Last winter, in looking ahead to this season’s Nats, I thought I’d see a team that would feature good offense from the heart of the order and weak bats from the rest of the lineup, along with undistinguished, but passable pitching. In August, the team that I had imagined finally appeared.
Except where noted, all statistics are for the month of August only.
Record:
12–15 (.444) for August – ending the month at 63–71 (.470) for the season.
Pythagorean Record:
12–15 (3.74 R/G – 4.26 RA/G).
MVP for August:
Ryan Zimmerman (.333/.377/.562, 27 G, 114 PA, 5 HR, 15 R, 17 RBI, 155 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR). His defense allowed him to edge out Michael Morse (.333/.405/.606).
Most valuable starting pitcher:
None of the Nats’ starters had a really good month. I’m going to give the award to Jordan Zimmermann (2–2, 3.45 ERA, 5 G, 28-2/3 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9), even though he was fourth on the team in ERA for August. In this case, however, it’s illustrative of a problem with ERA—in August, 22.6% of the runs allowed by the Nats (26 of 115) were unearned. (In contrast, the major league average this season is 8.5% of all runs are unearned.) Unearned runs are not entirely the responsibility of fielders—pitchers bear at least some of the responsibility for allowing the baserunners to continue to advance and score and should be held responsible (at least in part) for unearned runs. If we look at (total) run average (including the unearned runs), Zimmermann led the staff – he also led in some of the sabermetric stats like “RE24”. So he gets the award again this month. On the other hand, his August performance was nowhere near what he did in May and June.
Most valuable reliever:
Todd Coffey (1-0, 3.38 ERA, 12 G, 10-2/3 IP, 6.8 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9, 0.56 WHIP, 0 of 4 inherited runners scored, 3 shutdowns, 0 meltdown). Tom Gorzelanny (1.80, 2 shutdowns, 1 meltdown) also received consideration; his 3-inning shutdown of the Phillies in the August 19 game that the Nats came back to win on Zim’s grand slam was especially notable.
Best start this month:
Chien-Ming Wang (August 9, 3–1 win over the Chicago Cubs in Chicago, 6 innings, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 SO, Game score of 69).
Worst start:
Liván Hernández (August 6, 15–7 loss to Colorado in Denver, 3-2/3 IP, 9 H, 9 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO, 2 HR, Game score of 11).
Best shutdown:
Tyler Clippard (August 5, 5–3 win over the Rockies in Denver). Clip was called in with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the sixth with the Nats ahead 4–3. He struck out Eric Young to end the inning. He came back to pitch a scoreless seventh and got two outs in the eighth when he allowed a single and Storen got the call for a four-out close. (Win probability added .324)
Worst meltdown:
Collin Balester (August 26, 4–3 loss to the Reds in Cincinnati). Called on to pitch the bottom of the ninth of a 3–3 tie, he started the inning with a groundout, then gave up three consecutive singles, allowing the Reds to walk off. (WPA –.360)
Clutch hit:
Ian Desmond (August 21, 5–4 win over the Phillies at home). The Nats were behind 4–3 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth when Desi stepped to the plate. With two strikes, he hit a game tying home run (WPA .489). The next inning, Jonny Gomes drove in the winning run with a walk-off hit by pitch. Honorable mention to Ryan Zimmerman for his walk-off grand slam against the Phils on August 19 (WPA .344).
Choke:
Wilson Ramos (August 17, 2–1 loss to the Reds at home). The bottom of the ninth, the Nats down by one, the bases loaded, one out, and Ramos grounds into a game-ending double play (WPA –.530).
Likely to cool off:
Todd Coffey – His batting average allowed on balls in play of .143 for August is not sustainable.
Likely to warm up:
Laynce Nix – In a bit of a slump in August with a BABIP for August of .222, which should rise if he can get healthy again.
Bryce Harper watch:
Hit .286/.368/.510 for Class AA Harrisburg in 14 games in August, before ending the month on the DL.
Stephen Strasburg watch:
He pitched five minor league rehab starts during August and is scheduled to return to the Nats and pitch on September 6.
Managers,
It’s getting late in the game, and your starter’s pitch count is getting high. It’s still a close game, you’ve got a runner on base, and your pitcher is coming to bat. Should you lift him for a pinch hitter?
Because calculating the win expectancies may be challenging even for a manager who majored in math, let me suggest that you use a simple rule of thumb. Ask yourself, “If my pitcher walks the first guy he faces in the next inning, will I lift him for a reliever?” If the answer is yes, then send in a pinch hitter now. The extra pitching value from leaving him in to face one or two or three more batters won’t be as great as the offensive value given up by having your pitcher bat in a high leverage situation.
Jim Riggleman used to get this strategy wrong, and yesterday Davey Johnson got it wrong as well.
July was a rough month for the Nats. The pitching was shaky throughout the month and several times imploded, while the offense continued to struggle. The team began the month having a plausible case for a wild card run and ended it five games below .500.
Except where noted, all statistics are for the month of July only.
Record:
11–15 (.423) for July – ending the month at 51–56 (.477) for the season.
Pythagorean Record:
10–16 (3.81 R/G – 4.73 RA/G).
MVP for July:
Tyler Clippard (0-0, 0.57 ERA, 12 G, 15-2/3 IP, 9.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 0.64 WHIP, 0 of 4 inherited runners scored, 2.61 FIP, 3.43 xFIP, 1.0 rWAR, 8 shutdowns, 1 meltdown).
Most valuable position player:
Michael Morse (.344/.400/.533, 24 G, 100 PA, 2 HR, 12 R, 13 RBI, 159 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR). Wilson Ramos (.286/.348/.508) was also a candidate.
Most valuable starting pitcher:
Yunesky Maya (1 GS, 1–0, 0.00 ERA, 5-1/3 IP). Ok, I’m being facetious, but none of the regular starters did very well this month—John Lannan had the best ERA of Nats pitchers with two or more starts with 4.18 (the NL average this season is 3.81).
Best start this month:
Jordan Zimmermann (July 10, 2–0 win over Colorado at home, 6-1/3 innings, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 SO, Game score of 71).
Worst start:
Jason Marquis (July 3, 10–2 loss to Pittsburgh at home, 1-1/3 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 0 SO, Game score of 12).
Best shutdown:
Tyler Clippard (July 20, 3–2 loss to the Astros in Houston). Clip came into the game in the bottom of the eighth with the game tied 2–2, runners on first and second, and no outs. After a sacrifice bunt advanced the runners, he got the last two outs on a foul popup and a strikeout. He then pitched a scoreless ninth, striking out two (win probability added of .380). Two innings later, the Astros scored the winning run off Todd Coffey.
Worst meltdown:
Henry Rodríguez (July 7, 10–9 loss to the Cubs in Washington). He had the distinction of giving up the go-ahead run twice. Entering in the top of the eighth with the score tied 8–8, Rodríguez gave up a two-out double to Starlin Castro followed by a run-scording single to Aramis Ramírez. In the bottom of the eighth the Nats tied it again 9–9, and Rodríguez came out to work the ninth. Giving up a single to Geovany Soto and a double to Darwin Barney, the Cubs took a 10–9 lead that they wouldn’t yield (WPA of –.516).
Clutch hit:
Danny Espinosa (July 17, 9–8 loss to the Braves in Atlanta). It was the top of the sixth, two outs, Roger Bernadina on first, and the Nats behind 7–6. Espinosa hit a home run to give the Nats the lead (WPA of .336). Alas, his clutch hit turned out be in vain as the Braves came back to tie it in the eighth and knocked in the winning run in the bottom of the ninth.
Choke:
Jayson Werth (July 9, 2–1 loss to the Rockies at home). In the bottom of the ninth with one out, runners on first and third, and the Nats down 2–1, Werth grounded into a game-ending double play (WPA of –.452). Lots of booing.
Clutch baserunning:
Jayson Werth (July 4, 5–4 win over the Cubs at home). In the bottom of the tenth, Werth walked, was advanced to second by a Liván Hernández sacrifice, stole third, and then scored the walk-off run on a wild pitch.
Likely to cool off:
Rick Ankiel – An unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .432 contributed to his July average of .327.
Likely to warm up:
Todd Coffey – His opponents’ batting average on balls in play of .405 for July also probably won’t persist.
Transactions:
Jason Marquis was traded to Arizona, and Jerry Hairston, Jr. to Milwaukee. The Nats picked up Jonny Gomes from Cincinnati—all for prospects—and the Nats released Matt Stairs.
Bryce Harper watch:
Promoted to Class AA Harrisburg on July 4 (and skipping high-A Potomac), Bryce Harper hit .238/.303/.325 in 23 games in the Eastern League.
First, I’m not that concerned about the big trade that didn’t happen—the one for the center fielder. July 31 really wasn’t the Nats’ deadline for getting this one done, and there may be some advantages to waiting. For example, I’m guessing that the Angels may be willing to shop Peter Bourjos this winter. I’ll give Mike Rizzo the benefit of the doubt and see if he can fill the center field hole over the winter.
Todd Coffey is the player I thought might be dealt, but wasn’t. I guess the market for a middle reliever with an ERA+ of 98 just isn’t that strong.
Turning to the trades that did happen, here are a few thoughts:
Unlike other commenters, I don’t think the trade for Jonny Gomes was mostly about the Type B free agent draft pick—after all, in order to get the draft pick, the Nats will have to offer Gomes arbitration and he’d have to turn them down. I’d guess that if the Nats do offer arbitration, there’s a good chance that he’ll accept it. Instead, I interpret the trade as a signal by Rizzo to Davey Johnson that he was listening and willing to support him when he said the team needed a right-handed pinch hitter. The minor leaguers the Nats gave up were marginal, so overall that was a pretty cheap and inconsequential trade.
Jerry Hairston, Jr. was traded to the Brewers for 23-year old Class AA outfielder Erik Komatsu. John Sickels of Minor League Ball rated Komatsu as a C+/C prospect and says
He has excellent strike zone judgment and is a very polished hitter, but as a tweener-type who lacks big power, he’ll likely fit best as a reserve outfielder.
Overall, that seems like a nice return for Hairston.
Jason Marquis was traded to the Diamondbacks for Class A infielder Zach Walters. John Sickels rated Walters as a C prospect, but says “an upgrade to C+ is plausible”:
A 21-year-old switch-hitter, Walters has an average throwing arm and average range, and has spent time at second base, third base, and shortstop this year. Second is his best position, but his versatility would make him an attractive roster option if he continues to hit at higher levels. He’s got doubles power and decent plate discipline, but his strikeout rate is rather high, which warns some adjustments may be needed.
While Walters seems like a decent prospect, I have to admit that I’m a bit disappointed that the Nats refused to negotiate partial or full payment of Marquis’ remaining salary. The Mets were able to get top prospect Zack Wheeler in exchange for Carlos Beltrán by offering to pay part of his remaining salary. While Marquis is obviously no Carlos Beltrán, I do think the Nats might have gotten a better prospect if they’d been willing to absorb some of Marquis’ salary. One of my biggest on-going concerns about the organization is whether (Jayson Werth‘s contract notwithstanding) they will be willing to spend enough on salaries to compete with the Phillies, Mets, and Braves.
We’re nearing the trade deadline, which means we’re at the peak the summer trade rumor season. It also means there’s lots of misinformation going around in news articles, blogs, and comments. Here are five common fallacies:
- Overvaluing our team’s players (and undervaluing the other team’s). When a fan’s been following and rooting for a team, it’s natural to become attached to the team’s players. But the simple fact of the matter is that the skills of players like Jason Marquis, Laynce Nix, and Todd Coffey are not that unique. Part of the reason that other teams may be interested in them is that they would come relatively cheaply. On the other hand, if we’re interest in buying elite, young players to fill some of our gaps, we’ll need to be willing to give up some of our own elite, young talent in exchange.
- Overlooking the traded player’s salary. Last winter I saw quite a few comments complaining that we didn’t get enough value in exchange for Josh Willingham. (In retrospect, obtaining Henry Rodríguez and Corey Brown for Willingham’s 2011 season doesn’t look bad at all.) The thing to keep in mind is that a player’s trade value should represent the surplus value—that is, the value of his expected performance minus his salary. Because Willingham was owed $6 million in salary, his surplus value simply wasn’t very large. In trading Willingham, Mike Rizzo was essentially competing against all the free agent outfielders that were on the market. All things considered, I think Rizzo did quite well with that trade.
- Paying too much attention to recent performance. We see this one all the time. Marquis’ trade value is said to have gone up because he pitched well in his last start. Carlos Beltran hit a home run, which supposedly should convince his reluctant suitors to offer their proposals. Now I’ll grant that some of baseball’s GMs aren’t exactly geniuses. Nevertheless, I’m convinced that every GM at least understands that statistics from very small samples, such as the last two or three weeks, don’t mean much. The only real information that they can learn from late-July performances is whether the player is still healthy.
- Confusing tradable with likely to be traded. Nats fans are outraged to hear that the team considers Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard to be tradable. Very few players are not tradable, in the sense that the GM will not even listen to another team’s offer. For the Nationals, my guess is that the list currently comprises Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, and Danny Espinosa, and I’ll throw in Jayson Werth because no other team would make an offer for him. Players like Storen and Clippard are tradable, but because they carry a lot of surplus value, they would only be traded if they were part of a big trade that brought a lot of value in return. For example, Jordan Zimmermann isn’t ordinarily likely to be traded, but he apparently was included in a proposed trade last winter for Zack Greinke. Ben Goessling of MASN has a nice article explaining that although Clippard and Storen are tradable, they aren’t actually likely to be traded.
- Treating rumors as reliable, disinterested information. After working in Washington for 25 years, I’ve learned that the unnamed sources for most rumors are the top people in the organization and the leaks are almost always intended to serve a strategic purpose. As far as I can tell, what’s true for politics is also true for private business and for professional sports. In some cases, it’s almost laughably easy to figure out why an organization is leaking certain rumors. For example – the Mets leak the rumor that they might be willing to trade Carlos Beltrán for Domonic Brown. Well, ‘duh’—of course they’d be willing to trade Beltrán for Brown—who wouldn’t? It seems pretty transparent that the purpose of the rumor is to signal to other teams that they’re expecting to get a lot of value for Beltrán and basically want to start the bidding at a high point. Of course, what they’re actually able to get for him may be another thing altogether. It’s not always so easy to figure out why a particular rumor was leaked (and some rumors are probably just inaccurate “noise”), but it’s best to assume that some rumors are intended to misinform rather than to inform.
It’s been a while since I posted links, so some of these may be getting a little long in the tooth. As usual, these are the links I’d like to remember.
- This article by Adam Kilgore and Dave Sheinin of The Washington Post was, in my opinion, the most insightful piece written on the resignation of Jim Riggleman.
- Speaking of Riggleman’s resignation, Joe Posnanski of SI.com wrote this article on the subject, and almost anything written by Poz is a link to remember.
- Eno Sarris of FanGraphs wants us to know that he did not write about Jordan Zimmermann and innings limits.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs ranked the top 50 players in trade value, and four of them were Nats: Ryan Zimmerman at #10, Bryce Harper at #20, Stephen Strasburg at #24, and Danny Espinosa at #48.
- It’s nearly six years late, but John Patterson receives an award from Rob Neyer of Baseball Nation honoring his 2005 season.
- John Lannan hits his his first career home run and gets a surprising reception when he returns to the dugout.
We’ve reached the point where the dimensions of a championship contending Nationals team are starting to take shape. If a few essential steps are taken over the next year and a half, the 2013 Nats could be a strong contender for a divisional title and post-season success.
Why 2013? While we see the team improving from 2011 to 2012, several key pieces won’t yet be fully in place next season. It will be Stephen Strasburg’s first season back and he’ll be on an innings limit. Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon will spend at least part of 2012 in the minors. It will be Brad Peacock’s first season in the majors, and he may need to make adjustments. While we may hope for a title run next season if we’re lucky, 2013 looks like the more reasonable target.
To construct a championship-quality team, our goal should be to have above-average regulars at each position and at least four above-average starters. Now, it’s true that most actual World Series champions wind up having below-average regulars at one or two positions. But if we set our goal to be above average at every position, we’ll be better able to handle injuries and slumps that can derail the best laid plans.
Let’s start our tour of positions with the starting pitchers. We often talk about starters as numbers one through five, but those categories can mean different things to different people. For this discussion, I’m going to give these categories concrete definitions.
Imagine ranking the roughly 150 major league starting pitchers. An “average” pitcher would be ranked between number 60 and 90. I want my top four pitchers to be better than average, so I’ll set my target for our number one starter as a pitcher ranked in the top 15. My goal for a number two pitcher would be one ranked from # 16 to 30; for number three, ranked 31 to 45, and for number four, ranked 46 to 60.
To make this even more concrete, I’ll take the 2011 records (through July 9) of all starting pitchers with at least 50 IP and rank them by xFIP (an ERA-like statistic that is fielding independent and is based on strikeouts, walks, and fly balls), a measure that for short periods, like half a season, tends to be a more accurate measure of pitching ability than ERA. With this measure, my target categories break out as follows:
Number one: xFIP < 3.10
Number two: 3.10 < xFIP < 3.43
Number three: 3.43 < xFIP < 3.54
Number four: 3.54 < xFIP < 3.70
Number five: 3.70 < xFIP < 4.05
For 2013, I’ll write in Strasburg as our number one starter. Certainly, if he returns anywhere close to his 2010 form (an xFIP of 2.04 in 68 IP), he’s an easy number one. There obviously are no guarantees (there never are), but the record of pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery is pretty good.
Jordan Zimmermann’s 2011 xFIP (3.70 before Sunday’s start) suggest that he’s the type of pitcher I’m calling a number four starter,* so I’m going to project him in that role for 2013.
*The number four ranking probably seems low after seeing him ranked among this season’s league leaders in ERA. But it’s important to note that he’s had an unusually low rate of home runs per fly ball (2.9%–that is, only four home runs in 140 fly balls). An average pitcher should expect about 10% of fly balls to be homers. It’s true that some pitchers, such as Matt Cain, are able to maintain lower HR/FB rates, and their xFIP statistics will tend to be higher than their actual ERAs. On the other hand: (1) Zimmermann’s HR/FB rate for 2011 is unusually low even compared to pitchers with low HR/FB rates—for example, Cain’s career HR/FB rate is 6.8%, compared to Zim’s 2011 rate of 2.9%, and (2) nothing in Zimmermann’s record before 2011 suggests that he has any special talent for avoiding home runs. Therefore, the most likely interpretation is that Zimmermann’s just been lucky so far this season in his home run rate and will eventually revert to giving up more home runs.
For our number three starter, I’m going to be bold and project Peacock in that role. It’s true that we don’t know yet how he’ll make the adjustment to the majors—maybe the pitches that have tricked Eastern League hitters won’t fool anyone in the majors. Still, when an AA pitcher leads all of the minor leagues in strikeouts and does it with good control, I think there’s a good chance that he has the stuff to be an above-average major league pitcher.
For our number five starter (the league average innings eater) we have several candidates. Interestingly, most of them are lefties. Tom Gorzelanny, John Lannon, and Ross Detwiler will still be under team control. Tom Milone is currently pitching very well in Syracuse, and 2010 draft pick Sammy Solis (currently with Potomac) could advance quickly. My hunch is that Milone will prove to be the best of this group, but really it could be any of them, another prospect, or, if necessary, a one- or two-year rental.
That leaves the number two slot, which is one I think we’ll probably need to fill through a trade or with a free agent. Some examples of pitchers who might fit our criteria for number two starters and who are not committed to their current team beyond 2012 include Erik Bedard, Chris Carpenter, Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, and CJ Wilson. During the 2010–11 off-season, Mike Rizzo’s top priority was obtaining an excellent starting pitcher, and it should continue to be one of his top priorities until the need is filled.
As relief pitchers, we have several live arms under team control through at least 2013—Tyler Clippard, Cole Kimball, Ryan Mattheus, Henry Rodríguez, and Drew Storen. Relief pitchers, of course, are difficult to project, and not all of these young pitchers will be good two years from now. It’s important for the Nats to maintain a continued supply, which can be met through player development, converting less successful starters to the relief role, and making trades and short-term free agent signings. As we learned from the Matt Capps–Wilson Ramos trade, relief pitchers can also serve as great trading chips in filling our other roster needs.
In my next post, I’ll look at the position players.
Nats Noodles 