July was the month when the Nats’ bats came alive—they ranked second in the NL in runs scored. The pitching, on the other hand, was more of a mixed bag as the starters continued to be solid, but the relievers ranked only 12th in the league in RE24 (a measure of runs attributable to a pitcher that is more accurate than earned runs).
The month began with an 8–4 victory in Atlanta. Returning to Washington, the Nats swept the NL West-leading Giants over the Independence Day holiday, but then lost two of three against the Rockies before the All-Star break. The team was represented at the midsummer classic by Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Bryce Harper, with Ian Desmond skipping the game to rest his oblique strain.
After the break, the Nats split a four-game series against the Marlins in Miami. Returning home, they won two of three against the Mets, then split a four-game series with the Braves. The first game of the Braves series was traumatic, when the Nats blew a nine-run lead as the bullpen imploded, but the Nats came back to win the last two games.
Going on the road, the Nats swept a three game series against the Mets, then won three of four against the Brewers. The month ended at home with an 8–0 loss to the Phillies, with Strasburg pitching the worst start of his young career. The Nats finished July in first place, 2-1/2 games ahead of the Braves (who were also red hot during July). According to coolstandings.com, the Nats’ playoff odds were 87.3%.
Record:
17–9 (.654)
Pythagorean Record:
16–10 (5.08 R/G – 3.92 RA/G)
MVP for July:
Ryan Zimmerman (.366/.434/.752, 25 G, 113 PA, 10 HR, 26 R, 24 RBI, 2.1 fWAR, 1.33 WPA, 16.13 RE24). He led the NL in slugging, runs, RBIs, and fWAR for the month.
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Jordan Zimmermann (4–0, 1.22 R/9, 6 G, 37 IP, 7.5 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 11.25 RE24, 1.9 rWAR). Zimmermann led the majors in R/9 and RE24 for the month and was named the NL Pitcher of the Month.
Most valuable reliever:
The last two awards were easy, but this one is tough—I’m tempted to throw up my hands and say that none of the relievers deserve the award. But I’ll reluctantly give it to Tom Gorzelanny (1-1, 3.27 R/9, 7 G, 11 IP, 6.5 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 7.4 H/9, 1.68 RE24, –0.05 WPA, 0 of 2 inherited runner scored, 3 shutdowns, 1 meltdown).
Best start this month:
Stephen Strasburg (July 25, 5–2 win over the Mets in New York). Strasburg went 7 innings and got the win, giving up 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, getting 11 K and a game score of 76.
Worst start:
Gio Gonzalez (July 19, 9–5 loss to the Mets at home, 3-1/3 IP, 6 H, 2 HR, 6 R, 3 BB, 2 K, game score of 23). Strasburg is a close runner up with his July 31 6-run, 4 IP outing against the Phillies (game score of 24).
Best shutdown:
Mike Gonzalez (July 8, 4–3 loss to the Rockies at home). I guess this is symptomatic of the sorry state of the bullpen this month that the best shutdown wasn’t even that good. Gonzalez relieved Sean Burnett in the top of the eighth with no outs, runners on first and third and a 3–2 lead. He immediately threw a wild pitch and allowed the tying run to score. But he then got three struck out Carlos Gonzalez, Tyler Colvin, and Todd Helton to get out of the inning (Win probability added .145). The next inning, Tyler Clippard gave up the lead and the Nats lost.
Worst meltdown:
Tyler Clippard (July 17, 5–4 win over the Mets at home) entered in the top of the ninth with a 2–0 lead, then gave up singles to Josh Thole and David Wright, followed by a home run to Jordany Valdespin, before finally getting out of the inning with the Nats trailing 3–2 (Win probability added –.761). Nats tied it in the bottom of the ninth, and I’ll tell the rest of the story in the next entry.
Clutch hit:
Bryce Harper (July 17, 5–4 win over the Mets at home). In the top of the tenth, the Mets took a 4–3 lead. In the bottom of the inning, with Jhonatan Solano on second and one out, Harper tripled to tie the game (Win proability added .558). Then both Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond were intentionally walked to load the bases, and Adam LaRoche reached on a fielder’s choice, with Harper out at home. Finally, Pedro Beato uncorked a walk-off wild pitch, with Zimmerman coming home to score the winning run.
Choke:
Tyler Moore (July 17, same game) came up in the bottom of the ninth with one out, the Nats down 3–2, and runners on first and third and struck out (WPA –.257). All was not lost, as the next batter, Danny Espinosa, singled to tie the game and send it to extra innings.
I watched more of this year’s All-Star Game than I have in years. First I had to watch until Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg had their chance to pitch. Then I had to see Bryce Harper get into the game. I had to walk the dog, so I missed seeing him lose the fly ball in the lights, but when I got back I wanted to see his next at bat. I wound up watching almost the entire game.
It was fun too—more fun than I remember past all-star games being. I’ve been a baseball fan for about 50 years now, and I’ve watched all-star games for about that long. As Joe Posnanski wrote, we used to watch the all-star game because it was the only real chance to see the stars. In the early sixties, my recollection is that our family’s black-and-white TV picked up four VHF channels—the three networks and one independent station—and other than the World Series and the all-star game, there were maybe 10 games broadcast each season. Because of blackout rules, home games were never broadcast, and we’d be able to see a road games maybe once every couple of weeks. Following baseball meant listening to the radio and reading the story in the next morning’s newspaper. The all-star game was literally the only chance we had to see the star players from the other league (and we didn’t see the stars from other teams in our own league that often either).
Now, of course, we can see the stars every day—ESPN, MLB tv, MASN, and games on the several hundred other stations we now have instant access to. So seeing the stars isn’t the draw that it once was.
What hasn’t changed in the 50 years I’ve been watching them, though, is that the games themselves usually aren’t very good. With their huge rosters, the efforts made to give everyone a chance to play, and the obvious fact that no one seems that interested in winning, the games just don’t carry the same interest as even a game between the Astros and the Cubs. Posnanski’s proposed solution is to “celebrate the fact that the game doesn’t mean anything” by trying out all sorts of gimmicks and new ideas. My solution goes the other direction. Let’s try making the games more like real baseball.
I see the need for three key changes for that to happen:
1. The rosters need to be much smaller (I’ll say just how small later) so that player substitutions seem more natural and less contrived.
2. Incentives need to be created for players (and fans) to care about winning the thing. For the World Series, for example, although incentives wouldn’t seem to be needed, the players have both financial incentives (a share of the purse) and nonfinancial (wearing the ring). The military is really good at nonfinancial incentives—maybe players could wear a star on their uniform for each all-star game they’ve won. It would give the announcers something to mention on their closeup shots and would generally get people talking about winning (not just playing in) the all-star games.
3. Perhaps my most radical idea is that the game should be expanded to a three-game series. This would have several advantages. The roster substitutions would no longer be forced by the need to get everyone into a single game. Baseball fans intuitively know that any single game is a crapshoot, and the three-game series is the main-stay of the baseball season. Unlike a post-season series, they’d need to play all three games, but incentives could still be maintained by giving extra financial and nonfinancial incentives for sweeping the series. I’d recommend holding the three games in three separate stadiums, but keep the travel times down by playing them in cities that are close to each other. For example, they could be played in Washington-Baltimore-Philadelphia one year, and in Yankee Stadium, Citi Field, and Fenway in another year. Each stadium would host an all-star game roughly every ten years, which would give a lot more fans a chance to attend the games.
Of course, a three-game series might require a longer all-star break, but not that much longer. Currently, the break lasts from Monday through Thursday. Suppose the three-game all-star series were played on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. For games in the same region, play could resume on Friday, the same as now. For teams playing on the other side of the country, they would need to play a Saturday-Sunday-Monday series to allow for travel time on Friday. I don’t see a major effect on the schedule.
How big would the roster be? I’d like to see a distinction between starting pitchers and relievers, but I recognize that teams wouldn’t want their starters to pitch a full outing for an all-star game. My preferred option would be to have two starters, each with a pitch count limit of 65 pitches. That would be three to four innings, and a pair of starters would be expected to share a typical start of roughly seven innings. If teams balked at that, we could go with three starters each with a pitch limit of 45 pitches—roughly once through the order for each pitcher. I’d allow for seven relief pitchers, but they’d be true relievers to keep the distinction between starters and relievers. And then maybe five bench players (an extra catcher, a couple of pinch hitters, and a couple of defensive substitutes or platoon players). Basically, I’d like the bench and bullpen to look as much as possible like a regular team’s (except better, of course). If we went with three starters per game (nine altogether), each team’s roster would need to be about 30 players—16 pitchers and 14 position players
With a three-game series played like actual baseball games, I think fans would start following and rooting for the teams. It’s at least worth trying.
Due to the holiday, I’m a bit late with this month’s review. All statistics refer to the month of June.
In June, as Michael Morse returned from the disabled list, the Nats’ offense picked up some steam, advancing from tepid to luke warm. Meanwhile, the pitching stayed hot, keeping the Nats in many games where the offense scratched and struggled.
The month began with a short home stand, with the Nats splitting a pair against the Braves, then winning two of three against the Mets. Next came a road trip for interleague play, and the Nats swept both the Red Sox and the Blue Jays. With those sweeps came national media attention and the idea took hold that this year’s team had a legitimate aspiration for a divisional title and post-season success.
Some air was let out of the Nats’ balloon during the ensuing home stand, when they lost four in a row—swept by the Yankees and another loss to the Rays—before winning the last two games against the Rays. Ending the month on the road, the Nats lost two of three to the Orioles, finishing their interleague play against the tough AL East with a 10–8 record, while their divisional rivals other than the Mets recorded losing records in interleague play.
With the road trip moving on to Denver, the Nats split four games against the Rockies and ended the month splitting the first two games played in Atlanta. The Nats finished June in first place in the NL East, 2-1/2 games ahead of the Mets, and according to coolstandings.com, their playoff odds were 66.7%.
Record:
15–11 (.577)
Pythagorean Record:
15–11 (4.46 R/G – 3.73 RA/G)
MVP for June:
Ian Desmond (.301/.333/.553, 26 G, 108 PA, 5 HR, 11 R, 20 RBI, 1.2 fWAR, 1.64 WPA, 6.34 RE24). Honorable mention goes to Tyler Moore (.425/.521/.800, 1.0 fWAR in 48 PA, mostly as a platoon player).
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Jordan Zimmermann (1–1, 3.00 R/9, 5 G, 33 IP, 5.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 6.29 RE24). Zimmermann was a model of consistency, going 6–7–6–7–7 innings with 2–3–3–2–1 runs allowed in his five starts. While Stephen Strasburg has flashier fielding-independent numbers, for the monthly awards I generally rely more on runs prevented, where steady Zimmermann slightly edged out Strasburg.
Most valuable reliever:
Tyler Clippard (0-0, 0.00 R/9, 12 G, 10 saves, 11-2/3 IP, 9.3 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.5 H/9, 6.04 RE24, 1.32 WPA, 0 of 1 inherited runner scored, 11 shutdowns, 0 meltdown) wins the award for the second month in a row. That’s about as it gets for a relief ace.
Best start this month:
Stephen Strasburg (June 2, 2–0 win over the Braves at home). Strasburg went 7 innings and got the win, giving up 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, getting 9 K and a game score of 78.
Worst start:
Edwin Jackson (June 28, 11–10 loss to the Rockies in Denver, 3 IP, 10 H, 1 HR, 8 R, 2 BB, 5 K, game score of 10). Jackson wasn’t charged with the loss, as the Nats came back to tie it before losing in the 11th inning.
Best shutdown:
Craig Stammen (June 16, 5–3 loss to the Yankees at home) pitched three scoreless, hitless innings in the 11th, 12th, and 13th innings of a 3–3 tie. The only Yanks who reached base while Stammen was on the mound were Teixeira on an error and Cano on an intentional walk (Win probability added .370). In the 14th inning, Brad Lidge, in his final game as a Nat, gave up the decisive runs to the Yankees.
Worst meltdown:
Sean Burnett (June 24, 2–1 loss to the Orioles in Baltimore) entered in the bottom of the eighth with a 1–0 lead, and promptly gave up a gave up a single to Jones and a home run (and the lead) to Wieters. After getting a fly out, he walked Pearce and then was pulled for Mattheus before any more damage could be done. (Win probability added –.550)
Clutch hit:
Roger Bernadina (June 10, 4–3 win over the Red Sox in Boston) came up with two outs in the top of the ninth, a tie game 3–3, and Bryce Harper on first. The Shark hit a double to score Harper and give the Nats the go-ahead run for the final game of the series sweep. (WPA .389)
Choke:
Ryan Zimmerman (June 3, 3–2 loss to the Braves at homes) came up in the bottom of the eighth, the Nats down by one, runners on first and second, and no outs. He grounded into a rally-killing double play. (WPA –.266)
If a team sends its starting pitchers out all year in a strict 5-man rotation, the top two pitchers will get 33 starts. Thus, it’s not surprising that on most teams, the pitcher with the most starts in a season most often has 33. Stephen Strasburg has just completed his 33rd career start, so he now has a full season’s worth of starts under his belt. Let’s look at his career statistics to see what a full season of Strasburg looks like.
His record is 15–7 in 185 innings, with an ERA of 2.68. In 2011 his ERA would have ranked fourth in the NL (behind Kershaw, Halladay, and Lee), and sixth in the majors (behind AL pitchers Verlander and Weaver). In 2010, he again would have ranked fourth in the NL (behind Johnson, Wainwright, and Halladay), and sixth in the majors (behind ALers Hernandez and Buchholz).
Strasburg’s 238 strikeouts would have tied for second in the NL and third in the majors in 2011 (tied with Lee and behind Verlander’s 250 and Kershaw’s 248). In 2010, 238 strikeouts would have led the majors. His 5.17 K/BB ratio would have ranked third in the NL and fourth in the majors in 2011 (behind Halladay, Haren, and Lee), and would have ranked third in both the NL and the majors in 2010 (behind Lee and Halladay). Strasburg’s fielding-independent pitching (FIP) of 2.07 would have led the majors in both seasons, ahead of Halladay’s 2.20 in 2011 and Johnson’s 2.41 in 2010. His xFIP of 2.35 would also have easily led the majors in both seasons.
Strasburg has done well at avoiding the long ball. His 11 career home runs would have tied for fourth lowest among qualified pitchers in the majors in 2011 and would have been ninth lowest in 2012.
Despite his impressive statistics, his relatively light workload would have prevented him from being a strong Cy Young Award candidate. He averaged 5-2/3 innings per start, compared to about 7 innings per start for the typical ace pitcher.
Of his 33 starts, only four could be considered even mildly disappointing, with game scores lower than 45. His worst start came on August 10, 2010 against the Marlins (game score of 29), when he allowed six runs in 4-1/3 innings. This season his disappointing starts came on May 15 against the Padres (four runs in 4 innings, game score of 35), on May 26 against Atlanta (four runs in 5 innings, game score of 41), and Saturday’s heat-affected start in Atlanta (three runs in 3 innings, game score of 43). In contrast, he’s had 18 starts with game scores above 60, including six with game scores in excess of 70.
I’m really looking forward to seeing Strasburg in 2013, when he’ll be allowed to pitch a full season and presumably will stretch into longer outings per start.
Sports Illustrated publishes weekly power rankings, and last week’s ratings featured a surprise—the Nats were ranked first in the National League and second in MLB. This was surprising because the previous week they’d been ranked sixth, and during the intervening week (May 14–20) they had gone 3–4 against the Padres, Pirates, and Orioles, giving no indication that they deserved to move up.
The reason, of course, was a change in methodology, specifically for the measurement of team defense. SI‘s explanation was that their power rankings were based on Fangraph’s WAR, but the WAR statistics for fielding, which are based on ultimate zone ratings (UZR) weren’t able to adequately adjust for team fielding. In particular, the UZR is based on standard assumptions about where fielders are positioned. With the growing use of defensive shifts, they found that some teams were successful getting defensive outs even though the team didn’t show up well according to UZR.
SI announced that they had replaced the defensive component of WAR with a measure based on “the rate at which teams turn balls in play into outs.” Those of us who are familiar with the old Bill James Baseball Abstracts recognize this statistic as the defensive efficiency rating” or DER.
I have to say that I too had been puzzled by the difference between defensive WAR (and the UZR on which it’s based) and DER. Their fielding WAR through May 26 is a below average –2.4, while their DER of .730 is much better than the major league average (.711) and ranks sixth among major league teams.
DER, of course, doesn’t measure everything on defense, and there is certainly a case that it leads to an overrating of the Nationals. For example, it omits errors (where the Nats have been about average, with a .985 fielding average) and double plays (where the Nats have been far below average, with only 73 double plays turned, though it’s unclear how much that late rate is due to their power pitching staff).
I guess what I take from this is that the measurement of fielding is still a bit fuzzy compared with what’s been accomplished with batting and pitching. In the not-too-distant future, I expect we’ll have measures that will decompose fielding into positioning and reaction to the batted ball. Then, maybe we’ll get fielding statistics that are reliable enough to be informative as the season goes along. For now, I think the operative warning for all fielding statistics continues to be caveat emptor.
It’s been a while since I’ve done one of these. As usual, “links to remember” are to articles and video clips that I consider especially memorable.
- The Nationals’ starting pitching has been one of the biggest stories of the season so far. Rob Neyer of Baseball Nation asks if the Nats’ pitching is believable.
- Tom Boswell of the Washington Post wrote a couple of nice articles on Bryce Harper‘s call-up—one on April 27, the day that his call-up was announced, and another on May 1 after his first couple of games.
- I have lots of video clips to link to. Let’s start with a great play by Ian Desmond against the Reds on April 13.
- On April 15, Ryan Zimmerman robbed Ryan Ludwick of extra bases.
- In his second major league game on April 29, Harper made the highlight reels with this leaping catch against the Dodgers.
- Speaking of Harper, I can’t omit his steal of home against Cole Hamels and the Phillies on May 6.
- I’ll end this with one of the funniest clips I’ve seen. The setting is the end of a brief rain delay against the Padres on May 15.
Bryce Harper has now passed 100 plate appearances, so we are starting to get a large enough sample to look at his approach at the plate. With 103 plate appearances in his first 24 games, he sports a batting line of .267/.350/.467, all of which are above the major league averages of .250/.317/.397. His walk rate (10.7%) and strikeout rate (17.5%) are also better than the major league averages (8.4 and 19.5). Although his strikeout rate is not really low, it’s actually the lowest of any of the Nats’ regulars, almost all of whom carry above-average strikeout rates.
When we look at his plate approach, however, his statistics start to stand out more. His plate approach has to be described as aggressive—he swings at 53% of the pitches he sees, ranking 20th among 241 major leaguers with at least 100 plate appearances. For pitches within the zone, he swings 76.5% of the time (ranking 10th) and for pitches outside the zone, he swings 37% of the time (ranking 27th).
In aggressiveness, his statistics are similar to the Nats’ strikeout kings, Rick Ankiel and Danny Espinosa. What makes the results different? When Harper swings at pitches outside the zone, he’s more likely to make contact. His contact rate for pitches outside the zone is 70.4%, better than the major league average of 67.1%. In contrast, Ankiel (58.6%) and Espinosa (55.9%) are well below average.
In terms of pitch types, Harper’s getting many fewer fastballs (44.7%) than the average major leaguer (57.4%). That appears to be a response to his success with hitting fastballs—a measure of his success against fastballs, linear weights, shows a rate of 2.31 per 100 pitches, which ranks 17th of 241 major leaguers. He’s also been successful against curve balls (2.80), but has struggled against sliders (–3.08). Not surprisingly, opposing teams have responded by pitching more sliders (18.1% compared to the average of 14.2) and changeups (14.4% versus 10.5).
While Harper has made a lot of contact, it hasn’t always been good contact. His line drive rate of 15.3% is below average (20.6%), and his infield fly rate of 16.7% is well above average (10.3). His HR/FB rate of 6.7% is also below average (10.6).
While it has to be emphasized that 103 plate appearances is a ridiculously small sample, I think some characteristics are becoming apparent. He’s an aggressive swinger, but he doesn’t look lost, as Espinosa and Ankiel sometime do. He’s a smart young hitter, so if he can learn to lay off of some of the pitches outside the zone, he may start making better contact and getting better results. He’s already a feared hitter, and the word is out there not to throw him fastballs in the zone. How well he adapts to a steady diet of sliders and changeups is going to determine how he’ll do as a major league hitter. But there’s a lot in these statistics that’s encouraging.
The Nats finished April with a 14–8 record, their best monthly winnng percentage since June 2005 when they went 20–6. But a closer look at the statistics reveals that this month’s performance may have been more impressive than 2005’s memorable run. That June run was partly fueled by luck—a 9–1 record in one-run games and a run differential that should have been consistent with a 15–11 record. In contrast, this April’s run was only boosted a little by Pythagorean luck, with the Nats going 6–5 in one-run games and finishing the month with a 13–9 Pythagorean record.
The 2012 season began auspiciously with a 4–2 road trip against the Cubs and the Mets. The Nats followed that up with an 8–2 home stand against Reds, Astros, and Marlins. They ended the month with a road trip to California, where they took the first two from the Padres before losing the Padres’ finale and all three games against the Dodgers.
Record:
14–8 (.636)
Pythagorean Record:
13–9 (3.36 R/G – 2.68 RA/G)
MVP for April:
Adam LaRoche (.329/.415/.549, 22 G, 94 PA, 4 HR, 9 R, 17 RBI, 1.2 fWAR, 1.43 WPA, 10.51 RE24) has carried the Nats’ offense so far.
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Stephen Strasburg (2–0, 1.13 R/9, 5 G, 32 IP, 9.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 10.33 RE24) wins the honor, with honorable mention going to Jordan Zimmermann (1.67 R/9) and Gio Gonzalez (1.82 R/9).
Most valuable reliever:
Sean Burnett (0-0, 0.00 R/9, 5 G, 8-1/3 IP, 13.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.11 RE24, 1 of 6 inherited runners scored, 3 shutdowns, 0 meltdown)
Best start this month:
Edwin Jackson (April 14, 4–1 win over the Reds at home, 9-inning complete game, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K, game score of 87) wins, while honorable mention goes to Gonzalez’s 7-shutout inning performance in the home opener two days earlier (game score of 80).
Worst start:
Gio Gonzalez (April 7, 7–4 win over the Cubs in Chicago, 3-2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 BB, 6 K, game score of 34) got off to a rocky start, but the Nats came back to win and Gio’s been superb since.
Best shutdown:
Tom Gorzelanny (April 13, 2–1 win over the Reds at home) pitched two scoreless innings in the 11th and 12th with a 1–1 tie. He gave up a double and two walks, but didn’t allow any of them to score. (Win probability added .246)
Worst meltdown:
Henry Rodríguez (April 28, 4–3 loss to the Dodgers in Los Angeles) spoiled Bryce Harper‘s debut game by blowing the save. Entering in the top of the ninth with a 3–1 lead, Henry allowed two singles, a double, and threw three wild pitches, allowing two runs to score. He left the game with two outs, runners on first and third, and the game tied (WPA –.553). The next inning, Matt Kemp’s home run would seal the loss.
Clutch hit:
Chad Tracy (April 7, 7–4 win over the Cubs in Chicago) came in as a pinch hitter in the 8th with two outs, the bases loaded, and the Nats behind 4–3. He singled into right, scoring Ryan Zimmerman and LaRoche and giving the Nats a 5–4 lead. (WPA .456)
Choke:
Danny Espinosa (April 12, 3–2 win over the Reds at home) came up in the bottom of the ninth with one out, the bases loaded, and the score tied 2–2, and grounded into a double play that sent the game into extra innings (WPA –.327). The Nats went on to win in the 10th on a wild pitch that scored Zimmerman.
Bryce Harper is expected to make his MLB debut tonight in Los Angeles, where the Nats are facing the Dodgers. The news was a bit of a surprise, since Harper was hitting an unimpressive .250/.333/.375 in only twenty AAA games for Syracuse.
For Harper and his family, the timing of his debut (a Saturday evening) and its location (Dodgers Stadium, only a few hours drive from his hometown of Las Vegas) are especially fortuitous—I imagine he’ll have a significant crowd of family and friends attending.
How long Harper will stick depends, of course, on how well he plays. If he starts 1 for 40, for example, he would have a quick return trip to upstate New York. My guess, though, is that he’ll stick for a while. Although Ryan Zimmerman‘s trip to the DL is the proximate cause for his promotion, in order to stay he really only needs to play better than Xavier Nady and/or Mark DeRosa. The more interesting decision point is likely to come when Michael Morse returns, which could be a couple of months away.
A lot of the discussion about Harper’s promotion has been about its potential cost to the team in terms of its impact on his Super Two arbitration status. Although Super Two is potentially costly, I don’t think it should be decisive for a team with relatively deep pockets. His promotion could be a good business move for the Lerners, even if they risk paying more in arbitration. If he does well with the Nats, it might help push the Nats into post-season contention. If so, the team could easily recoup the cost in extra ticket sales and other revenue. If he doesn’t do well, he’ll return to the Chiefs for further development and lose his Super Two status.
Another factor that Mike Rizzo and the Lerners may be considering is that his early promotion may help build good will with the player and improve their chances of eventually signing him to an extension. Moderate-cost extensions of players who are eligible for arbitration or free agency have become the new market inefficiency—a way for teams to obtain talent at below-market rates and gain a competitive edge. These extensions aren’t always good deals for the teams, but some (such as Evan Longoria’s extension with the Rays) have been great for the teams.
Finally, I want to acknowledge the role of Davey Johnson, who has repeatedly lobbied for Harper’s promotion. Johnson obviously loves to work with young talent and much of his managerial success has been built with young, hungry players. I’m sure that Harper wouldn’t have been promoted without Johnson’s strong support. I look forward to seeing if Davey can work his magic again.
Nats Noodles 