It’s been a long winter – it’s time to play ball again! I haven’t been posting this winter, but I have been reading. Here are a few links from this winter’s hot stove league that I’d like to remember:
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs argues that the Nats’ trade for Denard Span was the best transaction of this off-season.
- Lots of writers provide their evaluations of the MLB teams, and many times the Nats have come out at or near the top. The Nats got an “A” on this report card from David Schoenfield of ESPN.com.
- In another article, Schoenfield asks if the Nationals could be a 105-win team this season. He concludes that it’s possible, as long as they meet five key conditions.
- Grant Brisbee of SB Nation asks, Are the Nationals as good as everyone says they are? Not surprisingly, his answer revolves around the question of how Bryce Harper develops as a player.
- Turning to more traditional research and analysis, Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs finds that Gio Gonzalez loves to face other pitchers—in fact, his entire increase in strikeout rate from 2011 to 2012 is accounted for by his 72% strikeout rate against opposing pitchers in the NL.
- On a lighter note, after Michael Morse was traded to the Mariners, Dan Steinberg of the Washington Post‘s Sports Bog gave us this nice photographic retrospective of the Beast’s contributions to our collective memories of Nationals baseball.
The Nationals have reportedly signed closer Rafael Soriano to a 2-year, $28 million deal. About a week ago, the Washington Post’s Adam Kilgore speculated that signing Soriano might make sense for the Nationals.
Statistically speaking, what sort of pitcher is our new closer? In looking forward, I think it’s important to look at a pitchers’ record over more than one year, so from Fangraphs I pulled up the list of all pitchers who’ve thrown at least 80 innings in relief over the last three seasons—208 pitchers in all (representing about seven pitchers per team,the size of the average MLB bullpen). How does Soriano rank relative to this group?
1. In terms of ERA, he’s in the top tier, but not one of the elite pitchers. His 2.50 ERA ranks 23rd, which is good, but well behind the top five: Kimbrel (1.46), O’Flaherty (1.59), Romo (1.85), Rivera (1.87), and Adams (2.06).
2. He doesn’t fare nearly as well in terms of FIP (3.28 which ranks 64th of 208), or xFIP (3.80, which ranks 104th).
3. His numbers over the last three years aren’t too dissimilar from the other guys in the Nats’ bullpen:
- for ERA, Craig Stammen (2.81),Tyler Clippard (2.82), Ryan Mattheus (2.84), and Drew Storen (2.96)
- for FIP, Storen (3.13), Clippard (3.22), Stammen (3.37), and Mattheus (4.37)
- for xFIP, Storen (3.46), Stammen (3.53), Clippard (3.63), and Mattheus (4.48).
While the Nats’ bullpen doesn’t have the elite arms that the Braves have, these are four good, above-average arms, along with a solid average arm in Mattheus.
4. Soriano’s numbers should be helped by moving from the AL to the NL and, especially, by moving away from Yankee Stadium. In 2012, his opponents’ on-base percentage was .317 at home versus .255 on the road; in 2011 his opponents’ OBP was .355 at home versus .271 on the road. For slugging, the splits were .397 (H)/.307 (R) for 2012 and .390 (H)/.242 (R) for 2011.
5. If the Nationals don’t trade one of their relievers (and there’s no reason that they should), Christian Garcia appears to be the odd man out. On the other hand, I expect he will still have opportunities to fill in with the Nats as injuries arise.
With first Edwin Jackson, and now John Lannan having departed the Nats and no obvious candidates in the minors, except for the possibility of converting Christian Garcia to a starter, the next hole for Mike Rizzo to fill is a fifth starter. In an earlier post I looked at possible trade targets. With the recent trade for Denard Span, however, the Nats’ minor league system is starting to look pretty thin, so I think the chances of filling the pitching vacancy through a free agent signing have gone up. In this post, I’m going to look at the starters who are available as free agents, specifically focusing on pitchers who are pretty good. I assume that if Rizzo had wanted a league-average innings eater, he would have retained Lannan.
Here’s my list, starting at the top and working down. I give each pitcher’s statistics while starting for the last three seasons (2010–12) along with FanGraph’s “crowd sourced” estimate of how much the contract will cost:
1. Zack Greinke (age 29 next season, 3.83 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 8.7 K/9, 604 IP)
Estimated cost: $114 million for six years
Health issues: Social anxiety disease and depression; a fractured rib in 2010–11 offseason
He’s the best and most expensive pitcher on the market; he’s also frequently been linked to the Nats, though Tom Boswell claims that “the Nats barely consider it, assuming insane L.A. money will keep him an Angel or Dodger.” I still don’t have a good sense of what salary budget the Nats are working with, but if they were to sign Greinke, they’d be getting the best rotation in baseball.
2. Anibal Sanchez (age 29, 3.70 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 8.1 K/9, 587 IP)
Estimated cost: $52 million for four years
Health issues: Elbow surgery in 2003; labrum surgery in 2007; shoulder problems in 2009; healthy the last three seasons
I haven’t seen his name linked to the Nats, but he’s a pitcher I’d like to see Rizzo pursue. He’s a strikeout pitcher who would nicely complement the Nationals staff.
3. Edwin Jackson (age 29, 4.11 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 597 IP)
Estimated cost: $36 million for three years
Health issues: None
In contrast to Adam LaRoche, I’ve heard no speculation that the Nats have any interest in re-signing Jackson. But I think he does bring some advantages to the table compared to the other pitchers on this list—especially his health and relative youth. I wouldn’t have a problem with re-signing Jackson for three more years.
4. Dan Haren (age 32, 3.76 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 7.6 K/9, 649 IP)
Estimated cost: $36 million for three years
Health issues: On the DL briefly last season for “lower back stiffness” and rumors of more serious issues that have made the Angels surprisingly willing to let him go. Thinking about it, though, maybe there’s something similar going on with Edwin Jackson—the Nats seemed surprisingly uninterested in retaining him.
5. Kyle Lohse (age 34, 3.76 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 5.6 K/9, 491 IP)
Estimated cost: $52 million for four years
Health issues: Forearm injury in 2009; surgery in 2010
While Lohse pitched great last season and the Nats are rumored to have interest, I’d be concerned about signing him, especially to a four-year deal. Last season was by far his best, and over his career he’s barely been an average pitcher. Last season’s success reflected a .262 batting average on balls in play. That number is likely to revert to something closer to his career average (.297).
6. Ryan Dempster (age 36, 4.04 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 8.4 K/9, 590 IP)
Estimated cost: $36 million for three years
Health issues: Tommy John surgery in 2003; on the DL briefly in 2012 with a lat injury; otherwise, quite healthy
While a 3-year contract to a 36 year-old pitcher seems a bit risky, he’s been pretty healthy and pitched well last year—at least until he was traded to the Rangers at the deadline.
7. Shaun Marcum (age 31, 3.62 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 7.5 K/9, 520 IP)
Estimated cost: $20 million for two years
Health issues: Tommy John surgery in 2008; on DL for two months in 2012 with elbow injury
The recent injuries make signing him a bit of a gamble.
After that, we start getting to marginal guys like Joe Saunders, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Blanton – I suppose they’d be ok as fifth starters, but if that’s all the Nats are shooting for, I’d rather have seen Lannan brought back. Overall, this year’s free agent pitcher crop just doesn’t seem that exciting. The ones I’d be pursuing are the top two—Greinke, if they can afford him, and Sanchez, with Dempster as the backup plan (though I really don’t like giving 3-year contracts to 36 year-old pitchers). The others just seem to have too many question marks regarding health or consistency.
It was an exciting day for the Nationals and the NL East, as the Nats traded their top pitching prospect Alex Meyer to the Twins for Denard Span, with the trade coming less than 24 hours after the Braves signed B.J. Upton as a free agent. How do the two center fielders compare?
Here are their stats from FanGraphs over the last three seasons (2010–2012):
Span Upton
G 351 453
HR 9 69
BB% 8.5% 9.7%
SO% 10.9% 26.2%
Avg .271 .242
OBP .334 .317
SLG .367 .436
wOBA .313 .328
wRC+ 95 109
Fld 21.9 0.4
BsR 7.0 14.5
WAR 8.6 11.5
Obviously, they are very different players. Upton swings the bigger bat and hits with power; he’s also been more effective as a base runner. Span, on the other hand, has a higher on-base percentage and, at least according to the advanced fielding metrics, is the superior outfielder. Span has lost significant time due to injuries, whereas Upton has been relatively healthy. If we look at wins above replacement after normalizing for the difference in games played, they appear to be fairly equal in value—Span has averaged 3.7 wins per 150 games, compared to 3.8 for Upton.
As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noted, the Nats got a center fielder who is very similar in value, but very dissimilar as a player to Upton. Looking at expected value over the next couple of years, I think that Upton’s value should be a little higher for two reasons. First, he’s been healthier, which gives him slightly higher odds of staying healthy over the next couple of years. It’s almost impossible to predict injuries, but we do know that players with injury history do have at least somewhat higher risks of subsequent injuries than players who’ve been healthy. (We should be cautious, though – it’s just a statistical tendency, and it’s entirely possible that Span could wind up healthier than Upton.) The Nats would do well to keep Roger Bernadina around as a backup. The second factor is that Upton is six months younger than Span. It’s a small difference, but it does give Upton another slight edge.
Despite the fact that I think that the odds favor Upton playing a little better than Span, I think the Nats got the better deal, at least with respect to how Span will fit on their team and with their other plans. First, the Nats already have several right-handed power hitters who strike out a lot (Michael Morse, Ian Desmond, Ryan Zimmerman to some extent; Danny Espinosa is a switch hitter, but he definitely strikes out a lot). What they needed was an on-base guy, especially someone who could lead off. Second, as a left-handed hitter, Span will help make the lineup more balanced in handedness and make it easier for Davey Johnson to manage the matchups. Third, Span’s contract for two guaranteed seasons in 2013 and 2014, with a team option for 2015, gives the Nats more flexibility in future roster construction. In particular, if prospect Brian Goodwin develops, he could be a candidate to take over in center field in a couple of years. The Braves, on the other hand, with a 5-year contract for Upton, face the prospect of declining skills in the last couple of years under the contract. Finally, it goes without saying that the Nats got a lot more value for their money (two years for $11.25 million with the option for the third year costing $9 million, versus Upton’s $75.25 million over five years). While I don’t have any idea what the Nats’ overall salary budget is, we do have to acknowledge that every team has a budget, and saving money on Span should give them more money to work with, for example, to obtain a fifth starter.
Overall, I really liked this trade.
I haven’t done one of these posts for quite a well, so please pardon me if some of these links are a bit long in the tooth. Here are a few links I’d like to remember from the last half of the Nats’ 2012 season and from their first post-season.
- Stephen Strasburg‘s shutdown was the story of the year, endlessly debated in every forum. I don’t want to remember most of what was written, but my favorite piece was written by sabermetric expert Tangotiger, describing a plan under which Strasburg could have made it to the post-season by pitching once a week on Saturdays. Of course, maybe the reason I liked it so much is that it’s eerily similar to one of my own posts on the subject.
- Adam LaRoche was one of the team’s pleasant surprises this season. Jack Moore of FanGraphs wrote an article discussing LaRoche’s emergence as a power hitter.
- Another pleasant surprise was Gio Gonzalez—while he performed well in Oakland, most of us really weren’t prepared for a performance that was deserving of a third place finish in the Cy Young Award vote. Michael Barr of FanGraphs describes a change in Gio’s approach that led to greater success in Washington.
- Joe Posnanski is my favorite sportswriter, and he did a really nice piece on Davey Johnson.
- Also, Joe’s description of Molina taking a pitch on Drew Storen‘s two-strike slider in Game Five of the NLDS is priceless, although we Nats fans hate to be reminded of that game.
- Finally, here are some video links I’d like to remember. Roger Bernadina‘s fantastic catch in Houston saved the game for the Nationals.
- “You can’t run on Bryce Harper” was Charlie Slowes’ call on this throw to nail Greg Dobbs at home plate.
- Finally, we conclude with the greatest play in Washington Nationals’ history, Jayson Werth‘s walk-off homer in Game Four of the NLDS.
Last winter, Mike Rizzo filled the Nats’ need for a number-two starter by trading several top prospects for Gio Gonzalez. With Edwin Jackson‘s departure as a free agent, can we expect Rizzo to fill his spot in the rotation with a similar trade? Let’s see if we can identify some potential trade targets.
I set up a few constraints for myself.
First, I limited my list to pitchers on teams that are rebuilding—specifically the 12 teams that had 76 or fewer wins last season. Teams that think they will be competitive almost never think they have enough starting pitching and are unlikely to trade away a good starter.
Second, I looked for pitchers who are still relatively young—pitchers 29 and younger who are still cost controlled. These guys fit the profile of last year’s trades for Gio Gonzalez (age 26 last season) and the Reds’ acquisition of Mat Latos (age 24). These are guys who can be held onto and are part of a long-term plan. In an upcoming post on free agent pitchers I’ll also talk about a few older pitchers who might be available via trade.
Third, I limited my search to pitchers who are pretty good. If the Nats are going to let Jackson go, they presumably think they can replace him with someone who’s at least as good (unless it’s just a pure salary dump). So I’m focusing on pitchers who are arguably as good or better than Jackson.
Finally, I only looked for pitchers who are established starters. I don’t know enough about the market for prospects to comment, and the Nats need someone who can move into a pennant-winning rotation.
Here’s what I came up – a list of guys who might be available via trade (but then again, might not be). The goal here is to figure out who’s out there, not to propose any specific trades. I’ll start at the top, giving statistics for the last three seasons (2010–12):
1. Felix Hernandez (age 27 next season, 2.92 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 715 IP)
Contract: Two seasons remaining at $39.5 million – free agent in 2015
Health issues: None
He’s one of the five best pitchers in baseball. He would cost a fortune. The Mariners GM recently said, “Think I’ll carry around a recording: ‘I am not trading Felix Hernandez.” But unless the Mariners look like they’re going to start winning, the rumors aren’t going away.
2. Josh Johnson (age 29, 2.87 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 8.4 K/9, 435 IP)
Contract: One season remaining at $13.75 million – free agent in 2014
Health issues: Missed most of 2011 season due to shoulder inflamation
More of a short-term rental than a long-term solution
3. Wade Miley (age 26, 3.48 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 6.7 K/9, 225 IP)
Contract: Pre-arbitration – free agent in 2018
Health issues: None
I’ve just included him on this list because he meets my criteria – I don’t think there’s any chance that the Diamondbacks would consider trading their Rookie of the Year finalist.
4. Brandon Morrow (age 28, 4.16 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 9.8 K/9, 450 IP)
Contract: Two seasons at $16 million with a team option ($10 million) for 2015
Health issues: Type 1 diabetes; on 60-day disabled list in 2012 with oblique strain
In addition to the health issues, we also note that his strikeout rate dropped to 7.8 last season. Trading for him would be taking a gamble.
5. Jon Lester (age 29, 3.85 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 605 IP)
Contract: One season at $11.6 million with a team option ($13 million) for 2014
Health issues: Lymphoma successfully treated in 2006–07
He struggled last season, with his strikeout rate down to 7.3 and a career-high 25 home runs allowed. His fastball velocity has been declining, which may be a reason to stay away from him. Trading for him would be gambling that he could return to his 2008–10 performance level.
6. Jon Niese (age 26, 3.94 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 7.6 K/9, 521 IP)
Contract: Four seasons at $24 million with 2 team option years ($10 million and $11 million)
Health issues: None
For what it’s worth, baseball-reference.com lists Gio Gonzalez as his fourth-most similar pitcher through age 25 – though, frankly, I don’t see that much similarity. Still, he’s a fine young pitcher who could get better.
7. Matt Garza (age 29, 3.68 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 7.9 K/9, 505 IP)
Contract: Third year of arbitration (paid $9.5 million in 2012); eligible for free agency in 2014
Health issues: Shutdown in the last half of 2012 due to a “stress reaction” in his right elbow
I recall that the Nats were once interested in pursuing Garza before he was traded to the Cubs. As he approaches free agency, his value has gone down.
8. Felipe Paulino (age 29, 3.91 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 8.5 K/9, 244 IP)
Contract: Arbitration eligible; $1.9 million in 2012; Free agent in 2015
Health issues: Missed more than half of 2012 season due to torn UCL
It’s a stretch to say that Paulino is arguably better than Jackson, but maybe if you give a lot of weight to strikeouts and FIP. He clearly has talent but still hasn’t established himself as a solid MLB starting pitcher.
That’s pretty much it for young pitchers on rebuilding teams that might be considered an improvement on Jackson. I didn’t find any hot trade targets similar to last season’s Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos. In fact, Jon Niese is the only pitcher on this list that’s remotely in the same ballpark. Josh Johnson or Matt Garza might be available, but they’d be one-year rentals. Lester, Morrow, or Paulino would be gambles, and I don’t see that the Nats are in a position where they ought to be gambling. Or maybe Rizzo could stun all of us by trading for King Felix!
Ouch!
That’s all. Ouch!
And, as they used to say in Brooklyn, “Wait ’til next year.”
Games like this one are why I love baseball.
Normally, I’m a big advocate of pitchers throwing strikes. But it’s interesting that the starters who were throwing strikes, Jordan Zimmermann and Edwin Jackson, were hammered, whereas Gio Gonzalez and Ross Detwiler were missing the zone quite a bit, but were also missing bats. I wonder if Zimmermann might be more successful if he wasn’t quite so consistent and left the batter with a bit more uncertainty.
Although this game won’t quiet the Stephen Strasburg shutdown skeptics, I really don’t think we could have asked for a better game from Strasburg than what Detwiler delivered this afternoon.
I really liked Davey Johnson‘s decision to bring Zimmermann in to pitch the seventh. I think the Cardinals were getting a little too used to the back of our bullpen. JZimm pitched brilliantly.
While it won’t be remembered in the same way as Jayson Werth‘s walk off home run will be, Ian Desmond‘s diving catch to end the top of the ninth was almost as critical to the Nats’ win. If he’d missed the catch, Kozma would have scored and put the Cardinals ahead. It was played a bit awkwardly, but thankfully he caught it.
This was an evening that will be long remembered, especially if the Nats can win again tomorrow. I can’t wait for tomorrow night!
It was a beautiful day for baseball – certainly better conditions than most of the other post-season games I’ve seen this year. It was great to see the stadium packed and the rally towels whirling. Too bad we didn’t have the chance to see them very often during the game.
It was a pleasure to have Bob Costas and Jim Kaat doing the broadcast on MLB – certainly an improvement on TBS.
All season, Edwin Jackson has struggled the first time through the lineup, with opponents hitting .263/.322/.462 the first time through, versus .230/.284/.396 after the first time. His struggles usually came in the first inning, but this time it was more in the second. He was simply missing his spots and getting his fastball over the heart of the plate. The Cards don’t miss those.
While it’s true that Jim Joyce missed the call at first on Danny Espinosa‘s bunt attempt in the second, it’s the second game in a row where I’ve wondered why Espy is bunting with the Nationals significantly behind. It suggests that he may not be feeling comfortable swinging away, especially from the left side.
Although the game looked like a blowout from the score, I think the actual play was much more competitive. The Nats left 11 runners on base – they didn’t have a problem getting runners on base. Their problem was stringing together the hits to score them. It certainly felt competitive as late as the bottom of the fifth, when Michael Morse batted as the potential tying run with the bases loaded and two outs, flying out to end the inning. Hats off to Carpenter on a well pitched game.
For the third game in a row, Craig Stammen has struggled in relief. I think I would have yanked him after his second batter, though he did manage to get out of the inning giving up one run. Christian Garcia and Ryan Mattheus also struggled, though Drew Storen did pitch well.
While the Cards have to be considered the favorites in game four, I don’t think it’s as lopsided as most commentators have suggested. The Nats have faced Lohse twice in the last six weeks, and both times have hit well against him. (Of course, Ross Detwiler was also lit up by the Cardinals in his last appearance, but at least he’s only faced 16 batters. His main problem was giving up five walks – wildness is a potentially solvable problem.
This was one of those games we’d all like to forget about and move on. The Cardinals have the type of offense where this type of game is always a risk – in seven regular season games, the Nats gave up 10 or more runs in three of them.
None of the Nats pitchers looked sharp. They were leaving stuff over the plate. Jordan Zimmermann tends to keep the ball in the strike zone, which is generally an advantage (since he gives up few walks), but the Cardinals were able to take advantage and hammer his pitches. He seemed to be keeping stuff up in the zone, and when he missed his spots, they were ready to hit it. I was surprised to see Davey Johnson call on Craig Stammen again – he didn’t look sharp yesterday and was no better today. At least Christian Garcia had good stuff, but he was unusually wild too, walking two batters.
While most commentary has seen the extra game played by the wild card teams as a disadvantage, I can see that there’s also a sense in which the extra days off is a disadvantage for the division winners, as pitchers (especially) struggle to find the zone after the extra days off. The extra adrenaline from playing in the post season is probably also a factor.
The bottom line from today’s game is that the Nats were simply outplayed. The pitchers didn’t have good command; they made errors in the field and—in the case of Bryce Harper—on the base paths; and the batters struggled a bit.
The first game win is especially important now, as the series returns to Washington with the Nats still in a good position to win. But to do so, they can’t afford another game played like today’s.
Nats Noodles 