost games two and three to the Red Sox. Moving on to Chicago, their first game against the White Sox was rained out, but they split a double header the next day before losing the third and final game. Their two losses in Chicago were both shutouts, with seven shutout innings in the first one coming at the hands of former Nat Erick Fedde, whose career had been rejuvenated by a year pitching in Korea. The road trip concluded in Philadelphia. The first two games were tight, with the Nats losing the first one 4–2 and the second 4–3 (in 10 innings). But the red-hot Phillies easily won the finale 11–5. In all, the Nats were 2–7 on the road trip and had dropped to 12½ games behind in the divisional race.

Back in Washington, the Nats faced the Twins. Their offense finally exploded in the first game, which they won 12–3, but they lost the second game just as decisively, 10–0. They also lost game three 3–2. They next faced the Mariners, who held first place in the AL West. The Nats took two games out of three, giving them a 3–3 record on their short homestand.

Going back on the road, the Nats played a four-game series in Atlanta. The Nats’ pitching did a great job holding the Atlanta offense at bay, limiting them to 9 runs over the series, which the Nats won three games to one. The month concluded with the Nats in Cleveland, where they lost the first game of a three-game set against the Guardians, who were in first place in the AL Central.

Four players who had been on the injured list at start of the month returned to the active roster during May. Robert Garcia and Victor Robles returned on May 7, Joey Gallo returned on May 17, and Lane Thomas returned on May 27. Robles did not impress on his return, hitting just .130/.222/.130 in 28 plate appearances during May, so when Thomas came off the injured list, Robles was designated for assignment to make room. On June 1, the Nats released Robles, ending a relationship that had begun almost 11 years earlier when a 16-year-old Robles had signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2013. In 8 seasons with the Nationals, Robles hit .236/.311/.356, with 31 home runs, 156 RBI, and an 80 wRC+ in 530 games. He never achieved the promise he had shown as a prospect, with the exception of the 2019 season when he played well as a 22-year-old rookie and helped the Nats win their championship.

Record:
12–15 (.444)

Pythagorean Record:
13–14 (3.89 R/G – 4.04 RA/G)

May MVP:

  • Trevor Williams (3-0, 2.40 RA/9, 6 GS, 30 IP, 8.4 K/9, .268 opp OBP, 1.2 RA9-WAR)

Position player of the month:

  • Eddie Rosario (.253/.319/.530, 6 HR, 17 R, 17 RBI, 6 SB, 0 CS, 92 PA, 139 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR). Rosario was named NL Player of the Week for the week of May 6 to 12, when he hit .467/.600/1.133 with 3 home runs, a double, 5 BB, 7 R, 5 RBI, and was 3 for 3 in SB in 5 games,

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Hunter Harvey (1-0, 1.84 RA/9, 14 G, 14⅔ IP, 9.2 K/9, .259 opp OBP, 5.98 RE24, 0.66 WPA, 8 shutdowns, 1 meltdown, 0.6 RA9-WAR)

Worst month:

  • CJ Abrams (.205/.216/.304, 2 HR, 10 R, 9 RBI, 1 SB, 2 CS, 116 PA, 43 wRC+, -0.6 fWAR). Last month, Abrams was the most valuable position player and Rosario had the worst month. This month, they saw their roles switch.

Best start this month:

  • Jake Irvin (May 28, 2–0 loss to the Braves in Atlanta) pitched 6 scoreless innings, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10 for a game score of 76. He left with the game still a scoreless tie, but Jacob Barnes gave up 2 runs for the loss.

Worst start:

  • Patrick Corbin (May 21, 10–0 loss to the Twins at home) gave up 8 runs on 9 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings with 3 strikeouts for a game score of 22.

Tough losses:

  • Jake Irvin (May 4, 6–3 loss to the Blue Jays at home) pitched 5 innings, giving up 4 unearned runs on 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4 for a game score of 52.
  • MacKenzie Gore (May 12, 3–2 loss to the Red Sox in Boston) pitched 6 innings, giving up 3 runs (1 of them unearned) on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9 for a game score of 57.
  • Jake Irvin (May 22, 3–2 loss to the Twins at home) pitched 6⅓ innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and no walks while striking out 6 for a game score of 61.
  • Patrick Corbin (May 31, 7–1 loss to the Guardians in Cleveland) pitched 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out 5 for a game score of 54. He left the game with the Nats trailing 2 to 1, only to watch the bullpen surrender 5 more runs.

Cheap wins:

None

Biggest shutdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (May 8, 7–6 loss in 12 innings to the Orioles at home). The Nats had tied the game at 3 to 3 in the bottom of the 9th when Finnegan got the call to pitch the top of the 10th. He got a strikeout, walked the second batter, then got a pop-up and a groundout to keep the game scoreless, never letting the automatic runner advance beyond second base. (Win probability added/WPA +.314). Unfortunately, the Nats were also held scoreless in the bottom of the 10th. In the 11th, each team scored two runs, and in the 12th the Orioles were able to score two while the Nats only scored one.

Worst meltdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (May 18, 4–3 loss in 10 innings to the Phillies in Philadelphia). Going into the ninth inning, the game was tied at two runs apiece, but the Nats scored a run in the top of the ninth to take a 3 to 2 lead. In the bottom of the inning, Finnegan got two groundouts, leaving him one out away from the save, but then Kody Clemens hit a home run to tie the game. The next Philly batter reached on an error, then Finnegan got another groundout to get out of the inning with the game tied. The Nats failed to score in the top of the 10th, and Finnegan went back to the mound in the bottom of the 10th to try to keep the game tied. Finnegan issued an intentional walk to Kyle Schwarber, then Realmuto hit a fly ball that advanced the automatic runner to third. Bryce Harper then hit a sacrifice fly for the Phillies to win the game. (WPA –.478).

Walk off:

None

Clutch hits:

  • CJ Abrams (May 26, 9–5 loss to the Mariners at home). Abrams came to bat with two outs in the bottom of the seventh, runners on second and third, and the Nats trailing 4–2. Abrams launched one down the right field line and watched to see if it would go fair. It bounced off the foul pole to the fair side, and Abrams rounded the bases, with the Nats now holding a 5–4 lead. (WPA +.506) The lead did not hold up, though, as the bullpen surrendered a tying run in the top of the eighth and 4 more in the top of the ninth, for a 9–5 loss.
  • Luis Garcia, Jr. (May 3, 9–3 win over the Blue Jays at home). Garcia came in as a pinch hitter with no outs in the bottom of the seventh, runners on first and second, and the Nats trailing 3–1. He knocked one over the center field fence, and the Nats took a 4–3 lead. (WPA +.392) They would keep adding on for a 9–3 victory.

Choke:

  • Nick Senzel (May 8, 7–6 loss in 12 innings to the Orioles at home). Senzel came to bat with no outs in the bottom of the 12th with a runner at second and the Nats trailing 7–6. He struck out. (WPA –.165) After two more outs via fly balls, the Nats had lost, despite having rallied in both the ninth and the 11th innings to tie the game.

Memorable fielding plays:

May 2, 2024 / Nat Anacostia

‘It’s nice to win games in April’: Nats’ April in review

Expectations were low as the Nationals entered the 2024 season. For example, the final Fangraphs forecast before the start of the season saw the Nats winning 65 games, placing them below every other team but the Rockies and giving them a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. Nevertheless, with several major prospects, such as James Wood and Dylan Crews, expected to make the team later in the season, things felt more hopeful than they had the last couple of seasons.

The season opened in Cincinnati on March 28 (this “April in review” article also covers the three games the Nats played in March), and the Nats fell to the Reds, 8 to 2. During batting practice before the game, Nick Senzel, who had been in the lineup to debut for the Nats against his former team, suffered a broken thumb and would go on the injured list rather than playing. Trey Lipscomb, age 23 and the Nats’ third round draft pick in 2022, was called up to replace Senzel and made his major league debut playing third base in game 2. The Nats rallied from a 6 to 4 deficit in the top of the ninth and won game 2, 7 to 6, with the go-ahead run scored by another Nats player making his major league debut, Rule 5 draftee Nasim Nuñez, who came into the game as a pinch runner. Lipscomb and Nunez both stole bases, which was only the third time in MLB history that two players debuting in the same game both stole bases. In game 3, Lipscomb homered in the seventh inning to give the Nats the lead, but the bullpen was unable to hold it, so the Nats lost the series two games to one.

Back in Washington for their home opener against the Pirates, the bullpen again failed them, and they lost the game 8 to 4. They split the next two games to lose the series two games to one. Victor Robles strained his left hamstring in game 2 and would spend the rest of the month on the injured list. They next hosted the Phillies, and the series began inauspiciously when Aaron Nola and the Phillies’ bullpen shut out the Nats. They lost the second game but came back to win game 3 in a 3-2 squeaker. They were 2-4 for the homestand.

On April 6, word came that the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg had reached an agreement that allowed him to retire from baseball, and he issued a note of appreciation to fans and team. For a retrospective appreciation of his career, I really like this article by Michael Baumann from Fangraphs.

The Nats then traveled to the west coast for 9 games. They opened the road trip in San Francisco, where they trounced the Giants 8 to 1 in the first game. Josiah Gray went on the injured list, but Joan Adon pitched well as his replacement, and the Nats won the second game, before falling to the Giants in the third. They then crossed the Bay Bridge to Oakland for their next series. They lost two games to the A’s (both by one-run margins) and won one. The final series of the road trip was against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. When Gray’s slot in the rotation rolled around again, this time 24-year-old left-hander Mitchell Parker got the call to make his major league debut in Dodger Stadium on Jackie Robinson day. The Nats had drafted Parker in 2020 in the fifth round and he had not been highly touted on the prospect lists. But Parker became the first Nationals starter to win his major league debut since Strasburg in 2010, with 17 Nats starters having made winless debuts over that time. While doing so, he struck out Betts twice, as well as Ohtani. The Nats lost the second game but shut out the Dodgers the third, giving the Nats their second series win and a 5-4 record on the road trip.

Returning home, the Nats had a 5-year anniversary celebration for the 2019 championship team taking place during their next series against their World Series foes, the Astros. Twelve players from the team were in attendance, and several who were now playing for other teams sent greetings. The Nats lost the first game but won the last two, with Parker and the bullpen shutting out the Astros in the finale. They next hosted the Dodgers, who swept the three-game series from the Nats. The Dodgers trounced the Nats 11 to 2 in the second game, but the Nats managed to keep the third game close in a 2 to 1 loss. Lane Thomas went on the injured list with an MCL sprain in his left knee.

The Nats finished the month on the road. They had a four-game series against the Marlins in Miami and managed to sweep it. In the third game, they fell behind 7 to 0 early before starting a comeback in the fourth inning. (The game came exactly nine years after the “Dan Uggla game” when the Nats came back from a 10 to 2 deficit to beat the Braves on Uggla’s home run.) On the last day of April, the Nats opened a series in Texas against the Rangers and lost the game.

They finished the month with a 14-15 record, in fourth place in the NL East, 5½ games behind the division-leading Braves. It was their best April record since 2017 (the last time they had a winning record in the month of April). The pitching was better than expected, with a 4.31 team ERA (22nd of 30 teams) and a 3.47 fielding independent pitching (FIP), which ranked 4th in MLB. On the offensive side, they ranked second in stolen bases with 53, and 20th in wRC+ with 96.

In addition to the players we’ve already mentioned, several other players made their debut with the Nationals during March and April. On opening day, Jessse Winker, Joey Gallo, Eddie Rosario, Dylan Floro, and Matt Barnes made their debuts. Derek Law made his debut in game two, while Nick Senzel‘s injury delayed his debut until April 15. All of these players are discussed in my article on the off season. Also joining the team (on April 23) was Jacob Barnes, a 34-year-old right-handed reliever who had signed a minor league contract. He had 8 previous years of major league experience with the Brewers, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Tigers, Yankees, and Cardinals, with a 4.76 ERA in 265 games.

Record:
14–15 (.483)

Pythagorean Record:
13–16 (4.07 R/G – 4.45 RA/G)

April MVP:

  • CJ Abrams (.295/.373/.619, 7 HR, 22 R, 17 RBI, 7 SB, 2 CS, 119 PA, 171 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR). Abrams is starting to get recognized as one of the best shortstops in baseball.

Pitcher of the month:

I’m calling this one a tie between:

  • Trevor Williams (2-0, 2.70 RA/9, 5 GS, 26⅔ IP, 6.4 K/9, .277 opp OBP, 0.9 RA9-WAR)
  • MacKenzie Gore (2-3, 3.19 RA/9, 6 GS, 31 IP, 11.0 K/9, .332 opp OBP, 0.9 RA9-WAR
  • Honorable mention goes to Mitchell Parker (2-0, 1.69 RA/9, 3 GS, 16 IP, 7.9 K/9, .242 opp OBP, 0.8 RA9-WAR)

Relief pitcher of the month:

  • Dylan Floro (0-0, 0.64 RA/9, 13 G, 14 IP, 7.7 K/9, .273 opp OBP, 6.30 RE24, 0.40 WPA, 2 shutdowns, 0 meltdown, 0.5 RA9-WAR)

Worst month:

  • Eddie Rosario (.088/.137/.162, 1 HR, 4 R, 3 RBI, 2 SB, 1 CS, 73 PA, -17 wRC+, -0.9 fWAR)

Best start this month:

  • Mitchell Parker (April 21, 6–0 win over the Astros at home) pitched 7 scoreless innings, giving up 3 hits and no walks while striking out 8 for a game score of 79. And he did it while only throwing 73 pitches! It was a highest game score by a Nats pitcher since June 13, 2021, when Joe Ross pitched 8 scoreless innings against the Giants.

Worst start:

  • Jake Irvin (April 24, 11–2 loss to the Dodgers at home) gave up 6 runs on 12 hits and 1 walk in 4⅔ innings with 3 strikeouts for a game score of 18.

Tough losses:

  • Jake Irvin (April 6, 5–2 loss to the Phillies at home) pitched 6 innings, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 5 for a game score of 50.
  • MacKenzie Gore (April 25, 2–1 loss to the Dodgers at home) pitched 6 innings, giving up 1 run on 7 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 for a game score of 56. He had the bad luck to be pitching against Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
  • MacKenzie Gore (April 30, 7–1 loss to the Rangers in Arlington, Texas) pitched 5 innings, giving up 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7 for a game score of 55.

Cheap wins:

  • None

Biggest shutdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (April 20, 5–4 win over the Astros at home). The Nats had tied the game in the bottom of the 9th, and Finnegan got the call to keep Jose Altuve, the automatic runner, from scoring. Yordan Alvarez grounded out to second while advancing Altuve to third. Then Bregman hit a short fly ball into foul territory down the right field line. Making a gutsy decision, Lane Thomas caught the ball rather than letting it drop, then threw a perfect strike to the plate to get Altuve by a couple of steps. Okay, maybe Finnegan should share this honor with Thomas. (Win probability added/WPA +.314).

Worst meltdown:

  • Kyle Finnegan (March 31, 6–5 loss to the Reds in Cincinnati). The Nats were ahead 5 to 3 when Finnegan got the call to get the last three outs in the bottom of the ninth. He got the first two outs on a lineout to right field followed by a lineout to third base. Then he gave up a double to India, followed by a home run to Benson, tying the game. The next Reds batter, Encarnacion-Strand, then hit a home run for the walk-off win. (WPA –.891).

Walk off:

  • Joey Meneses (April 20, 5–4 win over the Astros at home) led off in the bottom of the tenth with the score tied 4 to 4 and Nasim Nuñez on second as the designated runner. Joey hit the first pitch into the right-center gap, driving in Nuñez for the walk-off win.

Clutch hits:

  • Jesse Winker (April 12, 2–1 loss to the A’s in 10 innings in Oakland). Winker led off the top of the ninth with the Nats trailing 1-0. He launched a 3-2 slider over the right-field fence to tie the game. (WPA +.347) It turned out not to be enough, as the A’s won it in the bottom of the 10th.
  • Nick Senzel (April 28, 12–9 win over the Marlins in Miami). Senzel had already hit a two-run homer in the fourth inning to bring the Nats within two runs. When he came to bat in the top of the fifth, there were two outs, the Nats were trailing 7–6, and the Nats had runners on first and third. Jacob Young stole second, and then Senzel blasted a sinker into the center field stands. (WPA +.338)

Choke:

  • CJ Abrams (April 12, 2–1 loss to the A’s in 10 innings in Oakland). In the top of the 10th with the game tied at one run apiece, Abrams led off with Trey Lipscomb as the automatic runner. Abrams grounded to first for a 3–5 double play, as Lipscomb imprudently tried to advance to third. (WPA –.254)

Memorable fielding plays:

March 28, 2024 / Nat Anacostia

Biding Time: The Nats’ 2023–2024 off season in review

Since winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals have been modest in their off-season aspirations. This year, that has been especially true.

New players acquired

Going into the off season, their areas of need were considered to be first base/DH, third base, left field, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They managed to acquire new personnel in each of these areas except for starting pitching. They signed three major league free agents—Joey Gallo, Dylan Floro, and Nick Senzel. They also selected four players who signed as minor league free agents—Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker, Matt Barnes, and Derek Law, and picked up Nasim Nuñez, a young infielder with no major league experience, in the Rule 5 draft, who will all be part of the team’s opening day roster.

Joey Gallo brings a left-handed bat and home-run power, two areas in which the Nats need to improve. Gallo is 30 years old and has mostly played corner outfield and first base. It looks like he will mostly play first base and DH for the Nats. He’s an extreme three-true-outcomes player who strikes out a ton, but when he doesn’t strike out, he manages to hit home runs and draw plenty of walks. Over 9 seasons with the Rangers, Yankees, Dodgers, and Twins, he’s played 863 games and hit .197/.323/.466 with 198 home runs, a 109 wRC+ and 15.7 fWAR. Unlike some other low-average sluggers such as Adam Dunn and Kyle Schwarber, Gallo has been an above average outfielder and at least average as a first baseman, which has helped him stick around with a batting average that has regularly dipped below the Mendoza line. Gallo’s last good season was 2021. He signed for $5 million plus incentives.

Dylan Floro is a 33-year-old relief pitcher who, over 8 seasons, has pitched 330 games for the Rays, Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Marlins, and Twins. He was consistently successful from 2018–2022 and has 32 career saves, having closed for a couple of seasons with Miami. His career ERA is 3.42 (124 ERA+) with a 3.09 career FIP. However, last season he struggled with a 4.76 ERA (though his FIP was 2.96). He signed for $2.25 million.

Nick Senzel is a 28-year-old utility player who mostly played outfield (especially center field) for the Reds but will play third base for the Nats. He was a first-round draft pick (second overall) in 2016 but struggled over 5 seasons with the Reds and was ultimately non-tendered, allowing the Nats to sign him. His career averages are .239/.302/.369 with 33 home runs in 377 games. His career wRC+ is 77 and he has –0.8 career fWAR. Both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs say that he’s been a below average fielder. Frankly, he’s never had a good season. He signed for $2 million and comes with another year of team control if the Nats decide to hold onto him.

Eddie Rosario joined the Nationals as a late non-roster invitee. He’s a 32-year-old left-handed left fielder and has 9 years of major league experience with the Twins, Indians/Guardians, and Braves. His career line is .268/.305/.460 and has 159 home runs in 1,030 games. His career wRC+ is 102 and he has 13.4 career WAR. He’s mostly been an average fielder. His last really good season was in 2020, though he had a really nice run the Braves in late 2021 after they acquired him at the trade deadline. He wound up being named the MVP of the NLCS that year. His contract pays him $2 million plus incentives.

Jesse Winker is a 30-year-old left-handed left fielder with 7 years of experience with the Reds, Mariners, and Brewers. Over 610 career games he hit .264/.369/.444 with 81 home runs. His career wRC+ is 121, his career fWAR is 6.4, and he’s been a below average fielder. His last really good season was 2021. Given that Rosario, Winker, and Gallo are all left-handed so you can’t platoon them*, it’s a bit odd that the Nats decided to hold onto all three. Given his age, I’d give the odds to Winker (over Rosario) as the player who might put up a season that’s worth something at the trade deadline.

*Though a left-field platoon with Stone Garrett becomes a possibility when he finishes his rehab from last season’s leg fracture.

Matt Barnes is a 33-year-old right-handed relief pitcher with 10 years of big-league experience (9 of them coming with the Red Sox before spending last season with the Marlins). He has 47 career saves, his career ERA is 4.13 (110 ERA+), and his career FIP is 3.62 in 453 career games. His last season was a rough one, missing quite a bit of time with a hip injury and earning only a 5.48 ERA in 24 games. But his FIP was 4.15, suggesting some bad luck, and this season he seems to be healthy.

Derek Law is another 33-year-old right-handed relief pitcher. He has 7 years experience with the Giants, Blue Jays, Twins, Tigers, and Reds. His career ERA is 4.08 (107 ERA+), and his career FIP is 4.24 in 247 games. Last season his ERA was 3.60 in 54 games with the Reds.

Nasim Nuñez is a 23-year-old infielder that the Nats picked up from the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft. He apparently is a gifted fielder and has mostly played shortstop. His highest previous level is Double-A, where he had a .627 OPS last season, so the consensus is that he isn’t really ready to hit major league pitching. That, of course, may be a problem because for the Nats to retain him, they need to keep him on the major league roster all season (or else offer him back to the Marlins). So, we can expect to see him as a pinch runner and defensive replacement but not getting many plate appearances. We’ll see if the Nats decide he’s worth keeping on the roster all season.

I don’t usually talk about changes to the coaching and front office staff, but I think it’s worth mentioning a couple of old Nats players. Gerardo Parra will be the first base coach, and Sean Doolittle is serving as the team’s pitching strategist, a newly created position in which he will be working with pitchers, coaches, and analytical staff.

Injuries

A couple of pitchers suffered injuries during spring training and will start the season on the 60-day injured list. Mason Thompson had to have his second Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire season. Jose A. Ferrer suffered an upper back strain (teres major muscle) that put him on the 60-day IL. From last season, Cade Cavalli continues his Tommy John recovery and also opens the season on the 60-day IL, with an expected return date of June. And Stone Garrett was able to play in spring training but is still recovering from last season’s broken leg and will start the season rehabbing in Florida.

Departures

We bid adieu to a number of players from last season’s team:

  • Carl Edwards Jr. left via free agency and spent spring training with the Cubs as a non-roster invitee. He wasn’t selected and is currently a free agent. Over two seasons with the Nats he pitched in 89 games with a 3.07 ERA (133 ERA+) and 4 saves.
  • Victor Arano elected free agency and remains a free agent. He pitched in 43 games for the Nats in 2022 with a 3.86 ERA but lost the entire 2023 season to injury that ultimately led to shoulder surgery in June.
  • Michael Chavis was granted free agency and has signed on with the Mariners organization on a minor league contract. He played 48 games for the Nats last season with a .622 OPS.
  • Hobie Harris was granted free agency and is now with the Twins organization on a minor league contract. He pitched in 16 games for the Nats last season with a 5.12 ERA.
  • Blake Rutherford was granted free agency and apparently remains unsigned. He had a .366 OPS in 16 games with the Nats last season.
  • Cory Abbott was granted free agency and is with the Mariners organization on a minor league contract. Over the last two seasons he pitched 38 games for the Nats, including 9 starts, and had a 5.87 ERA.
  • Andres Machado was released by the Nationals and is now pitching for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan. Over three seasons with the Nats he had a 4.03 ERA in 135 games.
  • Jeter Downs was lost to the Yankees on a waiver claim. He played 6 games for the Nats last year.
  • Dominic Smith was granted free agency and spent spring training with the Cubs as a non-roster invitee. He wasn’t selected and is currently a free agent. He played 153 games for the Nats last season with a .692 OPS.
  • Derek Hill was granted free agency and is now with the Rangers organization on a minor league contract. He played 13 games for the Nats last year with a .411 OPS.
  • Anthony Banda elected free agency and is with the Guardians organization on a minor league contract. He pitched in 10 games for the Nats last year with a 6.43 ERA.